David James
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China to pay huge price if it does not stop skirmishes with neighbours
Edward Luttwak
Recent incursions by the Chinese army into Indian territory in the Depsang region of Ladakh neither signify anything nor prove nothing. In fact, they are all contained. But the Chinese army must stay in the game on the western front because the navy and the air force of the country get all the eastern business.
However, with such an aggressive country around as neighbour, India cannot afford to be too calm and complacent when it comes to modernising its defence forces and replacing obsolescent equipment. Of course, India had responded to China's expanding military power by continuing to strengthen its own armed forces. Though with hesitation, it had offered its training facilities for Vietnam's new submarine fleet. We all know that Beijing has abandoned its "Peaceful Rise" and is increasingly quarrelling with its neighbours on the west as well as the east.
EVEN ROADS ARE BAD
However, at this juncture, India must clearly note the glacial pace of military procurement across the globe. What is highly worrisome is that even the roads built by the Border Roads Organisation behind possible frontlines are too narrow and too easily interruptible. One must think out of the box while building new, linear roads that are able to withstand attacks from across the border.
I must say that India will do well by not following China in its act of quarrelling: unlike Beijing, New Delhi should not fight with its neighbours. China is in the process of paralysing itself by picking fights with all its neighbours (such as Vietnam, India, Japan, Taiwan and so on).
This is a fatal mistake. It would have been fatal for any country, including the US, if it had attempted something similar.
That is why the US never bullies Canada or Mexico. If the US had gone after Canada or Mexico (by quarrelling over land, natural resources, or for regional dominance), they would have had Soviet bases there. The US doesn't even opt for "hot pursuits" - chasing down criminals once they cross the border.
BEWARE OF JAPAN
Therefore, China will pay a price. It is going to be huge if it doesn't stop and it seems that the country is in no mood to stop. This country's undoing will be a war or even a minor skirmish with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, a group of uninhabited islands controlled by Japan in the East China Sea. China will soon, maybe in a year or two, stake a much bigger claim for these islands. That will be the end. They can't even start a war. They will be decimated by the Japanese navy even before they start it. Any such move against Japan will be extremely disastrous for China.
I treat as a joke China's accusation that Japan and the US are being provocative by going for a joint drill. Beijing was referring to a proposed June joint drill by the US and Japan to "capture" an imaginary island. But it is the Chinese that keep sending ships, making aggressive statements, printing maps claiming 3 million square kilometres of sea. They are being provocative every day by advancing long dormant territorial and maritime claims, including most of Arunachal Pradesh.
India must resist any security relations China may try to forge with, say, a neighbour like Sri Lanka, by offering better terms, as well as it can.
But first India must wake from its slumber and face reality. This is all the more important at a time when China is in the process of constantly competing with all its neighbours - its new-found aggression over land and sea in the neighbourhood is very similar to the expansionist tendencies of pre-World War II Germany.
The writer, a military strategist, is author of "The Rise of China vs the Logic of Strategy"
China to pay huge price if it does not stop skirmishes with neighbours - The Economic Times
Edward Luttwak
Recent incursions by the Chinese army into Indian territory in the Depsang region of Ladakh neither signify anything nor prove nothing. In fact, they are all contained. But the Chinese army must stay in the game on the western front because the navy and the air force of the country get all the eastern business.
However, with such an aggressive country around as neighbour, India cannot afford to be too calm and complacent when it comes to modernising its defence forces and replacing obsolescent equipment. Of course, India had responded to China's expanding military power by continuing to strengthen its own armed forces. Though with hesitation, it had offered its training facilities for Vietnam's new submarine fleet. We all know that Beijing has abandoned its "Peaceful Rise" and is increasingly quarrelling with its neighbours on the west as well as the east.
EVEN ROADS ARE BAD
However, at this juncture, India must clearly note the glacial pace of military procurement across the globe. What is highly worrisome is that even the roads built by the Border Roads Organisation behind possible frontlines are too narrow and too easily interruptible. One must think out of the box while building new, linear roads that are able to withstand attacks from across the border.
I must say that India will do well by not following China in its act of quarrelling: unlike Beijing, New Delhi should not fight with its neighbours. China is in the process of paralysing itself by picking fights with all its neighbours (such as Vietnam, India, Japan, Taiwan and so on).
This is a fatal mistake. It would have been fatal for any country, including the US, if it had attempted something similar.
That is why the US never bullies Canada or Mexico. If the US had gone after Canada or Mexico (by quarrelling over land, natural resources, or for regional dominance), they would have had Soviet bases there. The US doesn't even opt for "hot pursuits" - chasing down criminals once they cross the border.
BEWARE OF JAPAN
Therefore, China will pay a price. It is going to be huge if it doesn't stop and it seems that the country is in no mood to stop. This country's undoing will be a war or even a minor skirmish with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, a group of uninhabited islands controlled by Japan in the East China Sea. China will soon, maybe in a year or two, stake a much bigger claim for these islands. That will be the end. They can't even start a war. They will be decimated by the Japanese navy even before they start it. Any such move against Japan will be extremely disastrous for China.
I treat as a joke China's accusation that Japan and the US are being provocative by going for a joint drill. Beijing was referring to a proposed June joint drill by the US and Japan to "capture" an imaginary island. But it is the Chinese that keep sending ships, making aggressive statements, printing maps claiming 3 million square kilometres of sea. They are being provocative every day by advancing long dormant territorial and maritime claims, including most of Arunachal Pradesh.
India must resist any security relations China may try to forge with, say, a neighbour like Sri Lanka, by offering better terms, as well as it can.
But first India must wake from its slumber and face reality. This is all the more important at a time when China is in the process of constantly competing with all its neighbours - its new-found aggression over land and sea in the neighbourhood is very similar to the expansionist tendencies of pre-World War II Germany.
The writer, a military strategist, is author of "The Rise of China vs the Logic of Strategy"
China to pay huge price if it does not stop skirmishes with neighbours - The Economic Times
