China says Taiwan independence ‘means war’ as it defends heightened military activity

[Feng Leng]

China says Taiwan independence ‘means war’

Last weekend Taiwan reported multiple Chinese fighter jets and bombers entering its southwestern air defence zone

www.independent.co.uk

China has warned that attempts by Taiwan to pursue independence from Beijing “mean war”, as it defended an increase in military activities in the Taiwan Strait.

China said its manoeuvres were necessary "to safeguard national sovereignty” in a stern warning amid a perceived growing closeness between Taipei and Washington.

China believes that Taiwan’s democratically-elected government is taking the island towards a declaration of formal independence, even as the island’s president Tsai Ing-wen has repeatedly said that it is already an independent country called the Republic of China, its formal name.

The island is claimed by China as a breakaway province, and Beijing rigorously opposes any attempts by other countries to engage with Taipei diplomatically.

Last weekend, Taiwan reported multiple Chinese fighter jets and bombers entering its southwestern air defence identification zone. The incursions coincided with a US carrier battle group entering the disputed South China Sea to promote the “freedom of the seas”, and were also interpreted as a test of the new Biden administration.


List of Taiwan targets for China's bombers revealed

List of Taiwan targets for China's bombers revealed | Taiwan News | 2021-01-28 10:39:00

Taipei's Zhongzheng and Zhongshan districts would be heavily bombarded in first wave.Taiwan's Presidential Office is at the top of China's list of structures to bomb | 2021-01-28 10:39:00

www.taiwannews.com.tw

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Amid China's show of force last weekend featuring eight bombers and reports that this is a "dress rehearsal" for war, China affairs analyst Ian Easton has provided a list of the major potential Taiwan targets of Chinese warplanes in the event of an attack, including in the heart of Taipei.

On Saturday (Jan. 23), the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) flew 13 planes over Taiwan's air identification defense zone (ADIZ), including one Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft, four J-16 fighter jets, and eight Xian H-6K bombers. This was followed the next day by an intrusion into the ADIZ by 15 military aircraft, including two Y-8 anti-submarine planes, two SU-30 fighter jets, six J-10 jet fighters, four J-16s, and one Y-8 reconnaissance plane.

On Tuesday (Jan. 26), Forbes cited Bernard Cole, a professor at the National War College in Washington, D.C., as asserting that the sorties represented a "dress rehearsal" for a future assault on Taiwan. “It does demonstrate the PLAAF’s ability to put together a multi-plane strike, which we would likely see in the event of a hot war against Taiwan,” said Cole.

When asked to comment on which Taiwanese locations would likely be targeted by China's fleet of over 200 H-6 bombers in the event of an all-out war, Easton provided a list of targets acquired from internal PLA military documents labeled for "military use only" and published in his book "The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan's Defense and American Strategy in Asia." According to Easton, who is a fellow at the Project 2049 Institute, the first wave of attacks would be aimed at Taiwan's "important command and control centers, early-warning radars, airstrips, and air defense batteries."

These attacks would be carried out by missiles as part of SEAD, or "suppression of enemy air defenses" as well as special operations forces (SOF) on the ground. These operations would also include the use of high-powered microwave and laser weapons to destroy computer hardware and electronic systems to weaken defenders' "information domination and situational awareness."

Once the SEAD and SOF operations have been completed, China would dispatch its H-6 bombers and fighters to fire missiles and bombs at an even wider variety of targets across the country. Easton said that during these initial attacks, the PLA will carry out "key point strikes" designed to quickly take out Taiwan's government, with the Presidential Office likely "the first to be hit."

Other key government structures include the Executive Yuan, Legislative Yuan, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Economic Affairs, among others. Easton said that because these buildings will be well defended, spies will be planted in advance to pinpoint the locations of key leaders and weaknesses in the buildings and bunkers beneath them.

After Taipei's Zhongzheng District is heavily bombarded, the next area of focus will be the area of Dazhi near the Grand Hotel, Dominican International School, and Miramar Entertainment park, as the vast Heng Shan Military Command Center lies beneath. Outside of Taipei, the top military bases in China's sights include the Army Command Headquarters in Taoyuan's Longtan District, the Six Army Headquarters in Taoyuan's Zhongli District, the 10th Army Headquarters outside Taichung, and the Eighth Army Headquarters in Kaoshiung's Qishan District.

Because Taiwanese generals will be taking shelter in underground bunkers with complex networks of tunnels, the PLAAF plans to drop bunker-busting bombs. The bombers will also hone in on Taiwan's fuel supplies and power grid, striking every oil refinery, pipeline, power plant, and transformer in sight.

Easton wrote that PLA manuals send mixed signals with Taiwan's nuclear power plants, with one admonishing PLA officers not to bomb them, while another expresses confidence that China's air-to-ground missiles can be accurate enough to only take the plants offline, while not causing a catastrophic meltdown. With air superiority well in hand by this stage, Chinese bombers will destroy the remnants of fighter squadrons and mobile missile batteries.

The last wave of bombing that Easton wrote, referred to by the PLA as "final strikes," would consist of wiping out the rest of Taiwan's military forces and then taking aim at civilians to "terrorize the island into submission." To pave the way for invasion forces, bombers would destroy the country's transportation infrastructure, communications network, defense industries, supply depots, logistics centers, airports, and radio and TV stations.

When asked what weapons Taiwan has in its arsenal that could survive the massive first wave and strike back, Easton said the country's road-mobile Hsiung Feng cruise missiles "could easily survive and engage in counter strikes on enemy ships, amphibious staging areas, and airbases."

He said Taiwan's arsenal of short-range air defense missiles are "highly survivable." Examples include Tien Chien (Sky Sword, 天劍) missiles mounted on the Antelope air defense system, the Avenger Air Defense System, Sparrow missiles, Hawk missiles, and Stinger missiles.

He said that the Patriot-3 and Tien Kung III (Skybow III, 天弓三) launchers are somewhat mobile but "challenging to move and hide because they are so large and complex."

The following are locations where the PLA would likely strike early on in the war:

Northern Taiwan
Taoyuan

• Luzhu District

Taipei

• Zhongzheng District
• Zhongshan District

New Taipei

• Tamsui District
• Linkou District
• Xindian District
• Jinshan District
• Nangang District
• Sanzhi District

Hsinchu

• Wufeng Township

Yilan

• Su-ao Township

Central Taiwan
Taichung

• Taiping District
• Dadu District
• Ching Chuan Kang Air Base

Miaoli

• Zhunan Township

Chiayi

• Chiayi Airbase

Eastern Taiwan
Hualien

• Meilunshan

Taitung

• Zhiben

Southern Taiwan
Tainan

• Xinhua District
• Jiali District

Kaohsiung

• Renwu District
• Alian District
• Linyuan District
• Xiaogang District

Pingtung

• Pingtung Airbase

Lienchiang County

• Dongyin Township

Of particular note is the Leshan radar station in Hsinchu's Wufeng Township because it houses PAVE PAWS early warning radar. The system can detect and monitor threats up to 5,000 kilometers away.

@TaiShang


Pentagon calls China's warning of war over Taiwan 'unfortunate'

Pentagon calls China's warning of war over Taiwan 'unfortunate'

Such threats are 'not commensurate' with US defense obligations, spokesman says

asia.nikkei.com

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

China stance on its Province of Taiwan has always been very consistent.

If Tsai dare to declare independent, there may be 3 possible outcome.

1. China will invade Taiwan and reclaimed the island. China is compelled to act under its anti-secessionist law. USA cannot even do anything except to send its military planes to quickly evacuate her independent contractors aka spies. people from there or possibly Tsai as well. Reminds me of the fall of Saigon.

2. A military coup de tat in Taiwan. Tsai be arrested and imprisoned by Taiwan Military and the declaration reversed.

3. Tsai and her henchmen will be assassinated. Everyone know that Taiwan is controlled by the triads and they cannot allowed this silly woman to upset the status quo. Bad for business.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

This Ian guy is a joke. The Hsiung Feng missiles won't have any external target queing and their targets all lie below the radar horizon of their built in radars. They'll only be able to destroy their own fishing ships like they did in 2016.

 

[Beast]

This Ian guy is a joke. The Hsiung Feng missiles won't have any external target queing and their targets all lie below the radar horizon of their built in radars. They'll only be able to destroy their own fishing ships like they did in 2016.

Either the ROC personnel are super incompetent or the Taiwan missile are junk.

 

[Feng Leng]

China stance on its Province of Taiwan has always been very consistent.

If Tsai dare to declare independent, there may be 3 possible outcome.

1. China will invade Taiwan and reclaimed the island. China is compelled to act under its anti-secessionist law. USA cannot even do anything except to send its military planes to quickly evacuate her independent contractors aka spies. people from there or possibly Tsai as well. Reminds me of the fall of Saigon.

2. A military coup de tat in Taiwan. Tsai be arrested and imprisoned by Taiwan Military and the declaration reversed.

3. Tsai and her henchmen will be assassinated. Everyone know that Taiwan is controlled by the triads and they cannot allowed this silly woman to upset the status quo. Bad for business.

If there is a contingency, Xi Jinping could order an attack on Taiwan at any time.

If there is no contingency, it can wait for another 4 years (end of Biden administration) when China will have JL-3 on Type 096 SSBN escorted by Type 095 SSN as well as three aircraft battlegroups, railgun Type 055 and H-20 stealth bombers. Those platforms will reduce PLA casualties to near zero.

The list of bombing targets strikes me as very accurate

 

[bshifter]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1355098051459772418

As we are getting closer to 2049, more "intrusions" are to be expected. Step up the pressure and one day when the military is ready to absorb the province back to Mainland it will be a huge celebration.

 

[FuturePAF]

If there is a contingency, Xi Jinping could order an attack on Taiwan at any time.

If there is no contingency, it can wait for another 4 years (end of Biden administration) when China will have JL-3 on Type 096 SSBN escorted by Type 095 SSN as well as three aircraft battlegroups, railgun Type 055 and H-20 stealth bombers. Those platforms will reduce PLA casualties to near zero.

The list of bombing targets strikes me as very accurate

still need to build enough landing crafts for the marines and airlift planes for the paratroopers

I think those are some of the metrics Taiwan’s allies are watching for indications of an invasion force.

 

[Feng Leng]

still need to build enough landing crafts for the marines and airlift planes for the paratroopers

I think those are some of the metrics Taiwan’s allies are watching for indications of an invasion force.

We have already have three 075 LHD and six 071 LPD as well as a fleet of Y-20 heavy transports. We even have an unknown number of Zubr gigantic air cushioned landing crafts. Not to mention our huge fleet of 073A landing crafts.

 

[SpaceMan18]

LMAO China invading Taiwan ? How can one invade their own country (China's logic) of course these CCP shills want to invade a independent nation like Taiwan.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

still need to build enough landing crafts for the marines and airlift planes for the paratroopers

I think those are some of the metrics Taiwan’s allies are watching for indications of an invasion force.

nope. Not one PLA soldier needs to step foot on Taiwan except to obtain their surrender.

Once their air force and navy are destroyed, the war moves towards elimination of military facilities enabling support for resistance. During the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq lost 95% of its electrical generation capabilities within 2 weeks from just 300 Tomahawk missiles. 90% of bombs dropped on Iraq were dumb bombs. Water treatment plants were bombed. Iraq was reduced to a near sustinence level of existence and total poverty.

 

[Beast]

still need to build enough landing crafts for the marines and airlift planes for the paratroopers

I think those are some of the metrics Taiwan’s allies are watching for indications of an invasion force.

China has more than a thousand military helo, just the Z-8/Z-8A/Z-18 and Mi-171 each can carry more than 24 troops each. With their speed, they can make 3-4 trips in just a day. You dont need to load the whole PLA to take Taiwan. A single army unit of PLA is enough to take Taiwan.

One strategic places in Taiwan is secure, more airborne and paratroops can be delivered by Y-20 and IL-76, Y-8/Y-9..

 

[FuturePAF]

China has more than a thousand military helo, just the Z-8/Z-8A/Z-18 and Mi-171 each can carry more than 24 troops each. With their speed, they can make 3-4 trips in just a day. You dont need to load the whole PLA to take Taiwan. A single army unit of PLA is enough to take Taiwan.

One strategic places in Taiwan is secure, more airborne and paratroops can be delivered by Y-20 and IL-76, Y-8/Y-9..

That’s what Taiwan hopes the PLA will do, hope The Chinese will demand capitulation after a massive wave of strikes. If there is only the threat of a limited number of marines and paratroopers, they will try to hunker down and fight until US help arrives, relying some kind of “Shashojian” defense plan; thousands of tunnels or fake buildings where air defense and anti-tank missiles are hidden inside.

If China just builds the thousands of landing crafts and thousands of medium sized paratrooper planes and a thousand attack helicopters and a thousand large transport helicopters (to cover the coastal landings), the threat of a massive (500,000-650,000 troops for just the initial invasion force/ day 1; invading forces should have a 3:1 advantage when attacking and Taiwan has 200,000 active duty troops, as seen by the Normandy invasion; 156,000 allied vs 50,000 Germans) landing force will put teeth behind the massive missile strike bombardment.

After the gulf war’s 100 day air war, the US and it’s allies had a 100 hour ground war, with their massive overkill of ground forces to force the Iraqis to capitulate. Don’t underestimate the need to show a massive force and the potential devastation it can cause. This also worked for the Americans against Japan after nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki; threat of a 2 million man invasion force.

The threat of a large invasion force entering through the Fulda gap by the soviets during the Cold War (7 days to the river Rhine plan), really scared the Americans, to the point they considered basing tactical nukes to slow them down. The mere threat, due to the massing of troops, was enough for them to think they couldn’t win a conventional war.

p.s. all the thousands of pieces of equipment that I said would be needed to show an invasion force could really happen, will be needed after any conflict to maintain deterrence, because every neighboring country would be on alert after a Taiwan war. All that equipment would be needed to hold the gains and be in a position to resist any potential intervention somewhere else along a border; such as the thousands of attack and large transport helicopters. Excess transport planes could be sold off to other countries like the DC-3s were sold after WW2, and some are still flying today.

Interestingly, the idea of just knocking out their Air Force and navy and key installations on Taiwan island and hoping they capitulate was played out in an interesting fictional novel called “Fatal Terrain” by Dale Brown (quotes a lot of Sun Tzu, hence the title). In the end the US intervenes because the Chinese general didn’t plan for a large invasion force and thought the Taiwanese would recognize they couldn’t win, so should just capitulate. The US intervenes and they defeat the Chinese force. I won’t say how, you can read the book and see.

(yes I know it’s not even a Tom Clancy level of writing, but it has its moments; I’ve read the book about 15 years ago)

 

[SpaceMan18]

That’s what Taiwan hopes the PLA will do, hope The Chinese will demand capitulation after a massive wave of strikes. If there is only the threat of a limited number of marines and paratroopers, they will try to hunker down and fight until US help arrives, relying some kind of “Shashojian” defense plan; thousands of tunnels or fake buildings where air defense and anti-tank missiles are hidden inside.

If China just builds the thousands of landing crafts and thousands of medium sized paratrooper planes and a thousand attack helicopters and a thousand large transport helicopters (to cover the coastal landings), the threat of a massive (500,000-650,000 troops for just the initial invasion force/ day 1; invading forces should have a 3:1 advantage when attacking and Taiwan has 200,000 active duty troops, as seen by the Normandy invasion; 156,000 allied vs 50,000 Germans) landing force will put teeth behind the massive missile strike bombardment.

After the gulf war’s 100 day air war, the US and it’s allies had a 100 hour ground war, with their massive overkill of ground forces to force the Iraqis to capitulate. Don’t underestimate the need to show a massive force and the potential devastation it can cause. This also worked for the Americans against Japan after nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki; threat of a 2 million man invasion force.

The threat of a large invasion force entering through the Fulda gap by the soviets during the Cold War (7 days to the river Rhine plan), really scared the Americans, to the point they considered basing tactical nukes to slow them down. The mere threat, due to the massing of troops, was enough for them to think they couldn’t win a conventional war.

p.s. all the thousands of pieces of equipment that I said would be needed to show an invasion force could really happen, will be needed after any conflict to maintain deterrence, because every neighboring country would be on alert after a Taiwan war. All that equipment would be needed to hold the gains and be in a position to resist any potential intervention somewhere else along a border; such as the thousands of attack and large transport helicopters. Excess transport planes could be sold off to other countries like the DC-3s were sold after WW2, and some are still flying today.

Interestingly, the idea of just knocking out their Air Force and navy and key installations on Taiwan island and hoping they capitulate was played out in an interesting fictional novel called “Fatal Terrain” by Dale Brown (quotes a lot of Sun Tzu, hence the title). In the end the US intervenes because the Chinese general didn’t plan for a large invasion force and thought the Taiwanese would recognize they couldn’t win, so should just capitulate. The US intervenes and they defeat the Chinese force. I won’t say how, you can read the book and see.

(yes I know it’s not even a Tom Clancy level of writing, but it has its moments; I’ve read the book about 15 years ago)

No country will trust China after they invade Taiwan , good luck trying to get China's image back

 

[casual]

No country will trust China after they invade Taiwan , good luck trying to get China's image back

Quite the opposite. if China doesn't invade after Taiwan declares independence, China will be breaking it's promise. Chinese position has always been consistent. No one will take China seriously if China doesn't make good on it's threats.

 

[casual]

That’s what Taiwan hopes the PLA will do, hope The Chinese will demand capitulation after a massive wave of strikes. If there is only the threat of a limited number of marines and paratroopers, they will try to hunker down and fight until US help arrives, relying some kind of “Shashojian” defense plan; thousands of tunnels or fake buildings where air defense and anti-tank missiles are hidden inside.

If China just builds the thousands of landing crafts and thousands of medium sized paratrooper planes and a thousand attack helicopters and a thousand large transport helicopters (to cover the coastal landings), the threat of a massive (500,000-650,000 troops for just the initial invasion force/ day 1; invading forces should have a 3:1 advantage when attacking and Taiwan has 200,000 active duty troops, as seen by the Normandy invasion; 156,000 allied vs 50,000 Germans) landing force will put teeth behind the massive missile strike bombardment.

After the gulf war’s 100 day air war, the US and it’s allies had a 100 hour ground war, with their massive overkill of ground forces to force the Iraqis to capitulate. Don’t underestimate the need to show a massive force and the potential devastation it can cause. This also worked for the Americans against Japan after nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki; threat of a 2 million man invasion force.

The threat of a large invasion force entering through the Fulda gap by the soviets during the Cold War (7 days to the river Rhine plan), really scared the Americans, to the point they considered basing tactical nukes to slow them down. The mere threat, due to the massing of troops, was enough for them to think they couldn’t win a conventional war.

p.s. all the thousands of pieces of equipment that I said would be needed to show an invasion force could really happen, will be needed after any conflict to maintain deterrence, because every neighboring country would be on alert after a Taiwan war. All that equipment would be needed to hold the gains and be in a position to resist any potential intervention somewhere else along a border; such as the thousands of attack and large transport helicopters. Excess transport planes could be sold off to other countries like the DC-3s were sold after WW2, and some are still flying today.

Interestingly, the idea of just knocking out their Air Force and navy and key installations on Taiwan island and hoping they capitulate was played out in an interesting fictional novel called “Fatal Terrain” by Dale Brown (quotes a lot of Sun Tzu, hence the title). In the end the US intervenes because the Chinese general didn’t plan for a large invasion force and thought the Taiwanese would recognize they couldn’t win, so should just capitulate. The US intervenes and they defeat the Chinese force. I won’t say how, you can read the book and see.

(yes I know it’s not even a Tom Clancy level of writing, but it has its moments; I’ve read the book about 15 years ago)

China will use it's air dominance to it's full advantage here. Chinese drones will wreck any conventional defense and Chinese forces will be able to land without major opposition. The difficult fight will be counter-insurgency after the invasion.