below_freezing
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in my opinion, china can never win a war. why?
well first off their supplies would be blockaded causing economic panic, then they'd be attacked by stealth bombers/fighters and missiles from afar before the carriers even get into strike range, that would decimate their critical infrastructure/SAMS/airfields. sure they can strike back with missiles but they will be attacking moving targets while the airfields/infrastructure are fixed targets making it a lot harder.
next once the missiles/stealth planes have softened up the defenses, the carriers can go in and do their job, and id assume Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and NATO would be involved off the top of my head thats around 11 huge carriers, 30 or so small carriers. 22 cruisers, 100 destroyers, 100 frigates, and 100 submarines, and countless support ships. most of plan's ships would be in the bottom of the sea within a few days, and the plaaf cant bring its full might because it will be wary of India, Vietnam, and other US Allies in the region.
by that time the war is pretty much over.
and i dont give a crap about using the debt or whatever, china's economy may be growing fast but its reliant on overbuilding of everything (it uses more cement, steel, and other raw materials more than the next 5 countries combined) and supposedly entire new cities lie empty. not to mention 800,000 mw of power generation installed and growing (when u clearly dont need more)
A limited war with the US would solve problems of excess industrial capacity and nowhere to put it.The obvious solution is using that industrial capacity to fuel the largest war machine the world has ever seen.
The US has the opposite problem of deindustrialization. Seems to me that in a potential war, we're the US of 1940 and you're the Japan of 1940. And your regime knows it. That's why it is not starting a war. If it was that easy to attack China, you would've done so a long time ago, like in 1960 when our GDP per capita was lower than Zimbabwe yet we still blatantly slapped the US's face by backing the Viet Cong which downed 3000 US planes and 5000 US helicopters, and the US could do nothing.
And if we start losing we'll just nuke the US. Yeah we'll be nuked too but we'll lose anyways, so we'll make the US lose too. South Korea and Japan will be the most worried of backing China into a corner because unlike the US which might lose "only" 80% of its population, Koreans and Japanese, due to their high population density, face 100% extinction in a nuclear exchange.
The US missile shield is a joke. It is not even operational and cannot even block half the missiles even when they have radio transmitters on them broadcasting their location. How will it block ICBMs with countermeasures? And there's also Russia, which the US will be forced to nuke if it doesn't want Russia to be the sole remaining superpower after the dust settles.
So don't back us into a corner. No one will like the outcome.