China, Russia in favor of ASEAN summit on Myanmar: Minister

[casual]

China will not allow that. If reaches that stage. PLA will enter and remove junta. The no interference policy is BS. When national interest is in place. Nothing is negotiable.

and then what? Install NLD back as gov? not going to happen. China will wait until the war resolves and work with whoever's then winner. Mostly likely that'll be the junta.

 

[powastick]

There is still Sukyi official who are now in exile, they are more rational than the protester. They can make a good and more pragmatic move. It is why the communication line between those two powers (Junta and Sukyi officials) should remain open. The protester will likely follow what the Sukyi official decide.

Those official isn't interested in ASEAN negotiation. They want US and EU intervention. They are asking nonsensical stuff like "no fly zone" like in Libya(which turns out to be allowing western countries to launch airstrikes). If ASEAN cannot get rid of military, protesters are not interested. Only US and EU can make that "promise". ASEAN negotiation will lead to some compromises with the military, they don't want that, and they think they can make a better deal with the west.

 

[Beast]

and then what? Install NLD back as gov? not going to happen. China will wait until the war resolves and work with whoever's then winner. Mostly likely that'll be the junta.

The junta is anti China and impossible to continue with them. NLD is actually China investment friendly. Plus the rebels of myanmar like karen and other groups have declared not working with junta anymore. You think peace will go back like normal? A long going civil war will continue in Myanmar as long as junta is in place.

 

[Indos]

Those official isn't interested in ASEAN negotiation. They want US and EU intervention. They are asking nonsensical stuff like "no fly zone" like in Libya(which turns out to be allowing western countries to launch airstrikes). If ASEAN cannot get rid of military, protesters are not interested. Only US and EU can make that "promise". ASEAN negotiation will lead to some compromises with the military, they don't want that, and they think they can make a better deal with the west.

I hope that Sukyi official get pragmatic, they should not follow the same mistake Syrian rebel did when they have chance to make a deal with Assad regime under Saudi/UN brokerage.

We will see what those US/EU countries will say, currently US is still busy with that terrorist event in Capitol Hill, but maybe they dont want to comment on ASEAN Meeting that possibly include China and Russia in it. I dont know about the meeting detail, but I guess they are trying to get world powers and both China and Russia are very influential inside Junta mind.

 

[Indos]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377451612113805315

 

[casual]

I hope that Sukyi official get pragmatic, they should not follow the same mistake Syrian rebel did when they have chance to make a deal with Assad regime under Saudi/UN brokerage.

We will see what those US/EU countries will say, currently US is still busy with that terrorist event in Capitol Hill, but maybe they dont want to comment on ASEAN Meeting that possibly include China and Russia in it. I dont know about the meeting detail, but I guess they are trying to get world powers and both China and Russia are very influential inside Junta mind.

Will indonesia consider sending an intervention force as a part of an ASEAN coalition? Don't think diplomatic pressure alone is enough.

 

[Indos]

Will indonesia consider sending an intervention force as a part of an ASEAN coalition? Don't think diplomatic pressure alone is enough.

I dont think ASEAN will make such force, I doubt it. The last one we sent any troops to ASEAN member is to Cambodia and it is also only around 4000 troops in 1990-1993 and it is under UN. If Myanmar become failed state, the one that will get huge refuges will likely be China, Thailand and Malaysia.

http://www.jcreview.com/fulltext/197-1582797357.pdf?1583228584

 

[S10]

ASEAN should take lead on Myanmar. Americans and Europeans are not to be trusted with their legacy of colonialism.

 

[nahtanbob]

why should the military junta give up power ?

 

[Indos]

why should the military junta give up power ?

International pressure and sanction is intended to give more reason for people inside the junta to support the democratic movement, similar like Soeharto will not give up his power during 1997-1998. He gave up power after his own circle support the student protest. Indonesian elites of course at that time act like this due to internal dinamics. No out side power ever sanction or pressure Indonesia during that time, even IMF still support Soeharto.

Assad in Syria and Qadafi in Libya for instant dont give up power because its own circle support them 100 %

 

[powastick]

I hope that Sukyi official get pragmatic, they should not follow the same mistake Syrian rebel did when they have chance to make a deal with Assad regime under Saudi/UN brokerage.

We will see what those US/EU countries will say, currently US is still busy with that terrorist event in Capitol Hill, but maybe they dont want to comment on ASEAN Meeting that possibly include China and Russia in it. I dont know about the meeting detail, but I guess they are trying to get world powers and both China and Russia are very influential inside Junta mind.

Its an impasse. And you are overestimating Russia and China role. ASEAN is better off preparing for a civil war because it doesn't have Myanmar people trust. This may take years, before someone come to their senses. In the other hand ASEAN must prevent Myanmar becoming proxy wars for major powers in this cold war 2.0.

Assad in Syria and Qadafi in Libya for instant dont give up power because its own circle support them 100 %

Tatmadaw has more support internally than Assad and Qaddafi. I have yet to see major defection of its leaders. The protestors biggest mistake was attacking Tatmadaw instead of its leader Min Aung Hlaing , making it very unlikely for defection.

 

[Viet]

Will indonesia consider sending an intervention force as a part of an ASEAN coalition? Don't think diplomatic pressure alone is enough.

What Asean coalition? Unless the military there runs amok and targets Viet ethnics VN will not intervene I am 100 percent sure. The Sc sea conflict with the chinese is Vietnam’s major concern.
We hold the UNSC presidency this month, Burma is not among the topics Vietnam puts on the table.

 

[mike2000 is back]

China will not allow that. If reaches that stage. PLA will enter and remove junta. The no interference policy is BS. When national interest is in place. Nothing is negotiable.

No, judging from how the CCP actions this past decades since libéralisation, there is no way they are going to intervene militarily in myanmar. That will violate their own much touted non interference policy which they like peddling.