China replaces America as the world's economic superpower

[anon45]

Woops, just noticed this was a commentary. In that case my above blurb doesn't apply until it actually happens.

Until then my reply is prove it!

 

[Aramsogo]

HongWu is a fake Chinese people. I guess he is JayAtl.

Please don't insult HongWu. HongWu can write in English.

And zerohedge is a pretty good site.

 

[illuzioN]

USA will always better then China.... NOW and in the FUTURE.

 

[kamakazi attack]

if china has leaders like hongwu she be sinking faster than what bush's wars did to the american economy.

 

[hembo]

I think the Indian fanboy's super power dream here has caught up with the Chinese fanboys... Carry on superpowers!!!

 

[hembo]

However, if the news of Chinese liquidation of US bonds is true, there is going to be a huge impact on the world economy. I'm gonna sell all my shares tomorrow.

In fact one of the finance guy in our office (Indian guy) gave me an indication that something similar along with devaluation of US currency is on the offing!!

 

[kamakazi attack]

USA will always better then China.... NOW and in the FUTURE.

if one to ask a joe in sudan, mexico, finland...whatever... 99% if they had choice would choose to live in the US rather than china any day of the week.
even chinese themselves would rather live in a place like the US and Canada.

 

[rcrmj]

if one to ask a joe in sudan, mexico, finland...whatever... 99% if they had choice would choose to live in the US rather than china any day of the week.
even chinese themselves would rather live in a place like the US and Canada.

Mr '99%' yes u r right everyone wants to live in the US and Cana that includs u`

back to the topic, the article is over streched`even superpower comes and goes, but to soon to say u.s will be replaced by anyone`!

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Boasting about being an "economic superpower" is the biggest pile of BS.

Let's wait till it actually happens first.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

HongWu is a fake Chinese people. I guess he is JayAtl.

HongWu has a big mouth, but I don't think he is JayAtl.

 

[Nirvana]

Everybody is ditching the dollar now. The collapse is imminent.

China Proposes To Cut Two Thirds Of Its $3 Trillion In USD Holdings | zero hedge

IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

Now India has a choice. Recognize the great superpowerdom of China, or try to side with USA in its last desperate attempt to hang on to its empire.

Brace everybody, this is going to be wild ride! But when the dust settles, China's flag will be the one flying highest.

The final emancipation of China's 1.3 billion people is at hand! 300 years of western global dominance is coming to a close.

Hey Hongwu , Make Yourself clear , That day at Other Thread About India you were Barking that ' China never considers Itself as Superpower Its just India who calls Itself as Super Duper Power Though It is not '.

And Here You are saying To Recognise ' China as Superpower '

Make It clear

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Hey Hongwu , Make Yourself clear , That day at Other Thread About India you were Barking that ' China never considers Itself as Superpower Its just India who calls Itself as Super Duper Power Though It is not '.

And Here You are saying To Recognise ' China as Superpower '

Make It clear

It is called hypocrisy.

On topic: China does not have "global power projection", therefore we are not a superpower.

That is a fact.

 

[Burger Boy]

China’s economy will surpass the U.S. in 2016

IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.

For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.

And it’s a lot closer than you may think.

According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.

Put that in your calendar.

It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington, D.C., right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world’s hegemonic power.

According to the IMF forecast, whomever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world’s largest economy.

Most people aren’t prepared for this. They aren’t even aware it’s that close. Listen to experts of various stripes, and they will tell you this moment is decades away. The most bearish will put the figure in the mid-2020s.

China’s economy will be the world’s largest within five years or so.

But they’re miscounting. They’re only comparing the gross domestic products of the two countries using current exchange rates.

That’s a largely meaningless comparison in real terms. Exchange rates change quickly. And China’s exchange rates are phony. China artificially undervalues its currency, the renminbi, through massive intervention in the markets.
The comparison that really matters

The IMF in its analysis looks beyond exchange rates to the true, real terms picture of the economies using “purchasing power parities.” That compares what people earn and spend in real terms in their domestic economies.

Under PPP, the Chinese economy will expand from $11.2 trillion this year to $19 trillion in 2016. Meanwhile the size of the U.S. economy will rise from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion. That would take America’s share of the world output down to 17.7%, the lowest in modern times. China’s would reach 18%, and rising.

Just 10 years ago, the U.S. economy was three times the size of China’s. Naturally, all forecasts are fallible. Time and chance happen to them all. The actual date when China surpasses the U.S. might come even earlier than the IMF predicts, or somewhat later. If the great Chinese juggernaut blows a tire, as a growing number fear it might, it could even delay things by several years. But the outcome is scarcely in doubt.

This is more than a statistical story. It is the end of the Age of America. As a bond strategist in Europe told me two weeks ago, “We are witnessing the end of America’s economic hegemony.”

We have lived in a world dominated by the U.S. for so long that there is no longer anyone alive who remembers anything else. America overtook Great Britain as the world’s leading economic power in the 1890s and never looked back.

And both those countries live under very similar rules of constitutional government, respect for civil liberties and the rights of property. China has none of those. The Age of China will feel very different.

Victor Cha, senior adviser on Asian affairs at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me China’s neighbors in Asia are already waking up to the dangers. “The region is overwhelmingly looking to the U.S. in a way that it hasn’t done in the past,” he said. “They see the U.S. as a counterweight to China. They also see American hegemony over the last half-century as fairly benign. In China they see the rise of an economic power that is not benevolent, that can be predatory. They don’t see it as a benign hegemony.”

The rise of China, and the relative decline of America, is the biggest story of our time. You can see its implications everywhere, from shuttered factories in the Midwest to soaring costs of oil and other commodities. Last fall, when I attended a conference in London about agricultural investment, I was struck by the number of people there who told stories about Chinese interests snapping up farmland and foodstuff supplies — from South America to China and elsewhere.

This is the result of decades during which China has successfully pursued economic policies aimed at national expansion and power, while the U.S. has embraced either free trade or, for want of a better term, economic appeasement.

“There are two systems in collision,” said Ralph Gomory, research professor at NYU’s Stern business school. “They have a state-guided form of capitalism, and we have a much freer former of capitalism.” What we have seen, he said, is “a massive shift in capability from the U.S. to China. What we have done is traded jobs for profit. The jobs have moved to China. The capability erodes in the U.S. and grows in China. That’s very destructive. That is a big reason why the U.S. is becoming more and more polarized between a small, very rich class and an eroding middle class. The people who get the profits are very different from the people who lost the wages.”

The next chapter of the story is just beginning. U.S. spending spree won’t work

What the rise of China means for defense, and international affairs, has barely been touched on. The U.S. is now spending gigantic sums — from a beleaguered economy — to try to maintain its place in the sun. See: Pentagon spending is budget blind spot .

It’s a lesson we could learn more cheaply from the sad story of the British, Spanish and other empires. It doesn’t work. You can’t stay on top if your economy doesn’t.

Equally to the point, here is what this means economically, and for investors.

Some years ago I was having lunch with the smartest investor I know, London-based hedge-fund manager Crispin Odey. He made the argument that markets are reasonably efficient, most of the time, at setting prices. Where they are most likely to fail, though, is in correctly anticipating and pricing big, revolutionary, “paradigm” shifts — whether a rise of disruptive technologies or revolutionary changes in geopolitics. We are living through one now.

The U.S. Treasury market continues to operate on the assumption that it will always remain the global benchmark of money. Business schools still teach students, for example, that the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury bond is the “risk-free rate” on money. And so it has been for more than a century. But that’s all based on the Age of America.

No wonder so many have been buying gold. If the U.S. dollar ceases to be the world’s sole reserve currency, what will be? The euro would be fine if it acts like the old deutschemark. If it’s just the Greek drachma in drag ... not so much.

The last time the world’s dominant hegemon lost its ability to run things singlehandedly was early in the past century. That’s when the U.S. and Germany surpassed Great Britain. It didn’t turn out well.

Brett Arends is a senior columnist for MarketWatch and a personal-finance columnist for The Wall Street Journal.

This is by PPP, so when is China's economy projected to surpass the US in absolute terms.

 

[Aramsogo]

It is called hypocrisy.

On topic: China does not have "global power projection", therefore we are not a superpower.

That is a fact.

This global power projection thing is overrated, don't you think??
I can't think of a single thing the US gained from Vietnam to Libya except debt and inflation.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

This global power projection thing is overrated, don't you think??
I can't think of a single thing the US gained from Vietnam to Libya except debt and inflation.

Exactly right.

Which is why I hope that China never follows in America's footsteps.