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Thank you, it's just that being an Indian I don't really know how things work when it comes to such groups except that they share a lot of grey area. I wish good luck to Pakistan in their fight against ISIS.good point
but those other guys belonging to difa council have not turned their guns at the state of Pakistan Ilyas Kashmiri being an exception of course.
just saying that those that are front runners in fighting the state of Pakistan and representatives of Al Qaeda and Pakistan have NEVER ever fought outside Pakistan and have mostly been sectarian terrorists, granted they share the wahabi ideology and consider all the other scumbags as their brothers but that's it. they (LeJ, TTP, Khurasani etc) have ever harmed India and never intend to do so whereas LeT has been India specific . (but this is irrelevant, Like Haqqanis , anyone who is found in FATA is getting the same treatment).
sadly ISIS will outlive you and me. I dont know if our grand children will live in a world free of ISIS and its clones or not .. I just hope so.
Why?The issue lies with IS.. which is going to leave the Military helpless.
I agree with all of the above. I must, however, point out the Sunni extremist/sectarian aspect of the rise of Daesh in Iraq. Sunni sectarianism in a Shia majority country (ruled by a sectarian Shia government that openly discriminated against the Sunni minority under Maliki) was exploited to magnify the impact of many of the factors you outlined above, and that is one significant factor that does not exist in Pakistan.About the angle of Daesh (ISIL) and ETIM: Daesh does not have much of a future in Pakistan. There are a number of factors at work that makes Daesh relevant to Syria & Iraq, but not Pakistan.
1. Pakistan has a longer and deeper experience with democracy and despite imperfections, Pakistanis generally value ballots over bullets. The only risk in this is expanding influence of certain Madressah networks wherein students are taught that democracy is kufr. I do not see this risk as too significant now or in the near future.
2. Pakistan is not a dictator-ruled country. Even when we do have them, dictators are compelled to 'manufacture' legitimacy via ballot box. No one organization or person can come to rule Pakistan, just like that.
3. Daesh has arisen as a result of back-lash and reaction to invasion and foreign armed interference. Such a scenario does not exist in Pakistan.
4. Even though there is Indian interference that encourages armed groups inside Pakistan, supporting Daesh is not something Indians are likely to do.
5. People of Pakistan support their Army and Pakistan Army will not allow a group like Daesh to strengthen itself within Pakistan. People and Army of Pakistan have sacrificed a lot to let another terror group to take root here.
This is where you may be wrongThe only risk in this is expanding influence of certain Madressah networks wherein students are taught that democracy is kufr. I do not see this risk as too significant now or in the near future.
Why?
Valid points, though I would argue that the sectarian ideology underpinning Daesh has existed in Pakistan for decades in the form of the SSP, LeJ, Jundullah, as has the idea of an "Islamic Caliphate". That, plus the sectarian dynamics unique to Iraq that I pointed out in my response to Chak Bamu above, make me skeptical of the ability of Daesh to make the kinds of gains that it made in Iraq.The nature of the recruits and the aggressive marketing of the product. There is no limitation as it has been with other organizations on poor/lower middle class unemployed recruits. Their tactic is essentially take the ideals of AQ.. and then spread it around like a marketing campaign for cigarettes.
This fight will not be in FATA, but in the streets of cities.
Valid points, though I would argue that the sectarian ideology underpinning Daesh has existed in Pakistan for decades in the form of the SSP, LeJ, Jundullah, as has the idea of an "Islamic Caliphate". That, plus the sectarian dynamics unique to Iraq that I pointed out in my response to Chak Bamu above, make me skeptical of the ability of Daesh to make the kinds of gains that it made in Iraq.
The uniqueness in IS is that it takes all of it on board. Like a wide ranging club membership..but what is most deadly is that unlike previous organizations that have used the "dark" net and anonymous identities to quietly spread their word around. IS is waging an internet campaign that seems almost professional.
This is where you may be wrong
Daesh will play the sectarian card here initially and unfortunately for that purpose it will find a lot of willing recruits
and from there on it may decide to openly challenge the state !
recall that during previous PPP government, almost every atrocity against the shia minority was indirectly justified by pointing at the fact that the country was ruled by Zardari (and him being a scum and shameless fraudster was used to deflect the outrage against TTP and LeJ).I agree with all of the above. I must, however, point out the Sunni extremist/sectarian aspect of the rise of Daesh in Iraq. Sunni sectarianism in a Shia majority country (ruled by a sectarian Shia government that openly discriminated against the Sunni minority under Maliki) was exploited to magnify the impact of many of the factors you outlined above, and that is one significant factor that does not exist in Pakistan.
I wanted to return to this, because this is an aspect of Pakistan's war against terrorism that does not really get the attention it deserves outside of a few editorials or op-eds now and then. The "Punjabi Taliban" and their allied Sunni sectarian terrorist groups are based in "Pakistan proper" and many urban areas, and their "non-militant wings" (like the ASWJ) have ties to certain political parties, especially in Punjab. Dealing with this particular threat (and it will have to be dealt with in the long term) will not be something the military can handle outside of providing intelligence, training and perhaps limited kinetic support. The need for the civilians to enact and implement the necessary reforms to bolster civilian law enforcement and intelligence capacities is paramount, and I still don't see that effort on the part of the politicians.This fight will not be in FATA, but in the streets of cities.