China Population: China's post one-child baby boom is over

[Dai Toruko]

China saw a spike in births following the reversal of its decades-old one-child policy in 2015. But the trend is shifting, as families face financial pressures, and a move toward gender equality means more women feel comfortable pursuing careers. And as Samantha Vadas reports, its having an impact on the economy

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Turkey's been running it's mouth lately, forgetting its place. Maybe China should send massive shipments of advanced weaponry to Kurdish fighters.

 

[randomradio]

The CCP screwed up population control big time.

 

[Chhatrapati]

Turkey's been running it's mouth lately, forgetting its place. Maybe China should send massive shipments of advanced weaponry to Kurdish fighters.

What did Turkey do now?

 

[empirefighter]

1.China has adopted two child policy in 2016, there is no one child policy in China now.
2.China gradually permit three child, and maybe fully permit three child in 2020.
3.You just need to pay penalty and no one really care about how many children you have.
4.The department controlling national child birth and monitoring one child policy was partly cancelled in 2013, and totally cancelled in 2018.
5.Most families will tend to have two or three children even the government has no restriction in the future.
6.China is gradually transforming in a more high tech economy, robots are brought into assembly line in large scale.

 

[GumNaam]

my Chinese coworkers have told me that the "one child" policy was never really enforced. Just making the law alone was enough to effect the birthrate.

 

[empirefighter]

my Chinese coworkers have told me that the "one child" policy was never really enforced. Just making the law alone was enough to effect the birthrate.

In some provinces, the policy was enforced very well. But in some provinces, the policy was not enforced well. That depends. In my province, most families have two or three children. Very few families have only one child. You just pay the penalty and you can have what you want.

 

[S10]

1. Economic focus on real estate investment is burdening Chinese consumers with excessive debt through heavy borrowing. It's eating into consumer purchasing power.

2. High cost of education and healthcare keeps many poorer families from being able to afford additional children.

3. You cannot use "I know a lot of people who have two or three children" to prove a problem doesn't exist. It's anecdotal evidence which doesn't carry much weight. Statistically, China's population growth is way below its replacement rate and dropping. It's even more staggeringly low if you focus on ethnic Han only.

4. There is a severe gender imbalance, with over 32 million more males than females. That's almost the entire population of Canada in surplus men who won't be able to find a mate. It's a source of social instability.

We can't be blindly cheering for everything that happens in China. If it's a problem, then we need to recognize it as one instead of being defensive about it.

 

[Cybernetics]

my Chinese coworkers have told me that the "one child" policy was never really enforced. Just making the law alone was enough to effect the birthrate.

China is a really big country with regional differences that it is easy to paint a certain narrative about the whole nation by selecting a specific region as a sample.

Beijing and Shanghai had low birth rates for a while, their population growth is fuelled by migrants and only about 1/3 to half of the city are the original inhabitants. The 3 NE provinces (Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang) as a whole has low birth rates since many young people live in other regions of China and people there generally willingly follow government policies.

Places like rural Henan on the other hand families with 4-5 kids is common place, some have even more. China has a sizeable hidden population. The stories that were told about the extra 30 million men in China is inaccurate. Yes, there is more men than women but not that much of a difference, that is a natural occurrence where there are more males at birth than females. Researchers found there could be 25 million extra women who were unregistered.

14 million people registered over 4 years who were previously unregistered:
https://mashable.com/2017/03/29/14-million-people-unregistered/#muzyMJgKwqqu

As policies relax more officially more people would be registered. There isn't much effort put into enforcing rural areas. The female abortion narrative was exaggerated, they were just born and unregistered and hidden away in the rural areas in their traditional community lifestyle and no one bothered them. In China there isn't a dowry that the female pays the male, but the other way around. The male has to pay the female's family a sizeable sum to marry, so there isn't that economic burden on the female's family, in fact it could improve their lives. The male has to go earn money in order to find a wife, the price is high even in rural areas. Some poorer farmers marry rural women from neighbouring countries.

Some provinces had been producers and exporters of population since ancient times.

Zhu Ting 朱婷 (23 years old) is a Chinese national team volleyball player who participated in 2016 Olympic Games and 2015 World Cup. She currently plays for Vakifbank Istanbul. She was born in Henan into a family of 6 children.

 

[beijingwalker]

All developed countries have low birth rate problem due to the desire of individuals going after a better quality life. China may have incentive policies to encourage people to have more children in the future. We want every child born in China enjoys a good life and being taken care nicely, not tens of millions born into poverty and grow up joblessly.

 

[Nan Yang]

Researchers may have ‘found’ many of China’s 30 million missing girls

By Simon Denyer November 30, 2016

Academics often talk about between 30 and 60 million “missing girls” in China, apparently killed in the womb or just after birth, thanks to a combination of preference for sons and the country’s decades under a repressive one-child policy.

Now researchers in the United States and China think they might have found many — or even most — of them, and argue they might not have been killed after all.

John Kennedy of the University of Kansas and Shi Yaojiang of Shaanxi Normal University have released a study claiming that the births of many of the girls may, in fact, simply not have been registered.

“People think 30 million girls are missing from the population. That's the population of California, and they think they're just gone,” said Kennedy, an associate professor of political science, according to the university website.


More....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...g-girls/?utm_term=.f7be5abcdc6e&noredirect=on

 

[Mista]

3. You cannot use "I know a lot of people who have two or three children" to prove a problem doesn't exist. It's anecdotal evidence which doesn't carry much weight. Statistically, China's population growth is way below its replacement rate and dropping. It's even more staggeringly low if you focus on ethnic Han only.

Indeed. I've written about this before.

If look at the statistics, 2 kids is actually the most common in Singapore and Japan among married couples; around 40% in Singapore. 3 kids is also surprisingly common at around 20%, as common as 1 kid.

So what's the caveat here? 30% of our women are single and not married. That significantly pulls down our total fertility rate, which include non-married women. Our married females actually have a average of 2.1 children.

https://data.gov.sg/dataset/average...group-of-resident-ever-married-females-annual

Here's an extract from an article in China.

由于总有部分人不婚不育，或只愿生育一两个孩子，少数家庭生育特别多孩子对维持民族繁衍至关重要。在一个正常社会中，不同家庭的生育意愿千差万别。假定意愿孩子数呈如下的分布：6、3、2、2、1、1、0，且所有家庭都能如愿，那一共7个家庭将生育15个孩子，生育率为2.14，勉强接近更替水平。而在这15个孩子中，来自三孩或六孩家庭的有9个，占总数的2/3；来自两孩家庭的孩子只有4个；而独生子女只有2个，不到总数的1/7。这也意味着，当来自三孩和三孩以上家庭的孩子非常普遍时，生育率才刚处于更替水平。

　　这也说明，全面二孩政策远远不够。在该政策下，上述家庭的生育数量将分别变成2、2、2、2、1、1、0，即7个家庭总共生育10个孩子，生育率仅为1.43。即当人们感觉二孩家庭孩子非常普遍时，生育率已经远低于更替水平了。

http://opinion.caixin.com/2016-10-31/101002084.html

In Singapore, at least 3 in 10 woman have '0' children because they are unmarried. That explains the low TFR.

 

[beijingwalker]

Researchers may have ‘found’ many of China’s 30 million missing girls

By Simon Denyer November 30, 2016

Academics often talk about between 30 and 60 million “missing girls” in China, apparently killed in the womb or just after birth, thanks to a combination of preference for sons and the country’s decades under a repressive one-child policy.

Now researchers in the United States and China think they might have found many — or even most — of them, and argue they might not have been killed after all.

John Kennedy of the University of Kansas and Shi Yaojiang of Shaanxi Normal University have released a study claiming that the births of many of the girls may, in fact, simply not have been registered.

“People think 30 million girls are missing from the population. That's the population of California, and they think they're just gone,” said Kennedy, an associate professor of political science, according to the university website.


More....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...g-girls/?utm_term=.f7be5abcdc6e&noredirect=on

The US research is just BS. They also claim that Iraq had WMD. Professional liars.

 

[FlowerSummer]

Corruption was rampant in China back a decade ago, it causes a lot of problem back in those days, but some side effects also come along with corruption, that there is a huge number of unregistered population, mostly came from family that has overbirth

Oh by the way, china has already have significant gender equality wayyy before one child policy was implemented