Complying with Pakistani demands mean Talis in power in Afghan, China will never accept that. They have actually told to a Pakistani delegation in clear cut terms, no emirates in AFG period.
Actually no, the GHQ (to the best of my knowledge) does not want the Taliban in control. There is no dispute on that -- the GHQ does want a zero Indian footprint in Afghanistan -- which I've argued, if Afghans were smart enough would have done without even Pakistan's prodding. China would not object to that either -- they do not want to compete with India in Afghanistan; nor do they want to compete with India in CARs.
What small countries need to understand (this applied to Pakistan vis-a-vis India) is that they cannot choose more than one orbit. For example India did very well being non-aligned during the cold war -- Pakistan however could not do that -- still cannot easily do that. Afghanistan is a very weak country: Daud Khan (Shaheed) tried to light a Russian cigar with an American match: the rest is history.
Another aspect is Chinese military assistance to ANSF in terms of military hardware which are being used to fight Pak proxies.
Yes but that has no relevance here -- nobody wants a collapse of the Afghan Government.
From a GHQ perspective, it looks like the order of priority is:
1. Heavily Aligned Pakistan/Afghanistan [zero India presence -- free trade, travel, other common mechanisms of statehood] -- Most Desired
2. Insulated Weak Afghanistan -- Fallback option
3. Disintegrated Afghan state -- not desired at all
4. Pro India Afghanistan -- least desirable state
Lastly CPEC being considered a golden duck in Pakistani circles does bring significant investment but with investment comes influence and thus I see CPEC more of China nudging Pakistan in changing course vis-a-vis Talis and other groups.
See above CPEC is viable with an insulated Afghanistan -- which you can see the GHQ has already putting in the works. The fences, minefields, trenches will accomplish that. Not desired but livable.
If Pakistan was *control* over Afghan foreign policy Afghan can demand similar *control* -- Imagine if Karzai has chosen to downgrade relations with India and tried to position Afghanistan as a hub excluding India for 20 years -- where would we be. Mollah Omar would have died a teacher at an obscure seminary -- you would have mini-Dubai's dotted across Afghanistan/Pakistan.
The GHQ may be dull but Afghan statecraft is nothing short of stupid.
Not surprised.
Chinese policy planners have been bluish on Tajikistan for some time now. Tajikistan is far more peaceful than an Afghanistan, which is ranked the third most unstable country in the world.
In fact, China has by passed much of Afghanistan relying instead on CAR. One reason why Ghani has turned to India
Read: China’s assiduous courting of former Soviet Central Asian nations is stirring apprehension among Russia’s leaders (SCMP)
mmm very good point this makes sense --
@A-Team -- very good point -- I was wondering why Ghani is not going on red-carpets to Bejing. Perhaps the deal the Chinese are offering isn't all that great.
One would wonder why China has not outdone India on the $1 billion dollars.
? and grapes are sour 
