Prophets of doom, predicting dire prospects and consequences of a “two-front war”, are back in business, as the Modi government responds robustly to challenges on its borders posed by China and Pakistan. What has changed in the management of our borders since Modi became PM? New Delhi has sent an unambiguous message to Pakistan that support for cross-border infiltration and terrorism by Pakistani forces will be met by heavy bombardment from Indian side.
The situation on the border with China has been deftly handled. Attempts by China’s Peoples’ Liberation Army at advancing its frontiers by new structures and roads were met by the structures being pulled down by the Indo-Tibetan Border Police, without any direct face-off between the two armies.
China now faces security challenges all across its maritime frontiers. Beijing’s arbitrary and unilateral definition of its maritime frontiers and its unilateral actions seeking to restrict flights over international air space close to its shores by an “Air Defence Identification Zone”, have been opposed by its maritime neighbours—South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia. Tensions have escalated on China’s maritime frontiers with Japan, Vietnam and Philippines. China’s assertiveness has forced the US to state that it stands by its security treaty and guarantees to Japan. The US and India have separately decided to proceed with enhancing Vietnam’s maritime defence capabilities. The US-Philippines security alliance is being revitalised.
In contrast, India has made it clear during the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping that talks to resolve the border issue should continue, keeping in view the landmark 2005 agreement, whose provisions run counter to Chinese claims, especially in Arunachal Pradesh. More importantly, in an effort to ease the tense climate caused by border stand-offs, the two countries agreed to enhance contacts and cooperation between their militaries.
It would, however, be incorrect to presume that the Sino-Indian border issue will be settled anytime soon. Nor can one presume that China will not continue to test our nerves by intruding into areas where its claims are contestable and questionable.
The recent flare-up in Chumar has made it clear to China that it cannot presume India will remain as lethargic as it was in recent years. China has to pay much more attention and concentrate the bulk of its armed forces on its Pacific shores, rather than on its western borders with India. In these circumstances, what strategic gain does China make by escalating tensions with India, in a test of wills that could be as indecisive, as what transpired in 1987, in Sumdorong Chu, in Arunachal Pradesh? Moreover, the India of 2014 is not the blustering, blundering, ill-prepared India of 1962. India, in turn, will have to adopt border management strategies that are effective and realistic, even as it continues to improve its logistics and enhance its firepower and deployment on its eastern borders.
Pakistan, like China, faces multiple security challenges. Border tensions between Iran and Pakistan have been steadily escalating over the last year. Iran accuses Pakistan of providing support, safe haven and arms to the extremist Sunni terrorist group, the Hizb e Adl. Iran has brought Pakistani actions to the notice of the UN Security Council. It has also threatened and carried out attacks on terrorist safe havens in Baluchistan. Pakistani support for the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network have similarly escalated tensions along the AfPak border and led to a raging insurgency within Pakistan. Apart from dealing firmly with Pakistani support for and infiltration of terrorists in J&K and elsewhere in India, New Delhi now has the strategic space to pay back Pakistan in kind, for its actions. If India today faces a so-called “two front” challenge, China has invited challenges on its maritime boundaries with eight countries, while Pakistan has heated up its land boundaries on three fronts.
dadpartha@gmail.com
The writer is a former diplomat
China Must Realise India of 2014 is Not the India of 1962 -The New Indian Express
