China moves to counter India with arms sales to Pakistan

Good news for Pak

China moves to counter India with arms sales to Pakistan

Beijing’s first export of J-10C jets marks step-up in decades-old arms relationship with Islamabad

www.ft.com

Beijing’s first export of J-10C jets marks step-up in decades-old arms relationship with Islamabad


China will deliver 25 J-10C fighter jets to Pakistan within weeks as part of a deal that will bolster Islamabad’s military capabilities against mutual rival India.

Beijing’s first export of the advanced jets marks a big step-up in its decades-old arms relationship with Islamabad and entails providing its ally with some of the latest equipment that China’s own armed forces are using. China will also broaden its support to Pakistan’s navy.
The first batch of the combat aircraft is being tested in Chengdu, the base of its manufacturer Chengdu Aerospace Corporation, according to a journalist at a Chinese military publication.
“They will be transferred to Pakistan once Pakistan air force pilots and technicians have completed an introduction to the aircraft,” he said.

Senior officials in Islamabad said the jets would be delivered before the end of the month.
Last week, Chinese and foreign military watchers posted photos and a video showing several J-10C aircraft flying the colours of the Pakistan air force on social media.
China is also selling Pakistan four Type 054A frigates, the first of which began service in November, and is expected to begin delivery of up to eight Type 041 submarines, its quietest attack submarine, this year.
India, which has been engaged in a stand-off on its Himalayan border with China for nearly two years, believes the arms deliveries to Pakistan are an attempt to amplify the threat from Islamabad. India shares long land borders with both Pakistan and China.

“There’s a clear strategic nexus between China and Pakistan,” said Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research, a New Delhi think-tank. “That nexus is clearly designed to contain India, to pin India down and keep it preoccupied. That’s the Chinese strategic aim.”
He described the latest arms deals as a significant shift, adding that “China is now selling or transferring its top of the line weapons systems to Pakistan”.

The J-10C aircraft will help Pakistan close the air-power gap with India following New Delhi’s acquisition of 36 Rafale fighter jets from France. “This is our response to [India’s] Rafale,” Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed, Pakistan’s interior minister, said when he revealed the J-10C agreement in December.

The new Chinese ships would boost Pakistan’s capabilities in the Indian Ocean, an area of strategic importance for Beijing.
“They want Pakistan to have naval bases ready that China could also use, and to be able to protect them,” said Siemon Wezeman, an arms trade expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
“The Chinese have shown that they will sell to Pakistan when others won’t. I suspect that China is very easy to persuade [to sell], not only for commercial but also for political reasons,” he said.
India is also planning a naval expansion. The navy’s deputy chief said late last year that it aimed to increase the size of its fleet from 130 vessels to 170 by 2027, including four frigates being developed in partnership with Russia.
Despite the upgrades, Chellaney said the Himalayan stand-off was draining India’s defence resources. “The Indian navy is supposed to be undergoing modernisation, but the modernisation is happening at a relatively slow pace, largely because of the land military confrontations that India faces,” he said.

 

[MH.Yang]

4. Burma is Chinese client state

Myanmar is not a vassal state of China. China only has a certain influence on the ethnic minority autonomous region in northern Myanmar.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

i highly doubt China will sell J-20. J-31s are a possibility.

In couple of years, most likely after the maiden flight of the 6th gen aircraft.

I think China will have the maiden flight of its 6th gen aircraft around 2025, then Pakistan can acquire the most recent version of the J-20 with the TVC WS-15.

Since Pakistan always chooses to acquire the aircrafts from the CAC as both JF-17 and J-10 came from it, so the J-20 will be no exception.

 

[MultaniGuy]

Next will be J20s and Nuke subs within a decade.

Insh'Allah.

China gets the vital trade link with Gwadar while Pakistan gets Chinese military technologies.

I believe that's a fair trade.

 

[Rollno21]

What new ,it has been doing it for decades now.

 

[khansaheeb]

Insh'Allah.

China gets the vital trade link with Gwadar while Pakistan gets Chinese military technologies.

I believe that's a fair trade.

If a full blown cold war starts with China, which is highly likely, Pakistan will be definitely be in the crosswire and it is extremely important we have the means to defend ourselves both conventionally and unconventionally. This means Pakistan should have every technology available and means from China and other allies (TRIPC nations).

 

[peagle]

For Pakistan the 2nd point is not as bad as its in India, for Pakistan it will be more about dealing with the corrupts and criminals

I am glad that you also recognise Pakistan's potential.

But, sorry brother, I have to disagree with your reasons for 2nd point.
The problem isn't dealing with corrupts and criminals,
the problem is the extreme obsession Pakistanis have with corruption and so-called criminality.

Those issues exists in every country in the world, especially developing nations, including others in our region. I have a copy of a large study done around 10 years ago where it showed 1/3 of elected politicians in India had active criminal records or charges against them, including rape and murder. It also showed, having a criminal reputation increased your chances of being elected.

The corruption is also just as bad, if not worse then in Pakistan, but you don't see citizens of other countries crying and shouting about it all the time, only Pakistanis do. It creates a unfairly bad reputation. businesses decide that if they are complaining so much then it must be bad, they invest in other countries, which are just as corrupt but because of better image, it helps them.

Pakistan has corruption but it is not worse then most other countries. Our problem is the lack of right polices, lack of appropriate laws, and lack of maturity among our political leadership. It isn't corruption or criminality.

It is unfair to criticise ourselves out of proportion, it is simply unfair.

 

[peagle]

Insh'Allah.

China gets the vital trade link with Gwadar while Pakistan gets Chinese military technologies.

I believe that's a fair trade.

Sorry to break it to you bro, but the relationship is far deeper then mere purchase of weapons and a silly trade route.
Please let's try not to downplay and simplify more then required.

 

[Chak Bamu]

I am glad that you also recognise Pakistan's potential.

But, sorry brother, I have to disagree with your reasons for 2nd point.
The problem isn't dealing with corrupts and criminals,
the problem is the extreme obsession Pakistanis have with corruption and so-called criminality.

Those issues exists in every country in the world, especially developing nations, including others in our region. I have a copy of a large study done around 10 years ago where it showed 1/3 of elected politicians in India had active criminal records or charges against them, including rape and murder. It also showed, having a criminal reputation increased your chances of being elected.

The corruption is also just as bad, if not worse then in Pakistan, but you don't see citizens of other countries crying and shouting about it all the time, only Pakistanis do. It creates a unfairly bad reputation. businesses decide that if they are complaining so much then it must be bad, they invest in other countries, which are just as corrupt but because of better image, it helps them.

Pakistan has corruption but it is not worse then most other countries. Our problem is the lack of right polices, lack of appropriate laws, and lack of maturity among our political leadership. It isn't corruption or criminality.

It is unfair to criticise ourselves out of proportion, it is simply unfair.

Very true.

One must understand that just as feigned religiosity is a path to power, so is an idea that corruption can be eliminated totally by a saviour messiah. We have seen this play out right in front of us. It is the age-old efficiency argument against legitimacy argument. Each & every dictator comes in with an efficiency argument & makes things much worse. Simple-minded people just do not see it.

I think as Chinese engage more with Pakistanis, they would affect a gradual change that would likely be more consequential than the weapons programs.

 

[MilSpec]

The generation old Western dream of pitting India against China. Pakistan plays the spoiler every time.

This article was a complete waste of time.

China has superior strategy. India should make peace & work for the regional connectivity & development.

How would India do that?

 

[peagle]

Very true.

One must understand that just as feigned religiosity is a path to power, so is an idea that corruption can be eliminated totally by a saviour messiah. We have seen this play out right in front of us. It is the age-old efficiency argument against legitimacy argument. Each & every dictator comes in with an efficiency argument & makes things much worse. Simple-minded people just do not see it.

I think as Chinese engage more with Pakistanis, they would affect a gradual change that would likely be more consequential than the weapons programs.

I agree 100%.
Except, I honestly have faith in our nation and our people. I do find Pakistanis very annoying, but I love their ideals, such ideals have a value of there own, annoying as they may be.

We just need uninterrupted democratic rule, and I am certain we will find a balance. Everything is about the journey, I think our journey is going beautifully, allow me to highlight few examples, they I think very easily get overlooked.

No other military takeover in the world is followed by the process of judicial legitimisation. No one does it, but every military takeover in Pakistan has been legally legitimised by a Supreme court ruling.
Pakistanis keep crying about why the supreme court has done it, but no-one for a moment has thought about why this process is beautiful, it shows deeply ingrained respect and need for the rule of law. Forget the merits or demerits of such actions, but the fact such a process is followed is beautiful in itself. To my knowledge, It doesn't happen anywhere else. They do not need to do it but we do, that's beautiful. It shows respect for rule of law and the legal process, these things make a strong society and a strong nation, a strength you can not buy or create artificially.

After a takeover, every military dictator reaches out to political actors and parties to gain political legitimacy, again it happens nowhere in the world. Usually once in-charge they do as they please, or create their own party. But not in Pakistan, the political actors, the existing political class is given space in the political structure of the country, it shows the understanding that ultimately, it's the people who are in-charge, it is the people who must rule, and be involved.

Ayub only won after a desperate fight, and even then barely made it, and opposition gave him a good fight. In which dictatorship do they have or allow active opposition? not many, none I think.
Zia, allowed the political classes to rule under the garb of neutrality, but everyone knew who belongs to which party, but the political class was very much active and involved.
Musharraf allowed full political involvement, with limited legal constraints, but they were fair constraints, not draconian by any measure. It was the dictator that freed the press, not the democrats. That is the Pakistan that makes me proud.

These are the strengths we do not recognise, but they do exist in our nation and amongst our people, that is the real Pakistan. Not the doom and gloom we hear in Sound Bites.

In just the previous decade, Indian chief justice of the supreme court shed tears in front of a prime minister in a public speech asking for more funds.

Pakistani supreme court sent one dictator home, sacked one prime minister for refusing to follow a ruling, sacked another for lying, and called another to appear before it to be answerable. I do not know how can anyone not see the beauty in such actions.

Merits or demerits of actions are different arguments, but respect for the rule of law, the desire and recognition of civilian democratic leadership form the basis of strong societies. It is always a journey, our journey has not finished, because it never finishes, one must keep striving to do better. Just look at America, one unruly president and over 200 years of democratic rule was on the chopping block. We are far too critical of ourselves.

We have our share of problems, but we are doing far far far better then we realise, far better. Like yourself, I hope more Pakistanis develop a positive and a realistic approach.

 

[Chak Bamu]

How would India do that?

Well, that is for India to decide. I am not nearly smart enough to give prescriptions. All I know that Indian strategy has a hole in it & hubris does not allow the Indian leadership see it.

I agree 100%.
Except, I honestly have faith in our nation and our people. I do find Pakistanis very annoying, but I love their ideals, such ideals have a value of there own, annoying as they may be.

We just need uninterrupted democratic rule, and I am certain we will find a balance. Everything is about the journey, I think our journey is going beautifully, allow me to highlight few examples, they I think very easily get overlooked.

No other military takeover in the world is followed by the process of judicial legitimisation. No one does it, but every military takeover in Pakistan has been legally legitimised by a Supreme court ruling.
Pakistanis keep crying about why the supreme court has done it, but no-one for a moment has thought about why this process is beautiful, it shows deeply ingrained respect and need for the rule of law. Forget the merits or demerits of such actions, but the fact such a process is followed is beautiful in itself. To my knowledge, It doesn't happen anywhere else. They do not need to do it but we do, that's beautiful. It shows respect for rule of law and the legal process, these things make a strong society and a strong nation, a strength you can not buy or create artificially.

After a takeover, every military dictator reaches out to political actors and parties to gain political legitimacy, again it happens nowhere in the world. Usually once in-charge they do as they please, or create their own party. But not in Pakistan, the political actors, the existing political class is given space in the political structure of the country, it shows the understanding that ultimately, it's the people who are in-charge, it is the people who must rule, and be involved.

Ayub only won after a desperate fight, and even then barely made it, and opposition gave him a good fight. In which dictatorship do they have or allow active opposition? not many, none I think.
Zia, allowed the political classes to rule under the garb of neutrality, but everyone knew who belongs to which party, but the political class was very much active and involved.
Musharraf allowed full political involvement, with limited legal constraints, but they were fair constraints, not draconian by any measure. It was the dictator that freed the press, not the democrats. That is the Pakistan that makes me proud.

These are the strengths we do not recognise, but they do exist in our nation and amongst our people, that is the real Pakistan. Not the doom and gloom we hear in Sound Bites.

In just the previous decade, Indian chief justice of the supreme court shed tears in front of a prime minister in a public speech asking for more funds.

Pakistani supreme court sent one dictator home, sacked one prime minister for refusing to follow a ruling, sacked another for lying, and called another to appear before it to be answerable. I do not know how can anyone not see the beauty in such actions.

Merits or demerits of actions are different arguments, but respect for the rule of law, the desire and recognition of civilian democratic leadership form the basis of strong societies. It is always a journey, our journey has not finished, because it never finishes, one must keep striving to do better. Just look at America, one unruly president and over 200 years of democratic rule was on the chopping block. We are far too critical of ourselves.

We have our share of problems, but we are doing far far far better then we realise, far better. Like yourself, I hope more Pakistanis develop a positive and a realistic approach.

And yet Pakistan sinks lower... you see beauty. I see hypocrisy. I know that dictators always feel the need for legitimacy, unlike (say) Egypt. But that is because Pakistan is a multi-ethnic polity & as such it is fragile. No wonder dictators know that they can not lord over everyone. The only thing of value that I find is that Punjabis have started to give a damn & ask questions. Earlier they just went along any ol' dictator in name of national interest.

I think we are massively off post. So I will stop it here.

 

[MilSpec]

Well, that is for India to decide. I am not nearly smart enough to give prescriptions. All I know that Indian strategy has a hole in it & hubris does not allow the Indian leadership see it.

India is merely appreciating the situation it is in, rather than situating the appreciation that you suggest. We have contested borders with two of our neighbors who have resorted to unilateral aggression and pose a grave security situation by utilizing each other to undermine India's strategic interests. That remains the reality, the level of threat and engagement is dynamic in nature and so are India's mitigation tools to cater to these threats. Realization of capabilities for mitigation takes an incredible amount of time for India given we are a resource-starved nation, with federal units and economic sustainability taking away most of the resources at the cost of defense. Both procurement and development are lackluster, so we keep lagging in developing countermeasures to the evolving threat perception in our security paradigm.

Making Peace - that is antithetical to our interests comes at a cost, which can happen if Indian defense completely collapses and security is no longer tenable. Or if we get strong enough to attain peace on our terms securing our interest which given our resource deficit and combined capability of China and Pakistan is a pipe dream. So we continue to do what little we can to manage the security situation, we will lag in creating a decisive edge, but will have enough allocation not to collapse under external pressure.

 

[Chak Bamu]

India is merely appreciating the situation it is in, rather than situating the appreciation that you suggest. We have contested borders with two of our neighbors who have resorted to unilateral aggression and pose a grave security situation by utilizing each other to undermine India's strategic interests. That remains the reality, the level of threat and engagement is dynamic in nature and so are India's mitigation tools to cater to these threats. Realization of capabilities for mitigation takes an incredible amount of time for India given we are a resource-starved nation, with federal units and economic sustainability taking away most of the resources at the cost of defense. Both procurement and development are lackluster, so we keep lagging in developing countermeasures to the evolving threat perception in our security paradigm.

Making Peace - that is antithetical to our interests comes at a cost, which can happen if Indian defense completely collapses and security is no longer tenable. Or if we get strong enough to attain peace on our terms securing our interest which given our resource deficit and combined capability of China and Pakistan is a pipe dream. So we continue to do what little we can to manage the security situation, we will lag in creating a decisive edge, but will have enough allocation not to collapse under external pressure.

Good & logical post. But it does little to suggest what could be done to break the stalemate & push for lasting peace. I was rather hoping that you would suggest something.

In any case, for a complicated situation one must find the driver (or drivers) of that situation. Unless these are addressed, nothing gets resolved satisfactorily for the longer term until some other challenge(s) crop up. Like EU of today, for example.

I will hazard a guess, but I could be way off since I am no expert:

Drivers: Pakistan - paranoia about security & obsession with Kashmir linked to security. India - security & hubris. China - security, hubris, & longer term aims (Taiwan).

Indians wish to be acknowledged as the foremost regional power & there seems to be a need / craving for respect. But the reality of India does not seem to match with the aspiration. Though there certainly are economic gains since early-mid '90s, they are simply not enough to match India's view of itself, it seems.

Chinese are perhaps over-confident, but it appears to me that the confidence masks a deep insecurity about the global politics. They want to pressurize India, even humiliate it just so they can coerce Indians to stay away from Western designs regarding China's containment. I question the wisdom for the long-term, but it may be a compulsion for Chinese due to their security concerns. Taiwan is a big issue, but perhaps not the only obsession.

Pakistan is actually a bit paranoid & one can not blame the Pakistan's security establishment since it has two unfriendly neighbors to both the East & West. Pakistan must always be prepared for a two-front war. This has been the situation since early '70s. The only lifeline Pakistan can expect is from China with whom Pakistan has aligned it's interests. It did not have to be that way. To tell you the truth, seeing Indian POWs being mistreated by Chinese pains me a bit. I derive no pleasure from the sight & it makes me feel as though a part of my (admittedly low priority) identity as Desi is impinged upon.

All three have a colonial past & have painful memories. A bit of the dynamic has that experience built into it and that feeds the paranoia & need for acknowledgement / respect / security.

I see no reason why the three countries can not or should not forsake these respective drivers. However, I really think that India does hold the key in this dynamic. That is why I think that Nawaz Sharif & Vajpayee summit in Lahore & the subsequent pushback was such a tragedy. The two countries could have settled their respective issues & moved on to a shared future. I am quite sure that Chinese would have been receptive to the peace themselves. Pakistan has some influence & it could have been (still could) used to bring the three countries closer.

 

[Dalit]

What new ,it has been doing it for decades now.

Get used to it and stop complaining.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

How would India do that?

India can create lasting peace in South Asia by ceding

Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, UP, Bihar to Pakistan

Ladakh, Uttaranchal, Sikkim, Bhutan and South Tibet to China

West Bengal and Assam to Bangladesh.

Rest of the North East and Andamans to Myanmar

Give Independence to South India