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China may be stockpiling more oil, iron ore, etc.

Stockpiling


Other than crude oil, let's check another major commodity - iron ore. Nowadays China consumes some two-third of global sea-borne iron ore, and imports is still on the rise.

iron-ore.jpg


http://www.brecorder.com/markets/co...china-iron-ore-imports-rise-in-september.html
 
Other than crude oil, let's check another major commodity - iron ore. Nowadays China consumes some two-third of global sea-borne iron ore, and imports is still on the rise.


Looks like iron ore prices are on the rise, as well. Good news for local producers, perhaps, but will likely reflect on the import figures.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=12

I was not aware of China stockpiling iron ore. China appears to have increased the amount around June-July period when prices were lower.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-in-china-post-biggest-monthly-gain-this-year
 
There was a 17 percent decline in ore prices since its peak in August. Not so good for my country.

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Iron ore price dips to within a whisker of $US55 a tonne
  • The Australian
  • 6:56AM October 4, 2016
  • Elizabeth Redman, North American Correspondent, New York
The iron ore price has slipped further and is a hair above the May Budget’s estimate of $US55 a tonne, as the commodity continues to cool from levels that were widely viewed as unsustainable.

Iron ore lost 0.2 per cent to $US55.10 overnight, according to The Steel Index, from $US55.20 the previous day.

The steelmaking ingredient has fallen 17 per cent since reaching an August peak of $US61.80, but its extended rally and delayed decline have forced many analysts to adjust their price assumptions.

Goldman Sachs last week upwardly revised its iron ore price estimate for 2016 to $US51 a tonne, slightly above a prior forecast of $US50. The modest upgrade shows that the bank still expects further falls in the near term.

Goldman is tipping a sharp drop for the commodity next year, affirming a prior forecast of $US36 a tonne for 2017. This prediction makes Goldman analysts among the most bearish on the key export’s prospects.

For 2018, 2019 and the long term, the bank is predicting iron ore to hold at just $US35 a tonne, a level which would make all but the leanest miners uncompetitive.

An iron ore price in the mid-$US30s would also put pressure on government revenue. This year’s budget predicted an average iron ore price of $US55 over the coming year, which was seen as overly optimistic, although the commodity has now managed to hold above this threshold for three months running.

But the Budget papers assume that a $US10 a tonne fall would wipe out $1.4 billion in tax revenue, meaning a drop to $US35 could cause a $2.8bn hit to federal coffers.

In London trade, BHP Billiton shares rose 1.8 per cent, while Rio Tinto added 1.2 per cent.
 
Other than crude oil, let's check another major commodity - iron ore. Nowadays China consumes some two-third of global sea-borne iron ore, and imports is still on the rise.


Looks like iron ore prices are on the rise, as well. Good news for local producers, perhaps, but will likely reflect on the import figures.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=12

I was not aware of China stockpiling iron ore. China appears to have increased the amount around June-July period when prices were lower.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-in-china-post-biggest-monthly-gain-this-year

News in May 2016, said China's Iron ore Stockpile already reach 100 Million Tonnes :china:
http://www.afr.com/business/mining/...e-stockpile-tops-100m-tonnes-20160520-gp0ete#



China's Iron Ore Stockpiles
Iron 3.jpg

Iron 4.jpg

Iron 6.jpg

Iron 8.jpg



I heard China also Stockpiling Aluminum :D

Aluminum 4.jpg


 
We are working f00king hard for the OPEC nations.

I think it is also good for China -- to decouple from the USD holdings and investing in precious materials and commodities.

The reserve currency domination of the US allows the US regime and population at large a lifestyle (and power) several times greater than the product of their hard labor. Taking away this privilege is key in order to ensure fairer redistribution of wealth from labor, of which China's economy is a significant (the most significant) part.

I guess the US Congress move on Obama's to veto the anti-Saudi legislation (came in the aftermath of OPEC production freeze agreemt) is very significant in terms of global currency politics.

US can punish smaller (and satellite) nations like Saudis (which have been exporting terrorism and its ideology for decades under British-US patronage) but have smaller teeth against heavyweights like Russia and China.

Hence, China is doing the right strategy by diversifying its currency holdings into commodities, resources and M&A.
 
Iron ore prices may head down as China cuts its steel over capacity.
That's bad news for my country.


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Iron ore price supply test ahead for miners, says DBS
Oct 4 2016 at 4:28 AM
Updated Oct 4 2016 at 3:45 PM
Financial Review

1475556335763.jpg

Australia's two biggest iron ore producers have slowed the pace of supply growth
as a decade-long expansion nears an end.

by Jasmine Ng and David Stringer

The world's largest iron ore producers will need to exert tight control over supplies to keep prices about $US45 a tonne as China's drive to weed out unwanted steel capacity poses risks to demand, according to Singapore-based DBS Group.

The commodity's rally in 2016 may come under pressure as consumption in China is poised to weaken in the coming years, chief investment officer Lim Say Boon said in a quarterly report. Iron ore was at $US55.86 a tonne on Monday, and hasn't traded below $US45 since February, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd.

Iron ore sagged in September, eroding this year's surprise advance, on resurgent concern that supply growth will again swamp the market even as some miners say they are now prioritising the value of exports over volumes. With Brazil's Vale set to start a four-year ramp-up of its S11D project, banks from Citigroup to Morgan Stanley, as well as miner BHP Billiton, have said the additional output will probably contribute to weaker prices.

"Although the price of iron ore has been in an uptrend since the start of the year, it could be difficult for the market to sustain those gains," Lim wrote in the report, which was received on Monday. It didn't list specific price forecasts. "Australian and Brazilian producers will have to maintain tight shipment discipline to keep the price" about $US45, he said.

Ore with 62 per cent content delivered to Qingdao lost 5.3 per cent in September, capping the first back-to-back monthly loss since November 2015, according to Metal Bulletin. It remains 28 per cent higher in 2016 after a three-year tumble marked by rising production and persistent global oversupply.

'It's about value'

Australia's two biggest producers have slowed the pace of supply growth as a decade-long expansion nears an end. BHP Billiton, the world's largest miner, has forecast that its mines in Australia may expand annual output by as little as 3 per cent in the 12 months to June 30.

Rio Tinto group's Jean-Sebastien Jacques, who was appointed chief executive officer in July, said the following month that its iron ore strategy "is not about volume, it's about value". The world's second-biggest exporter is adding to full-year shipments at the slowest rate since 2012, while its annual output from Australia may be unchanged in 2017 as it addresses difficulties completing an autonomous train program.

Still, plenty of banks have signalled prospects of rising low-cost supply from the largest-producing nations. Shipments from Australia will expand to 934 million tonnes in 2020 from 835 million tonnes this year, while Brazilian cargoes rise to 480 million tonnes from 371 million, Citigroup said last month. The bank reiterated its outlook for ore dropping to $US45 next year and $US38 in 2018.

Bloomberg
 

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