China July exports rise at fastest pace in seven months, 7.2% increase, but imports fall

[beijingwalker]

China July exports rise at fastest pace in seven months, 7.2% increase, but imports fall

08/06/2020 | 10:04pm EDT

China's exports rose at the fastest pace in seven months in July, while imports declined, painting a mixed picture for the economy as it recovers from its pandemic-induced slump.

Exports in July increased 7.2% from a year earlier, the fastest pace since December last year, customs data showed on Friday, confounding analysts' expectations for a 0.2% drop and quickening from a 0.5% increase in June.

Imports, on the other hand, swung back into contraction, missing market expectations for a 1.0% increase. They had bucked the trend in the previous month.

The country's trade surplus for July stood at $62.33 billion, compared with an expected $42 billion surplus forecast in the poll and a surplus of $46.42 billion in June.

"The data is in line with our forecast for exports to recover more decisively in H2 alongside the global economy," said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics research at Oxford Economics, in a note after the data release.

"However, the road ahead may be bumpy as new export orders remain weak and the recovery path will be uneven across economies."

China's economy is gradually emerging from a record contraction in the first quarter but there are doubts if the momentum can be sustained as rising coronavirus cases worldwide weigh on demand. Chinese consumption is also subdued amid job losses and concerns about a resurgence in infections.

The country's export performance, boosted by record shipments of medical supplies and robust demand for electronic products, has not been as severely affected by the global slowdown as some analysts had feared.

Imports of industrial raw materials remained robust, with record imports of iron ore and copper, along with a sharp jump in crude oil.

A point of pressure on the trade front however has been rocky U.S.-China relations, with tensions expected to escalate ahead of the United State's presidential election.

The country's trade surplus with the United States widened to $32.46 billion in July from $29.41 billion in June.

Senior U.S. and Chinese officials are set to review the implementation of the Phase 1 trade deal and likely air mutual grievances during a video conference on Aug. 15.

https://www.marketscreener.com/WTI-...ce-in-seven-months-but-imports-fall-31076120/

 

[beijingwalker]

China’s exports show surprising surge in July, as strong trade recovery from coronavirus continued

• China’s exports surged in July, with shipments well ahead of analysts’ expectations
• Imports contracted in July on a year earlier, feeding into fears over a lopsided economic recovery in Chin

Finbarr Bermingham and Orange Wang
Published: 11:22am, 7 Aug, 2020

China’s exports grew by 7.2 per cent in July from a year earlier, while imports contracted by 1.4 per cent. Photo: Reuters

China's export growth surged past expectations in July, with outbound shipments from the world’s second largest economy up 7.2 per cent from a year earlier in US dollar terms, data released by the Chinese Customs Administration on Friday showed.

Imports contracted by 1.4 per cent from a year earlier, worse than analysts’ forecasts.

A group of economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast exports to fall by 0.7 per cent in US dollar terms, while imports were predicted to rise by 0.8 per cent.

The surge in exports comes after a better-than-expected month in June, when exports returned to minor growth at 0.5 per cent. However imports have fallen back after 2.7 per cent growth in June.

China’s trade balance for July stood at US$62.33 billion, increasing from US$46.2 billion in June.


Friday’s data showed that China’s economic recovery continues to outstrip most analysts’ forecasts. Despite severe coronavirus outbreaks in key markets and lockdowns across the world, exports appeared to be sheltered from external volatility.


“The rise in exports in July implies that China’s exporters continue to defy expectations and gain global market share. Our estimates point to a further improvement in sequential volume growth following a sharp rise in June,” said Louis Kuijs, Asia-Pacific analyst at Oxford Economics.


However imports have struggled to keep pace, suggesting that China’s demand-side recovery is lagging the supply side.


Nonetheless, the world’s largest trading economy has not experienced the sort of collapse in shipments due to sagging demand in developed markets that many feared early in the pandemic. It has perhaps benefited from being the first industrial economy to be up and running, with its exporters primed to capitalise on the woes of overseas rivals.

“Chinese exports outperformed both global trade and this analyst’s own expectations by 20 to 25 per cent in the second quarter,” wrote Tomas Gatley of Gavekal Dragonomics in a note this week, adding that much of the growth was due to weakness in exports elsewhere, as well as Covid-related demands.

South China Morning Post calculations based on the customs data showed that China’s exports to the United States rose by 12.5 per cent in July, while imports from the US rose by 3.6 per cent, despite pressure for Beijing to make astronomical purchases of American goods.

This suggests that China has some way to go in meeting its trade deal commitments with the US.

Agricultural orders had surged in July, evidenced by record daily and weekly sales of corn and renewed demand for soybeans, but shipments have not followed, analysts said. Meanwhile, China has only met 5 per cent of energy purchase targets over the first half of the year.

China’s total imports of meat surged 94.8 per cent in the first seven months of the year in US dollar value terms, while grain imports rose 16.2 per cent, customs data showed.

But even at this rate, there appears to be no chance that China will make its purchase targets for 2020, with analysts quick to remind that these were considered too ambitious in the first place. This could prove a sticking point, as top negotiators
prepare to reconvene for high level talks in the next week.

From March to June, China’s trade was powered by strong shipments of emergency medical equipment and protective gear. These continued to contribute to growth in July, with the Post’s analysis of customs data showing a 78 per cent increase year-on-year in medical device shipments.

But the pace of that growth appeared waning even before the official customs numbers were released. Analysis from Panjiva Research in July revealed that previously rampant American demand for masks
, gowns and ventilators was subsiding, with the US bringing domestic production online for some products and restoring stockpiles for others.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...s-surprising-surge-july-strong-trade-recovery

 

[ToddBing]

Really bad news to some our PDF friends.
And what's worse is that if counted by RMB, it is 10.2% increase.

 

[onebyone]

Good News for US india vietgong

 

[beijingwalker]

ITORS' PICK|253 views|Aug 10, 2020,08:00am EDT
China’s Exports Finally Moving Beyond Coronavirus Supplies

An ocean-going freighter docked in Lianyungang City, Jiangsu Province, China, August 7, 2020.- (Photo by Costfoto/Barcroft Media via Getty Images)

China’s exports are no longer all about medical masks and hospital gowns (PPE), suggesting demand for other items — from sneakers to electronics — is picking up.

China's exports surprised to the upside last week with shipments up by 7.2% annualized in July, beating both June's performance and the consensus forecast on Bloomberg which was way off at -0.6%. Pandemic-related demand for medical goods continues to be strong, with medical grade masks and PPE equal to around 10% of total exports. That segment is up 51% year-over-year in July but is in decline from the 60% growth rate in June.

Barclays is estimating that the two pandemic categories contributed about 2.7 percentage points to July exports, only slightly down from 3.3percentage points of growth in June.

But the good news is that demand is now picking up in other areas. IT supplies were in demand with exports of automatic data processing machines now in positive territory.

“The strength in exports was boosted by the recovery in non-Covid related exports, as overseas economies continue to reopen,” says Jian Chang, a senior economist for Barclays in Hong Kong.

Excluding pandemic-related exports, Chang says that other exports rose for the first time in July. Non-pandemic related exports contributed 3.3 percentage points of China’s export growth.

Within the recent export figures, a narrower contraction in exports of some consumer goods going to the U.S., including clothing and footwear. Plus a recovery in exports to major trading partners.

Some new demand related to reopening has emerged. Bicycle exports rose 40% year-over-year in June.

For China watchers, better-than-expected July exports and new export orders PMI advancing to a four-month high point to GDP growth in the second half.

Barclays thinks it will grow 5.6% annualized and end the year up 2.3%, a success story if there ever was one.

Look for non-pandemic related exports to keep rising steadily as China remains the go-to hub for manufacturing and will be selling to everyone as they reopen their economies.

The biggest headwind is the rise in new cases in Australia, Japan and parts of Europe. It hasn’t led to another round of national lockdowns, but regional ones still put a damper on sentiment both for businesses and portfolio investors who are waiting to get back to some sense of normalcy by the fall.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrap...ing-beyond-coronavirus-supplies/#76dfc792a35d

 

[Han Patriot]

We exported almost 6 bil$ worth of PPEs in one month. That's alot