NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had tried to soothe a frazzled nation by saying that the Chinese incursion into Depsang Valley in eastern Ladakh on April 15 was a "localized" affair, and the government had a plan to resolve it.
But strategic experts believe this latest round of border problems between India and China is the most serious till date, and unlike the government, they don't think the Chinese are going to vacate any time soon and that this may lead to other similar face-offs in other sectors along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Bhaskar Roy, Chinese security expert, says, this time India has not depended on its own strength to stand up to China. There is a Chinese saying, "Respect the strong, blackmail the weak".
Former foreign secretary, Kanwal Sibal, observes, while the PM has suggested that the matter should not be escalated, the fact that the Chinese ambassador was summoned by the foreign secretary has already done so. Any Chinese intrusion across any point at the LAC will always be a local affair and hence, says Sibal, the implication is that the Chinese can keep doing it and we will keep reacting to it like this in the face of "uncompromising attitude of the Chinese and their determination to question our sovereignty.
Strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney says, it will be nationally demeaning if either foreign minister Salman Khurshid's visit to Beijing on May 9 or Chinese Premier Li's Keqiang trip to India on May 20 takes place while the intruders stay put and fortify their positions. Singh has given only comfort to the aggressor by his remark that the intrusion was a local affair, he says, with Beijing welcoming his comment. "To make amends, Singh should at least signal that good-neighbourly ties demand respect for the territorial status quo and that he hopes Beijing will withdraw its intruding troops so that Khurshid's Beijing visit and Premier Li's New Delhi stopover can go ahead," he says.
Jayadeva Ranade, another China expert, says, this intrusion was unprovoked, but this is not an "isolated" incident, as the government is trying to show. There have been similar incursions in many areas along the LAC particularly since 2008, he says. "Beijing remains transparently unmoved by the adverse media publicity and damage it has caused to India-China relations. It has neither moved to resolve the situation despite three flag meetings at the level of local army commanders and communications from New Delhi requesting resolution. Beijing has thus made it abundantly clear that it will defuse the situation only at a time of its choosing. Beijing's stance confirms too that the stand-off is not a local incident provoked by the action of a local commander, but one initiated with the full knowledge of China's senior leadership," Ranade explains. He says that the timing may be coinciding with Singh's Japan visit and probably be a signal from China warning India against New Delhi's Tokyo outreach. "Beijing is adept at using a blend of threats and promise of military retaliation to deter an adversary from taking actions contrary to Beijing's interests," he adds.
While the PM's statement would appear to substantiate the Indian official position that the conflicting perceptions of the LAC in the Western sector has resulted into this situation at the Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO), says Alka Acharya of the Institute of Chinese Studies, an early resolution does not seem imminent. "To that extent it is localized in northern Ladakh, south of the Karakoram Pass. But to the extent that it has brought about a situation which earlier "intrusions" did not, it has to be treated with more than the usual response," she says.
"In many ways, the responses have been initiated but the manner in which the talks are continuing, an early resolution does not seem imminent. We appear to be reaching the point where both sides are upholding the position that they are operating in their own territory- question is will both agree to restoring status quo ante," she adds.
Chinese are not going to vacate Ladakh anytime soon, strategic experts feel - The Times of India