China HSR traffic increase from 2015 to 2016 = French TGV + German ICE annual traffic

[AndrewJin]

High-speed traffic measured in passenger * km (billion)
China in 2015: 386.3
China in 2016:464.1
2015-2015 increase: 77.8, 20% yoy

SNCF in 2016: 49
DB AG in 2016: 27.2

 

[AndrewJin]

20% increase
This is the reason I hold non-positive attitudes towards China's air industry.
With more and more HSRs open especially in Western China (the next one in 2 weeks),
stories like "Chengdu-Xi'an flights number cut from 20+ per day to 1-2 per day" will repeat again and again.

I am not saying air traffic won't increase, it is actually on a relative quick rise (10%).
I believe it will inevitably surpass the current leader in the near future.
But the golden pre-HSR era is gone.

Northern China network 2020

Southern China network 2020

 

[TaiShang]

High-speed traffic measured in passenger * km (billion)
China in 2015: 386.3
China in 2016:464.1
2015-2015 increase: 77.8, 20% yoy

SNCF in 2016: 49
DB AG in 2016: 27.2

View attachment 447121 View attachment 447120 View attachment 447123

But they told China HSR would go bankrupt because there would be little ridership and aviation was the inescapable truth?

Even SP12 blames the miserable rail/road transport network on their shining aviation industry?

 

[AndrewJin]

But they told China HSR would go bankrupt because there would be little ridership and aviation was the inescapable truth?

Even SP12 blames the miserable rail/road transport network on their shining aviation industry?

I remember there was a piece of CNN news on Beijing-Shanghai HSR.
CNN prestitutes entered a 6am train before all passengers boarding (courtesy to Shanghai Hongqiao Station, they were allowed to go down to the platforms before the normal 15min rule),
then the prestitution began.

But they told China HSR would go bankrupt because there would be little ridership and aviation was the inescapable truth?

Even SP12 blames the miserable rail/road transport network on their shining aviation industry?

I hope HSR and air industry could compete and co-exist.
Every method has its pros and cons.
Flights used to be quite good for 500km-1200km routes, not anymore.
Long-distance slow trains, once the king of China's long-distance transport, could also give way to other transport methods.
Now, seats on slow trains are nearly empty for most routes.

 

[TaiShang]

I remember there was a piece of CNN news on Beijing-Shanghai HSR.
CNN prestitutes entered a 6am train before all passengers boarding (courtesy to Shanghai Hongqiao Station, they were allowed to go down to the platforms before the normal 15min rule),
then the prestitution began.

Classical CNN (Western media) presstitution. They are the loyalest dogs to their regime.

 

[AndrewJin]

Classical CNN (Western media) presstitution. They are the loyalest dogs to their regime.

My major concern about China's HSR network is insufficient planning and inadequate supply of bullet trains.
Now, cities along Yangtze River are still competing for a station of the new Shanghai-Wuhan-Chengdu HSR.
But why not just build two?
So many big cities, why ditch a 3-million-people one for a 5-million-people one?

Why are we forced into so many competitions just for a stop?
Why the plan is to just cover 80% big cities?
Big in what sense?
Ridiculous....

Future 350km/h Shanghai-Wuhan-Chengdu HSR
Wuhan and Yichang will of course have stations.
But how about the cites in between?
There are 30 million people in this region!

You can also see the expressway network on this map....
West-east corridors just 2.....
So many big towns have no express access to Wuhan.....
Traffic jams everyday in the middle of the countryside
Absurd.....

There are 30 million people in this region......

 

[Viet]

ok China has more people and plays catching up game. Anyway in respect to Germany and France HSR, both ICe and TGV had seen their best days in the past that seem will never come back in the future. I frequently take HSR on different occasions but experienced disappointing moments lately. The last things travel customers want to see are high prized tickets but dirty rail stations, old wagons und unfriendly service.

 

[武成王]

20% increase
This is the reason I hold non-positive attitudes towards China's air industry.
With more and more HSRs open especially in Western China (the next one in 2 weeks),
stories like "Chengdu-Xi'an flights number cut from 20+ per day to 1-2 per day" will repeat again and again.

I am not saying air traffic won't increase, it is actually on a relative quick rise (10%).
I believe it will inevitably surpass the current leader in the near future.
But the golden pre-HSR era is gone.

Northern China network 2020
View attachment 447124

Southern China network 2020
View attachment 447125

I'm in fact pretty optimistic about China's aerial industry. The HSR growth is near its end in China since major regions are already interconnected with high speed railway. The development of HSR is indeed a miracle since 2/3 of China's land is mountainous, not an ideal condition for HSR.

The aerial industry is on rise. You can think this way, although HSR compete with airlines for customers however this will in turn force COMAC to offer competitive airplanes by innovation and force Boeing and Airbus to lower their price, they currently have too much profit margin.

This definitely will promote the competence of China indigenous aerial industry. I believe many travelers prefer airplane if the ticket price is competitive enough. The only concern is oil price.

 

[AndrewJin]

ok China has more people and plays catching up game. Anyway in respect to Germany and France HSR, both ICe and TGV had seen their best days in the past that seem will never come back in the future. I frequently take HSR on different occasions but experienced disappointing moments lately. The last things travel customers want to see are high prized tickets but dirty rail stations, old wagons und unfriendly service.

There are still new HSRs (really HSRs, not the upgraded German ones) open in France.
Germany needs massive investment....Though, it seems quite impossible....

I'm in fact pretty optimistic about China's aerial industry. The HSR growth is near its end in China since major regions are already interconnected with high speed railway. The development of HSR is indeed a miracle since 2/3 of China's land is mountainous, not an ideal condition for HSR.

The aerial industry is on rise. You can think this way, although HSR compete with airlines for customers however this will in turn force COMAC to offer competitive airplanes by innovation and force Boeing and Airbus to lower their price, they currently have too much profit margin.

This definitely will promote the competence of China indigenous aerial industry. I believe many travelers prefer airplane if the ticket price is competitive enough. The only concern is oil price.

If you mean double digit growth like 20-30% or even 50%, of course it has ended.
Projected growth for flights for the next a couple of years is around 10%.
You can say this to both transport methods.
My disappointment about air industry is that its growth is nearly fuelled by domestic manufacturing
(though they are catching up, but when?)
And its implications on regional economy is minimum.

 

[武成王]

There are still new HSRs (really HSRs, not the upgraded German ones) open in France.
Germany needs massive investment....Though, it seems quite impossible....


If you mean double digit growth like 20-30% or even 50%, of course it has ended.
Projected growth for flights for the next a couple of years is around 10%.
You can say this to both transport methods.
My disappointment about air industry is that its growth is nearly fuelled by domestic manufacturing
(though they are catching up, but when?)
And its implications on regional economy is minimum.

China's aviation industry is on the edge of technical breakthrough, I believe we will witness a remarkable progress within 10 years. As I mentioned earlier, the major regions of economic and inhabitants area of China are already interconnected by HSR. Branch airline can be good complement for sparse populated and mountainous region. It's impossible or exorbitantly cost to build HSR for such regions.

 

[AndrewJin]

China's aviation industry is on the edge of technical breakthrough, I believe we will witness a remarkable progress within 10 years. As I mentioned earlier, the major regions of economic and inhabitants area of China are already interconnected by HSR. Branch airline can be good complement for sparse populated and mountainous region. It's impossible or exorbitantly cost to build HSR for such regions.

Branch airports are in massive loss because regional China does not has enough long-distance traffic.
See the airport in Shiyan.....
But Shiyan needs Xi'an-Shiyan-Wuhan HSR.
Because people there mainly go to Wuhan or Xi'an, they don't need to go to Harbin or Chengdu.
Routes like Dali/Tengchong-Chengdu, needs more air traffic, but that is not the mainstream of China.
One of the mainstream, Chengdu-Xi'an, already sees complete failure for air industry.

The future growth, according to various reports, is mostly about international traffic, or very long-distance traffic like you mentioned Guangzhou-Urumqi, or Chengdu-Beijing....
I don't think branch airline is a good model for China.
China has completely different demographic and regional makeup compared to US.
if China's air industry has little future in China's mainstream (cities between Beijing/Shanghai/Chengdu/Guangzhou), how could I be convinced there is another golden era?
(20% of HSR or 10% air traffic?).

I believe the breakthrough you talked about, but that is technology wise.
I am more concerned about the changing habits of traffic.
These are two dimensions.
I agree with you on the dimension of technology and manufacturing, but not the dimension of the traffic volume.
The breakthrough, I think, is not about crazy growth of volume, but reshaping of the supply of planes.
We are essentially talking about different issues.

 

[武成王]

Branch airports are in massive loss because regional China does not has enough long-distance traffic.
See the airport in Shiyan.....
But Shiyan needs Xi'an-Shiyan-Wuhan HSR.
Because people there mainly go to Wuhan or Xi'an, they don't need to go to Harbin or Chengdu.
Routes like Dali/Tengchong-Chengdu, needs more air traffic, but that is not the mainstream of China.
One of the mainstream, Chengdu-Xi'an, already sees complete failure for air industry.

The future growth, according to various reports, is mostly about international traffic, or very long-distance traffic like you mentioned Guangzhou-Urumqi, or Chengdu-Beijing....
I don't think branch airline is a good model for China.
China has completely different demographic and regional makeup compared to US.
if China's air industry has little future in China's mainstream (cities between Beijing/Shanghai/Chengdu/Guangzhou), how could I be convinced there is another golden era?
(20% of HSR or 10% air traffic?).

I believe the breakthrough you talked about, but that is technology wise.
I am more concerned about the changing habits of traffic.
These are two dimensions.
I agree with you on the dimension of technology and manufacturing, but not the dimension of the traffic volume.
The breakthrough, I think, is not about crazy growth of volume, but reshaping of the supply of planes.
We are essentially talking about different issues.

I'm not advocating that airline will be on par with HSR in domestic volume wise, it's impossible.

 

[TaiShang]

My major concern about China's HSR network is insufficient planning and inadequate supply of bullet trains.
Now, cities along Yangtze River are still competing for a station of the new Shanghai-Wuhan-Chengdu HSR.
But why not just build two?
So many big cities, why ditch a 3-million-people one for a 5-million-people one?

Why are we forced into so many competitions just for a stop?
Why the plan is to just cover 80% big cities?
Big in what sense?
Ridiculous....

I guess budgetary constraints and also the risk of over-investment force decision makers to be extremely cautious (and competitive) in building new lines.

It is a matter of maturity, I guess. Once the priority lines are complete and traffic is generated, then, secondary lines will likely be built. In some cases, the secondary lines can use some of the infrastructure (such as stations) already built.

So, I guess it still makes sense even though it may create grievances and feelings of being left behind.

 

[Viet]

There are still new HSRs (really HSRs, not the upgraded German ones) open in France.
Germany needs massive investment....Though, it seems quite impossible....


If you mean double digit growth like 20-30% or even 50%, of course it has ended.
Projected growth for flights for the next a couple of years is around 10%.
You can say this to both transport methods.
My disappointment about air industry is that its growth is nearly fuelled by domestic manufacturing
(though they are catching up, but when?)
And its implications on regional economy is minimum.

Germany invests money into rail infrastructure but many people here think she does too little too late. The new railway Munich-Berlin 630km costs some $14 billion and needs 25 years to be realized. I think if we implement German technology in VN that would cost us $42 billion for the north-south route. still cheaper than with the Japanese.

@Götterdämmerung
@Georg