China Has Been Inflating Its Exports Numbers All Year, In Some Cases Doubli

[Hellraiser007]

Maybe your politicians should make realistic statement and stop daydreaming!

Why should I chest thumb for someone I have no advantage of (with the exception that they buy ship loads of our products)? I'm just happy that we are doing well despite the Euro crisis thanks to our exports to China.

Of course you can't follow the Chinese model, because for that you need a set of competent politicians and educated workers in the hundred millions.

Business model have nothing to do with politicians, it is based on conditions are goals of a particular country, Chinese are known for producing cheap goods and pirated products. We go for quality.

 

[Cyberian]

Yes I know those stats but every thing is not as it seems in China. The stats which are the basis for GDP estimates are always inflated so that the higher level officials will be pleased. Please go through the article mentioned in my above post.

...

On the contrary, Chinese government always releases understated figures for their economy which are gradually increased later in the year. The world isn't that stupid that they would put more than $111 billion into Chinese FDI each year if they were suspicious about Chinese GDP figures.

Therefore, again my question is as I asked previously, what is the likely size of the Chinese Nominal GDP if it's not $8.2 trillion for 2012? Is it $6 trillion, $4 trillion, $1 trillion, etc.?

 

[Hellraiser007]

On the contrary, Chinese government always releases understated figures for their economy which are gradually increased later in the year. The world isn't that stupid that they would put more than $111 billion into Chinese FDI if they were suspicious about Chinese GDP figures.

Therefore, again my question is as I asked previously, what is the likely size of the Chinese Nominal GDP if it's not $8.2 trillion for 2012? Is it $6 trillion, $4 trillion, $1 trillion, etc.?

According to the reports commissars are inflating the GDP figures by 10 %. They are doing it over the years.

 

[Cyberian]

According to the reports commissars are inflating the GDP figures by 10 %. They are doing it over the years.

OK. So, if the Chinese have been inflating the figures by 10% each year for a number of years, what is the true figure likely to be? Where does it fall on on the graph? Is it less than Japanese Nominal GDP of $6 trillion or more?

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

No one is questioning about China's GDP so far, but the same cannot be said for India.

Devinder Sharma: Is India's GDP Growth for Real?

 

[faithfulguy]

Business model have nothing to do with politicians, it is based on conditions are goals of a particular country, Chinese are known for producing cheap goods and pirated products. We go for quality.

Go for quality? India has virtually no manufacturing base for that size of a country. If you want to make fun of others, at least be better yourself. Just claim that you go for qualify wouldn't cut it. That just make you look small. Stop make fun of others unless you are better than them. In this case, your country clearly is not better.

According to the reports commissars are inflating the GDP figures by 10 %. They are doing it over the years.

In reality, China do over report their figure some times. At other times, they under report. So in a long run, the number come out relatively accurate. But I suspect even most western countries do that. That trick is need to control consumer confidence and inflation.

 

[FaujHistorian]

China Has Been Inflating Its Exports Numbers All Year, In Some Cases Doubling The Actual Figures


China has over-reported its exports for the last five months, inflating the apparent demand for its products overseas, according to a new research report.
Official customs data showed a surge in exports, but imports reported by trading partners don’t match up. Capital Economics, a research firm, estimated the actual exports expanded only half the 17 percent year-over-year rate reported by customs for the first four months of 2013.

China’s statistics bureau, which usually skirts the limelight, produced what Capital called a “little-watched estimate” of industrial sales for export.

How come so many Indians are doing half @rse comments on something they have not studied?



Even though the data seems to support the notion, but it is utterly false.


Export numbers are out of whack mainly in relation to Hong Kong.


You know why?


Chinese factory owners are using a loophole in Chinese government's currency policies where you can get much better deal on interest and other charges if you show that you are using that money (Letter of credit) for exports.

This loophole means you can show inflated exports to Honk Kong and as a result pocket the money earned in interest rate difference and other such monetary loopholes.

Chinese Customs head was bombarded with questions and some investigation is in progress.

Granted that the factory owners on mainland cannot run these schemes without "insiders" in Chinese government.


However spreading rumors that Chinese government is inflating numbers is just plain wrong.



Bottom line.

Understand the topic, do some research before posting half @rse stuff.


peace

 

[chinapakistan]

Business model have nothing to do with politicians, it is based on conditions are goals of a particular country, Chinese are known for producing cheap goods and pirated products. We go for quality.

If manufacturing nothing means good quality, NK is better than you.

 

[Audio]

You can't inflate or deflate export figures because you need the importing countries to doctore the figures according to your doctored stats as well.

Some people are just too stupid and just like to believe what they want to believe.

The export growth has been attributed to a boom in trade between the mainland and Hong Kong during the first three months of the year, which saw a 71.2% increase from the same period last year.
The surge in trade between the mainland and Hong Kong was thanks to increased trade between the city and Guangdong province, which reached US$84.26 billion in the first quarter of this year, up 91.6%s from 2012, the report said.

Exports from the free trade zones in Shenzhen to Hong Kong grew 8.8 times in the first quarter of 2013 compared with the same period last year, the report added.

Trade between Hong Kong and Guangdong artificially skewed

EU, US trade with China slumps, but have no fear, here's Hong Kong to the rescue, i'm sure they still have some room for imported goods from China in those 5 room apartments they all have.

Your last sentence is irony in it's purest form. Everything you asked in your post is answered by my quote, it's just a question if you will want to believe it.

However spreading rumors that Chinese government is inflating numbers is just plain wrong.

Deliberately inflated figures from local officials are largely to blame, domestic media reported, as officials seek promotion for delivering the high growth demanded by the state.

The Phantom Province in China's Economy - NYTimes.com

A good article from China, so you don't say i feed you only NY Times:

Province-sized hole in GDP figures from Beijing is likely to be hiding good news | South China Morning Post

While your observation about getting a better deal through loopholes is spot on, it does not explain the drastic increase from Shenzhen, Guangdong, which is a trade free zone and there are no customs for which you exploit loop holes in the first place.
There is a thing called "export tax rebate" in Shenzhen though, but imho this isn't really a loophole but government sanctioned subsidizing to the range of 160 bill.$ in 2012. Interesting bit of info is the amount is up more then 10% from 2011.

Additionally, if the loop hole theory is correct, there should have been a corresponding increase of exports from Hong Kong, which hasn't happened.

Outbound shipments from Hong Kong fell 16.9 percent from a year earlier, the city’s Census and Statistics Department said today. Hong Kong said imports from China dropped 18 percent, while China’s customs administration said March 8 that shipments to the city rose 35.6 percent.

Hong Kong Trade Slides With Imports Contradicting China Data - Bloomberg

Note the discrepancy in the above article what Beijing reports and what Hong Kong reports.

 

[FaujHistorian]

.....

While your observation about getting a better deal through loopholes is spot on,......

Thanks.

.....
.. it does not explain the drastic increase from Shenzhen, Guangdong, which is a trade free zone and there are no customs for which you exploit loop holes in the first place.....

It is not "customs" loop hole, it is a banking/currency loophole being exploited by "exporting" Chinese and "importing" Hong Kong based companies. Actually value of goods is much less.

Ok.

Now don't try to do this at home.

For every million dollar LC (letter of credit), parties involved make around $4500 free money.

It goes on even in Pakistan and India, but on much lower level (especially in case of Pakistan), so it doesn't show up in the overall numbers.


peace

p.s. I am not an official spokesman of Chinese government. Just trying to keep the history straight. Thank you.

 

[Audio]

...

If this is all a hoax, it goes like this-make goods, export to HK to collect the tax rebate, import back to China to sell and collect profit.
Why is Hong kong then reporting a decrease of imports from the mainland and the mainland is reporting an increase?

p.s. I am not an official spokesman of Chinese government. Just trying to keep the history straight.

I know you are not, that's why you got so many and so diverse links, so you can go and see that something smells funny for yourself.

 

[FaujHistorian]

If this is all a hoax, it goes like this-make goods, export to HK to collect the tax rebate, import back to China to sell and collect profit.
Why is Hong kong then reporting a decrease of imports from the mainland and the mainland is reporting an increase?...

Bro,

You are trying to "over-think" this from the actual goods being exported.

Please do not let your CPU overheat on this.

The loopholes are not about a chair exported to HK, and then being sent back to mainland.


No Siree.


The loopholes are in the bank statements and in the LC papers.


peace

 

[SR-91]

On the contrary, Chinese government always releases understated figures for their economy which are gradually increased later in the year. The world isn't that stupid that they would put more than $111 billion into Chinese FDI each year if they were suspicious about Chinese GDP figures.

Therefore, again my question is as I asked previously, what is the likely size of the Chinese Nominal GDP if it's not $8.2 trillion for 2012? Is it $6 trillion, $4 trillion, $1 trillion, etc.?

No one knows what the true numbers are. china is a communist country,its not a market driven country.what that means is their leaders decide the direction and outcome.no one is allowed to question their govt,whatever they say gets written on stone,nonnegotiable.period. read further.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432421-how-fake-exports-caused-the-yuan-rally

 

[Psyops]

Funny how a backward country like India laughing at a superior country like China. It's like a garbage collector laughing at a banker.
Indians try hard to be as important and as powerful as us, but they ALWAYS fall short. It's because Indians are indisciplined people with a very corrupt and ill mannered culture. Some of it is due to the lower IQ of Indians compared to Chinese people. It's also because Indians have a slave mentality to the white race, while we consider ourselves equal to the white race. This is why we are ALWAYS ahead of India as a country and as a civilisation. It's not a surprise why we slaughtered the goo out of the Indian military in 1962, 1967 and 1987.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Funny how a backward country like India laughing at a superior country like China. It's like a garbage collector laughing at a banker.
Indians try hard to be as important and as powerful as us, but they ALWAYS fall short. It's because Indians are indisciplined people with a very corrupt and ill mannered culture. Some of it is due to the lower IQ of Indians compared to Chinese people. It's also because Indians have a slave mentality to the white race, while we consider ourselves equal to the white race. This is why we are ALWAYS ahead of India as a country and as a civilisation. It's not a surprise why we slaughtered the goo out of the Indian military in 1962, 1967 and 1987.

All races are equal, but the slave mentality will sink itself lower than others.