China GDP growth reaches 6.6% in 2018: NBS

[Viva_Viet]

According to the newspapers here in australia, China's gdp in 2019 will be 6.1%. Is this true?

In VN news,its 6,6 too. And lower than 6,8% of 2017.

 

[Feng Leng]

The solution is China 2025. Before the tariffs and rejection of trade parity, business could be had, no need for China 2025. But trump want to destroy China's growth and China's rise. trump want to steal that from China because the States is a hell hole. So go fully toward China 2025 with target GDP's of 15-20+% a year.

If trump's goal is to destroy trade with China, as trump trolls desire on the forum, let China prepare with full sourcing of all production in China, by 2025. Let the Europeans know this so they get the mad insane trump off of China's case.

Firstly, target everything China buys as products imported from Amerika for elimination of trade, China will produce it by 2025.

I totally agree. The past 40 years of ideological failure has spawned this idea among the Chinese middle class and up that China and US have no choice but to get along. That view is wrong on so many levels but to put it simply the Anglosphere sees Chinese as a civilization threat that must be castrated and raped. For me, the only question is whether we preemptively hit them with nukes or we wait until armed conflict begins and then gradually escalate to a nuclear exchange.

Internally, yes, we move up the value chain as quickly as we can. Of course we are not going to be the world's sweatshop or the world's place for dumping pollutants and garbage forever. Just as importantly, we need to open up Xinjiang style re-education camps all over China to deal with the fifth column. Probably around 5% of the middle class and up are fifth column and need to spend some time in the re-education camps.

(The following is "required reading" for other PDF members who do not understand modern China.)

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chin...istakes-hu-deping.597308/page-2#post-11109922

 

[Viva_Viet]

I totally agree. The past 40 years of ideological failure has spawned this idea among the Chinese middle class and up that China and US have no choice but to get along. That view is wrong on so many levels but to put it simply the Anglosphere sees Chinese as a civilization threat that must be castrated and raped. For me, the only question is whether we preemptively hit them with nukes or we wait until armed conflict begins and then gradually escalate to a nuclear exchange.

Internally, yes, we move up the value chain as quickly as we can. Of course we are not going to be the world's sweatshop or the world's place for dumping pollutants and garbage forever. Just as importantly, we need to open up Xinjiang style re-education camps all over China to deal with the fifth column. Probably around 5% of the middle class and up are fifth column and need to spend some time in the re-education camps.

(The following is "required reading" for other PDF members who do not understand modern China.)

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/chin...istakes-hu-deping.597308/page-2#post-11109922

A so called "modern CN" is just a stupid , usless system just like your CN usless/barren land wt full of dumb peasants ( like Deng,Xi, Huawei Ren etc) who only good at rasing pigs in Mao's era.

 

[Yaseen1]

now china is producing high quality products much better than in past and new brands so this rate is very good

 

[Han Patriot]

Wow, u never read Karl Marx book ??Private companies control capitalist Govt.

Learn more before opening mouth

Exactly, Karl Marx also said capitalist will sell you the rope to hang them. . And you think Trump controls the government and can dictate whether we only buy weapons and not oil,gas, meat, grain? .....

Hell if they want to sell weapons, I would be even happier.

 

[Mista]

China is likely to be a developed country before 2030.(It's most possible to reach that target in 2028)
Conservatively speaking, three years later, China is no longer a middle income country.(GDP per capita > $12735)
Middle income trap, now it seems to be a joke for us.

'Middle-income trap' is a joke in the first place. The threshold ($12,735) is fixed and it's adjusted only for inflation every year. Which means that all countries will eventually breach it as long as real GDP per capita is growing, whether it's 2% or 6%. The poster countries for middle-income trap in Latin America (Argentina, Chile, Panama, Uruguay etc) have already breach into high-income.

其实，虽然门槛线会根据物价进行调整，但扣除物价因素之后的门槛线“真实水平”相对固定。由于世界经济整体发展水平在提升，所以长期来看，高收入门槛线相对于全球和发达国家人均国民总收入水平的比例都呈现降低态势。在20世纪90年代初，高收入门槛线相当于美国人均国民总收入水平的30%左右，而2016年仅相当于后者的22%。同期，高收入门槛线也由全球人均国民总收入的1.8倍左右降低到不足1.2倍。

In the early 1990s, the high-income threshold was equivalent to about 30% of the average national income of the Americans, while in 2016 it was only 22% of the latter. In the same period, the high-income threshold was also reduced to less than 1.2 times from 1.8 times the global per capita gross national income.

http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2018-01/14/nw.D110000renmrb_20180114_2-05.htm

US GNI per capita: $58K
30%: $17.4K

World average GNI per capita: $10K
1.8x: $18K

So if we use relativity of income from the 1990s as the basis for classification of high-income economies instead of absolute real income, the threshold should be around $18K instead of $12K.

Greece will be the cut-off country if the threshold is $18K. This makes more sense to me as I think a high-income country should minimally be at Greece level.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Next year: 100+ trillion Yuan?

@long_ , @cirr , @Han Patriot

That would entail a nominal GDP growth of 11.1%, which means some seriously dangerous inflation.
2 years.

 

[HariPrasad]

6.6 pc is very good.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

6.6 pc is very good.

It is not. A country with approximately 10.000 USD per capita income has to growth much faster to catch up with the Western world. Besides, almost every single figure from China is manipulated. For instance, European experts say that the real growth number is between 2% to 4%. China right now is not doing well.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/20/business/china-economy-growth-davos.html

And, yes, I know that Turkey is not doing good as well.

 

[nang2]

It is not. A country with approximately 10.000 USD per capita income has to growth much faster to catch up with the Western world. Besides, almost every single figure from China is manipulated. For instance, European experts say that the real growth number is between 2% to 4%. China right now is not doing well.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/20/business/china-economy-growth-davos.html

And, yes, I know that Turkey is not doing good as well.

The actual rate by itself doesn't matter much. A stable society can grow quite fast even with low rate thanks to the magic of compounding. On the contrary, an unstable society can set back quickly and cancel out any growth accomplished by fast growth rate. The low rate only becomes an issue if it is after higher investment growth rate. That means the capability of growing wealth is now deteriorating.

 

[Foxtrot Delta]

6.6% GDP is growth is huge!! For an economy with size of china,japan usa. 6.6 to 7 % will ensure china gets to be number one with in 5 to 8 years.

 

[HariPrasad]

It is not. A country with approximately 10.000 USD per capita income has to growth much faster to catch up with the Western world. Besides, almost every single figure from China is manipulated. For instance, European experts say that the real growth number is between 2% to 4%. China right now is not doing well.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/20/business/china-economy-growth-davos.html

And, yes, I know that Turkey is not doing good as well.

I know they hypes everything right from economy to their substandard weapons. There was a news that their government over stated GDP by 900 bn USD. What I say is 6.6 pc is a very good. Can't say if it is overstated.

 

[Realtalk108]

It is not. A country with approximately 10.000 USD per capita income has to growth much faster to catch up with the Western world. Besides, almost every single figure from China is manipulated. For instance, European experts say that the real growth number is between 2% to 4%. China right now is not doing well.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/20/business/china-economy-growth-davos.html

And, yes, I know that Turkey is not doing good as well.

No idea how long China will grow at this speed but holy cow! I just realized China has almost caught up with Turkey. As per IMF, in 2018 China is ~$10,000 and Turkey is $11,000.

 

[zectech]

The new normal. Slower, but more stable, more manageable, more value-added quality growth. I guess that was the plan well back in 2013.

***

China's property investment up 9.5 pct in 2018

(Xinhua) 10:48, January 21, 2019

BEIJING, Jan. 21 (Xinhua) -- China's investment in property development grew 9.5 percent year on year in 2018, 2.5 percentage points faster than the pace in 2017, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Monday.

The total property investment last year surpassed 12 trillion yuan (about 1.77 trillion U.S. dollars), the NBS said.

The investment in residential buildings, accounting for more than 70 percent of the total, rallied 13.4 percent from a year ago in 2018, speeding up from the 9.4-percent increase in 2017.

Monday's data also showed buildings with a total of 1.72 billion square meters in floor area were sold last year, 1.3 percent higher than 2017. The sales in value gained 12.2 percent to 15 trillion yuan.

Home sales increased 2.2 percent in floor area and 14.7
percent in value.

http://en.people.cn/business/n3/2019/0121/c90778-9539782.html

Get all the rich Chinese in the States to dump their worthless properties in Amerika and buy China.

 

[TaiShang]

Economic structure is optimizing

China Daily, January 22, 2019

China's economic structure has continued to optimize, as new growth drivers strengthened last year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.

The value added of the tertiary sector increased by 7.6 percent year-on-year to 46.96 trillion yuan ($6.92 trillion) in 2018, accounting for 52.2 percent of the country's gross domestic product, up by 0.3 percentage point from 2017. The growth rate of the value added of the tertiary sector was 1.8 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry.

The role of consumption as a main driver of economic growth has further consolidated. Final consumption expenditure accounted for 76.2 percent of GDP growth last year, rising by 18.6 percentage points year-on-year.

China has also firmly pushed ahead with green development. The country's energy consumption for every 10,000 yuan of its GDP fell 3.1 percent year-on-year in 2018. Its structure of energy consumption has kept improving, with the proportion of clean energy in the total energy consumption increasing by about 1.3 percentage points from the previous year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

"In spite of the increasing pressure on growth deceleration at the present stage, two major factors are consolidating the basis of Chinese economic growth. On the one hand, the quality of the economy is steadily improving, as further promotion of economic structure optimization and the development of high-end manufacturing continuously improves production efficiency," said Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International Holdings Ltd, in a research note.

"On the other hand, relatively loose fiscal policy is speeding up to take effect, which will underpin the economy and help relieve structural bottlenecks of the monetary policy," Cheng said.

He noted that in 2018, year-on-year growth of the value added of the high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and strategic emerging industries was 5.5, 1.9 and 2.7 percentage points higher respectively, than that of industrial enterprises above designated size－referring to industrial enterprises with an annual main business revenue of 20 million yuan or more.

During the same period, the growth of private investment increased by 2.7 percentage points, showing that market forces have driven up financial supply to high-quality businesses. The year-on-year growth of investment in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing was 6.6 and 1.6 percentage points higher than that of the overall manufacturing industry respectively.

Ning Jizhe, commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, said on Monday that China has ample room for macro policy support.

Looking ahead, a new round of policies to stabilize the economy is likely to be carried out in multiple aspects in 2019, based on abundant room for internal policies and the demand to resist pressure from external factors, economists said.

According to Cheng, an expected increase in the quota for local government bond issuance this year may help infrastructure investment to grow by 8 percent. Furthermore, the People's Bank of China, the central bank, is expected to implement reserve requirement ratio cuts or targeted RRR cuts by no less than 250 basis points for the whole year. In view of this, China will still hold the bottom line of stabilizing the economy and preventing risks this year.

"We believe that the start of spring is not far away from the big chill. It is highly possible that the Chinese economy will stabilize and rebound in the first quarter of 2019, and the growth will hopefully exceed market expectations," he said.

Countercyclical regulation, or efforts to stabilize the economy so that growth will not slow down too fast, is a major goal to achieve in the next two years, apart from supply-side structural reform, said Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas.

It is imperative for China to have a larger-scale reduction of taxes and fees, as the effects of fiscal policy on containing rapid slowdown of growth are considered increasingly important, according to Chen.

"Tax and fee cuts will hopefully reach 2 trillion yuan in 2019, the equivalent of about 2 percent of China's GDP for the whole year," he said.

Data from the Ministry of Finance show that the country reduced taxes and fees by about 1.3 trillion yuan last year.

Chen also advised the government to spur loan demand of large and medium-sized enterprises by approving infrastructure construction projects, in addition to satisfying the credit needs of small and micro-sized enterprises.

http://www.china.org.cn/business/2019-01/22/content_74397287.htm