China faces 'unstoppable' population decline by mid-century

[jamahir]

population of Africa will be huge at that time of century and china can easily manage to import 5-10 million skilled immigrants (in 7-8 years span) from Africa, India, Pakistan and such other countries.

I presume you are talking about year 2100.

By then, population control will not be a problem because there are quite a few places on Earth that presently have small to almost none population - Greenland, Antarctic, Sahara, Siberia etc. I think climate change will be make it easier for such places to become habitable. I will further say that there will be a single world governance system instead of there being individual countries. This is natural.

Plus, by 2100 there will be settlements on Mars and the Moon. No doubt about that.

but with this fast innovative world we will need half of workforce that we need today to do a particular task in an industry.

@jamahir , @Joe Shearer
Your take on this

Exactly !!

Technologies like 3D Printing, Artificial Meat and Robotics will need less workforce than now, and will release more people into more intellectual and artistic work.

 

[RealNapster]

Let me start backwards, @RealNapster, you first. You mentioned the possibility of reversing the unstoppable drop in growth, and you mentioned immigration as a remedy. First, it is impossible to see the reversing of the unstoppable drop in growth; we have before us a population that is already used to comfort and to lack of competition inside the family. This population is 'empowered', by its own estimation and also by the social sanctions extended in its favour by the administrative authorities; certainly, the Chinese population is no longer inured to struggle in order to survive.

The second issue is of substitution by immigration. Unlikely.

More than fifteen years ago, the impact of this same phenomenon started hitting Japan. Their work-force declined, their ageing population increased, their population of future workers was declining fastest. As a result of very demanding working hours, and the increasing consumerism and expectations of comfort levels, their marriage rate also declined. At the time that I last checked, official sources reported a shortfall of around 15000 engineers a year.

Immigration was tried. It failed.

The Japanese, and the Chinese, as the world will soon find out, are unable to co-exist with those who are not like them. Even Filipinos and Koreans had problems with them. There is no question of floods of south Asians or Africans resettling in either country to tide over their own replacement problems

My apologies if i used the word “reverse” along the word “unstopable decline in population growth”. I was more concerned about the “labor force” part of OP. Which i suggested that China can alwaya import immigrants (not citizens) in 5-10 million count to “reduce” the adverse effect of declining population on everyday life of a common chinese. As we see today, China is the fastest growing country for mobile payments, it started introducing robots as waiters in resturants, China is building “factory robots” in 200-300k count per year. So inshort, the need for “labor” will reduce more then half. So (let say) Today China need 30 million labora to do all these business,household,manufacturing etc activities, as per my guess they would need half of that by 2035. So the need for humans to run business is already reduced with the innovation amd automation in industry and households. The other half part will be effected from this decline in labor (skilled and non-skilled) force. Which CAN BE reduced by introducing foreigners and immigrants.

And yes you mentioned Example of japan. Its strange that why the hell they asked those immigrants to pack their bags while they badly needed them ? Still, yes Chinese are not that comfortable with other races, but tell me how open were they in 1980’s ? Can i say China and its society is more welcoming to foreigners then it used to be in 80’s and 90’s ? If yes, then i see this (Opening of society for foreigners) even grow. China is a very sensible country in the hands of sensible peoples. I dont think they will repeat the same mistake that Japan did. China will learn from the mistakes of japs (thats what i assumed in my mind).

I won't be there to see 2050, but you will, and remember then, I TOLD YOU SO.

Haha. Its not on age. Though age increases the possibility of death but, some die at 10. Some even at birth. Some stay for a century and more. You will be here Inshallah. Just sign for the 72 houris .

Coming to defence. The down-sizing of defence organisations will continue, and the surge of technical innovation and cyber-warfare will continue. Future Chinese warfare will be waged on the electronic waves, not on the oceans, not on the mountains. They will conduct tight inland surveillance, and send in personnel only on a hunt-and-kill mission. In spite of their best efforts, their attempt to swamp Xijang or Tibet with larger numbers of Han colonisers will fail. Their attempts at bottling up Islamic tendencies in Xinjiang will also fail.

They will patrol with remote-controlled vehicles and aerial units (and remote controlled powered naval units as well), follow up with missiles, of short-, medium- and long-range, and commit personnel only in the most dire of emergencies. This means that slowly but inexorably, they will switch over to remote 24 hr inspection of borders, with intervention squads ready to move in less than the time taken for it to move out on a periodic route march and return.

Beyond the borders, there will be no major flash points after 2030, give or take 5-years. The dashes on their maps will remain, the reefs shored up into islands will continue, their naval build-up three vessels per class will continue, their ripped-off aircraft will be jammed with their own nationalisations of existing imported equipment. As a consequence, their performance will continue to be rated at 60 to 80% of the originals. But everything will converge towards remote-controlled unmanned equipment, and very strong communications.

In the unfortunate event that wars, or at least border conflicts, have to be fought, their military organisation will terrify any typical enemy. Missiles, surface to surface missiles, will play a major role; massed artillery will be the mainstay, however, and their opening, or supporting barrages will be followed up by the advance of wheeled or tracked remote controlled scout cars and light tanks, with self-loading ordnance and unified remote controlled target acquisition and fire control. Their skills in advanced electronics will continue to be advanced, possibly in partnership with Japanese or South Korean technological assistance, partnership or collaboration. As a result, their knowledge of battlefields will be very accurate, offering multimedia oversight of events in real time. Their domination of the air can be extrapolated from the present state of play.

It will be difficult, if not impossible, to challenge China militarily; however, conversely, the world will see a nation increasingly reluctant to move beyond its borders, increasingly tired of Zheng He, and cautious about military commitments. If the Taiwan issue is not resolved by 2030, it may never be resolved. China will, however, continue to build and launch several Carrier Task Forces; whether they will have a critical military role remains to be seen but it will give China the sublime self-confidence of having joined the ranks of the super-powers. They will be very active in the northern Indian Ocean, with their surface and submerged units prominently to be seen in port around the region, modelled in stealth forms, equipped with very advanced radar, missiles and deck-mounted rotary wing aircraft - and a minimal human presence.

Things will change massively, dear Sir

You put a lot of effort on this side of story. (Deserve a positive rating). I see that Automation and Unmanned weapons will come with or without the problem of population growth. Humans can not handle diverse information at the same time, machines can do that. So its obvious that Armies will (upto an extent) even inteoduce Machines that will plan strategies for other (soldier) machines. Just like we have CPM and PERT techniques which give us the critical paths and show which way is more feasible to follow. Something in same line will happen in militaries too.

Full servailance of borders through cameras and unmaned weapons , flying unmaned drones above them and robots on pattrol, and an army of 100000 divided in 15-20 locations with supersonic transport planes that can deploy those soldiers in 10-15 minites at any place in china. I see this comming very soon.

I presume you are talking about year 2100.

By then, population control will not be a problem because there are quite a few places on Earth that presently have small to almost none population - Greenland, Antarctic, Sahara, Siberia etc. I think climate change will be make it easier for such places to become habitable. I will further say that there will be a single world governance system instead of there being individual countries. This is natural.

Plus, by 2100 there will be settlements on Mars and the Moon. No doubt about that.



Exactly !!

Technologies like 3D Printing, Artificial Meat and Robotics will need less workforce than now, and will release more people into more intellectual and artistic work.

I was talking about a more near date , say 2050. Now, you do mentioned “release” of new lands due to global warming and climate change, but, have you considered that many countries (in some proportions of its land) will become uninhabitable due to extreme temperatures ? We have studies saying large part of middle eat will be hard to live on due to the extreme temperature in summers. Similarly, studies shows that maldiev will be under water before 2030. And half of bangladesh, large part of thatta district in pakistan and half of karachi will be under sea. This is just about subcontinent. Global warming will open greenland but it will close large part of middle east and some part of asia for humans.

Plus, by 2100 there will be settlements on Mars and the Moon. No doubt about that

A settlement on mars is not economically viable and not feasiblr for a population larger then 1000. We dont know/not sure (for know) about the minerals that is worthy to be put in a space ship and transfered to earth which on the other hand will cover the costs of 1000’s of humans living on mars. Moon is a good contestant due to the fact that helium can be sourced from there but thats something that even machines can do in the supervision of 3-5 humans.

Also, tramsformation of mars to current state took 1000’s of years (natural way). If we even comeup with a way to quickly teraform mars, that still wont be sooner then 50-60 years. We wont be able to reduce the fluctuation in day amd night temperature to 30-40 degrees in 50-60 years which BTW currently touches 60-80 degrees ( i assume).

 

[CHN Bamboo]

If the long-term economic growth demand a forevermore growing population. Consider about the consequences. Each person will have less and less space, resource and greater stress in life.
Using more robots to solve the problem of labor force shortage is better.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Your answer makes the situation and the prognosis even more interesting.

My apologies if i used the word “reverse” along the word “unstopable decline in population growth”. I was more concerned about the “labor force” part of OP. Which i suggested that China can alwaya import immigrants (not citizens) in 5-10 million count to “reduce” the adverse effect of declining population on everyday life of a common chinese.

The essential difference between China, and, say, India, a comparison that occurs readily to me, is of racial homogeneity. China is seen to be homogeneous, perhaps not very accurately; India is heterogeneous, perhaps not as accurately either. Let us finish this train of thought before coming to the reservations.

China is essentially seen as Han, in race terms, the Han dominate; the southern tribes, the Muslims of the north-west, the Mongolians, the Tibetans, all played supporting roles. The language, with fascinating dialects kept out for the convenience of the laowai, is in its high language form, Mandarin; it was possible to survive socially with knowledge of Mandarin alone.

I think.

A native Chinese might disagree violently; it would have to be a disagreement, since it seems to me that what I have outlined is the view in a snapshot.

India, on the other hand, with the bewildering number of languages on her banknotes, and the sheer diversity that we celebrate, having no alternative but to do that, is the opposite.

Now, look at the movement forward of another homogeneous country, race and nation, before, and after immigration. Germany needed the extra hands that it brought in as gaestarbeiter, most prominently from Turkey. Today, Germany is a diversified country, no longer the homogeneous place that it was in the 1950s; people of colour, people who were neither Lutheran nor Catholic, people who spoke languages other German with greater facility than German, are seen as good Germans, as good as the neighbourhood Schmidt, or Mueller, or von der Tann.

Think about this; today, Chinese national policy is to flatten distinctions and diversity and to homogenise society around a uniform Han society, with Han traditions, legacies and culture. If we are to take a cue from your vision of the future for the Chinese, that will not be possible. 10 million is a very small number in the face of the total Chinese population, but it is not, in numbers as numbers, a small number.

If immigration is to be official policy, China will have the European problem on her hands.

As we see today, China is the fastest growing country for mobile payments, it started introducing robots as waiters in resturants, China is building “factory robots” in 200-300k count per year. So inshort, the need for “labor” will reduce more then half. So (let say) Today China need 30 million labora to do all these business,household,manufacturing etc activities, as per my guess they would need half of that by 2035. So the need for humans to run business is already reduced with the innovation amd automation in industry and households. The other half part will be effected from this decline in labor (skilled and non-skilled) force. Which CAN BE reduced by introducing foreigners and immigrants.

Point understood. Reduction of numbers needed through technology, reduced numbers required to be met by indigenous headcount and immigrant numbers.

Who knows? It might work.

And yes you mentioned Example of japan. Its strange that why the hell they asked those immigrants to pack their bags while they badly needed them ? Still, yes Chinese are not that comfortable with other races, but tell me how open were they in 1980’s ? Can i say China and its society is more welcoming to foreigners then it used to be in 80’s and 90’s ? If yes, then i see this (Opening of society for foreigners) even grow. China is a very sensible country in the hands of sensible peoples. I dont think they will repeat the same mistake that Japan did. China will learn from the mistakes of japs (thats what i assumed in my mind).

There is always hope.

Haha. Its not on age. Though age increases the possibility of death but, some die at 10. Some even at birth. Some stay for a century and more. You will be here Inshallah. Just sign for the 72 houris .

You put a lot of effort on this side of story. (Deserve a positive rating). I see that Automation and Unmanned weapons will come with or without the problem of population growth. Humans can not handle diverse information at the same time, machines can do that. So its obvious that Armies will (upto an extent) even inteoduce Machines that will plan strategies for other (soldier) machines. Just like we have CPM and PERT techniques which give us the critical paths and show which way is more feasible to follow. Something in same line will happen in militaries too.

Full servailance of borders through cameras and unmaned weapons , flying unmaned drones above them and robots on pattrol, and an army of 100000 divided in 15-20 locations with supersonic transport planes that can deploy those soldiers in 10-15 minites at any place in china. I see this comming very soon.

I was talking about a more near date , say 2050. Now, you do mentioned “release” of new lands due to global warming and climate change, but, have you considered that many countries (in some proportions of its land) will become uninhabitable due to extreme temperatures ? We have studies saying large part of middle eat will be hard to live on due to the extreme temperature in summers. Similarly, studies shows that maldiev will be under water before 2030. And half of bangladesh, large part of thatta district in pakistan and half of karachi will be under sea. This is just about subcontinent. Global warming will open greenland but it will close large part of middle east and some part of asia for humans.

 

[RealNapster]

Your answer makes the situation and the prognosis even more interesting.

The essential difference between China, and, say, India, a comparison that occurs readily to me, is of racial homogeneity. China is seen to be homogeneous, perhaps not very accurately; India is heterogeneous, perhaps not as accurately either. Let us finish this train of thought before coming to the reservations.

China is essentially seen as Han, in race terms, the Han dominate; the southern tribes, the Muslims of the north-west, the Mongolians, the Tibetans, all played supporting roles. The language, with fascinating dialects kept out for the convenience of the laowai, is in its high language form, Mandarin; it was possible to survive socially with knowledge of Mandarin alone.

I think.

A native Chinese might disagree violently; it would have to be a disagreement, since it seems to me that what I have outlined is the view in a snapshot.

India, on the other hand, with the bewildering number of languages on her banknotes, and the sheer diversity that we celebrate, having no alternative but to do that, is the opposite.

Now, look at the movement forward of another homogeneous country, race and nation, before, and after immigration. Germany needed the extra hands that it brought in as gaestarbeiter, most prominently from Turkey. Today, Germany is a diversified country, no longer the homogeneous place that it was in the 1950s; people of colour, people who were neither Lutheran nor Catholic, people who spoke languages other German with greater facility than German, are seen as good Germans, as good as the neighbourhood Schmidt, or Mueller, or von der Tann.

Think about this; today, Chinese national policy is to flatten distinctions and diversity and to homogenise society around a uniform Han society, with Han traditions, legacies and culture. If we are to take a cue from your vision of the future for the Chinese, that will not be possible. 10 million is a very small number in the face of the total Chinese population, but it is not, in numbers as numbers, a small number.

If immigration is to be official policy, China will have the European problem on her hands.

Germany, a very good example. now, though i am not as informed and experienced as you (i just had 25 years to prepare for this debate while you on the other hand *ahm ahm* ) BUT, i do know that Germany under Hitler and Nazi rule was no different then China of 1970's. i won't say China of today as Today china is more progressive and acceptable to the world then Nazi Germany. coming back to Germany, Too arrogant, proud of it's race, claiming it's race is the best and pure of all races, killing Jews (by choice) and other such things, that's Germany before loosing 2 wars. But after losing those wars the German's were even OK to allow 3 million Pakistani's (then Turks) so that their society can survive. such was the condition that forced Germany to ALLOW people from (impure races). China, can be (and will if this decline continued) will be forced to Germany's position. now by noticing that China (though proud of it's traditions and language) but not that much arrogant of 1940's Germany, will not find it hard to accept immigrants.


Now, 10 million number. i agree. small number for china. but, we are not here to compete the Han in numbers. just trying to fill the shortage of labor. i don't think a Chinese will care who built the appliance he is using till it's built by a Chinese factory in China. 10 million (though a small number for china) is huge number to fill factories (and other human intensive industries).

Who knows? It might work.

when it's a about china. you can't be sure. China has proved that it make those policies work that other countries can't even imagine to be success. China has implemented one child policy much efficiently, no country can do that on china scale with such efficiency, similarly the example of Cashless economy. still a plan in west but in China it's a reality (A huge reality). So bottom line, the only thing that i know/learnt about China is that it needs you to be optimistic and have patience, baaki un par chor do.

 

[nang2]

Let senior citizens work. Europeans have shown us the way.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Germany, a very good example. now, though i am not as informed and experienced as you (i just had 25 years to prepare for this debate while you on the other hand *ahm ahm* ) BUT, i do know that Germany under Hitler and Nazi rule was no different then China of 1970's. i won't say China of today as Today china is more progressive and acceptable to the world then Nazi Germany. coming back to Germany, Too arrogant, proud of it's race, claiming it's race is the best and pure of all races, killing Jews (by choice) and other such things, that's Germany before loosing 2 wars. But after losing those wars the German's were even OK to allow 3 million Pakistani's (then Turks) so that their society can survive. such was the condition that forced Germany to ALLOW people from (impure races). China, can be (and will if this decline continued) will be forced to Germany's position. now by noticing that China (though proud of it's traditions and language) but not that much arrogant of 1940's Germany, will not find it hard to accept immigrants.


Now, 10 million number. i agree. small number for china. but, we are not here to compete the Han in numbers. just trying to fill the shortage of labor. i don't think a Chinese will care who built the appliance he is using till it's built by a Chinese factory in China. 10 million (though a small number for china) is huge number to fill factories (and other human intensive industries).




when it's a about china. you can't be sure. China has proved that it make those policies work that other countries can't even imagine to be success. China has implemented one child policy much efficiently, no country can do that on china scale with such efficiency, similarly the example of Cashless economy. still a plan in west but in China it's a reality (A huge reality). So bottom line, the only thing that i know/learnt about China is that it needs you to be optimistic and have patience, baaki un par chor do.

As I see it, my response to your note was not negative, but to point out the consequences of this projected decline of growth of population. In the ultimate, there can be two outcomes: China's population will stabilise at some point, or, the second option, China's population will continue to decline, perhaps at a slower pace, but a perceptible long-time decline. In the first case, China has to plan now, to create a working atmosphere around that predictable figure of population; that includes operating at a level of agricultural production, of industrial output, of investment in science and technology, of technical progress and of military organisation and preparedness that is appropriate and relevant.

Will China be able to do this? It will require tremendous vision, and sustained implementation across generations. It will be a post-modern development, in a sense; planning to destroy the entire process of planning, by going beyond planning for the year or for the decade to planning for long-term stability and conservation of resources.

I hope you agree.

 

[cloud4000]

Is that a bad thing? China will still have more people then whole of EU. Reducing world population growth is important.

I know some people like to treat countries like China and India has huge markets because of their population, but sometimes less is more -- quality over quantity.

 

[RealNapster]

As I see it, my response to your note was not negative,

i never took it that way. we add things and discussion goes on.

In the ultimate, there can be two outcomes: China's population will stabilise at some point, or, the second option, China's population will continue to decline, perhaps at a slower pace, but a perceptible long-time decline. In the first case, China has to plan now, to create a working atmosphere around that predictable figure of population; that includes operating at a level of agricultural production, of industrial output, of investment in science and technology, of technical progress and of military organisation and preparedness that is appropriate and relevant.

other then this. China have another issue. China lack women. i do not have sufficient women to accommodate all the men so that they can marry and have kids. I had a colleague Mr.hunmn (don't know what was the spelling. but sounded like hmmm). he asked me about marriage here and when i told him that it cost no more then 10 lak PKR he was astonished. he asked to arrange a girlfriend for him to which he can marry. as he said it's too hard for me to marry a Chinese girl due to reasons ;

1. they demand house. i don't own one yet. i have to work 8-10 years just to buy a house.

2. it's bloody expensive. you need to have 70-80k Yuan to be able to marry.

3. You just can't find a girl which you can marry.

that's why business like Rent a girlfriend are on Rise in China. also, there are Chinese you tubers and on other websites (female obviously) which don't do anything, just carry a camera, remain live and talk to audience while doing stuff, and people actually subscribe for that. itni tarsi awaam hy china ki

China first need to address this issue i guess. if China somehow managed solution for this problem, it have 33 million more women then men so say even 5 million of them marry. Effect on population growth will be very positive. (should learn from Us and allow 4 marriages . baaki bandy ki himat kitni karta hy )

 

[Jlaw]

A declining population isn't an issue especially for China; an aging population is.

Aging population is not just a random statistic detached from reality like total GDP or economic power, it has real impact on the lives of the common people.

You Indians need to stop raping and producing babies. No means no!

 

[Joe Shearer]

i never took it that way. we add things and discussion goes on.



other then this. China have another issue. China lack women. i do not have sufficient women to accommodate all the men so that they can marry and have kids. I had a colleague Mr.hunmn (don't know what was the spelling. but sounded like hmmm). he asked me about marriage here and when i told him that it cost no more then 10 lak PKR he was astonished. he asked to arrange a girlfriend for him to which he can marry. as he said it's too hard for me to marry a Chinese girl due to reasons ;

1. they demand house. i don't own one yet. i have to work 8-10 years just to buy a house.

2. it's bloody expensive. you need to have 70-80k Yuan to be able to marry.

3. You just can't find a girl which you can marry.

that's why business like Rent a girlfriend are on Rise in China. also, there are Chinese you tubers and on other websites (female obviously) which don't do anything, just carry a camera, remain live and talk to audience while doing stuff, and people actually subscribe for that. itni tarsi awaam hy china ki

China first need to address this issue i guess. if China somehow managed solution for this problem, it have 33 million more women then men so say even 5 million of them marry. Effect on population growth will be very positive. (should learn from Us and allow 4 marriages . baaki bandy ki himat kitni karta hy )

I've read about this, and was quite astonished. Actually, since it is a nurturing society for females, and not like our own ghastly milieu, it seemed natural that there should be more women than men; it came as a surprise that it was not so!

There is the perfect plan but I dare not reveal it for fear of being jailed by @jbgt90. A pity, really, it's a perfect plan.

You Indians need to stop raping and producing babies. No means no!

Your comments are unwanted.

No means no!

Let senior citizens work. Europeans have shown us the way.

@nang2 for world president! The man with the right ideas, and the best exposure presentation!

..............................................Joe Shearer (68)​

 

[RealNapster]

I've read about this, and was quite astonished. Actually, since it is a nurturing society for females, and not like our own ghastly milieu, it seemed natural that there should be more women than men; it came as a surprise that it was not so!

There is the perfect plan but I dare not reveal it for fear of being jailed by @jbgt90. A pity, really, it's a perfect plan.

though i would like to know your plan, but the reason behind less female in china is actually more of "inhumane". Due to one child policy, as you can just have one baby. so every family wanted a boy so that he can support his parents when they are old. so if it was a girl as per ultrasound many opted for abortion. that's why a young man have to take care of his parents, buy a house, earn 70-80 thousand Yuan, find a girl, convince her to marry him and then marry.

too much, just for a marriage ? A young Chinese asked.

hence the decline in marriages. same thing happening here which happened in West, Korea, Singapore, Japan and European countries. no one want to marry citing the above mentioned reasons.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Is that a bad thing? China will still have more people then whole of EU. Reducing world population growth is important.

Yes....when it's coupled with a rapidly aging population and massive decline in your workforce.

 

[Type59]

Yes....when it's coupled with a rapidly aging population and massive decline in your workforce.

Once you hit retirement age, does not mean you can't physically work anymore. They can still work part time and receive a pension. In the UK they are consistently raising retirement age. Before old age pension system, we were expected to work until we croaked.

 

[GeraltofRivia]

My apologies if i used the word “reverse” along the word “unstopable decline in population growth”. I was more concerned about the “labor force” part of OP. Which i suggested that China can alwaya import immigrants (not citizens) in 5-10 million count to “reduce” the adverse effect of declining population on everyday life of a common chinese. As we see today, China is the fastest growing country for mobile payments, it started introducing robots as waiters in resturants, China is building “factory robots” in 200-300k count per year. So inshort, the need for “labor” will reduce more then half. So (let say) Today China need 30 million labora to do all these business,household,manufacturing etc activities, as per my guess they would need half of that by 2035. So the need for humans to run business is already reduced with the innovation amd automation in industry and households. The other half part will be effected from this decline in labor (skilled and non-skilled) force. Which CAN BE reduced by introducing foreigners and immigrants.

And yes you mentioned Example of japan. Its strange that why the hell they asked those immigrants to pack their bags while they badly needed them ? Still, yes Chinese are not that comfortable with other races, but tell me how open were they in 1980’s ? Can i say China and its society is more welcoming to foreigners then it used to be in 80’s and 90’s ? If yes, then i see this (Opening of society for foreigners) even grow. China is a very sensible country in the hands of sensible peoples. I dont think they will repeat the same mistake that Japan did. China will learn from the mistakes of japs (thats what i assumed in my mind).



Haha. Its not on age. Though age increases the possibility of death but, some die at 10. Some even at birth. Some stay for a century and more. You will be here Inshallah. Just sign for the 72 houris .



You put a lot of effort on this side of story. (Deserve a positive rating). I see that Automation and Unmanned weapons will come with or without the problem of population growth. Humans can not handle diverse information at the same time, machines can do that. So its obvious that Armies will (upto an extent) even inteoduce Machines that will plan strategies for other (soldier) machines. Just like we have CPM and PERT techniques which give us the critical paths and show which way is more feasible to follow. Something in same line will happen in militaries too.

Full servailance of borders through cameras and unmaned weapons , flying unmaned drones above them and robots on pattrol, and an army of 100000 divided in 15-20 locations with supersonic transport planes that can deploy those soldiers in 10-15 minites at any place in china. I see this comming very soon.




I was talking about a more near date , say 2050. Now, you do mentioned “release” of new lands due to global warming and climate change, but, have you considered that many countries (in some proportions of its land) will become uninhabitable due to extreme temperatures ? We have studies saying large part of middle eat will be hard to live on due to the extreme temperature in summers. Similarly, studies shows that maldiev will be under water before 2030. And half of bangladesh, large part of thatta district in pakistan and half of karachi will be under sea. This is just about subcontinent. Global warming will open greenland but it will close large part of middle east and some part of asia for humans.



A settlement on mars is not economically viable and not feasiblr for a population larger then 1000. We dont know/not sure (for know) about the minerals that is worthy to be put in a space ship and transfered to earth which on the other hand will cover the costs of 1000’s of humans living on mars. Moon is a good contestant due to the fact that helium can be sourced from there but thats something that even machines can do in the supervision of 3-5 humans.

Also, tramsformation of mars to current state took 1000’s of years (natural way). If we even comeup with a way to quickly teraform mars, that still wont be sooner then 50-60 years. We wont be able to reduce the fluctuation in day amd night temperature to 30-40 degrees in 50-60 years which BTW currently touches 60-80 degrees ( i assume).

Hi I agree with your point about a reduced “need” for labor in the next few decades with labor intensive industry slowly disappearing in China either moving overseas or replaced with automations. I guess the declining population may actually serve as a positive development as the with China moving up the value ladder, it will not be able to support a large low skill workforce anyway. Instead, a leaner (in Chinese scale naturally) and more skilled workforce will be more than sufficient to drive the Chinese economy train.

I do think China will need migrates but they can be classified into high skill and low skill categories. In the high (and ultra high) skill category, China will be natural attraction for them given the growth and work opportunity. China will be competing with advanced economies for these talents. In the low skill category, there will be growing demand for the migrant workers in the services sector. Same trend can be observed in other advanced economies.

As I see it, my response to your note was not negative, but to point out the consequences of this projected decline of growth of population. In the ultimate, there can be two outcomes: China's population will stabilise at some point, or, the second option, China's population will continue to decline, perhaps at a slower pace, but a perceptible long-time decline. In the first case, China has to plan now, to create a working atmosphere around that predictable figure of population; that includes operating at a level of agricultural production, of industrial output, of investment in science and technology, of technical progress and of military organisation and preparedness that is appropriate and relevant.

Will China be able to do this? It will require tremendous vision, and sustained implementation across generations. It will be a post-modern development, in a sense; planning to destroy the entire process of planning, by going beyond planning for the year or for the decade to planning for long-term stability and conservation of resources.

I hope you agree.

Cannot agree more on about your discussion. Population has to be considered as part of national growth strategy, together with other key areas like technology and industry development. Also there is quality consideration, which ties to education policy.

The recent removal of one child policy in China indicated that Chinese State is quite conscious on the development and prepare to act if necessary.