China reacts to credit boom fears
The country's asset watchdog ordered its army of state-owned firms to take greater care, "resisting the temptation" of speculating in property, stocks, and derivatives markets.
The co-ordinated moves across all fronts cooled the buying fever on China's frothy bourses. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.9pc, with sharper corrections among cyclical stocks. Top steel producer Baoshan dropped 4.8pc, and Saic Motor fell 4.4pc.
The central bank nudged up the interest rate on 3-month loans, a symbolic move intended to signal the shift in policy direction. The authorities have quietly been issuing tougher guidelines for lenders over the past few weeks. "This tightening is the start of a long squeeze," said Charles Dumas from Lombard Street Research. The think tank said Beijing is waking up to the danger of over-heating, with the money supply growing at an annual rate of 20pc.
While China's $600bn (£376bn) fiscal stimulus package has been huge, it was more than matched by nearly $1 trillion growth in credit in the first half of the year. The authorities have since tried to rein in credit but it is already leaking in food inflation – as well as into an asset bubble – a dangerous political issue in a country grappling with tens of millions of footloose migrant workers, often quick to protest.
Jiang Weixin, the housing minister, said credit for property would be restricted to slow the runaway rise in prices. "We should scrap or adjust local property policies launched last year that no longer comply with the current macroeconomic goals," he said.
The government is concerned that huge tracts of office blocks and housing bought by investors are sitting empty. Mortgages are mostly limited to 65pc of equity – and many flats are purchased with cash – so arguably there is little danger of repeating America's subprime debacle. However, excesses are now obvious in dozens of cities.
Banking practices have been opaque, leaving it far from clear whether or not lenders are sitting on a vast underbelly of bad loans. China appears to be opting for a credit squeeze rather than allowing the yuan to rise against the dollar, euro, and yen – an alternative way to cool the economy.
This mercantilist strategy lowers the risk of job losses among toy, textile, shoe and furniture exporters but raises the risk of a trade showdown with the West, where protectionist voices are growing louder.
Tightening by China may have knock-on effects for the global commodities markets, which have been feeding the insatiable Dragon for the last year.
Andy Xie from Caijing says a significant chunk of government stimulus has been used to speculate on metals and crude. Even pig farmers have been borrowing from banks to hoard copper, hoping to flip a profit.
Mr Dumas said the policy shift in Beijing may mark the moment when China joins the US, Europe and Japan in smothering broad money growth. “This means global deflation – initially of risk-asset markets, later of economies and consumer prices. Grief will ripple out from the Pacific Rim.”
Source :
China reacts to credit boom fears - Telegraph