China Economy Forum

[Martian2]

China's November 2015 trade surplus is $53.6 billion

China's monthly trade surplus hovers between $50 billion to $60 billion.

China's November 2015 trade surplus is 343 billion Yuans (see news article below).

343 billion Yuans / 6.4 Yuans per US dollar = $53.6 billion November trade surplus

The good news is that the Brent oil price is still dropping. If Brent oil reaches $20 per barrel, China should be able to add another $100 billion to its annual trade surplus! Brent should keep dropping, because Iran is about to unload its 50 million barrels of surplus crude oil inventory (that had built up during the years of sanctions).

Also, current oil production is 2 million barrels in excess of daily worldwide demand.

China's 2015 total merchandise trade surplus should be about $600 billion.

Next year, China's 2016 trade surplus could be $700 billion!
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China trade surplus shrinks in Nov, exports drop further

 

[Martian2]

China's 2015 Year-to-date merchandise trade surplus is $542 billion

For the first quarter of 2015, China's trade surplus was $123 billion.
China's April trade surplus was $34.1 billion.
China's May trade surplus was $59.49 billion.
China's June trade surplus is $46.54 billion.
In total, China's half-year 2015 trade surplus was $263 billion.

The following data comes from Trading Economics "Recent Releases."
Link: China Balance of Trade | 1983-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

China's July trade surplus was $43 billion.
China's August trade surplus was $62 billion.
China's September trade surplus was $54 billion.

China's October trade surplus was $60 billion. (Source: The Australian Business Review)
China's November trade surplus was $54 billion. (Source: FXStreet)

China's January to November 2015 merchandise trade surplus is $536 billion. There is one more month to go!

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

China's 2015 Year-to-date merchandise trade surplus is $542 billion

For the first quarter of 2015, China's trade surplus was $123 billion.
China's April trade surplus was $34.1 billion.
China's May trade surplus was $59.49 billion.
China's June trade surplus is $46.54 billion.
In total, China's half-year 2015 trade surplus was $263 billion.

The following data comes from Trading Economics "Recent Releases."
Link: China Balance of Trade | 1983-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

China's July trade surplus was $43 billion.
China's August trade surplus was $62 billion.
China's September trade surplus was $54 billion.

China's October trade surplus was $60 billion. (Source: The Australian Business Review)
China's November trade surplus was $54 billion. (Source: FXStreet)

China's January to November 2015 merchandise trade surplus is $536 billion. There is one more month to go!

You must include the whole financial account, and not only good trade.

China has a services deficit of around 230 billion dollars. Plus, there are net capital outflows.

China's foreign reserves are dropping right now.

 

[Martian2]

You must include the whole financial account, and not only good trade.

China has a services deficit of around 230 billion dollars. Plus, there are net capital outflows.

China's foreign reserves are dropping right now.

Do you mind? I answered your point one month ago.

I said if you add in China's remittance ($64 billion) and earnings (Treasury bond yield and investment return) then the total is still about $600 billion.

Have you forgotten already?

RECORD CHINA TRADE SURPLUS AS DEMAND SAGS

 

[Martian2]

Huawei's HiSilicon is at $4 billion in sales! | IC Insights

It's amazing how quickly things change. I recall a time when Huawei's HiSilicon (ie. Huawei's chip design subsidiary) had only $2 billion in sales. Now they have $4 billion!

China's Spreadtrum is also growing very quickly. It's almost at $2 billion in sales.

Taiwan MediaTek's fall in sales is not surprising. The Taiwanese currency lost about 10% in value this year (from 30 to 33 New Taiwan dollars per US Dollar). Thus, it's only a currency fluctuation. Taiwan's currency will bounce back on its strong annual trade surplus.

Samsung Drives IDM Win Over Fabless in 2015 | EE Times

 

[flist3773]

@Martian2

There is an interesting report from Anandtech regarding Huawei. The title of article is "China calling Huawei media tour kirin 950 and why we went."

I think this is good article to read, if one wants to find out information about Huawei.

Also, Huawei is having 30% increase in revenue and its operating margin is at 18.3%.

That means Huawei may achieve revenue of $57 billion with over $10 billion in operating income.

I'm not certain if the revenue and the net income from HiSilicon is included in the annual report of Huawei (someone can check if they have time).

 

[Martian2]

China’s Government Plans Major Changes in Policy - What to Watch | DailyFX

 

[Martian2]

China's import volume is increasing, not decreasing | Forbes

There is a price adjustment occurring in the commodity markets. The price of oil has collapsed. So has the price of iron ore, copper, etc.

This means the nominal price of goods is not a stable indicator this year.

What we really want to know is whether China's economy is importing more raw materials or less. It turns out that China is increasing its imports of raw materials. This means the Chinese economy is growing.

Sequential growth in volume imports of raw materials can only mean a growing economy.
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China's Trade Slump Isn't Quite As Bad As It Looks: Prices, Not Volumes, Are Important | Forbes

"To be sure, China imported more copper, iron ore, crude oil, coal and soybeans in November by volume than in the preceding month, preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Tuesday."

 

[TaiShang]

Confidence over economy tops 66%
December 11, 2015

More than 60 percent of Chinese consumers are optimistic about economic prospects next year that they are willing to spend more, a survey found.

Around 66 percent of respondents were optimistic that China’s economy will get better in 2016 while 24 percent believed it will be the same and 10 percent expected it to be worse, according to a survey by brokerage and investment group CLSA.

The survey was conducted among 520 consumers from middle-class families, who shared their views on the economy, currency, employment, spending, property and investments.

Although most respondents described the current business conditions as average or bad, 58 percent were optimistic that they would improve next year.

Despite a slowing economy, respondents’ retail consumption was relatively stable with a quarter of them likely to spend more on clothing and shoes and another 24 percent on branded items. Only 7 percent said they would cut spending on clothing and shoes and 3 percent planned to switch to cheaper brands.

For big items, travel was the top choice with 94 percent of respondents making travel plans next year, followed by home appliances, cars, children’s extracurricular classes and life insurance.

Respondents, however, were cautious about the property market with 68 percent having no plans to buy a house next year as they believe that property prices are high and worry they could drop next year. Only 19 percent of respondents would invest in property.

Investment in stock and wealth management products tied as joint top with each drawing 25 percent of respondents.

The stock market attracted 75 percent of respondents willing to make investments.

 

[bobsm]

China posts highest retail sales growth in Nov.

English.news.cn 2015-12-12 15:11:23

BEIJING, Dec. 12 (Xinhua) -- China's retail sales of consumer goods rose 11.2 percent year on year in November, the highest monthly growth rate so far this year, official data showed on Saturday.

With November holding the hugely successful online shopping festival Singles' Day, total retail sales of consumer goods stood at 2.79 trillion yuan (434 billion U.S. dollars) last month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

In the 11 months ending in November, total sales rose 10.6 percent from a year earlier to 27.23 trillion yuan, unchanged from the growth for the first 10 months.

On Nov. 11, or Singles' Day, a nationwide shopping spree saw Alibaba Tmall's online sales jump 60 percent to reach 91.2 billion yuan. The second-ranking JD.com, though much smaller in volume, said 32 million orders were placed in the day, up 130 percent from last year.

In the first 11 months, online sales surged by 34.5 percent year on year to 3.45 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.6 percent in gross retail sales, NBS data showed.

NBS figures also showed that retail sales in China's rural areas expanded by 12.2 percent in November, outpacing the rate of 11 percent for sales in urban areas.

Strong retail sales indicated that pro-consumption policies are taking effect. It also offered a relief for Chinese policy-makers as they try to restructure the Chinese economy to a more consumption- and service-driven model to sustain growth, albeit at a slower rate.


China posts highest retail sales growth in Nov.
- Xinhua | English.news.cn

 

[neolithic]

A century-old Ottoman legacy in China

 

[Shotgunner51]

China's 2015 Year-to-date merchandise trade surplus is $542 billion

For the first quarter of 2015, China's trade surplus was $123 billion.
China's April trade surplus was $34.1 billion.
China's May trade surplus was $59.49 billion.
China's June trade surplus is $46.54 billion.
In total, China's half-year 2015 trade surplus was $263 billion.

The following data comes from Trading Economics "Recent Releases."
Link: China Balance of Trade | 1983-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

China's July trade surplus was $43 billion.
China's August trade surplus was $62 billion.
China's September trade surplus was $54 billion.

China's October trade surplus was $60 billion. (Source: The Australian Business Review)
China's November trade surplus was $54 billion. (Source: FXStreet)

Yes bro, January-Nov (11 months, tabulated below) combined was $543 billion. Just one more month to go, I think our original forecast on 2015 trade surplus of $600 billion should be correct.

China November trade balance in USD terms 54.1bn surplus @ Forex Factory
http://www.ecns.cn/video/2015/12-09/191830.shtml
China Balance of Trade | 1983-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

Month Trade Surplus ($ billion)
Jan 60.032
Feb 60.619
Mar 3.081
Apr 34.135
May 58.867
Jun 46.536
Jul 43.025
Aug 60.236
Sep 60.342
Oct 61.64
Nov 54.103
Dec (data to be released on 8th January 2016)
2015 Total 542.616 (Jan-Nov)​

 

[TaiShang]

China's Chery to Produce 5 Millionth Car
2015-12-13

China's Chery Automobile is expected to produce its 5 millionth car next Friday, making it the country's first indigenous automaker to reach the milestone, according to a company source.

Chery sold 50,540 vehicles in November, up 22.9 percent year on year.

Chery's strong sales stood out in the sluggish Chinese auto market. Its sales in the first half of 2015 surged 17 percent from the same period last year, with 252,439 vehicles sold in the first six months.

China's total car sales rose only 1.4 percent in the first half this year, according to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Chery was founded in Wuhu City of east China's Anhui Province in 1997. I produced its 1 millionth car in August 22, 2007.

A joint venture between Chery and U.K.-based Jaguar Land Rover commenced production in October last year.

 

[JSCh]

China's new energy vehicle output surges
Source:Xinhua Published: 2015-12-15 0:11:35

China's production of new energy vehicles surged by 600 percent year on year in November thanks to government support.

Total production in November stood at 72,300 units, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said Monday in a statement.

During the month, output of pure electric passenger vehicles soared 700 percent from a year earlier to 30,000 units and that for plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles tripled to 7,509.

Pure electric and plug-in hybrid commercial vehicles skyrocketed by 18 times and 97 percent, the statement said.

China rolled out a raft of measures to promote new energy vehicles in a bid to save energy and combat pollution, including tax exemptions, subsidies for car purchases and a requirement for government departments to buy more new energy cars.

Official data showed that 95 percent of new energy vehicles produced in November would benefit from the favorable taxation policies.

In the first 11 months, China produced 279,200 new energy vehicles, up by four times from the same period in 2014.

 

[JSCh]

China cuts holdings of U.S. treasuries in October
2015-12-17 11:13 CRIENGLISH.com Editor: Feng Shuang

The latest data from the U.S. Treasury Department shows that China reduced its holdings of Treasury securities in October.

China cut its holdings by $3.2 billion in October, the second consecutive month for its holding reduction.

Its current holdings amount to $1.3 trillion.

Japan also cut its holding by $28 billion in October.

Tokyo's holdings now amount to $1.2 trillion.

Overall, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities in October dropped to just over $6 trillion compared to September, a change of about $100 billion.