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Chinese LED startup in $2.6 bln Philips lighting bid

By: Arno Schuetze | reuters.com | Posted: 16 Mar 2015, 09:45


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A surprise Asian consortium has emerged in the auction for Philips' lighting components business worth roughly 2.5 billion euros ($2.6 billion), two sources familiar with the matter said.

Chinese LED startup Lattice Power, working with investors GSR Ventures and Singapore state fund Temasek, has expressed interest in the business, a move that could potentially foil the chances of rival bids from buyout groups, they said.

"They have put in a last-minute bid," one of the sources said, adding that it is expected to have been competitive as it would otherwise would have no chance at this stage of the auction.

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"It looks like the Chinese are there. But it is unclear if their chances are very big," another source said.

Philips' adviser Morgan Stanley aims to enter exclusive talks with one of the bidders early next week, wrapping up a process which started a year ago when the Dutch electronics group combined its so-called Lumileds and car lights divisions into a standalone company.

A consortium of private equity firms CVC and KKR this month tabled a bid seen as leading, with runner-up Bain Capital having had the chance the hike its own offer, sources familiar had said.

Spokespeople for Philips, CVC, KKR and Bain Capital declined to comment, while representatives for Lattice, GSR, Temasek and Morgan Stanley were not available for immediate comment.

Lattice Power, a small company which last year secured $80 million in funding by Asia Pacific Resources Development Investment, already has some connection to Philips, as it made James Haworth, a former Philips executive, the head of its U.S. operations.

Philips, which started making light bulbs 123 years ago, has vowed to focus on higher-margin activities under pressure from Chinese makers of light-emitting diodes (LEDs).

In 2014, Philips' Lumileds/Automotive business posted earnings before interest, tax and amortisation (EBITA) of 172 million euros on sales of 1.42 billion.

Peers such as Hella, Cree and Acuity trade in a range of 6.6 to 13.4 times expected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation.

Chinese LED startup in $2.6 bln Philips lighting bid - OFweek News
 
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Li Ning's Woes a Valuable Lesson in Branding (Business) | Beijing Today

2014 was not kind to Li Ning. The famous sports brand founded by China’s favorite Olympic gymnast posted losses of 5.8 trillion yuan and shuttered 1,200 outlets.

And that was while domestic competitors Anta, 361, Peak and Toread all turned a profit.

Last month, the company announced its sales growth was positive during the July-December period. However, it still expects a third year of net losses as it wades through restructuring, bloated inventory and reduced demand.

The brand launched in 2003 and enjoyed a rocketing growth rate of 34.9 percent in its first six years. It benefitted from a marketing plan that pushed it to its peak during the 2008 Beijing Olympics. By the next year, Li Ning was bigger than Adidas in China.

“Our success owes much to the booming economic situation of those years. Sales were buoyed by increasing consumption, and that helped to conceal many problems within,” said a former Li Ning senior executive who spoke on conditions of anonymity.

Marketing Failure
With “Linsanity” on the lips of NBA fans around the world, Li Ning hurled $100 million at a 10-year contract with Dwyane Wade of the Miami Heat and allowed Jeremy Lin to be snatched up by Adidas.

Similarly, Li Ning missed the chance to sign the Guangzhou Evergrande Football Club, which was later signed by Nike.

“Jeremy Lin continued the story of Chinese athletes taking the world stage generation by generation. An endorsement from Lin would have helped the domestic sports brand to enter the global market,” said Li Jianhua, a writer for Sina Finance.

But Li Ning’s epic failure goes beyond a missed endorsement.

As China’s most recognized domestic sports brand, Li Ning failed to transform the personal charm of its sports stars into a component of its brand image. Expensive contracts with superstars such as Shaquille O’Neal and Yelena Isinbayeva became mere seasonal gimmicks that failed to contribute to the brand.

“Real marketing should influence consumers’ behavior. In this, we failed,” a spokesman for the company said.

Diluted Brand
Li Ning was once a symbol of the Chinese national squad in the 1990s, when the company sponsored the national diving team, national gymnastics team and national table tennis team.

Li Ning himself brought great athletic honor to the nation, and the brand was blessed with a proud patriotic lineage that set it apart from its domestic peers.

But in the following 20 years, Li Ning began to explore the overseas market by sponsoring foreign national squads and changing its target consumers to teens in 2010.

“90s Li Ning,” the latest attempt at rebranding the company, was considered to be a disaster that cost it many old consumers and failed to hook young buyers. The drop in demand left Li Ning to keep selling old stock at steep discounts.

For anyone keen to look, Li Ning showed all signs of a brand in an identity crisis.

Eager to woo a new generation of young buyers, Li Ning waffled between professional and fashion sportswear and even changed its logo. The indecision and poor planning left it a mediocre brand with no featured product.

Anta, by contrast, aimed at the mid- to low-end market and focused on producing good quality basketball, track and cross-country shoes. Ding Shizhong, CEO of Anta, said the company earned 1.7 billion yuan in 2014 and became the first domestic sportswear firm without old stock.

Wholesale to Retail
As the top-selling domestic sportswear maker in 2014, Anta changed its model from wholesale to retail.

In order to raise the unit efficiency of each store, Anta analyzed how fast products were sold at each outlet and began organizing its shipments in a way that would optimize resources.

“In wholesale models, all information is provided by the suppliers. You can never ascertain the real needs of the market based on which goods remain in stock,” Li Ning said.

Zheng Jie, the executive officer of Anta, said the company has been relying on e-commerce over Alibaba’s T-mall to clear out seasonal stock.

“We may release something special in our children’s line for online retail this year, but our physical stores will remain the main sales channel,” Zheng said.

She said e-commerce sales are expected to account for less than 20 percent of the brand’s revenue this year.

On December 2014, Li Ning began selling its shares again at a low price in hopes of raising the 1.5 billion yuan it needs to break even. The company is closing more of its stores and returning to professional sportswear.

But with its brand in shambles and its Olympic namesake relegated to the memory of an aging generation, it’s hard to say whether retreating into its glory days will be enough to save Li Ning.

I am sure this is wrong. 5.8 trillion yuan. It would perhaps be 5.8 billion yuan.
 
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BAIC: World-class China-brand cars; Right here, right now | The Manila Times Online

A decade ago, Chinese cars gained notoriety in the Philippine market for having poor quality and dependability. Add to that the extremely bad aftersales support customers were afforded by the importers of these cheap cars. But that was 10 years ago. Now, Chinese car manufacturers have learned their lessons, and more than ever, are determined to make their companies thrive and become sustainable. They have finally figured out that their businesses cannot be sustained by one-time purchases. Now it is imperative that they also provide their customers with products that are not only packed with state-of-the-art features, but dependable aftersales service as well.

There a hundreds of car manufacturers in China, all of which are aiming at taking a chunk of the country’s 1.4 billion potential buyers. Some companies have been in operation since the 1950’s and have slowly evolved as a leader in the industry.

One of the leading cat manufacturers in China is BAIC. This car brand came out with the “Jingganshan,” a two-door, four-seater sedan, which was their very first model back in in June 20, 1958. That same year, BAIC came out with a much bigger four-door sedan, which looked very similar to a popular American model.

BAIC continued growing and came out with its own version of the Willy’s Jeep, called the Beijing 212 or BJ212 model, which was the first mass-produced military off-road vehicle in China.

Having a vision of moving the company forward, BAIC executives formed international alliances with well known automobile brands in order for them to acquire a solid foundation in the production of cars and strengthen its ability to carry out independent research and development to make them a leader in the automotive market.

In 1984, BAIC made history by setting up a joint venture with the former Chrysler Corporation, which owned the Jeep brand. The two companies successfully developed a number of models. The partnership resulted in BAIC gaining much-needed information in the design as well as technology transfer in the production of vehicles.

In 2002, BAIC partnered with South Korea’s Hyundai corporation, and began local production of Hyundai vehicles in China. The partnership resulted in the production and sales of 1 million Hyundai cars in China, during its first few years of operations. Striving to move up the ladder, a strategic cooperation with Daimler Chrysler was inked, enabling BAIC to produce high-end Mercedes Benz models including the C-Class, E-Class and the GLK. More recently, BAIC acquired the intellectual property rights of Swedish car-maker SAAB, allowing them to perform their own R&D works, and ultimately design their very own BAIC models.

BAIC begins production of own models
In 2010, BAIC International was formed and saw the setting up of their very own design headquarters in Turin, Italy. Heading the design team is Leonardo Fioravanti from the Pininfarina design house. For those not in the know what Pininfarina is, it is the design house that provides design concepts for big car brands including the highly aspirational brand, Ferrari.

Once BAIC’s design house was formed, BAIC began developing car models; from early sketch conception, to 3D and physical models, all on their own.

With the knowhow gained from their international partnerships, BAIC International made it a point to use globally accepted components in their cars to assure its safety and reliability. Some of these global component suppliers include ABB, Linde, Durr, Demag, Ogihara and Bosch, among others.

Currently, BAIC has four production plants across China, but the biggest one is near its capital, Beijing, where it sits on a 1 million square-meter property. The manufacturing plant is fully automated, with robots performing most of the body assembly works. This method assures that all vehicles coming out of the line meet the strict specifications set for both domestic and international use. Each unit that rolls out of the line is also made to drive over a 1.5-kilometer test course filled with pot holes, ruts, bumps and humps to make sure that all welds and screws hold the car and its components together, well. In any case that a component rattles or shakes, the car is immediately brought back to the plant for corrective measures.

Now armed with years of experience in producing well-known and dependable brands, BAIC came out with their world-class, own-brand models that includes: the A115, which comes in a sub-compact hatchback and sub-compact sedan variant; the A315, which is a compact sedan; the MZ540, which is a passenger mini-van; the X424 four-wheel-drive off-roader jeep; and its flagship model, the A520/A523 mid-sized luxury sedan.

The new BAIC models received a warm welcome from the Chinese consumers for its features and durability, as well as the aftersales service provided by the company, that it saw an exponential rise in sales since its introduction in 2010.

BAIC goes international
In 2013, BAIC began international sales with exports reaching Brazil, Mexico, Russia, South America. International sales proved to be very successful as BAIC unit sales reached an astonishing 2.4 million units in 2014 alone. BAIC executives expect sales to grow to 2.9 million units in 2015.

In the same year, BAIC started the production of fully Electric Vehicles, which came in three variants: the A115EV hatchback; the A115EV sedan; and the A520EV mid-sized sedan. During its first year of production, BAIC sold a total of 4,000 EVs. The following year, EV sales jumped to 10,000 units. For this year, BAIC plans to sell 20,000 units—making it the biggest EV seller in China.

The BAIC Group has become one of the five largest automotive groups in China. It has the most comprehensive portfolio of products, covering the full-range from passenger to commercial vehicles.

In 2013, BAIC Group achieved sales of 266.38 billion RMB and 2,164,000 units sold, making BAIC Group No. 4 in China’s automotive sector in terms of income and profit, and No.3 in terms of brand value. Today, BAIC Group ranks No. 248 in the Fortune Global 500.

BAIC International is expanding its international operations with the aim of building “Global BAIC”. This visionary project will give birth to networks in the main regions of the world: the Middle East, Africa, South America, and Asia, including the Philippines.

BAIC International president, Dr. Haiyang Dong, disclosed that although the BAIC brand is fairly young, when compared to their global competitors, they made it a point to correct the mistakes committed earlier by other Chinese brands. Dong acknowledged the fact that several years ago, Chinese car manufacturers did not think of their customers when they built their cars. “They just thought of the volume and did not think of the customers. Back then, the quality was poor and the after-sales service was almost none. This resulted in Chinese cars being branded as cheap, low-quality and bad service.”

“We have learned from their mistakes,” Dr. Dong said. “When we started BAIC International, we made it our goal to build a good image for our company. We don’t focus much on volume and low price, but good quality cars and excellent service. Not just one-time deals!” Dr. Dong exclaimed.

Dr. Dong revealed that BAIC’s core business is the development of reliable commercial, passenger, electronic and other types of vehicles, equipped with user-friendly features that meet the standards of the international automotive market and fulfill customer expectations globally. Under the motto “Faster, Leaner, Smarter,” BAIC International will use the powerful combination of its innovative spirit and its strong research and development capabilities in order to achieve the top position in technology advancement, out-of-the-box business development and global resources integration.

According to Dr. Dong, BAIC International has three goals for their global market: First is to provide ‘product differentiation.’ Dong said different countries have different needs, and said their cars must be tailor-made to the needs of the local consumers; Second is ‘service differentiation.’ “BAIC does not want to repeat the same mistakes of other (Chinese) car brands, when they did not provide after sales service to their international customers. We want to differentiate BAIC from the rest. We will practice what we preach as having the ‘Best service in town;’” Third and last is ‘localization.’ “In the countries where we have BAIC cars, we plan to put up local R&D, local procurement, local manufacturing and local marketing. Cars cannot always be produced in China and exported to other countries. They are not good for the two nations (referring to unbalanced trade),” Dong said.

BAIC in the Philippines
Last year, BAIC partnered with Universal Motors Corporation, the former distributor of Nissan commercial vehicles in the Philippines, to be their official distributor. UMC then established a new company, aptly named Bayan Automotive Industries Corporation (BAIC), to handle the new automotive brand.

Under the leadership of George Chua, BAIC Philippines now offers the complete range of BAIC International models in the country, except for the electric vehicles. BAIC is still waiting for the Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFV) bill to be passed in congress to determine what subsidies it will get, and determine if the unit price will be feasible.

Asked about their plans in the Philippines, Dr. Dong said that with the right numbers, they are mulling the production of BAIC cars in the Philippines. “For the moment we only have CBU (complete built-up units) in the Philippines. We want to make a trial market test; to see what happens, what the company needs, the reaction for our products and services. And when the volume takes off, within six months or one year, we will start with the local production.”

“KD (knock-down) units are now in the drawing board for the Philippine market, with a production plant being planned to be put up somewhere in Luzon,” Dr. Dong added.

BAIC Philippines now has dealerships/showrooms in Makati, Iloilo and Tacloban; with dealerships opening soon in Antipolo, Bacolod and Cebu.
 
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Chinese mobile users reach 1.29bn
FERGUS RYAN MARCH 18, 2015 12:00PM

Chinese mobile users reached 1.29 billion according to a report released by the country’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

According to the ministry, 10 per cent of the 1.29 billion mobile users are on the 4G network.

Between January and February this year, the number of mobile users grew 3.374 million, less than a third of new subscriptions in the same period last year.

4G mobile user numbers grew over 20 million in the period. They account for 10 per cent of all mobile users in China.

The report also shows that mobile internet users increased 8.175 million between January and February , a 5.3 per cent increase bringing the total to 883 million.

Mobile internet users grew to 843 million - the highest level since January 2014.

The penetration rate of mobile phone users reached 65.4 per cent, up 0.4 per cent from the previous year.

Wireless internet subscribers reached 16.219 million, 944,000 fewer than in the previous month.
 
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Chinese firm takes stake in French airport
China Daily, March 18, 2015

e89a8f5fc4c216730ca102.jpg
The Toulouse-Blagnac Airport. [File photo]

The Shandong provincial government has approved the acquisition by Shandong Hi-speed Group Co Ltd of a 49.99 percent share in Toulouse-Blagnac Airport, the fourth-largest in France, for 308 million euros ($326.39 million).

The Shandong Development and Reform Commission released the specific acquisition program on its official website early this month.


Shandong Hi-speed Group, a State-owned investing and operating company involved in the road, rail and maritime transport segments, together with Friedman Pacific Asset Management Ltd, a Hong Kong-based investment company, formed a consortium to complete the acquisition, according to the local government's announcement.

The French government and authorities will retain a 50.01 percent stake in the airport. France chose the Chinese consortium from among a field of bidders in late 2014.

"The consortium has the ambition to develop the airport, based on the dynamic and attractive regions of Toulouse," said a statement released by French officials in December.

Employment and airport traffic are forecast to increase after the acquisition, it said.

The consortium has taken into consideration the long-term interests of the European aircraft builder Airbus SAS, which is based in Toulouse, the statement said.

The question was whether the acquisition would limit Airbus' capacity to expand production or raise its costs of using the airport.

Airbus has said that the decision on the new shareholding of Toulouse airport does not affect its flight operations activities at the airport.

Passenger throughput at the airport was 7.5 million in 2013, with cargo shipments of 60,000 metric tons, according to its annual report. Total assets were about 317 million euros that year, with operating revenue of 117 million euros.

China's strong outbound tourism market and the euro's weakness are prompting Chinese companies to invest in transportation infrastructure in Europe, experts said.

Statistics from the French tourism authority show that 1.7 million Chinese travelers visited France in 2013. Inbound arrivals from China were estimated at 2 million in 2014.

"As a State-owned company, Shandong Hi-speed Group's acquisition may make it easier for Chinese carriers to launch routes from Shandong province to Toulouse, since plenty of Chinese local governments are interested in international routes", said Li Xiaojin, a professor at the Tianjin-based Civil Aviation University of China.

As a builder and operator of high-speed transit, Shandong Hi-speed Group may look into more opportunities for high-speed road development in France, Li said.

***

The simple arithmetic of China's growth slowdown
By Danny Quah
March 18, 2015

What does China's growth slowdown mean to you?

I ask here not about the New World Order, Global Power Shifts, or whether the US retains its position as global hegemony. Nor do I mean the impact on the world economy, a colossal actual thing, but still a relatively abstract concept.

No, I mean, what does this slowdown in 2015 mean for you, looking to China as an export market; or you, in China, seeking employment as your labor market adjusts to its New Normal.

d02788e9b6de1673102f03.png














In 2014 China's GDP grew 7.4 percent, its slowest rate of increase since 1990. This seems an epic change from when that economy regularly turned in double-digit growth. The effect of this slowdown on those who sell to China and on those working in China must be extreme.

But maybe not. Why? Let's do the arithmetic.

Suppose the year is not 2015 but 2005, exactly a decade ago, and you're an exporter, somewhere in the rest of the world, predicting China will grow, say, 12 percent over the coming 12 months. China's GDP then was $2.3 trillion at market exchange rates.

(Since you're selling to China, you don't care about Purchasing Power Parity correction. What matters to you are nominal values at market exchange rates, i.e., in this case the size of China's footprint in the global market place at rates of exchange that see actual financial value changing hands.)

You expect China's marketplace will increase by $274 billion (12 percent of $2.3tn). Whatever fraction of that market you sell to, that's what counts for your bottom line.

Now, fast forward to 2015. China's growth might be as low as 7 percent these next 12 months. But, meantime China's economy has become a lot larger than it was in 2005. How much larger? The IMF's World Economic Outlook Oct 2014 forecast that for 2015 China's economy, at market exchange rates, will come in at $11.3 trillion. At this scale, growth of a mere 7 percent will increase the size of China's footprint in the global economy by $790 billion over the next 12 months.

To put matters in perspective, this increase of $790 billion is 2.8 times the size of the increase of $274 billion 10 years ago. Thus, even at an expected growth rate a full five percentage points lower than that someone a decade ago might have optimistically forecast, China will generate economic growth in absolute magnitude almost three times larger than it did then.

But, wait, the world today overall, not just China, has changed. A representative exporter will gauge prospects for selling to China based not just on China's scale, but also that of their own economy. Let's do the arithmetic on that.

Suppose you're an exporting business in the US. Ten years ago US GDP was $13.1 trillion; the IMF reckons that in 2015 the US economy will produce GDP equal to $18.3 trillion. Relative to the size of the US economy, China's expected 7 percent expansion in 2015 will be an increase in a potential export market of 4.3 percent; 10 years ago, that same ratio was just 2.1 percent. Put differently, China's expansion over the next 12 months – even at only 7 percent – will represent for a typical US exporter, relative to the economy he lives in, more than a doubling of the increase in size of this potential export market.

And what if you're not in the US? If you're in the EU, China's expansion is even more of an increased opportunity. Only if you're a fast-growing economy like the ASEAN-5, does China's 7 percent growth mean something not quite so large. But even then, the worst you can say is that China's 7 percent growth means you can expect simply the same relative increase in export business with China as you did a decade ago. That's hardly a catastrophe.


(The Table below traces out a range of numbers, confirming that the positive outcome I've just described for the US and the EU continues to hold even if China went to 6 percent growth, only a little bit less so. Of course if China's growth comes in at 8 percent, the news is correspondingly better.)

d02788e9b6de16730fdd01.jpg

But, finally, what about the capacity of China's economy to create jobs? In 2013, the latest year reported in the World Bank's World Development Indicators, China's labor force numbered 793.3 million. China's average productivity (using IMF WEO GDP numbers) was, therefore, $11,900; this had grown by 12 percent from the previous year. If productivity were to continue to grow at that same rate, then an expansion of China's GDP by $790b will generate 53 million new jobs. Since China's rural population is about 500 million (slightly less than half of its total population), if all those 53 million new jobs were urban, this would still absorb 10 percent of the rural population as migrants.

(Again, the Table below shows what would happen for variation around this scenario.)

The conclusion? China in 2015 is a very different economy from even just 10 years earlier. China has changed far more than the world has in this time. A 7 percent growth rate is obviously lower than an 8 percent one. So, whatever good comes from a 7 percent growth rate, at the margin a growth rate a little higher will be even better. But, quantifying the changes that have taken place in the global economy, a 7 percent growth rate for China today means something even more positive than did a 12 percent growth rate 10 years ago.

One can of course imagine scenarios where China's slowdown ends up much worse for, say, ASEAN, than that indicated here. If spillovers (not from trade connections but something else) unfurled across the rest of the world as a consequence, then a China shock would come with far more damaging effects on the ASEAN economy. But just as plausibly a China slowdown might itself be caused by, perhaps, a resurgence in US manufacturing. Then the overall effects on ASEAN or anywhere else in the world will depend on the relative strengths of the two opposing effects: the US driving ASEAN exports against China slowing them. However that unfolds, the final effect on ASEAN will not be caused by just a slowdown in China's growth. Finally, if China's growth slows from having switched to greater reliance on domestic consumption, then export opportunities for the rest of the world will simply be correspondingly larger.

U5403P31DT20150304184434.jpg
 
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Chinese firm takes stake in French airport
China Daily, March 18, 2015

e89a8f5fc4c216730ca102.jpg
The Toulouse-Blagnac Airport. [File photo]

The Shandong provincial government has approved the acquisition by Shandong Hi-speed Group Co Ltd of a 49.99 percent share in Toulouse-Blagnac Airport, the fourth-largest in France, for 308 million euros ($326.39 million).

The Shandong Development and Reform Commission released the specific acquisition program on its official website early this month.


Shandong Hi-speed Group, a State-owned investing and operating company involved in the road, rail and maritime transport segments, together with Friedman Pacific Asset Management Ltd, a Hong Kong-based investment company, formed a consortium to complete the acquisition, according to the local government's announcement.

The French government and authorities will retain a 50.01 percent stake in the airport. France chose the Chinese consortium from among a field of bidders in late 2014.

"The consortium has the ambition to develop the airport, based on the dynamic and attractive regions of Toulouse," said a statement released by French officials in December.

Employment and airport traffic are forecast to increase after the acquisition, it said.

The consortium has taken into consideration the long-term interests of the European aircraft builder Airbus SAS, which is based in Toulouse, the statement said.

The question was whether the acquisition would limit Airbus' capacity to expand production or raise its costs of using the airport.

Airbus has said that the decision on the new shareholding of Toulouse airport does not affect its flight operations activities at the airport.

Passenger throughput at the airport was 7.5 million in 2013, with cargo shipments of 60,000 metric tons, according to its annual report. Total assets were about 317 million euros that year, with operating revenue of 117 million euros.

China's strong outbound tourism market and the euro's weakness are prompting Chinese companies to invest in transportation infrastructure in Europe, experts said.

Statistics from the French tourism authority show that 1.7 million Chinese travelers visited France in 2013. Inbound arrivals from China were estimated at 2 million in 2014.

"As a State-owned company, Shandong Hi-speed Group's acquisition may make it easier for Chinese carriers to launch routes from Shandong province to Toulouse, since plenty of Chinese local governments are interested in international routes", said Li Xiaojin, a professor at the Tianjin-based Civil Aviation University of China.

As a builder and operator of high-speed transit, Shandong Hi-speed Group may look into more opportunities for high-speed road development in France, Li said.

***

The simple arithmetic of China's growth slowdown
By Danny Quah
March 18, 2015

What does China's growth slowdown mean to you?

I ask here not about the New World Order, Global Power Shifts, or whether the US retains its position as global hegemony. Nor do I mean the impact on the world economy, a colossal actual thing, but still a relatively abstract concept.

No, I mean, what does this slowdown in 2015 mean for you, looking to China as an export market; or you, in China, seeking employment as your labor market adjusts to its New Normal.

d02788e9b6de1673102f03.png














In 2014 China's GDP grew 7.4 percent, its slowest rate of increase since 1990. This seems an epic change from when that economy regularly turned in double-digit growth. The effect of this slowdown on those who sell to China and on those working in China must be extreme.

But maybe not. Why? Let's do the arithmetic.

Suppose the year is not 2015 but 2005, exactly a decade ago, and you're an exporter, somewhere in the rest of the world, predicting China will grow, say, 12 percent over the coming 12 months. China's GDP then was $2.3 trillion at market exchange rates.

(Since you're selling to China, you don't care about Purchasing Power Parity correction. What matters to you are nominal values at market exchange rates, i.e., in this case the size of China's footprint in the global market place at rates of exchange that see actual financial value changing hands.)

You expect China's marketplace will increase by $274 billion (12 percent of $2.3tn). Whatever fraction of that market you sell to, that's what counts for your bottom line.

Now, fast forward to 2015. China's growth might be as low as 7 percent these next 12 months. But, meantime China's economy has become a lot larger than it was in 2005. How much larger? The IMF's World Economic Outlook Oct 2014 forecast that for 2015 China's economy, at market exchange rates, will come in at $11.3 trillion. At this scale, growth of a mere 7 percent will increase the size of China's footprint in the global economy by $790 billion over the next 12 months.

To put matters in perspective, this increase of $790 billion is 2.8 times the size of the increase of $274 billion 10 years ago. Thus, even at an expected growth rate a full five percentage points lower than that someone a decade ago might have optimistically forecast, China will generate economic growth in absolute magnitude almost three times larger than it did then.

But, wait, the world today overall, not just China, has changed. A representative exporter will gauge prospects for selling to China based not just on China's scale, but also that of their own economy. Let's do the arithmetic on that.

Suppose you're an exporting business in the US. Ten years ago US GDP was $13.1 trillion; the IMF reckons that in 2015 the US economy will produce GDP equal to $18.3 trillion. Relative to the size of the US economy, China's expected 7 percent expansion in 2015 will be an increase in a potential export market of 4.3 percent; 10 years ago, that same ratio was just 2.1 percent. Put differently, China's expansion over the next 12 months – even at only 7 percent – will represent for a typical US exporter, relative to the economy he lives in, more than a doubling of the increase in size of this potential export market.

And what if you're not in the US? If you're in the EU, China's expansion is even more of an increased opportunity. Only if you're a fast-growing economy like the ASEAN-5, does China's 7 percent growth mean something not quite so large. But even then, the worst you can say is that China's 7 percent growth means you can expect simply the same relative increase in export business with China as you did a decade ago. That's hardly a catastrophe.


(The Table below traces out a range of numbers, confirming that the positive outcome I've just described for the US and the EU continues to hold even if China went to 6 percent growth, only a little bit less so. Of course if China's growth comes in at 8 percent, the news is correspondingly better.)

d02788e9b6de16730fdd01.jpg

But, finally, what about the capacity of China's economy to create jobs? In 2013, the latest year reported in the World Bank's World Development Indicators, China's labor force numbered 793.3 million. China's average productivity (using IMF WEO GDP numbers) was, therefore, $11,900; this had grown by 12 percent from the previous year. If productivity were to continue to grow at that same rate, then an expansion of China's GDP by $790b will generate 53 million new jobs. Since China's rural population is about 500 million (slightly less than half of its total population), if all those 53 million new jobs were urban, this would still absorb 10 percent of the rural population as migrants.

(Again, the Table below shows what would happen for variation around this scenario.)

The conclusion? China in 2015 is a very different economy from even just 10 years earlier. China has changed far more than the world has in this time. A 7 percent growth rate is obviously lower than an 8 percent one. So, whatever good comes from a 7 percent growth rate, at the margin a growth rate a little higher will be even better. But, quantifying the changes that have taken place in the global economy, a 7 percent growth rate for China today means something even more positive than did a 12 percent growth rate 10 years ago.

One can of course imagine scenarios where China's slowdown ends up much worse for, say, ASEAN, than that indicated here. If spillovers (not from trade connections but something else) unfurled across the rest of the world as a consequence, then a China shock would come with far more damaging effects on the ASEAN economy. But just as plausibly a China slowdown might itself be caused by, perhaps, a resurgence in US manufacturing. Then the overall effects on ASEAN or anywhere else in the world will depend on the relative strengths of the two opposing effects: the US driving ASEAN exports against China slowing them. However that unfolds, the final effect on ASEAN will not be caused by just a slowdown in China's growth. Finally, if China's growth slows from having switched to greater reliance on domestic consumption, then export opportunities for the rest of the world will simply be correspondingly larger.

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Completely agree with your 2nd article.

Also @TaiShang as for your first article, I hope China has done good calculations for returns. Making investment is not necessarily good.Making Returns on those investments is what counts.

There are numerous cases where China has made huge investments for them to essentially fail.
 
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Completely agree with your 2nd article.

Also @TaiShang as for your first article, I hope China has done good calculations for returns. Making investment is not necessarily good.Making Returns on those investments is what counts.

There are numerous cases where China has made huge investments for them to essentially fail.

There are numerous cases where anybody made an investment and ended up losing and losing badly. Everybody is profit oriented; but, because they bet into future, they cannot control all the variables that are not here today -- yet.

Maybe France will go through an economic crisis and people will travel less. And the airport management will lose money. Or, maybe just the opposite.

The Mercedes-Benz -- Chrysler merger. Ended up in failure.

Or General Motors' purchase of FIAT. GM lost money badly. To sell FIAT back, it paid about 2billion USD. Till to day, GM is bleeding in its Opel operations in Europe.

This airport has been purchased by a consortium (public-private) and, certainly, they will not invest money if they think they will lose.
 
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There are numerous cases where anybody made an investment and ended up losing and losing badly. Everybody is profit oriented; but, because they bet into future, they cannot control all the variables that are not here today -- yet.

Maybe France will go through an economic crisis and people will travel less. And the airport management will lose money. Or, maybe just the opposite.

The Mercedes-Benz -- Chrysler merger. Ended up in failure.

Or General Motors' purchase of FIAT. GM lost money badly. To sell FIAT back, it paid about 2billion USD. Till to day, GM is bleeding in its Opel operations in Europe.

This airport has been purchased by a consortium (public-private) and, certainly, they will not invest money if they think they will lose.


I understand that logic.

Actually you should read about China Investment Corp. which is a sovereign wealth fund of the People's Republic of China, with a total asset under control of around 650 billion dollars. Not only this, it has been giving an annualized return of 5.7% since it's founding, which is pretty decent.

But the individual investments, are getting more flak, largely because they are not signed by expert, and also because they don't have proper risk management mechanisms. Individual Chinese banks, and even ministries are not that trained in finance and investment as say the PBoC officials or these Bank officials which employ best human resources in China.

This is one of the reasons why China has been pushing for more sovereign wealth funds, and investment banks to handle its investment portfolio. These institutions are much better at handling investments.

Individual cases, and ministries are not. You can check many investments gone bust. Like Fortis investment.

Also at the face of it, I wouldn't invest in Europe which is essentially a dying continent, with no long term returns, adverse demographics etc. Obviously I don't know the individual dynamics of this particular portfolio investment.
 
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Interesting comment on Global Times:

"The USA has borrowed at least US$6218 billion from foreign countries according to US Treasury Department (treasury gov) on January 2015.

It is very strange for the USA to be able to loan some of this money to some of the same countries which loan USA the money, and under conditions and terms imposed by the USA through World Bank and IMF."

LOL.
 
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Interesting comment on Global Times:

"The USA has borrowed at least US$6218 billion from foreign countries according to US Treasury Department (treasury gov) on January 2015.

It is very strange for the USA to be able to loan some of this money to some of the same countries which loan USA the money, and under conditions and terms imposed by the USA through World Bank and IMF."

LOL.

Actually US would have already essentially ended if not for the Reserve currency status.
 
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Third-party audit on way for overseas assets of SOEs
China Daily, March 18, 2015

China is to launch a comprehensive audit of the overseas assets of its State-owned enterprises in an attempt to tighten oversight of their international operations.

The country's top state-asset regulator issued an invitation on Tuesday for tenders to audit the assets.

It is the first time that the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has decided to audit overseas state assets through a tender offer.

Analysts said the move underscores the government's intention to improve transparency of the auditing system by inviting independent third parties to take part in the process based on market principles.

The auditing initiative will involve 12.4 million yuan ($2 million) from the fiscal budget, and the bidding result will be announced on April 7, the commission said in a statement.

To avoid a potential conflict of interest, organizations eligible for the bidding must not have provided accounting or auditing services between January 2012 and December last year to SOEs or their overseas subsidiaries that were inspected by the commission, the statement said.

Accounting firms that are eligible must be incorporated in China and have licenses issued by government agencies and ministries, it added.

Xu Baoli, director of the commission's research center, said the regulator's decision shows that there are potential risks or even serious problems with the overseas assets held by SOEs.

"Comprehensive auditing will allow the regulator to gain an overall knowledge of the situation and to learn how serious the problems are, so that it can take the necessary measures to tackle them," Xu said.

The value of overseas assets of SOEs under direct central government supervision is estimated at about 4 trillion yuan.

But Dong Dasheng, a former national deputy auditor-in-chief, said this month there has been a lack of supervision of these assets, as virtually no auditing has been conducted.

Some analysts said the commission's inspection may also be part of the ongoing anti-corruption campaign that has led to the downfall of senior executives in the energy, railway, financial and telecommunication sectors.

Li Jin, vice-president of the China Enterprise Reform and Development Society, a government think tank, said making auditing an institutionalized and transparent system is crucial to preventing corruption and loss of state assets.

SOEs have been key players as Chinese enterprises increase their overseas exposure. The country became a net capital exporter last year, with outbound direct investment reaching a record $102.9 billion.
 
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Shanghai-based Genitop Sues Qualcomm for $100b
2015-03-18

eceaedc9a831448ebc2cf0a479c3a20a.jpg


A logo sits illuminated outside the Qualcomm Inc. pavilion at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain, on Monday, March 2, 2015. [Photo: CFP]

Chinese semiconductor manufacturer Genitop Research is suing US chip maker Qualcomm for 100 billion U.S. dollars, alleging trademark infringement.

Genitop is a Shanghai-based firm which develops Chinese character processing software and semiconductors.

The company alleges Qualcomm has infringed on its China-registered trade mark by using the Chinese phrase "Gaotong" in its Chinese company name and product brand.

Genitop says it registered the phrase, which means "high communication," as its trademark in 1992.

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China, Nepal Jointly Invest 300 Mln Dollars on Cement Project
2015-03-18

Two private companies from China and Nepal signed an agreement of joint venture investment worth 300 million U.S. dollars here on Tuesday for cement production in Nepal.

The investment, one of biggest in Nepal's cement sector, has a 7:3 equity structure between Hongshi Holdings Limited of China and Nepal's Shiva Cement.

"This project with advanced technology will adopt a new dry process with the use of 95 percent domestic raw materials," Xu Youyuan, Executive Vice President of the Chinese company said at the signing ceremony.

Xu said that Hongshi were attracted to Nepal's market by its booming cement industry in 2012. According to the Nepal Cement Manufacturers' Association, there are over 40 cement plants in this Himalayan nation and domestic products only account for 85 percent of the total consumption in this country.

Addressing the ceremony, Finance Minister of Nepal Ram Sharan Mahat said that the signing of this project was a landmark between the economic ties of the two neighbors.

Mahat said he was happy to see that Chinese investors showed their confidence in Nepal and he hoped this ambitious investment would make Nepal an exporter of cement in the future.

Also on Tuesday morning, the minister witnessed an agreement signed by China and Nepal, according to which China would grant assistance for Nepal's development.
 
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Large gold deposit found in north China
Source:Xinhua Published: 2015-3-18 20:54:36

A large gold deposit with estimated reserves of more than 100 tons has been discovered in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the local land and resource authority announced on Wednesday.

The deposit, which covers an area of 20 square kilometers, is located in the Araxan Left Banner, according to the banner (county) land and resource bureau.

The deposit could be exploited for 30 years with an annual exploitation capacity of 3 tons, according to the bureau.

Araxan region, which borders Mongolia, has more than 80 types of mineral reserves.
 
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Hengqin links Portuguese-speaking countries
China.org.cn, March 18, 2015

The year 2015 marks the beginning of the free trade era in Hengqin. In 2017, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge will come into service. In 2020, the Overall Development Plan of Hengqin will enter the closing phase.

"Hengqin is to strengthen cooperation with Portuguese-speaking countries," noted Liu Jia, secretary of the Party committee of Hengqin New Area on Jan. 30, 2015. A Sino-Portuguese Commodity Exhibition Center and a cross-border e-commerce platform will be built. Through its collaboration with Brazil, Portugal and Angola, Hengqin will open up free trade channels with Latin America, Europe and Africa respectively.

"In particular, the Hengqin - Africa free trade channel will be an important strategic fulcrum of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road," Liu said.

In 2015, Hengqin New Area is to draw up a number of implementation rules and operational guidelines for the promotion of the negative list management mode of foreign investment admission and its free service trade and investment facilitation with Hong Kong and Macao. The construction of the basic system, the management system and the legal system for the FTZ test area will also begin.

OECD revises growth outlook for Brazil, China, India
March 19, 2015, 4:31 am



brazil-poor.jpg

Brazilian social welfare programs like Brasil Sem Miséria and Bolsa Família, have brought millions out of poverty [Xinhua Images]

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that Brazil’s economy will contract 0.5 percent in 2015, according to a report released on Wednesday.

The figure, presented in an economic update compiled by the Paris-based agency, represents a downward adjustment of its earlier November forecast, which projected 1.5-per cent growth for the South American giant.

Brazil, the only country of the 11 listed to expect a contraction, is also projected to struggle in 2016, with predicted growth of 1.2 per cent, down from the 2 per cent forecast in November and the lowest growth rate of the countries listed.

The OECD’s figures are similar to those forecast by Brazil’s financial market, which revised its earlier growth forecast on Monday, saying the economy will contract 0.78 per cent.

The country’s government has admitted that the economy may come to a recession, but has issued no figure.

Brazil’s 2014 growth rate will be reported on March 27, and is expected to register a drop of 0.15 per cent.

Meanwhile, the OECD forecast said the Indian economy will grow 7.7 per cent in 2015 and 8 per cent in 2016. OECD’s upward revision for India is due to a revamp in India’s GDP numbers that has bumped up growth from what was earlier estimated under the factor cost method. It has warned however, that obstacles have emerged to reforms by the Narendra Modi-led government, highlighting tough choices ahead.

China is pegged to grow at 7 per cent in both these years.

The OECD projects that the US will grow by 3.1 per cent this year and by 3 per cent in 2016, while the UK is projected to grow at 2.6 per cent in 2015 and 2.5 per cent in 2016.

“Lower oil prices and widespread monetary easing have brought the world economy to a turning point, with the potential for the acceleration of growth that has been needed in many countries,” said OECD Chief Economist Catherine L. Mann. “There is no room for complacency, however, as excessive reliance on monetary policy alone is building-up financial risks, while not yet reviving business investment.”

The OECD tracks its 34 advanced economy members, in addition to issuing forecasts and surveys of large non-member countries like India.
 
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