China Economy Forum

[dray]

China is a super big developing country..
Every part is developing, from poor to rich.
Also CNY is under devaluation internally.
So the debt is really nothing big deal..
Today`s debt at dangerous level is no longer that bad after a few years..

Devaluation of CNY is actually a sign of the problem, China is trying to 'inflate away' the bad debt. You might also see lesser interest rates on loan to boost internal consumption.

However, good to know that you were in India, how was the trip? We should also encourage tourism among our countries, better people to people contact will help in better understanding of each others culture and traditions.

 

[SarthakGanguly]

The impending fall of Chinese economy will have some impact on global economy, even if for a few years. We need to plan accordingly. Also we need to learn from there mistakes.

Aiming for a 10+% GDP growth for 5 years for example is of no use if we have a debt ridden economy that leaves the growth hollow in the end. Sustainable development of even 7% is going to do wonders. Great nations are not built in a day. Those that are(like Nazi Germany and Soviet Union) are lost in a day. India's growth model, though faulty has no overstretched itself. Though the reserves are much lower than China, at least we are not forced to feed this to internal infrastructure to keep a manufactured GDP growth.Over time, as the new reforms kick in and the Make in India suceeds(it has gained speed) the manufacturing sector will flourish in here as local demand is high. A 7% growth on paper may even translate to a higher growth on the ground.

 

[vsdave2302]

After all economics is something how the scarre resources are spent. If they are spent recklessly, It is agaist the principles of economics and will not have a positive effect on economy which should have been there with the quantom of spending.

e.g A road is build where there is a little trafic. Now spending on building of road is resulted in rise in GDP but the quantom of benifit which should derived out of this spending is lacking in terms of Saving of tranaportation time and savings of fuel.

 

[dray]

reading your posts on China and Modi is pretty funny.

You guys have unshaken faith in him, yet no faith in China, for obvious reasons.

Does China have problems? Does US have problems? Does India, everyone's got problems, but it's how we handle them.

I didn't read all of it, but let's look at the time line, at first property building and luxury apartments and shopping centres were seen as a waste in China, than it was HSR and ghost cities, bad debts, and all that.

But do you know how many cities have 300,000 or more in population in China? They could be ghost cities but they are not, you can't just look at the cities that have filled, but the cities that were never ghost cities in the first place.

I'm sure China will face some kind of problem at some point that will need restructuring, but I can't personally predict that.


Are there bad decisions? Obviously, Kobe bryant missed the most shots in NBA, but he has made way more than almost everybody. You have to look at the whole body of work.

India doesn't have as big as a ghost city problem, how many of those smart cities you have running out of the 100? Or so? Can you guarantee the success of all of them? You don't have this problem, same as Scalabrin doesn't miss as many shots, cause he warms the bench relative to Kobe.

You play in the game, you will miss shots.

Kobe Bryant didn't take billions of dollars of loans from banks for every shot that he missed.

 

[hans]

Right China is inflate away the bad debt..
You can buy only half of the products with same money 7 years ago.
Yet people make 4 times of salary than 7 years ago.
So in total people`s life is still improving and the society is stable.
So this kind of strategy only apply in big developing country with strong potential...
And it works for China.

As a business visit to supplier in India, I see that India is getting started on manufacturing industry.
Still slow copy of China`s model 30 years ago, using cheap labor to assembly certain components.
But as China`s labor cost is increasing very fast, I see the trend of moving industry to India..
China will maintain the middle and some high end manufacturing and India will take over the low end.

You are right. This kind of communication is necessary..
With better communication, we can see advantage from others, learn from others and respect others..
By only talking here, we are not able to see much of the world..

Devaluation of CNY is actually a sign of the problem, China is trying to 'inflate away' the bad debt. You might also see lesser interest rates on loan to boost internal consumption.

However, good to know that you were in India, how was the trip? We should also encourage tourism among our countries, better people to people contact will help in better understanding of each others culture and traditions.

 

[Genesis]

Kobe Bryant didn't take billions of dollars of loans from banks for every shot that he missed.

in relative basketball terms, what about the air balls of his early years that cost the team the playoffs, his Boston series, his thing with Shaq that caused Shaq to leave, and all of that.

In the end he will still be better remembered as one of the best, five rings, 81 points and the shots he did make.

This isn't a comparison to India, just that, if you take enough shots, you will miss them and if you don't, you won't make the 30 million a year he's making and you will ride the bench and nobody cares about you.

btw, there are over 160 cities over 1 million in population, want to venture a guess how many are above 500,000?

How many of them were built in the last 20 years, and put this and the ghost cities together what is the percentage.

Let's not forget another 200 million will move to the cities in the next 10-15 years.

Not all will be populated, as some are just stupid, but more will be built and more will be used.

 

[TheTruth]

US controls the world economy in more ways than you can imagine, you are playing their game by their rules. I would rather take the opinion of western economists than anybody else. Btw, even many chinese economists are not very positive about the economic mess in China.

Are you retarded? Your link was WESTERN economists debunking self-critical nonsense by CHINESE economics.

Can Indians read? Also bad debts in China are something like <500 billion, compared to total bank assets of 23,000 billion that's not that much.

 

[BoQ77]

Let's Xi manage with those issues. We, outsiders, never pay tax to China.

 

[vsdave2302]

Aiming for a 10+% GDP growth for 5 years for example is of no use if we have a debt ridden economy that leaves the growth hollow in the end. Sustainable development of even 7% is going to do wonders. Great nations are not built in a day. Those that are(like Nazi Germany and Soviet Union) are lost in a day. India's growth model, though faulty has no overstretched itself. Though the reserves are much lower than China, at least we are not forced to feed this to internal infrastructure to keep a manufactured GDP growth.Over time, as the new reforms kick in and the Make in India suceeds(it has gained speed) the manufacturing sector will flourish in here as local demand is high. A 7% growth on paper may even translate to a higher growth on the ground.

I remember one quote of A B Vajpayee. He said that eventhough we do not echieve our GDP target but we are able to provide faciliteis and aminities to poor and rural area as we have planned, we shall consider ourselves successful on this front.

So it is very important to locate the right avenue of spending. A small investment in some area may have a big positive effect. Take for an example the accounts openned for Pradhan mantri Jan dhan yojana. There are Rs 5k Crore in put by the people in these accounts. From quontum point of view, this is not a big accounts. However see it otherwise. The poors who were hidding there mone here and there has put it safely in bank and earning modest interest. This may have a huge economical and psychological effect. The facility which was available to urban class has reached to rural class now.

 

[hans]

That is not easy..
Made in China is not something easy to avoid..
People all need Chinese low cost high quality products to improve their life.
Otherwise they are still in very bad situation...

Let's Xi manage with those issues. We, outsiders, never pay tax to China.

 

[rcrmj]

these clownish indians``lol, have you lot built enough toilet$ yet, or do you even know to build one?

 

[SarthakGanguly]

I remember one quote of A B Vajpayee. He said that eventhough we do not echieve our GDP target but we are able to provide faciliteis and aminities to poor and rural area as we have planned, we shall consider ourselves successful on this front.

So it is very important to locate the right avenue of spending. A small investment in some area may have a big positive effect. Take for an example the accounts openned for Pradhan mantri Jan dhan yojana. There are Rs 5k Crore in put by the people in these accounts. From quontum point of view, this is not a big accounts. However see it otherwise. The poors who were hidding there mone here and there has put it safely in bank and earning modest interest. This may have a huge economical and psychological effect. The facility which was available to urban class has reached to rural class now.

True. Many social programmes don't have much effect on the GDP in the short term. The gains are visible over decades. Like the millions of new bank accounts opened - will this boost the GDP? Absolutely not. But even if 1% of the farmers grow to become a major trader etc, it will have cumulative positive effects for the local economy. Even that won't be reflected in a major way on the GDP, but good work still

Thing is we should never implement a system like the Hukou system that is in China, keeps Chinese cities clean from the so called 'filth' and cheap laborers. The labor force is not even allowed to stay in the cities - they live outside the limits and are transported everyday so that the city's infrastructure is not taxed! The effects are beautiful in one side and grotesque in another.
Hukou system - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

That is not easy..
Made in China is not something easy to avoid..
People all need Chinese low cost high quality products to improve their life.
Otherwise they are still in very bad situation...

Nobody is denying Chinese qualities - especially the hard work of Chinese workers. But the people deciding their country's future, the big bosses who need a high GDP on their report cards, kickbacks from foreign corporations doing the manufacturing in China are the ones who are responsible for this mess. And let me assure you, the poor and middle class people like you will have to pay for their folly, because the uber rich will have investments in foreign currency that will not be devalued. People with Chinese currency will. The lack of accountability and a non democratic government makes this business lucrative and easy.

I am also not saying that your financial guys are bad. They are not. But those at the highest echelons are making a grave mistake. For short term gain...

these clownish indians``lol, have you lot built enough toilet$ yet, or do you even know to build one?

Please stick to the topic. Thanks.

 

[hans]

I would suggest you to come to China, see the reality and your mind will change..
Your comment is based on nature feeling of ordinary people.
Yet from a country`s view point, a strategy view is more important.

True. Many social programmes don't have much effect on the GDP in the short term. The gains are visible over decades. Like the millions of new bank accounts opened - will this boost the GDP? Absolutely not. But even if 1% of the farmers grow to become a major trader etc, it will have cumulative positive effects for the local economy. Even that won't be reflected in a major way on the GDP, but good work still

Thing is we should never implement a system like the Hukou system that is in China, keeps Chinese cities clean from the so called 'filth' and cheap laborers. The labor force is not even allowed to stay in the cities - they live outside the limits and are transported everyday so that the city's infrastructure is not taxed! The effects are beautiful in one side and grotesque in another.
Hukou system - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Nobody is denying Chinese qualities - especially the hard work of Chinese workers. But the people deciding their country's future, the big bosses who need a high GDP on their report cards, kickbacks from foreign corporations doing the manufacturing in China are the ones who are responsible for this mess. And let me assure you, the poor and middle class people like you will have to pay for their folly, because the uber rich will have investments in foreign currency that will not be devalued. People with Chinese currency will. The lack of accountability and a non democratic government makes this business lucrative and easy.

I am also not saying that your financial guys are bad. They are not. But those at the highest echelons are making a grave mistake. For short term gain...


Please stick to the topic. Thanks.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

And let me assure you, the poor and middle class people like you will have to pay for their folly, because the uber rich will have investments in foreign currency that will not be devalued. People with Chinese currency will. The lack of accountability and a non democratic government makes this business lucrative and easy.

The Chinese Yuan has been rising constantly against the dollar for the past 5 years...

BBC News - Chinese yuan reaches record high

Whereas the Indian Rupee fell from 39 a few years ago... to the current 62.

 

[Arya Desa]

Why can't we all be friends? This is why the West is stronger than us, because they put aside their differences for a common goal. Meanwhile in Asia, people fight over the most trivial of matters.