China Economy Forum

[Arya Desa]

1. do you dispute the facts in the news: that there is not such bridge built. Or that it is a great bridge which is going to actually be of any use anytime soon?

2. USD 350 million is about 0.005 per cent of the wasted investment of $ 6700 billion. So, yes it is a small amount of the over all such things.

3. Yes, it is just one example. There are quite few well known to the world outside china. And the analysts who put together the $6700 may not be aware of many such.

Say if it is even true, this 6.7$ trillion farce. What does it matter to us? Is that your money lost? Did you break your back building those bridges?

 

[Beast]

Indian govt. is not putting any money for the high speed bullet train. It is asking PRIVATE players to invest and recover the money. See the difference ?

This at least show at least India government is buying the idea of having a high speed train, right? As for the government asking others to invest and thinking it will work without putting a single dollars is just like India thinking they can get their way with French on Rafale deal. It will not do much help to India AF modernisation but slow it down.

Same as India economy development. Modi is as inefficient as former congress if he really thinks that way.

 

[Prajapati]

Say if it is even true, this 6.7$ trillion farce. What does it matter to us? Is that your money lost? Did you break your back building those bridges?

Well for one, its that much less money that is going into PLA

This at least show at least India government is buying the idea of having a high speed train, right? As for the government asking others to invest and thinking it will work without putting a single dollars is just like India thinking they can get their way with French on Rafale deal. It will not do much help to India AF modernisation but slow it down.

Same as India economy development. Modi is as inefficient as former congress.

Why would Indian govt. have a problem if someone else put the money and build a bullet train ?

If they don't build it, they don't. India looses nothing. If they build it, India gains a bullet train. Either way we win.

At last count, both China and Japan are competing to build these in India so you are again wrong regarding Indian thinking.

 

[dray]

1) the article is sensationalist
2) 200 million GBP is not very much
3) It is one example.

Check the links, check the photos, there are too many!

Btw, photos in those links are really interesting, check once!

Four Years Later, A Journalist Revisited China's Most Famous Ghost City - Here's The Depressing Way It Has Changed | Business Insider India

Welcome to The World's Largest Ghost City: Ordos, China

China Builds Its Own Manhattan -- Except It's a Ghost Town - Bloomberg

Ordos, China: A Modern Ghost Town - Photo Essays - TIME

China's economic boom leaves a trail of ghost cities | Marketplace.org

 

[Swachh_Bharat]

Say if it is even true, this 6.7$ trillion farce. What does it matter to us? Is that your money lost? Did you break your back building those bridges?

As china goes down, we stopped selling iron ore to them at $180 per ton - which we did in 2011.

Instead, we begin buying iron ore from the world at $68 per ton.

As China demand slows, Indian iron ore imports surge to record| Reuters

Off course, yes, we can't sell steel to china now .. since they slow down.

India's engineering exports to China fell by 50 per cent in October: EEPC - The Economic Times

Net gain for us, still. I believe.

 

[dray]

Say if it is even true, this 6.7$ trillion farce. What does it matter to us? Is that your money lost? Did you break your back building those bridges?

The impending fall of Chinese economy will have some impact on global economy, even if for a few years. We need to plan accordingly. Also we need to learn from there mistakes.

 

[Beast]

Well for one, its that much less money that is going into PLA



Why would Indian govt. have a problem if someone else put the money and build a bullet train ?

If they don't build it, they don't. India looses nothing. If they build it, India gains a bullet train. Either way we win.

At last count, both China and Japan are competing to build these in India so you are again wrong regarding Indian thinking.

If they dont build, India will not develop as simple as that. Less travel less business, less good sends more business opportunities lose. Who wants to invest in a inefficient countries even the per worker's paid is dirt cheap if he cant ship out his goods out on time or inefficiently. It is Indian lost if she thinks she still can afford such delay.

Same as your submarine fleet and AF. Can you indians afford more delay?

The impending fall of Chinese economy will have some impact on global economy, even if for a few years. We need to plan accordingly. Also we need to learn from there mistakes.

See! My words come truth. Some indian just love cherry pick some west headbutt news to console themselves for their inefficiency. If Modi continue delay modernisation of India thinking foreign investment will be duped into dumping money into money out of desperation. Then I think there is no hope for India. Modi will just be another Singh. Just change a name.

 

[Faiez]

I think ultimately PBOC will need to print quite a lot of CNY in coming years.

People put their life savings into banks in CNY.

These savings were lent by banks to real estate developers to build unprofitable malls, unsaleable buildings, bridges to nowhere, unneeded factories.

Banks won't get their money back, as the underlying asset fails to earn money to repay.

If PBOC doesn't print CNY, to bail out the banks ... bank won't be able to pay back depositors. (which PBOC won't let happen, since the entire banking system will collapse -> People will start hoarding goods, rather than currency).

Printing money will imply inflation. However, this monetary boost doesn't help growth return ... because the printed money is bailing out bad debt, not creating new factories or means of production.

This is inflation, but no growth. "Stagflation" is the technical term.

With all the inflation, CNY will need to keep devaluing, otherwise the export markets will be lost as well..further worsening the situation.

Most of Chinese investments that were funded between 2009-14, were with iron ore at $150-180 per ton (not at $70), oil over $100 (not at $70). So, the capital cost locked in these factories make them less competitive to fresh capacities coming up elsewhere in the world.

China meltdown isn't going to be pleasant .. for the Chinese at least.

Did you even read the article?

And stagflation ? Really ? Stagflation is when there is no or limited growth and high inflation. China has great growth (it's slowing down but mostly meeting targets) and low inflation rates.

As for printing more money is concerned, they are currently more concerned over risk of price deflation. So it is incorrect to say they are melting down.

1. do you dispute the facts in the news: that there is not such bridge built. Or that it is a great bridge which is going to actually be of any use anytime soon?

2. USD 350 million is about 0.005 per cent of the wasted investment of $ 6700 billion. So, yes it is a small amount of the over all such things.

3. Yes, it is just one example. There are quite few well known to the world outside china. And the analysts who put together the $6700 may not be aware of many more such, than the ones they were able to count in.

the $6.7T figure according to the article is just plain wrong. The values they took for standard to be compared with were from long time ago when china was in it's infant years (growing very fast) and as the size of the economy increases, investment efficiency tends to go down. You can check american figures for a comparison, I'm sure they have even worse figures than china right now.

 

[Swachh_Bharat]

Did you even read the article?

And stagflation ? Really ? Stagflation is when there is no or limited growth and high inflation. China has great growth (it's slowing down but mostly meeting targets) and low inflation rates.

As for printing more money is concerned, they are currently more concerned over risk of price deflation. So it is incorrect to say they are melting down.

Inflation without growth will happen, if and only if PBOC begins to bail out bad debt.

If it chooses not to print .. it will be deflation. Too many goods produced.. but no money with anyone to buy them. Because every one's money in the bank has already been spent building factories.

No money with anyone .. same or more goods -> Deflation. That's their current problem.

Their growth has been all investment led and no consumption led.

They end up investing in things, which no one wants to consume.

CPC says: Why do you want rice, if you have high speed train. Stupid?

 

[Echo_419]

Let me show some headbutt news used to put up by west, trying to put down China development. They even laugh at China spending huge money on high speed rail as useless, dumb investment, uselss infrastruture building programs. This new was in 2011.

The Backlash Is Brewing Against Chinese High-Speed Rail: Here's Why It's In Trouble - Business Insider

Let fast forward to 2013 now.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/24/b...n-system-is-huge-success-for-china.html?_r=1&

And 2014 now, many countries are eager to emulate China so called expensive, useless high speed train infrastrutute building programs that included india.

China are building for the future now and not wait only for the needs. Such is the foresight of our CCP leader. The West can condemm how corrupted those CCP with recent many high profile cases of corrupted officers convicted but think about it. China has achieved world 2nd largest economy in 30 years time only. We are not as corrupted as many west wish us be.

Well to be fair HSR is quite Awesome & short range HSR (Not long ones) can bring great economic benifits to a region

 

[dray]

@Prajapati Some people will purposefully drag in India, Modi, etc. to derail the thread, please ignore them and stick to the topic..

Inflation without growth will happen, if and only if PBOC begins to bail out bad debt.

If it chooses not to print .. it will be deflation. Too many goods produced.. but no money with anyone to buy them. Because every one's money in the bank has already been spent building factories.

No money with anyone .. same or more goods -> Deflation. That's their current problem.

Their growth has been all investment led and no consumption led.

They end up investing in things, which no one wants to consume.

CPC says: Why do you want rice, if you have high speed train. Stupid?

A very good point.

 

[Prajapati]

If they dont build, India will not develop as simple as that. Less travel less business, less good sends more business opportunities lose. Who wants to invest in a inefficient countries even the per worker's paid is dirt cheap if he cant ship out his goods out on time or inefficiently. It is Indian lost if she thinks she still can afford such delay.

Same as your submarine fleet and AF. Can you indians afford more delay?

We are not in a Hurry, so we move at our own pace. At our convenience and when its best for us. We get to decide when to move, how to move, when not to move. We like it that way.

So far the investments into India has been very good, it appears to get better. So there is no complaints there either.

Industrial growth and services are also growing. So far so good and no complaints.

Now tell me again why is china investing in building a bullet train from Delhi to Chennai ?

 

[Swachh_Bharat]

Well to be fair HSR is quite Awesome & short range HSR (Not long ones) can bring great economic benifits to a region

1. You have to assume that economic feasibility studies were done.
2. They were found to support all the investment decisions that were actually made (or just actually ordered from Beijing by fiat).
3. The cost of HSR actually manages to recover the investment in normal economic course.

HSR is not new technology, which was unavailable to .. say USA, Europe or practically anyone who wanted to invest money.

There is no chinese technical innovation in HSR. They just decided the spend the money. And japs and Europeans found that it was bargain price to sell to china, to make a profit. Nobody knows till later, that the investment was wise or will end up as monuments of a people's republic in ruins and stagnation.

 

[Faiez]

Inflation without growth will happen, if and only if PBOC begins to bail out bad debt.

If it chooses not to print .. it will be deflation. Too many goods produced.. but no money with anyone to buy them. Because every one's money in the bank has already been spent building factories.

No money with anyone .. same or more goods -> Deflation. That's their current problem.

Their growth has been all investment led and no consumption led.

They end up investing in things, which no one wants to consume.

CPC says: Why do you want rice, if you have high speed train. Stupid?

Have you checked actual stats regarding their debt? Do you know how much of the debt is bad or could go bad?

Their growth is not all investment led right now. You are wrong with that. They have already started shifting to more domestic consumption and it's working.

"They end up investing in things, which no one wants to consume."

The actual stats say otherwise. I'm sorry, but I see a bias in you.

 

[Beast]

We are not in a Hurry, so we move at our own pace. At our convenience and when its best for us. We get to decide when to move, how to move, when not to move. We like it that way.

So far the investments into India has been very good, it appears to get better. So there is no complaints there either.

Industrial growth and services are also growing. So far so good and no complaints.

Now tell me again why is china investing in building a bullet train from Delhi to Chennai ?

To export our products and expand our business. But given Modi business module, it will not work. China will not be duped into dumping money into India without India partnership and putting money into the project too.