China could become the world’s largest economy much sooner than expected

[retaxis]

Is GDP PPP not more useful in a judging a nation's economy?

Nominal is more important if you are comparing country to country and what it can buy with its money e.g. fuel, weapons, food supplies etc.

 

[Han Patriot]

The US could put up with the status quo, but slowly shift to other factory locations, especially in the US, over the next 5-10 years. Slow and steady. How will China counter?

The question is why should we trade with US? We should trade with other countries directly using RMB, cut out the middle man. We should strive to produce for our own consumption first and export the surplus to friendly countries.

 

[tower9]

I actually think China might already be the largest economy in the world in real terms.

It already is and has been for a while. Much of the US gdp is pure fluff, derivatives, services, etc.

 

[K_Bin_W]

China is a larger economy than the US in terms of actual output.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

pure fluff

Indeed. In tangible productive capacity China already is numero uno. The problem is the 'fluff' you mention raises US numbers. Even lot of this is value given by rest of the world because of USA brand.

If China becomes World's no# 1 economy how would it help Pakistan? I mean just speaking diplomatically and other areas?

It would establish Chinese way of doing things are the best. So Pakistan can then just copy China. Essentially clone CCP on Pakistan. From Islamic Republic of Pakistan to Peoples Republic of Pakistan - PRP.

 

[F-6 enthusiast]

The problem is the 'fluff' you mention raises US numbers. Even lot of this is value given by rest of the world because of USA brand.

soft power also matters , no other country comes close to US when it comes to soft power. The American Cultural Hegemony.
We're all living in America

 

[Abid123]

Nominal is more important if you are comparing country to country and what it can buy with its money e.g. fuel, weapons, food supplies etc.

Are you sure my friend? Global Firepower uses GDP PPP. Not that Global firepower is the best source.

 

[FuturePAF]

The question is why should we trade with US? We should trade with other countries directly using RMB, cut out the middle man. We should strive to produce for our own consumption first and export the surplus to friendly countries.

Chinese consumption is enabled by how much workers can earn from the companies that export to large markets. Long term, the larger the china’s internal consumption/market is, the more resilient it will be to foreign disruption, much the same way the US market became between the 1870s and 1920s.

Once China is self suffices in key industries like Aerospace, it won’t be vulnerable to the kind of cutoffs Russia is facing now.

 

[Leishangthem]

soft power also matters , no other country comes close to US when it comes to soft power. The American Cultural Hegemony.
We're all living in America

yeah.but america has higher appeal to old gen and mostly 3rd world that can only see some Hollywood in tv. I doubt the America can even compete with 50 m sized Korea in appeal among Genz. America has this English as medium of communication and infiltrated in all society with channels such as MTV , feeding US pop culture. In the internet era where TV gets more and more competition from online networks, things are about to change.
The main advantage the US holds is , it controls the medium for content and information, US manages that, which curtails the soft-power of any other nation.
US softpower is all-encompassing and rides headwind from WW2 & British colonial legacy,but it's the most widespread since US is able to superimpose it using their reach and affinity.

 

[Han Patriot]

Chinese consumption is enabled by how much workers can earn from the companies that export to large markets. Long term, the larger the china’s internal consumption/market is, the more resilient it will be to foreign disruption, much the same way the US market became between the 1870s and 1920s.

Once China is self suffices in key industries like Aerospace, it won’t be vulnerable to the kind of cutoffs Russia is facing now.

Currently yes exports is a huge gdp contributer but China is trying to switch to internal consumption. Then trade with resource countries. So example we make electronics for both our own people and for Russia, in return Russia gives us resources. That's how trade should work, the US model is I print money and buy your stuff, you use the surplus to buy stuff from other countries, they are essentially parasites.

 

[FuturePAF]

yeah.but america has higher appeal to old gen and mostly 3rd world that can only see some Hollywood in tv. I doubt the America can even compete with 50 m sized Korea in appeal among Genz. America has this English as medium of communication and infiltrated in all society with channels such as MTV , feeding US pop culture. In the internet era where TV gets more and more competition from online networks, things are about to change.
The main advantage the US holds is , it controls the medium for content and information, US manages that, which curtails the soft-power of any other nation.
US softpower is all-encompassing and rides headwind from WW2 & British colonial legacy,but it's not the most widespread since US is able to superimpose it using their reach and affinity.

The US produces “platforms” most people use. Facebook has nearly 3 billion users. The English language is another “platform” that people around the world utilize to make their lives easier when they interact with other people. When someone can outcompete these platforms then they will be able to displace the US, but until then, US soft power will dominate, whether people acknowledge it or not, whether people like it or not.

The US got lucky taking over from the British, with a common language. The Soviets tried to compete by spreading their culture but they had limit success. The French still have a de facto empire so their include persists, and Spain can leverage its influence amongst Spanish speaking countries around the world.

China can best compete by supporting/emanating her partner nations to maximize the use of their own languages and break from these European origin languages and platforms. For example, VK is a Russian social network that is very popular in the Russian speaking world, and enables cross communication across many languages used in Russia and neighboring nations. The concept of a self contained domestic internet with all the apps tailored for the local market is china’s strong point, which Russia wants to replicate. We should observe how Russia transitions to more local or Chinese services as it has been cutoff from western services.

Currently yes exports is a huge gdp contributer but China is trying to switch to internal consumption. Then trade with resource countries. So example we make electronics for both our own people and for Russia, in return Russia gives us resources. That's how trade should work, the US model is I print money and buy your stuff, you use the surplus to buy stuff from other countries, they are essentially parasites.

The US also dominates key technologies and key resources. For example, metals are still primarily traded in the London metal exchange. If China displaces these western markets and becomes the number one trading market in key commodities, it will have a higher likelihood of gaining reserve currency status, at least on par with the Euro, and possibly eventually with the Dollar.

 

[beijingwalker]

The US could put up with the status quo, but slowly shift to other factory locations, especially in the US, over the next 5-10 years. Slow and steady. How will China counter?

Chinese and other emerging markets will be way more important than US, besides, US doesn't have many factories to shift to start with.

 

[FuturePAF]

Chinese and other emerging markets will be way more important than US, besides, US doesn't have many factories to shift to start with.

The US wants to lure MNCs to shift their factories back to the US, as labor differences decrease between East Asia and the US, and as the US has access to cheaper local commodities. If China can outcompete the US in cheaper inputs (commodities and labor and shipping) I doubt MNCs will make the shift. Now it seems a race for commodity supplies; I say this on the day nickel prices tripled if I’m not mistaken.

 

[tower9]

The US produces “platforms” most people use. Facebook has nearly 3 billion users. The English language is another “platform” that people around the world utilize to make their lives easier when they interact with other people. When someone can outcompete these platforms then they will be able to displace the US, but until then, US soft power will dominate, whether people acknowledge it or not, whether people like it or not.

The US got lucky taking over from the British, with a common language. The Soviets tried to compete by spreading their culture but they had limit success. The French still have a de facto empire so their include persists, and Spain can leverage its influence amongst Spanish speaking countries around the world.

China can best compete by supporting/emanating her partner nations to maximize the use of their own languages and break from these European origin languages and platforms. For example, VK is a Russian social network that is very popular in the Russian speaking world, and enables cross communication across many languages used in Russia and neighboring nations. The concept of a self contained domestic internet with all the apps tailored for the local market is china’s strong point, which Russia wants to replicate. We should observe how Russia transitions to more local or Chinese services as it has been cutoff from western services.


The US also dominates key technologies and key resources. For example, metals are still primarily traded in the London metal exchange. If China displaces these western markets and becomes the number one trading market in key commodities, it will have a higher likelihood of gaining reserve currency status, at least on par with the Euro, and possibly eventually with the Dollar.

That’s the primary reason why China is pushing 5G and 6G so much, because it wants to be a first mover in developing the key platforms for that technology.

 

[MH.Yang]

Indeed. In tangible productive capacity China already is numero uno. The problem is the 'fluff' you mention raises US numbers. Even lot of this is value given by rest of the world because of USA brand.


It would establish Chinese way of doing things are the best. So Pakistan can then just copy China. Essentially clone CCP on Pakistan. From Islamic Republic of Pakistan to Peoples Republic of Pakistan - PRP.

If China, like USA, adds "virtual rent" to GDP, China has surpassed USA.



The Chinese model is more likely to be a poison to Pakistan. China is a homogeneous country with a centralization historical tradition and culture. Pakistan is not a homogeneous country. If it adopts the Chinese model, it is likely to be strongly resisted by local forces.