China backing out on power project

[Irfan Baloch]

Nawaz business profits increased 150%, while national institutions are doomed, pmln has failed to initiate a single project, gave IPPs circular debt money without audit.. Im looking to a total collapse of the system this summer..

well you are wrong here

they did destroy the entire road from Pindi to Islamabad in the name of Metro service (although they left it there)

 

[solo]

How to build a power plant

 

[WishLivePak]

It's pretty much more or less same in the past 3-4 years. However, with new projects coming online in the next 4 years (coal, Chashma Nuclear, hydro, solar, wind) expect a marginal increase. Our actual installed capacity is already more than 20,000 MW, however it barely produces that much due to fuel shortage, water shortage, maintenance etc.

Installed capacity has been higher than that for quite a long time. I guess plants are just replaced or whatever

 

[Daneshmand]

Agree with the first part of your statement. Don't agree with the second part. Iran has more than enough cheap fuel to generate electricity. The country is overflowing with fuel. Also mentioning Iran was irrelevant.

Maybe we should stop begging and do something on our own. Why does Pakistan think we are entitled to aid? This sense of entitlement will ruin us.

You have comprehension issues. Beside combined cycle thermal power plants, Iran also builds wind power plants and hydroelectric dams which do not need any fuel for their operation. The question is why Pakistan does not build a company that can manufacture eg. Wind power plants instead of begging foreign nations. Iran actually has two companies manufacturing large wind turbines, MAPNA and SabaNiroo. It is not that difficult:

 

[Khalidr]

You have comprehension issues. Beside combined cycle thermal power plants, Iran also builds wind power plants and hydroelectric dams which do not need any fuel for their operation. The question is why Pakistan does not build a company that can manufacture eg. Wind power plants instead of begging foreign nations. Iran actually has two companies manufacturing large wind turbines, MAPNA and SabaNiroo. It is not that difficult:

we are used to begging, so as a nation we prefer to beg rather than do some thing innovative.. we have talent we have resources but we are more expert in begging, look at Pakistan 67 years old history you will find the answer.

It's pretty much more or less same in the past 3-4 years. However, with new projects coming online in the next 4 years (coal, Chashma Nuclear, hydro, solar, wind) expect a marginal increase. Our actual installed capacity is already more than 20,000 MW, however it barely produces that much due to fuel shortage, water shortage, maintenance etc

then why goverment is not concentrating on current installed operational plants, as u said if it requires maintenance, fuel and water, why not do some work on these issues and get these power plants on track. why investing heavy funds in new projects.

 

[I FLY HIGH]

Well yea, I don't think anybody thinks China is a saint or even close.

Pakistan need to have something in it for China, because we don't come empty handed, do we. We invest, we share tech and we sell weapons and tech that some may not be comfortable parting.

However, we cannot leave empty handed, for one, this rivalry with India isn't actually that important right now, as they are not at the stage where we need to use too much effort into anything.

Second, even if we are authoritarian, we can't just tell companies to go in for a loss, and hope for the best, even for us.

Lastly, do you really want Pakistan to be known as the place charity is being granted? 5 bucks is charity, in the international arena that maybe a few billion, but in terms of real money, especially that of a nation of Pakistan's size, that's like giving 5 bucks to a family of 10.



One word, Japan. Before China's rise or anything, Japan was already a major world player, Pakistan can certainly be somebody without India, whether they should want to is another story.

There are big markets, and great partners all around the world. You don't need to be tied down to anyone. But also, you shouldn't discount anyone, as that's just not smart.



Look at the world and China, America, at this point, hates our guts, but they can do no more than a half baked attempt at TPP, which is about as effective as a paper cut.

It's much better to be allies for practical than sentimental reasons.

you are absolutely right , in the world there is no sentimental friend , Pak need to learn this sooner or later , best friend of an individual country is he himself . We need to be indigenous and i am sure we can overcome those obstacles like power shortages etc .

 

[Donatello]

we are used to begging, so as a nation we prefer to beg rather than do some thing innovative.. we have talent we have resources but we are more expert in begging, look at Pakistan 67 years old history you will find the answer.



then why goverment is not concentrating on current installed operational plants, as u said if it requires maintenance, fuel and water, why not do some work on these issues and get these power plants on track. why investing heavy funds in new projects.

Because buying fuel is expensive.........Pakistan's power woes are not due to lack of capacity but due to mismanagement at every level, from Generation to Distribution to Theft.

 

[WishLivePak]

Because buying fuel is expensive.........Pakistan's power woes are not due to lack of capacity but due to mismanagement at every level, from Generation to Distribution to Theft.

but his point is, instead of using money to make new projects, why not fix our current infrastructure?

Like, spending billions on new projects when that can be used to pay for debt and fix mismanagement etc. Even if we produce more electricity, there will still be the problems and even in greater amount.

If you've a house and it has problems (which will be in new house too), it's better to fix it than to make a new house.

 

[Leader]

well you are wrong here

they did destroy the entire road from Pindi to Islamabad in the name of Metro service (although they left it there)

oh that they are good at, getting commissions and kickbacks

System won't collapse. They'll take in more loans.

They rather dry out Pakistan through 2018 rather than all at once. You can make more money slowly in 5 years instead of making it in one year.

Look at Islamabad airport, 10+ years its going to take to build it.


Do you know what is our current production (if we're able to run everything at capacity).

I want to know if gov't has added extra MW or it is still the same amount as before and only plants are being replaced etc.

You mean Nawaz to give slow death to nation.

 

[xyxmt]

You have comprehension issues. Beside combined cycle thermal power plants, Iran also builds wind power plants and hydroelectric dams which do not need any fuel for their operation. The question is why Pakistan does not build a company that can manufacture eg. Wind power plants instead of begging foreign nations. Iran actually has two companies manufacturing large wind turbines, MAPNA and SabaNiroo. It is not that difficult:

I guess your official dont care much about commissions

 

[Daneshmand]

we are used to begging, so as a nation we prefer to beg rather than do some thing innovative.. we have talent we have resources but we are more expert in begging, look at Pakistan 67 years old history you will find the answer.
.

Well, then it is time to change this habit. It is not working anymore. It used to be an effective habit during cold war, but not anymore.

I guess your official dont care much about commissions

In that case, if commission culture can not be eradicated, the logical solution would be to legalize it and make it transparent. This way, local companies can survive and prosper.

It's pretty much more or less same in the past 3-4 years. However, with new projects coming online in the next 4 years (coal, Chashma Nuclear, hydro, solar, wind) expect a marginal increase. Our actual installed capacity is already more than 20,000 MW, however it barely produces that much due to fuel shortage, water shortage, maintenance etc.

That is a very small installed capacity for a population of near to 190 million people. Iran has an installed capacity of around 75,000 MW for a population of near to 80 million. Peak consumption reaches 50,000 MW with only Tehran consuming over 9,000 MW during peak times. With population of Pakistan stabilizing at 360 million people around year 2050, you will need to add over the next three decades, at a minimum couple of hundred thousands of MW of installed capacity in order to sustain an industrialized life style.

 

[haviZsultan]

Wind, hydro and solar energy should be our focus I believe.This post by Daneshmand proves all is not well. We need to invest heavily in energy related fields:

Well, then it is time to change this habit. It is not working anymore. It used to be an effective habit during cold war, but not anymore.



In that case, if commission culture can not be eradicated, the logical solution would be to legalize it and make it transparent. This way, local companies can survive and prosper.



That is a very small installed capacity for a population of near to 190 million people. Iran has an installed capacity of around 75,000 MW for a population of near to 80 million. Peak consumption reaches 50,000 MW with only Tehran consuming over 9,000 MW during peak times. With population of Pakistan stabilizing at 360 million people around year 2050, you will need to add over the next three decades, at a minimum couple of hundred thousands of MW of installed capacity in order to sustain an industrialized life style.

Thanks for your knowledgeable posts Daneshmand.

 

[Daneshmand]

Wind, hydro and solar energy should be our focus I believe.This post by Daneshmand proves all is not well. We need to invest heavily in energy related fields:


Thanks for your knowledgeable posts Daneshmand.

You are welcome. I would advise against going for solar power plants, which are going to be a waste of money, specially for a poor country like Pakistan. Wind and hydro are much better but they can not provide all the power that you will need, specially if you want to make a modern and industrialized Pakistan. You will have to augment these with nuclear and gas power plants (coal is being phased out worldwide in favor of these). Gas you can import from various sources, and for nuclear you will have to push for a deal similar to India with a good foreign minister who can wage a diplomatic offensive as India did. Here is a cost analysis of electric generation by different sources:

 

[WishLivePak]

It's common sense. Design documentation does not require massive labor, nor a large material cost. The designing process is simply to see if a certain design is viable, so a proof of concept is the most that occurs, thus the low cost. Logical thinking.


It is not a loss, as Pakistan didn't have it in the first place. This is not what the term "loss" means.


It hasn't withdrawn, how many times do I have to tell you this. You even quoted the damn source that you posted that proved it was not withdrawing. Downsizing does not equate to withdrawing. Why is this concept so hard for you to understand?


What, pray tell, did you mean? What was it in reply to? I'm not bringing anything new to this discussion, don't make shit up because you have no way to counter my argument.


A few does not equate to a lot. Out of the 24 people that agreed with your original post, I count 19 of them as Indians, with 2 people who's background I do not know, and at least 3 people who're Pakistani. The rest of your posts, I've skimmed over as many as I could find, and it's the same people (mainly Indians) who agreed with your original post, agreeing with your other ones. You're clearly a self-loathing Pakistani, that much is clear.

Don't lie to me, when the evidence is there for the world to see.

1) Common sense tells that design is quite expensive for mega projects. Also time is money. Just because you spend $2 on new design that takes more years to mature, don't ignore the time lost.

2) I'm speaking in economics terms. It is a loss. Our production isn't being given full resource. So we cannot produce enough output that we could otherwise. In accounting or average joe's person opinion, this isn't a loss. But in economics, this loss is massive and carries not only monetary losses, but creates emotional problems too (joblessness, not enough hours etc)

3) If you learn to read, you'll see that I wrote "Part of the project."

4) If the original quote, you were saying that it isn't financially viable for Pakistan to pursue the project. I quoted the news article which said it wasn't financially viable for China to pursue the project in all. Notice the difference. China was worried about finances, not Pakistan. Pakistan had agreed to please China for their demands. Then you cut my quote into 2 pieces to show your views.

Here is the article "The committee was told that memorandums of understanding were also signed with China under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Project for 10 Gadani Power Projects, but later Beijing scaled down its priority over financial and technical apprehensions. For example, the Chinese had concerns over payment issues against electricity sales after the completion of projects and suggested AC, instead of DC, circuit transmission line."

And here is what you said "It is neither financially viable for Pakistan, nor technically viable for China, which is why they've reduced the plants to 4."

So again, it was not financially viable for China and hence they backed out. Even though Pakistan was ready to give guarantees and demands.

So it isn't almost exclusively Indians. Also did you manage to read other people posts? Pakistanis were agreeing with me when quoting me. Rating is not the way to go around and see who agrees with the post. I don't give ratings to people and I can still agree with them. As you will read, many Pakistanis agree here that China is looking out for self interest.

You are welcome. I would advise against going for solar power plants, which are going to be a waste of money, specially for a poor country like Pakistan. Wind and hydro are much better but they can not provide all the power that you will need, specially if you want to make a modern and industrialized Pakistan. You will have to augment these with nuclear and gas power plants (coal is being phased out worldwide in favor of these). Gas you can import from various sources, and for nuclear you will have to push for a deal similar to India with a good foreign minister who can wage a diplomatic offensive as India did. Here is a cost analysis of electric generation by different sources:

@That Guy take a look at picture. solar costs a lot of money and hence it's better Pakistan goes for gas powdered plants. We should try and be environmental as much as possible, but it doesn't mean we start to eat grass in order to get solar power. At the same time, it doesn't mean that we use coal powered plants just because they cost a little less.

 

[Daneshmand]

1) Common sense tells that design is quite expensive for mega projects. Also time is money. Just because you spend $2 on new design that takes more years to mature, don't ignore the time lost.

2) I'm speaking in economics terms. It is a loss. Our production isn't being given full resource. So we cannot produce enough output that we could otherwise. In accounting or average joe's person opinion, this isn't a loss. But in economics, this loss is massive and carries not only monetary losses, but creates emotional problems too (joblessness, not enough hours etc)

3) If you learn to read, you'll see that I wrote "Part of the project."

4) If the original quote, you were saying that it isn't financially viable for Pakistan to pursue the project. I quoted the news article which said it wasn't financially viable for China to pursue the project in all. Notice the difference. China was worried about finances, not Pakistan. Pakistan had agreed to please China for their demands. Then you cut my quote into 2 pieces to show your views.

Here is the article "The committee was told that memorandums of understanding were also signed with China under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Project for 10 Gadani Power Projects, but later Beijing scaled down its priority over financial and technical apprehensions. For example, the Chinese had concerns over payment issues against electricity sales after the completion of projects and suggested AC, instead of DC, circuit transmission line."

And here is what you said "It is neither financially viable for Pakistan, nor technically viable for China, which is why they've reduced the plants to 4."

So again, it was not financially viable for China and hence they backed out. Even though Pakistan was ready to give guarantees and demands.

So it isn't almost exclusively Indians. Also did you manage to read other people posts? Pakistanis were agreeing with me when quoting me. Rating is not the way to go around and see who agrees with the post. I don't give ratings to people and I can still agree with them. As you will read, many Pakistanis agree here that China is looking out for self interest.


@That Guy take a look at picture. solar costs a lot of money and hence it's better Pakistan goes for gas powdered plants. We should try and be environmental as much as possible, but it doesn't mean we start to eat grass in order to get solar power. At the same time, it doesn't mean that we use coal powered plants just because they cost a little less.

Here is another one for 2016 (Actually combined cycle gas plants are the cheapest):