China: After The Credit Crisis Comes The Economic Crisis

[Arya Desa]

When one falls another takes its place. Face it, we are all susceptible to the whim of the West. As they say, its white man's world. If we work together maybe it will be Asia's world again.

 

[Kloitra]

They have a knock-on effect to the rest of the economy, especially oil.

Oil I accept, but others aren't so much. Besides, it is the policies of the govt which have more to do with shrinking exports than other factors. One example, recently (probably May) India's export fell more than 1.5% just due to some blockade on jewellery export. It took some time for govt to realize the problem and rectify it. Which is my original point, the supply chain is so small compared to other factors (ok, oil) that they have minimal impact on exports. Oil is exception, but it is a necessary evil, no alternative.

Sorry for not being so coherent, but I am sure you can understand what I mean.

 

[JayAtl]

@JayAtl
In your opinion, what will happen to other economies if Chinese economy starts to slow down? It is the second biggest economy and currently a big market to many western companies.

Markets have already taken into account the forgery of the stats from China. So practically nothing worth but a slight blip for few days. Everyone is investing in the US and continues to do so.

just from reports today( " producer prices") , it again showed that their factories are in a "deflation" period.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Oil I accept, but others aren't so much. Besides, it is the policies of the govt which have more to do with shrinking exports than other factors. One example, recently (probably May) India's export fell more than 1.5% just due to some blockade on jewellery export. It took some time for govt to realize the problem and rectify it. Which is my original point, the supply chain is so small compared to other factors (ok, oil) that they have minimal impact on exports. Oil is exception, but it is a necessary evil, no alternative.

Sorry for not being so coherent, but I am sure you can understand what I mean.

OK you're saying that it's Government policy which is causing India's exports to shrink, I agree.

At a time when the Rupee is falling, there should be a big incentive to exporters to start exporting more, but due to the policies of the Govt that has not happened.

 

[Silverblaze]

@JayAtl
In your opinion, what will happen to other economies if Chinese economy starts to slow down? It is the second biggest economy and currently a big market to many western companies.

Good point. But China still has enough economic muscle to swallow the crisis if they cannot avert it.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Good point. But China still has enough economic muscle to swallow the crisis if they cannot avert it.

Yep, we have $3.2 trillion in currency reserves.

The ultimate safety net.

In the worst case scenario, where we for some reason lose all export revenue, and all foreign debts are called in simultaneously, we can pay it all off easily and have plenty left to spare.

 

[bandit]

Dollar reserves are no safety net, case in point- US recession of 2008.

Not at this scale-

Outflows from Chinese equity funds in early June were the highest since early 2008. Total credit in China’s financial system has reached epic proportions. The world has never seen such debt acceleration. It has increased eight-fold the past 10 years and is now 220% of GDP.

According to the government, Chinese firms will have to pay $1 trillion in interest this year. Therefore, corporate cash flow is primarily used for debt service, not for growth. When economic growth turns to contraction, the bankruptcy avalanche starts. And that is happening now. The largest China shipyard is already in severe financial trouble. It can’t borrow money, so the latest word is that it will sell bonds. Who will buy them?

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...isis-comes-economic-crisis.html#ixzz2bRcGSayn

I wasn't a believer in China collapse theory, but its gaining a lot of traction now.

Rule of thumb, if investors run somethings not right. Everybody loves his money more than nationalism.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I wasn't a believer in China collapse theory, but its gaining a lot of traction now.

Rule of thumb, if investors run somethings not right.

That's true. So you should ask why everyone is abandoning the Rupee, while China is getting record levels of FDI.

China June FDI rises at fastest pace in more than two years - Reuters

Even Indians themselves don't trust the Rupee, and would rather have Gold.

 

[danger007]

wow chinese members attacking the Indian member because he posted a thread against chinese economy which is published in forbes? nice dudes... carry on....

 

[bandit]

That's true. So you should ask why everyone is abandoning the Rupee, while China is getting record levels of FDI.

China June FDI rises at fastest pace in more than two years - Reuters

Yeah everyone is abandoning the rupee ,that is the perfect understanding of what I said.


And I don't need to ask, I know it and believe it will hit 65-70 within a year before a rebound. No big ****.

Meanwhile from your link --

Shen Danyang, commerce ministry spokesman, said on Wednesday that FDI inflows reflect a gradual rebound in the first half of this year even though a single month's figure would not signal a recovery in foreign investment.

Even Indians themselves don't trust the Rupee, and would rather have Gold.

As I said, everybody love his money more.

wow chinese members attacking the Indian member because he posted a thread against chinese economy which is published in forbes? nice dudes... carry on....

I have yet to meet a Chinese member who would not resort to name calling and pull fake and misleading links to prove his point.

Not one.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Hey @bandit, here is a question.

Why is it that all the Global credit ratings agencies are downgrading India to junk status? S&P, Moodys, etc.

Why are the global investors abandoning India and causing the Rupee to crash?

Surely it should be the other way around right? They should be downgrading China instead, and the investors should be leaving China.

Why aren't they doing that? Why is Chinese FDI soaring to record levels, and why has the Chinese Yuan been appreciating pretty much non-stop the whole past decade? Why are the Global credit ratings agencies rating us so far above India?

 

[bandit]

Hey @bandit, here is a question.

Why is it that all the Global credit ratings agencies are downgrading India to junk status? S&P, Moodys, etc.

Here again, Chinese members resort to lies.

S&P India Rating-

India (Republic of) (Unsolicited Ratings) BBB-

S&P Junk Status definition- BB+ or lower. LIES.

Moody's-
*India Baa3 Stable

Moody's Junk status definition - Ba1 or lower. LIES

Why are the global investors abandoning India and causing the Rupee to crash?

Surely it should be the other way around right? They should be downgrading China instead, and the investors should be leaving China.

Why aren't they doing that? Why is Chinese FDI soaring to record levels, and why has the Chinese Yuan been appreciating pretty much non-stop the whole past decade? Why are the Global credit ratings agencies rating us so far above India?

Here- Google.

You want some education, earn it.

Why is Chinese FDI soaring to record levels

Lies Again.

Your Link - China June FDI rises at fastest pace in more than two years

The record is for last two years.

They should be downgrading China instead, and the investors should be leaving China.

Why aren't they doing that

Lies Continue,

they are doing that-

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100628908

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/16/us-china-moodys-ratings-idUSBRE93F05I20130416

You Sir, are a proven Liar.

 

[JayAtl]

^^^
Fitch Downgrades China's Currency Credit Rating

Goldman Joins Bandwagon, Downgrades China http://www.cnbc.com/id/100837344

Moody's lowers China outlook after Fitch downgradehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/16/us-china-moodys-ratings-idUSBRE93F05I20130416

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

^^^
Fitch Downgrades China's Currency Credit Rating

Did you even read the article? It said "local currency credit rating".

And even that is still AA-.

Whereas India is only one step away from junk status:

Standard & Poor's warns India of a downgrade to junk category - The Times of India

Pranab seeks calm after S&P downgrade - Hindustan Times

 

[dbc]

Haven't you seen any other posts by JayAtl (or his alter-ego "Korean") before?

He is our resident Indian troll who posts 5-6 anti-China threads in one go, and then disappears, usually banned.

I'm sick of your troll fatwas. please stick to the thread topic and tell us all why Forbes is wrong.
Thank you.