Spy agencies undercut Afghan review
Simon Mann HERALD CORRESPONDENT
December 16, 2010
WASHINGTON: The US is on track to start withdrawing its military from Afghanistan by the middle of next year and complete a handover to Afghan security forces in 2014, according to a review of the war to be released today.
The White House press secretary, Robert Gibbs, suggested the review would contain few surprises. Instead, he hinted at an upbeat prognosis despite an increase in casualties since the President, Barack Obama, authorised a surge in troop numbers similar to that used to hasten the end of the Iraq war.
"There has been some important progress in halting the momentum of the Taliban in Afghanistan," Mr Gibbs said.
Advertisement: Story continues below The pace of the withdrawal, however, remains imprecise and will be determined largely by commanders in Afghanistan. The report is expected to acknowledge that Pakistan remains a sanctuary for militants, continuing to compromise efforts at stabilising the country.
While the military assessment was relatively upbeat, two new classified intelligence reports offer a more negative assessment and say there is a limited chance of success unless Pakistan hunts down insurgents operating from havens on its Afghan border.
The reports, one on Afghanistan and one on Pakistan, say that although there have been gains for NATO in the war, the unwillingness of Pakistan to shut down militant sanctuaries in its lawless tribal region remains a serious obstacle. US military commanders say insurgents freely cross from Pakistan into Afghanistan to plant bombs, fight US forces and then return to Pakistan for rest and resupply.
The findings in the reports, called National Intelligence Estimates, represent the consensus view of America's 16 intelligence agencies, as opposed to the military, and were provided last week to some members of the Senate and House intelligence committees.
Mr Obama, who is expected to comment publicly on the White House review's findings, met with his 20-member national security team for two hours on Tuesday, authorising minor amendments to the document.
The death this week of Richard Holbrooke, the US special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, cast a pall over the meeting, during which Mr Obama and the Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, paid tribute to the long-serving diplomatic trouble-shooter. An empty chair at the talks signified his absence. The talks included the Defence Secretary, Robert Gates, and the commander of NATO and US forces in Afghanistan, General David Petraeus, via video link.
Mr Gibbs said the report did not call for any immediate change to US and NATO numbers in Afghanistan. A year ago, the Obama administration announced the deployment of an additional 30,000 personnel over the course of 2010, signifying an intensified assault against Taliban forces.
The strategy led to an immediate rise in casualties, with almost 700 coalition deaths this year, the highest annual toll of the nine-year conflict, as attacks against US forces almost doubled. However, after a peak of 103 deaths in June, monthly coalition fatalities have steadily declined to below 60, including 23 so far this month.
with agencies
