Charge d’ Affairs of Pakistan, Ambassador Ubaid Nizamani targeted by assassination attempt in Kabul - Dec 2022

[FuturePAF]

Just a normal day in Kabul

Actually, if we look at the pattern (of targeted assassinations of Afghan commanders loyal to the Talibs, and low this), it seems like a coordinated campaign to sow chaos amongst the Afghan leaders and their relations with the outside world. There is either an internal power struggle inside the Talibs organization or well organized assassins operating, Doing hit and run raids. If you remember that one video of a Talibs commander killed while riding his motorcycle by another motorcyclist with a hand gun and recorded by a car following behind.

If any of the perpetrators are caught, more will probably be found out.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598672210616524800

If this is SS’ actual physical response to this incident, his body language doesn’t convey anger but looks like he’s pleading with the Afghans to behave or guard the area around the embassy better.

 

[TheSolution]

Yeah and the day an Afghan republic gets slightly good economically and militarily, it’s the end of Pakistan. A centralized and internationally recognized afghan government might be easier to negotiate with but have fun dealing with them while you have Indians on the east and a potentially strong internationally recognized Afghanistan on the west and an opportunist snake Iran also on the west.
Pakistan can barely manage to keep a credible deterrent against Indians just image the trio (Afghanistan, Iran and india) all form a proper military alliance against us with strong armed forces. Even ghani regime conventionally was a threat to Pakistan because had they not been stuck in civil war, they had a 300k strong army with American backing and fairly decent equipment to give us a hard time on the western front.
And didn’t Afghanistan already under strong centralized republics try invading us 3 times and fund militancy in our areas.
With Taliban it’s ttp but they’re both rag tag militias which majority of the world is against.
With an Afghan republic it’s a professional army with strong alliances worldwide + a proxy group to help them.
We can even negotiate with Taliban if we play our cards right. Many TB ministers including their foreign minister has business in Pakistan and family living in Pakistan. You can’t have more leverage than this. Literally the TB higher ups survive off us. The TB being in the place they are today was cuz of us. Now with the iskp vs Taliban fight the amount of potential leverage we have in Afghanistan is unimaginable (look at kunar Taliban for example). Even ttp has many fault lines which can easily be exploited if our state wants. Just look at how they were under fazlullah’s time.
This is just using TB weaknesses as leverage. I haven’t even mentioned trade or other areas where we have unimaginable leverage.
The issue is Pakistan is full of incompetents in leadership. Civilian government has worse foreign policy than Taliban. Civilian government has ruined our relations always and they don’t even care about border areas. Even pti has horrible foreign policy. Our army loves playing with our country for their personal gains. We have no one truly looking out for Pakistani interests. The few that do are too few to make a difference and are sidelined. We are the only ones to blame. Even this TB project it couldn’t reaped many benefits had we played our cards right and actually put effort into our plan. Gen Hamid Gul was a great visionary person but unfortunately many don’t have the ability to understand him.

Like it or not, Taliban are our best bet in Afghanistan.
With the right strategy an Afghanistan with Taliban is an Afghanistan that’s our vassal.

I disagree with your final statement, we are betting on the strongest horse but it's not the right horse

If you truly want to secure the Western border - you should try to put a Tajik/Hazara government in power that won't have any real personal incentive to be stubborn about the Durrand line.

But it's very difficult because it seems the Pashtuns are very dominant in Afghanistan

Some methods could be by riling up historical grudges, emphasising on persecution based on ethnicity, and promising them hegemony. In return of course you support them and they accept the border demand. We could utilise any Hazaras/Tajiks already inside Pakistan, build networks in Afghans, conquer it part by part. They can also implement Sharia law to appease the Islamists. Arm them to tackle insurgency, and their government might be more open to international support.

But this will probably require a lot of resources we don't have, and probably won't be possible as America did just fail.

 

[R Wing]

Was the guard not wearing body armour?

99% he wasn't.

 

[Commoner]

Time for permanent closure of our embassy in Afg.

This appears to be the objective of attack.

Time to nuke those fuckers!!!

Nukes are not a joke. These are petty issues.
Secondly, there is no clarity who did it.

 

[Goritoes]

Honestly I wish we had given up KPK and kept/save the Bangladesh, Pakistan would've been much prosper and thousands of Pakistani would still be alive.

 

[Ghessan]

need of the hour is sending back Afghans refugees as i call it head of the snake. i just don't understand what strategic interests we have in keeping them.

it is obvious who is hurdle. aren't we enough with all these games being played over the years?

any matter you pick, people of Pakistan has no say in it but Estb.

 

[Menace2Society]

Nukes are not a joke. These are petty issues.
Secondly, there is no clarity who did it.

20 year TTP terrorism, Losing 70k+ lives, $100 billion loss, reputation loss, loss of trust between partners who were there for Pakistan since its birth, durand line not considered as hard border, these are petty issues???

Just like Zarb e Azb which should have been done in 2005, there will eventually be a final solution. First deport their refugees and comb through KPK and FATA for Afghans.

 

[khansaheeb]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598677881357467654

Pakistan should bring out all its citizens and close the Afghan border under the Taliban bring the enemies of peace and paid foreign agents under control.

 

[Commoner]

20 year TTP terrorism, Losing 70k+ lives, $100 billion loss, reputation loss, loss of trust between partners who were there for Pakistan since its birth, durand line not considered as hard border, these are petty issues???

Just like Zarb e Azb which should have been done in 2005, there will eventually be a final solution. First deport their refugees and comb through KPK and FATA for Afghans.

Sir, this is the modified version of peace after the advent of nuclear weapons. It could be classified as a cold war. A-bomb can`t be used on these pretexts unless they seriously pose a threat to sovereignty as in Cold Start Doctrine.

 

[TheSolution]

Honestly I wish we had given up KPK and kept/save the Bangladesh, Pakistan would've been much prosper and thousands of Pakistani would still be alive.

I don't know how they managed to f*ck up Bangladesh so bad, even today their population is not hostile and quite friendly, it was just purely horrible policy. We could've retained it very easily with minimal effort.

 

[Goritoes]

I don't know how they managed to f*ck up Bangladesh so bad, even today their population is not hostile and quite friendly, it was just purely horrible policy. We could've retained it very easily with minimal effort.

Racism my friend, even today more than 80% Pakistani's look down upon Bangali's and Biharis, but bitter truth is that just Pashtoons have killed more Pakistanis' than Indian/Americans/Iranians/Aliens/Dajjal combined.

 

[LeGenD]

On the contrary, fundamentally the Afghan Republic, plus India, US and NATO were a major strategic threat

The Taliban and TTP are just a mess

Either way you have deluded, untrustworthy afghans to deal with but the afghani Republic was intent on being a enemy of Pakistan and linking up with India,the fall of the Afghan Republic and running India out of Dodge was a LEGENDARY victory that will never be truly appreciated for what it was


There was ALWAYS going to be fall out, the question was how much fall out and how we would control it

You also have to look out for the Aghwan Republic supporters looking to incite problems with Pakistan

Listen, bro. There is a lot to unpack in this theme. And you will not like some of the details.

The establishment was hedging its bets on Afghan Taliban, right? Why was this intent not conveyed to US openly? Why the establishment granted US access to Afghanistan without presenting (any) terms and conditions including talks about what US will do to protect regional interests of Pakistan in exchange?

Then American ambassador Wendy Chamberlain presented a list of seven demands to the establishment and they were all accepted blindly without documentation and analysis of what Pakistan could realistically do for US.

Afghan Taliban were allowed to regroup and receive medical treatments in Pakistan.

US-backed Afghan government was at war with Afghan Taliban and this was the root cause of Pak-Afghan tensions throughout.

India made inroads into Afghanistan via Iran and took advantage of Pak-Afghan tensions to do its bidding.

US was focused on dismantling Al-Qaeda Network in the region (Primary Target), but also assassinated top leaders of TTP to disrupt its cohesion to make it easier for Pakistan security forces to fight it. US provided cash, numerous weapons systems, and guidance to Pakistan for how to improve security of its nuclear infrastructure as well.

The establishment was lacking in planning for how to negotiate its part in the War On Terror saga.

Pakistani commoners were made to believe in narrative(s) like "aalmi saazish" to keep them distracted on the other hand.

US could see the obvious, settled for an alternative solution (for itself), and bailed.

The outcome?

Afghan Taliban = not pleased = not touching TTP

US = not pleased = not offering much to Pakistan

BLA continues to find space in Afghanistan and launch attacks in Pakistan.

TTP continues to find space in Afghanistan and launch attacks in Pakistan.

Afghanistan = economic crisis

Pakistan = economic crisis

But Khan (handsome) was conveniently blamed for damaging US - Pak relations in the end.

US now see India in much more favorable light.

India can establish contacts with Afghan Taliban as well.

It shows that Pakistan has no system and national coherence to manage its Foreign affairs. The establishment gets to decide what to do and does not believe in Transparency and Civic Engagement to manage issues of national interest.

So much for strategic depth.

 

[TheSolution]

Racism my friend, even today more than 80% Pakistani's look down upon Bangali's and Biharis, but bitter truth is that just Pashtoons have killed more Pakistanis' than Indian/Americans/Iranians/Aliens/Dajjal combined.

True but it's generally due to their culture, I think the next generation raised in diverse areas won't be as problematic as the the initial migrants.

Even during Pakistan's independence not every ethnicity generally was at the same point of development so it will take time for them to catch up.

But what we did to Bangladesh is the biggest blunder in history

 

[hussain0216]

Listen, bro. There is a lot to unpack in this theme. And you will not like some of the details.

The establishment was hedging its bets on Afghan Taliban, right? Why was this intent not conveyed to US openly? Why the establishment granted US access to Afghanistan without presenting (any) terms and conditions including talks about what US will do to protect regional interests of Pakistan in exchange?

Then American ambassador Wendy Chamberlain presented a list of seven demands to the establishment and they were all accepted blindly without documentation and analysis of what Pakistan could realistically do for US.

Afghan Taliban were allowed to regroup and receive medical treatments in Pakistan.

US-backed Afghan government was at war with Afghan Taliban and this was the root cause of Pak-Afghan tensions throughout.

India made inroads into Afghanistan via Iran and took advantage of Pak-Afghan tensions to do its bidding.

US was focused on dismantling Al-Qaeda Network in the region (Primary Target), but also assassinated top leaders of TTP to disrupt its cohesion to make it easier for Pakistan security forces to fight it. US provided cash, numerous weapons systems, and guidance to Pakistan for how to improve security of its nuclear infrastructure as well.

But the establishment was lacking in planning for how to negotiate its part in the War On Terror saga.

Pakistani commoners were made to believe in narrative(s) like "aalmi saazish" to keep them distracted on the other hand.

US came to terms with the obvious eventually, settled for an alternative solution (for itself), and bailed.

The outcome?

Afghan Taliban = not pleased = not touching TTP

US = not pleased = not offering much to Pakistan

BLA continues to find space in Afghanistan and launch attacks in Pakistan.

TTP continues to find space in Afghanistan and launch attacks in Pakistan.

Afghanistan = economic crisis

Pakistan = economic crisis

But Khan (handsome) was conveniently blamed for damaging US - Pak relations in the end.

It shows that Pakistan has no system and national coherence to manage its Foreign affairs. The establishment gets to decide what to do and does not believe in Transparency and Civic Engagement to manage issues of national interest.

Much of what you say is true and has merit


But this leads back to the start of the War on Terror

During the early years when the Taliban fell, Pakistan was completely on board, with not much wiggle room


All we essentially wanted was a friendly regime in Afghanistan that understood and respected Pakistani strategic Interests


And this is where it all fell apart



The Afghans being afghans would not respect Pakistani sovereignty and the durrand line issue rose it's head again

The afghani made numerous and regular statements against us

We had no issues with Afghanistans relations with any state, Including India, but we had made clear that India was our mortal ENEMY and our strategic and security issues MUST be respected


The afghani went of their ways to try to LEVERAGE India against us to put pressure on us to make concessions elsewhere


We tried to appeal to the USA who was unconcerned for the most part


This situation went on and forced us plan for our own strategic defence





Afghanistan rather then understand that Pakistan was probably it's most important neighbor, it's access to ports etc did everything to try and step on our toes and in the end paid for it with everything






I will repeat, Taliban are scum, but all afghans are the same. You can't trust these Namak haram people for sh*t


But the strategic threat posed to Pakistan by a afghan Republic, India, USA, NATO was unparalleled compared to the Taliban and TTP

The burden of the afghans however we are stuck with because they are next to us and we have so many inside Pakistan and I don't mean refugees, these people are ETHNOCENTRIC JAHILAT and only if they face the destruction of the TTP first and demand Pakistani military action will we be saved from problems and this is the way I'm betting military see's it also



They don't want to deal with TTP and they have the resources to blast them to hell, but the pashtun support structure around them, the people, villages, tribes it's all interconnected.
Collateral damage will be inevitable, that will lead to the usual "Stet bomb innocent Waziristani" crap

 

[EternalMortal]

Listen, bro. There is a lot to unpack in this theme. And you will not like some of the details.

The establishment was hedging its bets on Afghan Taliban, right? Why was this intent not conveyed to US openly? Why the establishment granted US access to Afghanistan without presenting (any) terms and conditions including talks about what US will do to protect regional interests of Pakistan in exchange?

Then American ambassador Wendy Chamberlain presented a list of seven demands to the establishment and they were all accepted blindly without documentation and analysis of what Pakistan could realistically do for US.

Afghan Taliban were allowed to regroup and receive medical treatments in Pakistan.

US-backed Afghan government was at war with Afghan Taliban and this was the root cause of Pak-Afghan tensions throughout.

India made inroads into Afghanistan via Iran and took advantage of Pak-Afghan tensions to do its bidding.

US was focused on dismantling Al-Qaeda Network in the region (Primary Target), but also assassinated top leaders of TTP to disrupt its cohesion to make it easier for Pakistan security forces to fight it. US provided cash, numerous weapons systems, and guidance to Pakistan for how to improve security of its nuclear infrastructure as well.

The establishment was lacking in planning for how to negotiate its part in the War On Terror saga.

Pakistani commoners were made to believe in narrative(s) like "aalmi saazish" to keep them distracted on the other hand.

US could see the obvious, settled for an alternative solution (for itself), and bailed.

The whole double game started b/c US refused to listen to our concerns & started installing anti-pak, pro-india leaders. They had their own agenda. THAT's the root cause. Army saw this, realized they couldn't trust the Americans & decided to help the Taliban. US in turn supported TTP & Baloch separatists.

Those 7 demands were accepted b/c Musharraf was overly eager to present himself as a partner in the WoT farce in order to legitimize his rule. A constant theme throughout his rule.

The ROOT cause of this whole drama was the Americans. Establishment's main goal therefore was to kick out the US and the OPENLY hostile afghan regime. Much easier to stabilize the region when the main cause of instability & an openly hostile gov is not there. The only issue after 2009 was a face-saving exit via negotiations b/w Taliban & the puppet gov. But in the end, only they themselves negotiated with Taliban & left in a hurry which meant that there was still a big mess to resolve.

Afghan Taliban = not pleased = not touching TTP

They're not pleased b/c we turned against them in the beginning. Hard to trust when we've already helped remove them once, regardless of our own circumstances. Trust can be rebuilt with the Afghan ppl but it's a decades long project which PDFers don't have the patience for.

US = not pleased = not offering much to Pakistan

They were never going to be pleased either way. However, the US isn't investing b/c they're mad at us. It's our own shitty economic policies that keeps private investors away.

Btw, let's stop pretending that they they're pissed off about Afghanistan. The real stick in our relations is China.

BLA continues to find space in Afghanistan and launch attacks in Pakistan.

Baloch separatists are mainly an Iran-based problem now not Afg.

US now see India in much more favorable light.

They always did . They've always been soft on India compared to us. They didn't even want Pakistan to exist in the beginning. They wanted a united India.

India can establish contacts with Afghan Taliban as well.

They can try but if the trust deficit b/w us & Taliban is any indication they aren't going to get too far.

It shows that Pakistan has no system and national coherence to manage its Foreign affairs. The establishment gets to decide what to do and does not believe in Transparency and Civic Engagement to manage issues of national interest.

There's a system. It's not perfect but there is one. Incompetent politicians & adventurous generals prevent us from extracting full benefits of it.

So much for strategic depth.

You wanted strategic depth on day 1 of US withdrawal or something?