CCP Centennial: The Chinese Economic Miracle

[RiazHaq]

CCP Centennial: The Chinese Economic Miracle

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was founded one hundred years ago on July 1, 1921. The party has transformed China from a poor and backwar...

www.southasiainvestor.com

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was founded one hundred years ago on July 1, 1921. The party has transformed China from a poor and backward third world country into a vibrant and prosperous industrialized economy. This rapid historic transformation has surprised everyone, including China's friends, but especially its western foes who now see the emergence of the Asian giant as a challenge to centuries-long western domination of the world. It has also earned the CCP high levels of performance legitimacy and popularity among the Chinese people. The CCP's successful response to the COVID crisis has further boosted its legitimacy and popularity in China.
Chinese Economy:
Over the last several decades, China has built a strong manufacturing base to serve as the factory to the world. This efficient industrial base is being used by all major global brand-name multi-national giants to manufacture and supply everything from Barbie dolls to iPhones. It has served as a powerful engine to drive the Chinese economy which now rivals the US economy in size. China's GDP overtook the U.S.'s in 2017 in terms of purchasing power parity, according to Nomura Securities.

Japanese Government Projection of Future GDP Trajectories. Source: Nikkei Asia

Digital Economy:
The United States is far ahead of China in global digital economy. But the US-China battle for future dominance of this economy is now underway. The winner of this contest will dominate the next phase of global economic competition. It will be determined by achieving mastery of computer chips and software needed to build complex systems.
The United States and its ally Taiwan are far ahead of all other nations in building the most advanced 5 nanometer semiconductor components. But China is gearing up for it. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has appointed Liu He, his most trusted lieutenant, as the "chip czar" to lead this effort as a top national priority.
Technology firms today make up a quarter of the global stock market and the geographic mix has become strikingly lopsided, according to The Economist magazine. America and, increasingly, China are ascendant, accounting for 76 of the world’s 100 most valuable firms. Europe’s tally has fallen from 41 in 2000 to 15 today.

China's Research Spending. Source: Nature

Performance Legitimacy:

The failure of western-style "democracy" to handle the COVID crisis has raised serious questions about its legitimacy. Countries from the United States and the United Kingdom to Brazil and India miserably failed to prevent millions of deaths from the coronavirus pandemic. On the other hand, the Communist Party in "authoritarian" China has done a remarkable job of protecting its people from the dreaded virus.

A recent post-COVID survey conducted by the Washington Post shows that Chinese citizens’ trust in their national government has jumped to 98%. Their trust in local government also increased compared to 2018 levels — 91% of Chinese citizens surveyed now said they trust or trust completely the township-level government. Trust levels rose to 93% at the county level, 94% at the city level and 95% at the provincial level.

An earlier 2018 World Values Survey reported that 95% of Chinese citizens said that they have a great deal or quite a lot of trust in national government. Comparatively, about 69% felt the same way about their local government.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has demonstrated that the western style elections and democracy are not the only means to earn legitimacy in the eyes of the people. It has shown that it is far better to deliver results to earn "performance legitimacy".

Summary:

As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) celebrates its centenary, independent surveys indicate that the party has achieved well-deserved performance legitimacy in the eyes of the Chinese people. Over 90% of those surveyed have expressed strong approval of the Party's rule. The CCP has transformed China from a poor and backward third world country into a vibrant and prosperous industrialized economy.

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CCP Centennial: The Chinese Economic Miracle

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was founded one hundred years ago on July 1, 1921. The party has transformed China from a poor and backwar...

www.southasiainvestor.com

 

[beijingwalker]

A government's ultimate legitimacy is bringing their people a good life, the west tries very hard to make people believe China is a hell on earth to live in, but only we Chinese know what we had been through over the past 100 years and how we really live now in China.

 

[RiazHaq]

A government's ultimate legitimacy is bringing their people a good life, the west tries very hard to make people believe China is a hell on earth to live in, but only we Chinese know what we had been through over the past 100 years and how we really live now in China.

In the movie "White Tiger", lead character Balram sarcastically compares India's democracy with China's sanitation system. “If I were in charge of India, I’d get the sewage pipes first, then the democracy.” Numerous scenes in the film illustrate poor sanitation in India by showing Balram and others squatting and defecating in the open.

The White Tiger: An Incisive Social Commentary on Religion, Caste, Class and Democracy in India

News, analysis and opinions about India, Pakistan, US, Canada, Europe, Mid East, South Asia, Silicon Valley, High Technology, Economy, Politics, World

www.riazhaq.com

 

[RiazHaq]

Marking Party’s #Centennial, Xi Warns That #China Will Not Be Bullied. A century after the Communist Party’s founding, China’s leader said foreign powers would “crack their heads and spill blood” if they tried to stop its rise. #CPC100Years #UnitedStates https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/01/...ommunist-party-anniversary.html?smid=tw-share

China’s rise is unstoppable, Xi Jinping declared. The country will not be lectured. And those who try to block its ascent will hit a “Great Wall of steel.”

Mr. Xi, the most powerful Chinese leader in generations, delivered the defiant message in a speech in Beijing on Thursday that celebrated 100 years of the Chinese Communist Party.

The speech was laden with symbols intended to show that China and its ruling party would not tolerate foreign obstruction on the country’s path to becoming a superpower. The event’s pageantry symbolized a powerful nation firmly, yet comfortably, in control: A crowd of 70,000 people waved flags, sang and cheered in unison. Troops marched and jets flew overhead in perfect formations. And each time Mr. Xi made a pugnacious comment, the crowd applauded and roared approval.

At times, Mr. Xi’s strident words seemed aimed as much at Washington as at the hundreds of millions of Chinese who watched on their televisions. The biggest applause from the handpicked, Covid-screened audience on Tiananmen Square came when he declared that China would not be pushed around.

“The Chinese people will never allow foreign forces to bully, oppress or enslave us,” he said, clad in a Mao suit. “Whoever nurses delusions of doing that will crack their heads and spill blood on the Great Wall of steel built from the flesh and blood of 1.4 billion Chinese people.”

Mr. Xi’s address was one of the most anticipated of his nearly nine years in power and was all the more significant because he seeks to extend his rule. The celebration was Mr. Xi’s chance to cement a place, at least implicitly, on a dais of era-defining Chinese leaders, above all Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.

Mr. Xi has sought to portray himself as a transformative leader guiding China into a new era of global strength and rejuvenated one-party rule. And the stagecraft was focused on conveying a modern, powerful nation largely at ease while much of the world still struggles with the pandemic.

He trumpeted the party’s success in tamping down Covid-19, reducing poverty and firmly quashing dissent in Hong Kong, the former British colony. With splashes of bellicose rhetoric, he dismissed challenges from abroad, asserting that Beijing had little appetite for what it saw as sanctimonious preaching.

 

[leviathan]

What a shitty prediction. According to this, India will be a supa power and US will top China as number one in 2060!

 

[Mirzali Khan]

That graph is retarded

 

[RiazHaq]

What a shitty prediction. According to this, India will be a supa power and US will top China as number one in 2060!

The answer will depend on the outcome of #US-#China #technology war that's now underway. #America is trying to slow China down by imposing curbs on sales of high-end #semiconductors & semi #manufacturing equipment, an industry dominated by the US.

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[RiazHaq]

How China became the big winner of the COVID era
US is buying even more goods from China than it did before the pandemic

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-china-became-the-biggest-winner-of-the-covid-era


When news first broke of the COVID lockdown in Wuhan, the initial prediction was: The virus will cripple the economy of China, which is the engine of global trade, and that will be terrible for the shipping business.

Eighteen months and 3.9 million deaths later, the pandemic has had the opposite effect. Ships are full and, ironically, the country where the outbreak began has seen the biggest and broadest economic upside.

Chinese exports are now much higher than they were before the outbreak, courtesy of pandemic-induced changes in consumer behavior and COVID-driven fiscal stimulus from the world’s governments.

The only major economy to grow in 2020 was China’s. GDP growth continued in Q1 2021. Business is at an all-time high for Chinese liner operators, shipyards and container-equipment factories.

U.S. demand for Chinese exports is increasingly urgent as sales continue to offset inventory rebuilds. Trade has revved up in the opposite direction, as well: China is buying more American soybeans, crude oil, propane and natural gas.

Pandemic boosts Chinese trade
Nerijus Poskus, vice president of global ocean at Flexport, recently told American Shipper, “Back in 2020, if you’d asked 100 economists what would happen when COVID first hit China, all of them would have probably said that economies will go down, consumption will go down and prices for shipping will fall. Well, all of them would have been wrong.”


Very wrong: China’s export value in January-May averaged $247.5 billion per month, up 29% from January-May 2019, pre-COVID, according to the country’s customs data.

As more goods are going out, supporting container-shipping demand, more raw materials and commodities are coming in, employing tankers, bulkers and gas carriers. China’s import value averaged $206.8 billion per month in January-May, up 25% from the same period in 2019.

Turning trade into even more business
When demand for ocean transport surges, so too does demand for shipbuilding, container manufacturing and global liner operations. The U.S. has virtually no presence in these sectors. China is the world leader in the first two and a major force in the third.

As of Jan. 1, 2020, pre-COVID, Chinese shipyards had commercial orders totaling 29.8 million compensated gross tons (CGT), according to U.K.-based valuation and data provider VesselsValue. At that point, China — which was already the world’s largest shipbuilding nation — accounted for 38.7% of the global orderbook.

The Chinese yards’ orderbook was 26.9 million CGT as of Thursday, according to VesselsValue. While that is down from pre-COVID (orders dropped worldwide in Q1-Q3 2020 and partially rebounded thereafter), China’s share of the global orderbook is now 40.5%, even higher than it was before the pandemic.

China’s dominance is far more extreme in container-equipment manufacturing. Over 96% of all the world’s dry containers and 100% of reefer containers are manufactured in China. Factories produced 2.66 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of containers in the first five months of this year, according to data from U.K.-based consultancy Drewry.


“I would be surprised if the 5-million-TEU mark is not exceeded in 2021,” commented John Fossey, Drewry’s head of container equipment and leasing research. The previous record was 4.42 million TEUs in 2018. If 5 million TEUs were produced this year, it would represent a 61% increase compared to last year and a 77% increase versus 2019.

In the liner sector, China’s COSCO Group (including OOCL) is the world’s fourth-largest container player, with a fleet capacity of 3 million TEUs, according to Alphaliner. Like all ocean carriers, COSCO is reaping historic profits from COVID-era consumer demand; the shipping division of COSCO posted a profit of $2.7 billion for Q1 2021, more than it earned in all of last year.

According to data from IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO), the COSCO Group carried more Asian containerized imports to the U.S. in January to April than any other liner owner, accounting for 16.9% of inbound volume, slightly above its trans-Pacific market share in the same period in 2019.

China is now the world’s second-largest shipowning nation overall, behind Japan, according to VesselsValue. During the pandemic, China passed Greece to move up from third to second place.

Containerized imports from China
The ships at anchor waiting to unload at California ports highlight the strength of demand for Chinese goods.

The value of America’s goods imports from China averaged $37.7 billion per month in January-April, up 8% from the same period in 2019, pre-COVID.


To gauge U.S. importer exposure to China, American Shipper analyzed Census Bureau data on five categories of imports from China transported by container: computers and electronic products, electrical equipment and appliances, furniture and fixtures, apparel and accessories, and miscellaneous manufactured commodities.

The combined value of imports in these categories rose 10% in January-April versus the same period in 2019. The computer/electronics segment — the largest of the five categories by value — was up 10%, electrical equipment 17% and miscellaneous manufactured commodities 40%. Furniture was down 11% and apparel was down 29%.

(Chart: American Shipper based on data from U.S. Census Bureau)
Despite all the talk of supply chain diversification over the years, American sourcing remains very China-centric. In January-April, China’s average share of total U.S. import value of furniture was 37%, computers 35%, electrical equipment 33%, miscellaneous manufactured goods 33% and apparel 22%.

(Chart: American Shipper based on data from U.S. Census Bureau)
U.S. importers reliant on Chinese sourcing face a new headache. The recent COVID outbreak hitting operations in the Chinese port of Yantian and surrounding ports in June will have a major impact on trade flows going forward. Yantian and surrounding ports handle about one-quarter of China’s containerized exports to America.

Ocean carrier Maersk told customers that “both the extended duration of the disruption and the sheer number of sailings that had to omit calling Yantian” mean that it will take “weeks if not months to recover.”

“What should not be understated is the sheer magnitude of the task ahead as peak season volumes continue to ramp up,” warned Maersk.


US commodity exports to China recover
Amid the trade turmoil initiated by the Trump administration, China retaliated by curtailing purchases of American agricultural goods and energy commodities such as propane, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil.

The good news is that China is buying more American exports again.

Soybeans — China’s most important role as a buyer is in the soybean market. U.S. soybean exports to China collapsed in 2018 due to trade politics and the African Swine Flu’s impact on China’s pig population (soybeans are used to feed pigs).

Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that Chinese buying recovered by 2020, when 54% of U.S. soybean exports went to China. Total U.S. exports jumped to a record 64.1 million metric tons last year. Chinese buying continues this year, with the country taking 47% of Q1 2021 U.S. export volumes.

(Chart: American Shipper based on data from U.S. Department of Agriculture)
U.S. soybean exports to China have recently helped propel rates for dry bulk ships in the Panamax class (bulkers with capacity of 65,000-90,000 deadweight tons) to decade highs.

Propane — In the tanker markets, China is an important destination for American propane. The propane is transported aboard large 84,000-cubic-meter liquefied petroleum gas tankers and is used by China for residential consumption and as a feedstock for plastics manufacturing.


U.S. propane sales to China evaporated in 2019 during trade hostilities. But in full-year 2020 and Q1 2021, China came back to the market, taking 10% of U.S. seaborne propane exports, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.

Seaborne exports approximated by excluding exports to Canada and Mexico due to land-based transport to those countries (Chart: American Shipper based on data from EIA)
LNG — China overtook Japan last year to become the world’s largest importer of LNG. China stopped buying U.S. LNG in 2019 amid trade tensions, but accounted for 9% of America’s LNG exports last year. In Q1 2021, 8% of U.S. exports went to China, according to EIA data.

(Chart: American Shipper based on data from EIA)
Crude oil — Chinese imports from America play a key role in demand for ships called very large crude carriers (VLCCs, tankers that carry 2 million barrels of oil). VLCC demand is measured in ton-miles: volume multiplied by distance. The sailing distance from the U.S. Gulf to China is more than double the distance from the Middle East to China. Thus, the more China imports from the U.S. instead of from the Middle East, the better for VLCC rates.

China accounted for just 5% of U.S. export volume deliveries in 2019, at the height of the trade war. Its share bounced back to 17% in 2020 and 13% in Q1 2021, according to EIA data.

Seaborne exports approximated by excluding exports to Canada due to land-based transport to those countries (Chart: American Shipper based on data from EIA)Trade balance no better than pre-trade war
Overall, U.S. goods exports to China averaged $11.6 billion per month in January-April, up 38% from the same period in 2019.

The U.S.-China goods trade balance (exports minus imports) averaged minus $26.1 billion in the first four months of this year — slightly better than in January-April 2019, pre-COVID, due to the higher U.S. exports.

(Chart: American Shipper based on data from U.S. Census Bureau)
As for the effectiveness of the Trump administration’s tariffs, which have not been reversed by President Joe Biden, the average goods trade balance was minus $25.5 billion in January-April 2016, before Donald Trump’s election.

In the same period this year, the balance was 2% higher, in favor of Chinese exports to America.

 

[zhxy]

In the movie "White Tiger", lead character Balram sarcastically compares India's democracy with China's sanitation system. “If I were in charge of India, I’d get the sewage pipes first, then the democracy.” Numerous scenes in the film illustrate poor sanitation in India by showing Balram and others squatting and defecating in the open.

The White Tiger: An Incisive Social Commentary on Religion, Caste, Class and Democracy in India

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www.riazhaq.com

"American style democracy does not suit China. It's like a square peg in a round hole. Look at India, the world's biggest democracy, nearly 60% of its population defecates in the open. Its infrastructure is decades behind China. Women are not safe from Indian men. China does not want to be like India & adopt Western-style democracy"

 

[fallstuff]

So why this awesome party was complete and utter failure the first 30 years of bein gpower. So basically the party wwas right just 60% of the time with about 10s of millions of DEAD RESULTING FROM THE POLICIES OF CCP.
The credit for all its worth goes to Chinese people and not the CCP !

 

[beijingwalker]

So why this awesome party was complete and utter failure the first 30 years of bein gpower. So basically the party wwas right just 60% of the time with about 10s of millions of DEAD RESULTING FROM THE POLICIES OF CCP.
The credit for all its worth goes to Chinese people and not the CCP !

The credit should go to the people in every country for the most part, but government also play a role, before CCP , China had very incompetent govenrments for 100 years which brought China from disaster to disasters.