Can Washington Trust Modi's India As Key Ally in Asia?

[VkdIndian]

This business of TRUST in international relations is a mirage and for the naive.
Nations work for their own interests and trust lasts (or is made to last) till that requirement is met. Stronger nations are little more blatant in showing their true colours while the weaker and poorer ones have to show a little diplomacy before showing the finger.
Pakistan played double game with US w.r.t Afghanistan. Did Pakistan break the trust here? Not really. It did what it thought was good for themselves. US must be aware of it and allowed it to go till it wanted. And then US showed what they thought of Pakistan. We all remember about the most awaited telephone call in the recent past, that never came. Suddenly US had a change of heart and declared a package for PAF F-16s. Did the trust return suddenly? No. It was for a reason guessed by quite a few. Interestingly after Bajwa’s visit to US.

India is aware about these realities and that’s the reason it has decided to walk along the US, only till it wants. It went it’s own way when Russia -Ukraine happened. India went ahead and bought oil from Russia. A number of nations including few in the neighbourhood couldn’t do the same. They feared a stick from the US.

If US wants India as a key ally on its own terms then it can go ahead and remove India from the so called list of trusted nations. Because India would do what is best for her and not the US.
Indian Foreign Minister has eloquently destroyed some of those who tried to make India toe their line. That’s likely to continue to a degree controlled or restricted by Indian economy and security situation in this part of the world.

 

[Chat SAMOSA]

Can Washington Trust Modi's India As Key Ally in Asia?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the summit meeting of the China-Russia sponsored Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held i...

www.southasiainvestor.com

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the summit meeting of the China-Russia sponsored Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan this week. India is a full member of this alliance which has been created to counter the US dominance in Asia. At the same time, New Delhi has also joined QUAD, a group of 4 nations (Australia, India, Japan and US) formed by the United States to counter China's rise. Simultaneous membership of these two competing alliances is raising serious questions about Prime Minister Narendra Modi's real intentions and trustworthiness. Is this Indian policy shift from "non-alignment" to "all-alignment" sustainable?

​

2022 SCO Summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Source: Xinhua

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO):

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a political, economic and security organization designed to counter US dominance. It was founded by Beijing and Moscow in 2001. Currently, it has 8 members: China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Iran has signed a memorandum of commitment this week signaling its intention to join the SCO, underscoring the growing alignment between the U.S.'s top adversaries. India's participation in this alliance seems strange given its simultaneous membership of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD):

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) is a strategic security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States that was initiated in 2007 by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to counter growing Chinese influence in Asia. India upset Japan recently when it joined the Russia-led Vostok-2022 military exercises held around a group of islands known as the southern Kurils in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan -- a territorial dispute that dates back to the end of World War II, according to Bloomberg. India scaled back its participation in the war games -- especially staying out of the naval exercises -- in response to the Japanese objections but it left a bad taste.

Non-Alignment to All-Alignment:

The contradictions inherent in the membership of both of these competing alliances are already being exposed by Mr. Modi's large and rapidly growing purchases of Russian energy and weapons despite western sanctions. “India’s neutral public positioning on the invasion has raised difficult questions in Washington DC about our alignment of values and interests,” said Richard Rossow, a senior adviser on India policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Bloomberg News. “Such engagements -- especially if they trigger new or expanded areas of cooperation that benefit Russia -- will further erode interest among Washington policy makers for providing India a ‘pass’ on tough sanctions decision.”

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Can Washington Trust Modi's India As Key Ally in Asia?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the summit meeting of the China-Russia sponsored Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) held i...

www.southasiainvestor.com

Modi just proved what an idiot this guy Riaz Haq is. Once again.

 

[-=virus=-]

We're wise to the US and know well their very poor track record ... doing business is fine but they do not get to dictate Indian policies, either foreign or domestic.

 

[kingQamaR]

No one is really surprised what the analysts said In a polite way . China is just to large and strong to be bullied by its neighbour. Or by anyone , it’s finally sinking in peoples minds

 

[VkdIndian]

@RiazHaq has a blog. He pens his fairly useless analysis there and then reproduces them here quoting his own article as a source.

Mr Haq you have lost the plot. Please spare us from your pedestrian grasp on diplomacy.

 

[RiazHaq]

This business of TRUST in international relations is a mirage and for the naive.
Nations work for their own interests and trust lasts (or is made to last) till that requirement is met. Stronger nations are little more blatant in showing their true colours while the weaker and poorer ones have to show a little diplomacy before showing the finger.
Pakistan played double game with US w.r.t Afghanistan. Did Pakistan break the trust here? Not really. It did what it thought was good for themselves. US must be aware of it and allowed it to go till it wanted. And then US showed what they thought of Pakistan. We all remember about the most awaited telephone call in the recent past, that never came. Suddenly US had a change of heart and declared a package for PAF F-16s. Did the trust return suddenly? No. It was for a reason guessed by quite a few. Interestingly after Bajwa’s visit to US.

India is aware about these realities and that’s the reason it has decided to walk along the US, only till it wants. It went it’s own way when Russia -Ukraine happened. India went ahead and bought oil from Russia. A number of nations including few in the neighbourhood couldn’t do the same. They feared a stick from the US.

If US wants India as a key ally on its own terms then it can go ahead and remove India from the so called list of trusted nations. Because India would do what is best for her and not the US.
Indian Foreign Minister has eloquently destroyed some of those who tried to make India toe their line. That’s likely to continue to a degree controlled or restricted by Indian economy and security situation in this part of the world.

International relations are based on trust followed by verification. President Reagan put it best when he said, "Trust but verify".

We know that verification often disappoints. Example: The US and the West played the "China Card" by starting to supply China with capital and technology to counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Now China has risen to challenge the US.

Having had this experience before, the US will now likely monitor India's behavior closely as it plays the "India Card" against China. I suspect the flow of western capital and technology will most likely be proportional to the cooperation received from New Delhi.

 

[VkdIndian]

President Reagan put it best when he said, "Trust but verify".

Now you are saying that US believes in trust and being trusted? Don’t say out loud. Because that’s a joke. And if this the premise of your entire argument then we know, what that would be - A joke.

 

[-=virus=-]

I suspect the flow of X capital and technology will most likely be proportional to the cooperation received from the X.

and this is supposed to be a great revelation how exactly ?

 

[bharat62]

India will not tow line of any country , it will follow its own policy .

This business of TRUST in international relations is a mirage and for the naive.
Nations work for their own interests and trust lasts (or is made to last) till that requirement is met. Stronger nations are little more blatant in showing their true colours while the weaker and poorer ones have to show a little diplomacy before showing the finger.
Pakistan played double game with US w.r.t Afghanistan. Did Pakistan break the trust here? Not really. It did what it thought was good for themselves. US must be aware of it and allowed it to go till it wanted. And then US showed what they thought of Pakistan. We all remember about the most awaited telephone call in the recent past, that never came. Suddenly US had a change of heart and declared a package for PAF F-16s. Did the trust return suddenly? No. It was for a reason guessed by quite a few. Interestingly after Bajwa’s visit to US.

India is aware about these realities and that’s the reason it has decided to walk along the US, only till it wants. It went it’s own way when Russia -Ukraine happened. India went ahead and bought oil from Russia. A number of nations including few in the neighbourhood couldn’t do the same. They feared a stick from the US.

If US wants India as a key ally on its own terms then it can go ahead and remove India from the so called list of trusted nations. Because India would do what is best for her and not the US.
Indian Foreign Minister has eloquently destroyed some of those who tried to make India toe their line. That’s likely to continue to a degree controlled or restricted by Indian economy and security situation in this part of the world.

modi or anybody else, india will follow it's own policy .

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@RiazHaq

Brofessor sb,

ModiGee wont be around for all times to come. Can an unModiFied India be trusted by US as a key ally?

Regards

 

[nahtanbob]

Of course not. India can't help the US's strategic interests in any form or manner. Now is the time to say, "Mr Modi, Pak is 50 times more important than India"......

The loss in Afganistan is followed by putting the entire Europe into the fire.....

*VP Biden to the Afgan President Karzai: Pakistan is 50 times more important than Afganistan.

Pakistan 50 times more important ??

Go ahead and get, Russia engine are bad. If good, you wouldn't be getting from USA. France do not have similar class of engine like F414. UK is under US control. Your option is limited if US sanction you. And you think you really has a choice?

RD-33 and AL-31/AL-41 are better than nothing

@RiazHaq has a blog. He pens his fairly useless analysis there and then reproduces them here quoting his own article as a source.

Mr Haq you have lost the plot. Please spare us from your pedestrian grasp on diplomacy.

pedestrian would be a kind word

 

[RiazHaq]

Dr Claude Rakisits
@ClaudeRakisits
Now that the war in #Ukraine is starting to seriously turn against #Russia, ⁦
@PMOIndia
⁩ now sees the benefits in being publicly critical of #Putin. It’s unfortunate that #India hadn’t taken a more principled position from the start.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1571015863712550912

@RiazHaq

Brofessor sb,

ModiGee wont be around for all times to come. Can an unModiFied India be trusted by US as a key ally?

Regards

It depends. If Modi's successors pursue the same policy of "all-alignment", then they won't likely be considered trustworthy either.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@RiazHaq

Brofessor sb,

Now that the war in #Ukraine is starting to seriously turn against #Russia, ⁦@PMOIndia
now sees the benefits in being publicly critical of #Putin. It’s unfortunate that #India hadn’t taken a more principled position from the start.

It is an age old Hindu trait of siding with the strong. You would surely recall that IND sided with USSR in the Cold War but after the USSR broke up went over to the US. If PRC were to beat USA in Cold War 2.0 surely Indian will suck up to the Chinese.

Regards

 

[RiazHaq]

China-led SCO pushes multipolar world as Xi warns of 'color' revolts
Beijing, Moscow challenge Western influence in joint statement

China-led SCO pushes multipolar world as Xi warns of 'color' revolts

Beijing, Moscow challenge Western influence in joint statement

asia.nikkei.com

Leaders from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization called for a stronger multilateral world order led by several powers and regions in a joint statement Friday, as China and Russia push to expand the framework to counter America's global unipolar influence.

The declaration, issued after a two-day summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, urged closer cooperation on a wide range of fields from politics and economy to national security and culture.

The eight member states "reaffirm their commitment to a more representative, democratic, just and multipolar world order based on the universally recognized principles of international law," the statement says.

Xi on Friday also urged cooperation to prevent foreign powers from meddling in internal affairs and instigating "color revolutions," referring to the series of anti-regime protests largely in the former Soviet Union. China considers Taiwan part of its territory and thus a domestic matter.

China and Russia consider the world to be at a crossroads with the rise of Asia and the war in Ukraine. They see the SCO, which Iran is now set to formally join next year, as a tool to increase their international clout.

Still, it is unclear how closely members can work together given the organization's limitations.

Established in 2001, the SCO functions as a loose grouping that fosters stability and trust between former Soviet states and promotes multilateral cooperation. In addition to China and Russia, its official members are Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, India and Pakistan.

Fourteen leaders attended this week's summit, including from observer states Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia, and dialogue partners Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Turkey and Sri Lanka.

The grouping is seeking out new members to bolster its clout. Iran this week signed a memorandum toward attending the 2023 summit in India as its ninth full-fledged member. Belarus, a Russian ally, has begun the membership process, while Turkey has expressed interest as well.

Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar newly signed on as dialogue partners with an eye on eventually joining the framework. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Myanmar, Bahrain and the Maldives will start the process as well.

But unlike NATO, which is a political and military alliance, the SCO is not a united bloc. Its agreements generally are not legally binding, and regional issues are usually settled bilaterally between individual members.

Some members are at odds with each other, like China and India over their shared border. While Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin affirmed their opposition to U.S. "provocations" in a Thursday summit, they signaled a rift in their position on the war in Ukraine.

China and Russia have also used other channels like BRICS -- their grouping with Brazil, India and South Africa -- to advocate for an alternative to the Western-led international order. They have promoted an expanded "BRICS Plus" framework, which includes other emerging and developing economies.

Meanwhile, the U.S., Japan and Europe are deepening their cooperation with countries that share similar values, like the rule of law. They have launched the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with India and Australia and the AUKUS grouping with Australia in recent years as a deterrent against China and Russia in the Asia-Pacific.

China-India relations: Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi continue to keep each other at arm’s length | South China Morning Post


https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...lations-xi-jinping-and-narendra-modi-continue


Chinese President Xi Jinping met at least 12 state leaders for one-on-one talks during a three-day diplomatic blitz last week, his first trip outside China since the early days of the pandemic.

But they did not include Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The pair posed for group photos at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit held in the Uzbek city of Samarkand and attended multilateral meetings, but there was no publicly reported two-way meeting. The deadly clash in the Galwan Valley two years ago continues to weigh on relations and Beijing is concerned by Delhi’s growing closeness to the US

 

[RiazHaq]

#India’s words are anti-war, but #NewDelhi’s actions are propping up #Putin’s regime. Rather than cutting economic ties with #Kremlin, #Modi is undermining Western sanctions by increasing purchases of #Russian #oil, #coal and #fertilizer. #US #Ukraine

India's words are anti-war, but New Delhi's actions are propping up Putin's regime | CNN

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Vladimir Putin "today's era is not of war" last month, the West welcomed his comments as a sign the world's largest democracy was finally coming off the fence about Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

www.cnn.com

This apparent contradiction exemplifies India’s unique position on the war: verbally distancing itself from Russia, while continuing to maintain pivotal ties with Moscow.

Modi’s “stronger language to Putin” should be seen in the context of rising food, fuel and fertilizer prices, and the “hardships that was creating for other countries,” said Deepa Ollapally, research professor and director of the Rising Powers Initiative at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University.

“There’s a certain level of impatience (for India) with the intensification of the war,” she said. “There’s a feeling that Putin is pushing India’s limits because in some ways, it’s put itself out on a limb. And it’s not a comfortable position for India to be in.”

----------

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Vladimir Putin “today’s era is not of war” last month, the West welcomed his comments as a sign the world’s largest democracy was finally coming off the fence about Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron praised Modi and the White House lauded what it called a “statement of principle.”

But the reality, analysts say, is less straightforward.

Rather than cutting economic ties with the Kremlin, India has undermined Western sanctions by increasing its purchases of Russian oil, coal and fertilizer – giving Putin a vital financial lifeline.

New Delhi has repeatedly abstained from votes condemning Russia at the United Nations – providing Moscow with a veneer of international legitimacy. And in August, India participated in Russia’s large-scale Vostok military exercises alongside China, Belarus, Mongolia and Tajikistan – where Moscow paraded its vast arsenal.

Last week, India abstained from another UN draft resolution condemning Russia over its sham referendums in four regions of Ukraine, which have been used as a pretext by Moscow to illegally annex Ukrainian territory – significantly upping the stakes in the war.

India is “deeply disturbed” by the developments in Ukraine, said Ruchira Kamboj, New Delhi’s permanent representative to the UN, but stopped short of attributing blame and urged an “immediate ceasefire and resolution of the conflict.”

-------------

‘A tale of two Indias’
As Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s border in December last year, Modi welcomed Putin in New Delhi during the 21st India-Russia Annual Summit.

“My dear friend, President Vladimir Putin,” Modi said, “your attachment with India and your personal commitment symbolize the importance of India-Russia relations and I am very grateful to you for that.”

New Delhi has strong ties with Moscow dating back to the Cold War, and India remains heavily reliant on the Kremlin for military equipment – a vital link given India’s ongoing tensions at its shared Himalayan border with an increasingly assertive China.

But according to analysts, India is concerned that Putin’s increasing isolation could draw Moscow closer to Beijing – and that requires India to tread carefully.

New Delhi’s contorted maneuvering in its stance on Russia’s aggression in Ukraine was on show when, alongside China, it took part in Russia’s Vostok military exercises – a move attacked by its Western partners.

“This can be seen as a tale of two Indias,” said Ollapally. “On the one hand, they are pushing back against China and then exercising along with China and Russia, giving Russia a certain amount of legitimacy.”

#Russia becomes #India’s 2nd-largest crude #oil supplier after #SaudiArabia. India’s September imports of Russian oil rose 18.5% from August reaching 879,000 barrels per day (bpd) of #Russian oil in September 2022.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...rgest-crude-supplier/articleshow/94628529.cms


India’s September imports of Russian oil rose 18.5% from August after falling for two months, making it the country’s second-largest crude supplier after Saudi Arabia, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa. The import of 879,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in September is the second highest in a month ever for India after June’s 933,000 bpd.

“India may consider importing more Russian crude this quarter as refiners ramp up runs to meet the seasonal rise in domestic demand an ..