Can Taliban stop TTP and other terrorist organizations?

[Pak Nationalist]

I can understand what you are saying. But let me explain you further

Pakistan has two biggest security concerns today:

1. TTP
2. BLA


Let me discuss number 2 first

With Afghanistan under Taliban, BLA days of enjoying safe havens in Afghanistan are all over. BLA would either have to come back to mountains of Balochistan if it wishes to continue its fight against Pakistan or go to Iran and try to take refuge there like BLF but for that BLA would have to become proxy of Iran

So in a way we can say that second threat is pretty much neutralized with its safe havens gone

Now coming to number 1 aka TTP

TTP relationship with IEA is complicated. It is true that TTP fight alongside IEA against ANA or even ISKP in provinces like Kunar, Nangarhar, Khost and Paktika. But it had simply no role in many other provinces like Kunduz or Takhar or Faryab. So while some IEA leadership would have soft corner for it, many others would be neutral towards them

Now here is where Pakistan needs to play its cards wisely. Afghan Taliban need international recognition. They have spent a lot of time visiting Russia, China, even Iran to get recognition for themselves. China has already shown willingness to recognize them if they don't give support refuge to organizations like TTP or ETIM etc etc. TTP attacking Pakistan would be bad for CPEC and Chinese investments in Pakistan. So it is not that simple of a situation. These Taliban are not the Taliban of 1996. These are different Taliban. They need Pakistan's recognition along with China. So lets wait and see and play our cards wisely

Some very valid arguments. I would like to ask a few questions where I think there is more to what meets the eye. Dasu engineering team was attacked by TTP. In reaction to the probe's finding, the TTP while shrugging off the responsibility, warned China not to assist Pakistan against it or it would attack its interests in Pakistan. So, it could be argued that TTP could continue waging war against the Pakistani state focusing on tribal districts which aren't majorly effected by the CPEC. Secondly, after sanctuary for Baloch militants is taken away in Afghanistan, they would move into Balochistan itself to orchestrate their campaign of instability and if the current trends give any indications, they would be able to get away with it because our SFs have shown little capability of degrading their presence in mountains of Balochistan. If the leadership moves back, that is another thing and then we could eliminate that leadership which might effect the operational capabilities of these outfits. I suspect that Indians have already airlifted the militant leadership (Baloch) to India itself and these malign characters would run their campaign from there. Losing Afghanistan as a staging base does take away the freedom to train from secessionists, though. As for TTA and TTP, you are right, it is a wait-and-watch game and my view on this is to be silent observers till we know for sure in which direction the winds are going to blow.

 

[Khanate]

Some very valid arguments. I would like to ask a few questions where I think there is more to what meets the eye. Dasu engineering team was attacked by TTP. In reaction to the probe's finding, the TTP while shrugging off the responsibility, warned China not to assist Pakistan against it or it would attack its interests in Pakistan. So, it could be argued that TTP could continue waging war against the Pakistani state focusing on tribal districts which aren't majorly effected by the CPEC. Secondly, after sanctuary for Baloch militants is taken away in Afghanistan, they would move into Balochistan itself to orchestrate their campaign of instability and if the current trends give any indications, they would be able to get away with it because our SFs have shown little capability of degrading their presence in mountains of Balochistan. If the leadership moves back, that is another thing and then we could eliminate that leadership which might effect the operational capabilities of these outfits. I suspect that Indians have already airlifted the militant leadership (Baloch) to India itself and these malign characters would run their campaign from there. Losing Afghanistan as a staging base does take away the freedom to train from secessionists, though. As for TTA and TTP, you are right, it is a wait-and-watch game and my view on this is to be silent observers till we know for sure in which direction the winds are going to blow.

Not so easy.

The recognition of TTA regime is premised upon Afghan soil not being used for terrorism in the region. This is the demand from US, China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian Republics.

Now there is no guarantee TTP will listen to TTA which raises the question as to how TTA will deal with them. Will they take the religious path (fatwa like infidels left and jihad have ended)? force a merger? or a direct confrontation? Remains to be seen.

Another possibility is covert action by Pakistan but in all scenarios life for TTP will become miserable.

BLA perhaps is the biggest loser. They will be forced to relocate to Iran where BLF/BRAS operates but that means BLA will play second fiddle to BLF/BRAS, and remember there is a lot of rivalry in BRAS. At minimum, BLA will lose operational freedom.

For Iran, it will be difficult to justify BRAS presence on its soil as they mount attack on Chinese nationals. It could jeopardize Iran's $400 billion deal with China.

• China-Iran $400 Billion Accord: A Power Shift Threatens Western Energy

 

[FuturePAF]

Pakistan needs to rescue/capture this guy. A TTP commander that wanted to talk to the Pakistani government but was arrested by the former Kabul regime for it. He might be able to persuade some or many of the TTP fighters to surrender.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427358426498322437

 

[pakdefender]

That the TTP had/has sanctuaries in Afghanistan is well known , the TTP was being co-opted by the RAW NDS nexus as well as the CIA. The open source evidence for this is the case of Latifullah Mehsud who was in the protection of an Afghan Army convoy when the US forces snatched him and the case of the killing of the CIA agents by a Jordanian double agent who was seen with Hakimullah Mehsud , the CIA thought he was "their man" but apparently not , none the less it brought to light the reach the CIA had into the militant networks.

So , with the folding up of the US&NATO missions , it is unlikely that the TTP could make it back to center stage while being designated a global terrorists organization , on the contrary the Afghan Taliban are on cusp of forming a government , thus they have a path to international legitimacy.

Will the afghan Taliban risk loosing all that they have worked for just the Mehsud tribe , who is not even from the Loy Kandhar region which is the heartland of the Afghan Taliban ? It is very unlikely , there are no high ranking Afghan taliban from the Mehsud tribe, TTP stands orphaned

 

[Pak Nationalist]

Not so easy.

The recognition of TTA regime is premised upon Afghan soil not being used for terrorism in the region. This is the demand from US, China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian Republics.

Now there is no guarantee TTP will listen to TTA which raises the question as to how TTA will deal with them. Will they take the religious path (fatwa like infidels left and jihad have ended)? force a merger? or a direct confrontation? Remains to be seen.

Another possibility is covert action by Pakistan but in all scenarios life for TTP will become miserable.

BLA perhaps is the biggest loser. They will be forced to relocate to Iran where BLF/BRAS operates but that means BLA will play second fiddle to BLF/BRAS, and remember there is a lot of rivalry in BRAS. At minimum, BLA will lose operational freedom.

For Iran, it will be difficult to justify BRAS presence on its soil as they mount attack on Chinese nationals. It could jeopardize Iran's $400 billion deal with China.

• China-Iran $400 Billion Accord: A Power Shift Threatens Western Energy

This begs the question that why have the Chinese not complained to Iran about Baloch insurgents (BLF militants) or more importantly, if they have, why is Iran not listening to them? The last attack on Chinese citizens in Karachi was orchestrated by BLF. BLF militants claimed the responsibility for the attack as well.

TTA can't push 10,000 strong TTP members too much either. We have to understand the pickle they are in with the introduction of ISKP to this region. The militants have options now. TTP elements could always revert to ISKP if TTA takes a stand against them. I am not sure if TTA that is quite independent and nationalistic (contrary to popular perception) would take our covert actions in TTA controlled territory very well; that would again run the risk of further cementing the relationship between TTA and TTP.

 

[PradoTLC]

Ok some people are saying that Taliban victory will lead to more terrorism in Pakistan

While some are saying TTP joined ISIS
(Afghan Taliban and ISIS are enemies)

There's any truth to it? or Thier are factions within TTP with some joining ISIS while some staying Independent/with AT

2- Will Pakistanis take inspiration from AT which ll result in rise of extremism?

3- Are Taliban strong enough to take on all the organizations within thier borders in the next 2-3 years

Considering Afghanistan is home to Ughars, TTP, Uzbek, Tajik, even BLA (although some say it's in Iran)

Can they successfully route out all these groups within the next couple of years

(Provided they are interested in it in the first place)

With out a base of operation it is unlikely TTP can continue its terror activities

 

[FuturePAF]

With out a base of operation it is unlikely TTP can continue its terror activities

But they can hide in the population. Human intelligence and working with the authorities/tribal leaders in control of an area is the most sustainable and long term solution to keep the threat down or eliminating it when it pops up.

 

[iLION12345_1]

Pakistan needs to rescue/capture this guy. A TTP commander that wanted to talk to the Pakistani government but was arrested by the former Kabul regime for it. He might be able to persuade some or many of the TTP fighters to surrender.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427358426498322437

He was also released by former Kabul government months ago in April. To use against Pakistan. Along with other TTP leaders. The news that he and others were freed by Taliban is false.

 

[PradoTLC]

But they can hide in the population. Human intelligence and working with the authorities/tribal leaders in control of an area is the most sustainable and long term solution to keep the threat down or eliminating it when it pops up.

hiding among the population works only if there is popular support.

w

 

[FuturePAF]

hiding among the population works only if there is popular support.

w

*enough popular support ; some maybe willing to hide them for money or other reasons. With their rear areas closed, their “popular support” may be evaporating but still need to keep an eye out for them.

 

[PradoTLC]

*enough popular support ; some maybe willing to hide them for money or other reasons. With their rear areas closed, their “popular support” may be evaporating but still need to keep an eye out for them.

Pakistan CT units have sufficient capability to deal with that.

the issue is improving the quality of our police forces... they are the first line of defense.

 

[S.Y.A]

Only thing for Pakistan to do is to take out ttp leadership in afghanistan, and keep on targeting them. it will destroy their structure.

 

[Scorpio_26]

All Indian sanghi bs propaganda gone to hell

https://twitter.com/x/status/1427538493643894809

 

[H!TchHiker]

shall wait and see ...Pakistan should demand of it ...if they don't take action and handover these terrorist atleast there will be clarity on our side...
As of now they have said no to allow anyone using Afghanistan soil ...let's give them time and be positive to hope it's being true

 

[Azog]

Baloch insurgents in Afghanistan can be stopped. Their leaders are secular, nothing to do Islamic slogans.

TTP is a complex issue. First we need to deal with BLA and Islamic State(direct conflict with Taliban)