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Can Pakistan take on the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba?
* Former RAW official says Islamabad could stop Lashkar if it stops considering LT a strategic asset
LONDON: If Pakistans battle against the Taliban seems difficult, a much tougher challenge lies ahead: deciding what to do about the banned Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LT).
Security experts from the United States and India believe the Pakistan Army and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency could shut down the group accused of carrying out the Mumbai attacks if they choose to do so.
The Pakistan Army could do it and the ISI could tell them where to find those guys in a heartbeat, said Bruce Riedel, a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) officer who led a review of strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan for President Barack Obama.
Asset: If they wanted to shut them down they could, said B Raman, a former Additional Secretary at Indias Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). They can do it, but they dont want to do it because they look upon it as a strategic asset.
But Samina Yasmeen, a professor at the University of Western Australia who is researching a book on LT said the reality on the ground might be more complicated.
Over the years, she said, LT had given birth to splinter groups, which had broken free both of the Pakistan Army and the ISI, and even from the LT leadership.
There are elements within the Lashkar that are not under the control of the army anymore. They really moved on a trajectory that people did not expect, she said. After 9/11, there was a section that emerged within the Lashkar that may not be under the control of its own leadership.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh pushed LT to the top of the agenda last week by effectively telling President Asif Ali Zardari that India would not re-open peace talks until Islamabad acted against the banned organisation.
He seems to have won support in the West, where LT is thought to be, potentially, as big a danger as Al Qaeda. I think we have to regard the LT as much a threat to us as any other part of the Al Qaeda system, Riedel said.
Like many extremist groups, LT was born out of CIA-backed jihad against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and then began operations in Kashmir in 1993, Indian analysts say.
According to Raman, LT had a larger presence in the country than the Taliban, and a charitable wing, the Jamaatud Dawa, carries out humanitarian work.
With land, property and madrassas across the country, LT collaborated with Al Qaeda while also offering its training infrastructure to Pakistanis from the diaspora, he said.
But unlike other groups, it has been scrupulous in avoiding attacks in the country, thereby avoiding the wrath of the army that has now turned on the Taliban.
For security analysts, the two questions are whether the army and ISI can close down LT, and if they want to do so the assumption being that this would have to be done by the countrys military rather than the civilian government. Riedel said he believed the capability was there, but said taking on LT would be hard.
Its become more and more difficult but I would not underestimate ISIs knowledge base. They would be able to bring people in, he said.
But Yasmeen said more problems could be created by targeting the leadership. You limit their ability to have some possibility of controlling those below. The risk of splintering increases, she said. Analysts said giving up LT, seen as a force multiplier in case of an invasion by India rather like citizens trained in civil defence would be another step altogether.
Would the army chief turn against LT? My sense of Kayani is that he is very pragmatic. He hasnt accepted that India is not a threat to Pakistan, said Yasmeen.
From Kayanis point of view, does he want to deny himself the possibility of using all trained and semi-trained people?
That question returns to the Catch 22 of India-Pakistan relations. Without peace, Pakistan may never fully turn against LT. And India will not offer peace talks until it does so.
reuters
* Former RAW official says Islamabad could stop Lashkar if it stops considering LT a strategic asset
LONDON: If Pakistans battle against the Taliban seems difficult, a much tougher challenge lies ahead: deciding what to do about the banned Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LT).
Security experts from the United States and India believe the Pakistan Army and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency could shut down the group accused of carrying out the Mumbai attacks if they choose to do so.
The Pakistan Army could do it and the ISI could tell them where to find those guys in a heartbeat, said Bruce Riedel, a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) officer who led a review of strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan for President Barack Obama.
Asset: If they wanted to shut them down they could, said B Raman, a former Additional Secretary at Indias Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). They can do it, but they dont want to do it because they look upon it as a strategic asset.
But Samina Yasmeen, a professor at the University of Western Australia who is researching a book on LT said the reality on the ground might be more complicated.
Over the years, she said, LT had given birth to splinter groups, which had broken free both of the Pakistan Army and the ISI, and even from the LT leadership.
There are elements within the Lashkar that are not under the control of the army anymore. They really moved on a trajectory that people did not expect, she said. After 9/11, there was a section that emerged within the Lashkar that may not be under the control of its own leadership.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh pushed LT to the top of the agenda last week by effectively telling President Asif Ali Zardari that India would not re-open peace talks until Islamabad acted against the banned organisation.
He seems to have won support in the West, where LT is thought to be, potentially, as big a danger as Al Qaeda. I think we have to regard the LT as much a threat to us as any other part of the Al Qaeda system, Riedel said.
Like many extremist groups, LT was born out of CIA-backed jihad against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and then began operations in Kashmir in 1993, Indian analysts say.
According to Raman, LT had a larger presence in the country than the Taliban, and a charitable wing, the Jamaatud Dawa, carries out humanitarian work.
With land, property and madrassas across the country, LT collaborated with Al Qaeda while also offering its training infrastructure to Pakistanis from the diaspora, he said.
But unlike other groups, it has been scrupulous in avoiding attacks in the country, thereby avoiding the wrath of the army that has now turned on the Taliban.
For security analysts, the two questions are whether the army and ISI can close down LT, and if they want to do so the assumption being that this would have to be done by the countrys military rather than the civilian government. Riedel said he believed the capability was there, but said taking on LT would be hard.
Its become more and more difficult but I would not underestimate ISIs knowledge base. They would be able to bring people in, he said.
But Yasmeen said more problems could be created by targeting the leadership. You limit their ability to have some possibility of controlling those below. The risk of splintering increases, she said. Analysts said giving up LT, seen as a force multiplier in case of an invasion by India rather like citizens trained in civil defence would be another step altogether.
Would the army chief turn against LT? My sense of Kayani is that he is very pragmatic. He hasnt accepted that India is not a threat to Pakistan, said Yasmeen.
From Kayanis point of view, does he want to deny himself the possibility of using all trained and semi-trained people?
That question returns to the Catch 22 of India-Pakistan relations. Without peace, Pakistan may never fully turn against LT. And India will not offer peace talks until it does so.
reuters
