Can Pakistan learn from the mess Modi has created in India's economy

[maximuswarrior]

Indians chest thumping as usual when the whole world knows that Modi’s monetary policies are a disaster. Keep pretending that everything is fine.

It is funny how these Indian fools are so obsessed to always involve Pakistan into their mess.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Formal jobs created: 15 million
GDP growth rate: 6.5-7%
Exchange rate: Stable
Fiscal deficit: 3.2%
Inflation: <4%
Forex: $400B+
CAD: <2.5%
FDI: $70B+

Apparently, this is called a mess.

That figure of job creation: where does it come from? I deal with it professionally; the organised sector, IT in particular, has taken a hit, the unorganised sector has taken a bigger hit. There is also the nasty effect of the interplay of several factors; I might have trained plumbers, electricians, carpenters and masons; if house-building takes a hit, where do these people get work? Don't give me rosy pictures; I have to cope with the hardships people face on a daily basis.

Indians chest thumping as usual when the whole world knows that Modi’s monetary policies are a disaster. Keep pretending that everything is fine.

It is funny how these Indian fools are so obsessed to always involve Pakistan into their mess.

If you have something of substance to contribute, do so, please. If you just want to be noticed, can you please do it without insult and and sneer? If you can't, just say so.

Second, could I please be educated on how you concluded that 'Indian fools' have involved Pakistan into (sic) their mess? Since you haven't noticed or couldn't care less, it was a Pakistani member who started this thread.

@PDFChamp

Champ, I'll get back to you. Heavy day ahead.

 

[third eye]

Indians chest thumping as usual when the whole world knows that Modi’s monetary policies are a disaster. Keep pretending that everything is fine.

It is funny how these Indian fools are so obsessed to always involve Pakistan into their mess.

Have you read the thread ?

A pak poster has posed a question .. Now who is obsessed ?

 

[randomradio]

That figure of job creation: where does it come from? I deal with it professionally; the organised sector, IT in particular, has taken a hit, the unorganised sector has taken a bigger hit. There is also the nasty effect of the interplay of several factors; I might have trained plumbers, electricians, carpenters and masons; if house-building takes a hit, where do these people get work? Don't give me rosy pictures; I have to cope with the hardships people face on a daily basis.

On a second look, I think I've added formal sector and self-employment in urban areas in that figure.

The UN's ILO states that in 2016 alone South Asia created over 13 million jobs and most of that came from India. So this is total formal + informal.

http://www.business-standard.com/ar...-rate-to-remain-at-3-4-un-117011300307_1.html

 

[Joe Shearer]

On a second look, I think I've added formal sector and self-employment in urban areas in that figure.

The UN's ILO states that in 2016 alone South Asia created over 13 million jobs and most of that came from India. So this is total formal + informal.

http://www.business-standard.com/ar...-rate-to-remain-at-3-4-un-117011300307_1.html

I am still surprised, but that may be a possibility. I had used GoI figures in a PowerPoint and more or less work on those.

The situation is pretty grim.

 

[randomradio]

I am still surprised, but that may be a possibility. I had used GoI figures in a PowerPoint and more or less work on those.

The situation is pretty grim.

We don't have proper data outside the formal sector.

For example, I'm not sure if I'm in the formal or informal sector. I am self-employed and earn forex for the govt. If only paying taxes mean I am in the formal sector, then great, but I have no clue what it means, meaning it doesn't make a difference to me, but I'm pretty sure the govt has little to no data on me. So if I wasn't paying taxes, I would be considered an unemployed idiot as far as the govt is concerned. And there are thousands like me and thousands entering this market every day because of the internet. Many have taken up stock trading, cryptocurrency mining, then there's internet blogs, youtube etc. Many of these are informal and out of the ambit of govt studies, lots of tax evaders here.

The MUDRA scheme has helped in financing the informal sector as well. 22+ million beneficiaries since 2014. We have no data on what's happened here. Even a beauty parlour will have 3 or 4 hired hands.

Let's not forget freelance and contract workers working for Indian employers. I wonder if the govt has any kind of real data on them either. The employers don't have to report them as far as I know.

The fact is we have added $600B to the economy since 2014. There's no way jobs were not created if all other formal sectors are down. We would technically have been in recession if we were losing jobs.

 

[rishav]

India is more likely to see GDP growth of 3.x-4.x and not 7.x.

oh you wish

Oh crap! The prophetic words of the master pakistani economists in this forum. Indian exports are down in the dumps, decreasing continuously due to the horrific demo & GST of the ELECTED "dictator & undemocratic" Modi and the worst FM Jaitley. Curse Them!

Exports grow 26% in September, fastest in 6 months

http://m.businesstoday.in/story/ind...th-september-petroleum-chemical/1/262026.html


Btw, exports have risen for 13 straight months now.

 

[Great Sachin]

This is win win situation...Indians are happy and enemy is also happy with Indian economy
Carry on with this kind of mess Modi ji....India and world very happy with this mess

 

[ashok mourya]

Modi modi modi...
India’s industrial growth clocks nine-
month high of 4.3% in August

PTINEW DELHI 12 OCTOBER 2017 18:23 IST
UPDATED: 12 OCTOBER 2017 19:13 IST

• 
  
  

Factory output growth measured in terms of Index of Industrial Production stood at 4% last August.



Industrial production grew at a nine-month high of 4.3% in August, mainly on account of robust performance of mining and power sectors coupled with higher capital goods output, official data showed on October 12.

Factory output growth measured in terms of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) stood at 4% in August 2016, as per data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The previous high in IIP growth was recorded at 5.7% in November 2016.

IIP growth during April-August period of this fiscal stood at 2.2%, down from 5.9% in same period in 2016-17. Meanwhile, the July IIP number was revised to 0.94% from 1.2% provisional estimates released in September.

The output growth in manufacturing sector, which constitutes 77.63% of the index, however decelerated to 3.1% in August from 5.5% a year ago. The output of the mining and electricity sectors grew at 9.4% and 8.3% as compared to August 2016.

As per use-based classification, the growth rates in August 2017 over August 2016 are 7.1% in primary goods, 5.4% in capital goods, (—) 0.2% in intermediate goods and 2.5% in infrastructure/ construction goods.

The consumer durables and consumer non-durables sectors recorded growth of 1.6% and 6.9%, respectively.

In terms of industries, 10 out of 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown positive growth during August 2017.

The industry group ‘Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products’ showed the highest positive growth of 24.9%, followed by 16.5% in ‘pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical products’ and 11.1% in ‘other transport equipment’.

On the other hand, the industry group ‘Manufacture of furniture’ showed the highest negative growth of (—) 16%, followed by (—) 15.1% in ‘tobacco products’ and (—) 11.4% in ‘Printing and reproduction of recorded media’.

 

[PDFChamp]

I waited for a while hoping Modi would be another Vajpayee who was a pleasant surprise. (Too bad we couldn't make a deal with him). But, it wasn't to be the case. Now he has been in power for over three years and we can better judge his performance despite the claims of a 56" chest by his diehard fans. It's not too early and not unfair now.

1. the GDP formula change inflated the GDP growth number by as much as 2% point (See the Al Jazeera report)

We see the manipulation of GDPs in the US as well. Politician playing with numbers to look good. Why such an obsession with one number? Votes?

A recent CNN report has called this a "Jobless Growth" for India over the past 15 years.

Similarly, it's called a "Jobless Recovery" in the US. US has changed the GDP formula at least couple of times, in the 80s (under Reagan) and in the 90s (under Clinton).

For example, a website compares US Gov't's reported GDP and Unemployment numbers with the formula used in the 80s and 90s. The two graph below shows why the US also has a jobless recovery: no real growth just window dressing to look good??

This site alleges the US GDP "growth" rate is actually negative 2%.

and, if the formula used in 1980 was used today, the unemployment could be as high as 20%+. (Please do verify for yourself this person's claims.)

2. The trend in the last 4 quarters is down and not stopping anytime soon. Both the World-bank and the IMF are still lowering forecast for the current FY18 after being in denial for over a year.

FY-17, Q2: 7.5
FY-17, Q3:7
FY-17, Q4: 6.1
FY-18, Q1: 5.7

That's what you call a trend. The 5.7 growth rate in the last reported quarter, could really be 4.7 or even 3.7 if Mr. Sinha, above, is correct.

3. Youth dividend has been turned on its head according to Sarkar's own numbers. In the same Al Jazeera report above:

In fact, that is not entirely true. Demonetisation, implemented properly, might have had a far more positive impact. First, they didn't prepare; there were insufficient numbers of new notes, banks ran dry, ATMs ran dry (they are still erratic), some chucklehead designed new Rs. 2,000 notes that didn't fit ATM note trays and some other chuckleheads failed to spot that....we still haven't recovered easy and quick note availability. Those positioned to do that made electronic wallets and things and did very well. But a vast number of daily wage workers and roadside vendors, small shop owners, van operators ate very light for some months. The effect continues.

One has to wonder with so many mistakes if they weren't done by design? IE force people to leave the cash in the banks and use digital money for transactions. Gov't takes control of your money and you lose the right to pay cash for a legitimate transaction. Take away more of the freedoms.

That figure of job creation: where does it come from? I deal with it professionally; the organised sector, IT in particular, has taken a hit, the unorganised sector has taken a bigger hit. There is also the nasty effect of the interplay of several factors; I might have trained plumbers, electricians, carpenters and masons; if house-building takes a hit, where do these people get work? Don't give me rosy pictures; I have to cope with the hardships people face on a daily basis.
@PDFChamp

Champ, I'll get back to you. Heavy day ahead.

No worries. I trust your experience over sarkar's number after changes to the formulas anyways. Manipulation of numbers is allegedly worse in the US. More on that topic above, the first point.

We don't have proper data outside the formal sector.

Let's not forget freelance and contract workers working for Indian employers. I wonder if the govt has any kind of real data on them either. The employers don't have to report them as far as I know.

Exactly. some have said the informal sector created 80-90% of new jobs. With the surgical strike on Indian cash, the so called informal economy (Black market) was targeted according to one narrative. then it was the terrorists, then the rich and powerful and their hordes of cash and then to digitize and modernize.

oh, you wish!

Exports grow 26% in September, fastest in 6 months

Btw, exports have risen for 13 straight months now.

According to the author of the original article, it's not about just part of the picture but the whole picture that matters.

Modi modi modi...
India’s industrial growth clocks nine-
month high of 4.3% in August

One month not a trend make! Wait for 2 quarter at the very least to see a quarter over quarter trend and more importantly, the impact on jobs and the overall GDP growth.

Please you dimwits have no zero vision and fail to see what Modi is doing.

Mr. Vision, meet Mr. Math. after three years, no job growth and GDP, if it wasn't for the new formula, would be around 4%. Vote for him for another 5 years. Go right ahead make my day.

Everything all of you have told me above makes me more worried. Far from dissuading me, I am beginning to believe the author of the MoneyControl article.

 

[axisofevil]

I waited for a while hoping Modi would be another Vajpayee; he was a pleasant surprise. (Too bad we couldn't make a deal with him). But, it wasn't to be the case. Now he has been in power for over three years and we can better judge his performance despite the claims of a 56" chest by his diehard fans. It's not too early and not unfair now.

1. the GDP formula change inflated the GDP growth number by as much as 2% point (See the Al Jazeera report)
View attachment 431272

We see the manipulation of GDPs in the US as well. Politician playing with numbers to look good. Why such an obsession with one number? Votes?

A recent CNN report has called this a "Jobless Growth" for India over the past 15 years.

Similarly, it's called a "Jobless Recovery" in the US. US has changed the GDP formula at least couple of times, in the 80s (under Reagan) and in the 90s (under Clinton).

For example, a website compares US Gov't's reported GDP and Unemployment numbers with the formula used in the 80s and 90s. The two graph below shows why the US also has a jobless recovery: no real growth just window dressing to look good??

This site alleges the US GDP "growth" rate is actually negative 2%.

and, if the formula used in 1980 was used today, the unemployment could be as high as 20%+. (Please do verify for yourself this person's claims.)

2. The trend is the last 4 quarters is down and not stopping anytime soon. Both the World-bank and the IMF are still lowering forecast for the current FY18 after being in denial for over a year.

FY-17, Q2: 7.5
FY-17, Q3:7
FY-17, Q4: 6.1
FY-18, Q1: 5.7

That's what you call a trend. The 5.7 growth rate in the last reported quarter, could really be 4.7 or even 3.7 if Mr. Sinha, above, is correct.

3. Youth dividend has been turned on its head according to Sarkar's own numbers. In the same Al Jazeera report above:

View attachment 431285




One has to wonder with so many mistakes if they weren't done by design? IE force people to leave the cash in the banks and use digital money for transactions. Gov't takes control of your money and you lose the right to pay cash for a legitimate transaction. Take away more of the freedoms.



No worries. I trust your experience over sarkar's number after changes to the formulas anyways. Manipulation of numbers is worse is allegedly worse in the US. More above, the first point.



Exactly. some have said the informal sector created 80-90% of new jobs. With the surgical strike on Indian cash, the so called informal economy (Black market) was targeted according to one narrative. then it was the terrorists, then the rich and powerful and their hordes of cash and then to digitize and modernize.



According to the author of the original article (#1 above), it's not about just part of the picture but the whole picture that matters.



One month not a trend make! Wait for 2 quarter at the very least to see a quarter over quarter trend and more importantly, the impact on jobs and the overall GDP growth.



Mr. Vision, meet Mr. Math. after three years, no job growth and GDP, if it wasn't for the new formula, would be around 4%. Vote for him for another 5 years. Go right ahead make my day.

Everything all of you have told me above makes me more worried. Far from dissuading me, I am beginning to believe the author of the MoneyControl article.

LOL...Im not hear to persuade or deter you. You have already made up your mind. I am quite optimistic Modi is the best choice for India over any Indian political such as Rahul. He is putting in place the right building blocks for India's future.

Modi is A-OK ...

 

[Great Sachin]

Indian economy on 'very solid track': IMF chief Christine Lagarde

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/61087784.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

 

[Joe Shearer]

We don't have proper data outside the formal sector.

For example, I'm not sure if I'm in the formal or informal sector. I am self-employed and earn forex for the govt. If only paying taxes mean I am in the formal sector, then great, but I have no clue what it means, meaning it doesn't make a difference to me, but I'm pretty sure the govt has little to no data on me. So if I wasn't paying taxes, I would be considered an unemployed idiot as far as the govt is concerned. And there are thousands like me and thousands entering this market every day because of the internet. Many have taken up stock trading, cryptocurrency mining, then there's internet blogs, youtube etc. Many of these are informal and out of the ambit of govt studies, lots of tax evaders here.

You are in the formal sector; you pay taxes, and you stick to government regulations.

The major labour oriented regulations can be listed quickly; the full list of compliances was over 50, may be smaller now, but not much smaller. These include, but are not restricted to:

1. Minimum Wages Act;
2. Employment of Labour (Standing Orders) Act;
3. ESI;
4. PF, PPF;
5. Contract Labour Abolition Act (the most violated in practice);
6. Gratuity;
7. Bonus;

As I mentioned, there are about 50+ compliances to be met by an employer, more or less dependent on if the employment is more than 10 for enterprises using power, more than 20 for enterprises not using power; you fall under none of them being a lone individual.

The MUDRA scheme has helped in financing the informal sector as well. 22+ million beneficiaries since 2014. We have no data on what's happened here. Even a beauty parlour will have 3 or 4 hired hands.

Let's start with beauty parlours; as @jbgt90 will testify, I know a bit about these. Many beauty parlours in the suburbs of major Indian cities are single-woman operations and earn very small amounts. The three or four hired hands MAY earn/MAY be paid or may be told that they will remain unpaid in exchange for learning the skills (unless they have already got trained at Jawed Habib or some other training-friendly chain). Average wages are well below the Minimum Wages Act. A franchise costs between Rs. 15.0 L to Rs. 25.0 L, but to buy over an existing franchise may cost twice as much (at the levels of comfort and professional expertise that jbgt90 patronises; for the likes of me, those who get their haircuts at Ita-ly, sitting on an 'ita', the costs are, ahem, somewhat less. Even though I have more hair than jbgt90). As a result, most of these saloons upgraded to 'beauty parlours' are single-room, minimally equipped operations run by one woman.

For your information, most of these loans are squandered on consumption. Precious little goes into productive purchase, or salaries and wages, or promotion, or any business-linked activity. That is why the 'informal' sector, the 'Mahajan' sector, still flourishes; that is why the poor pay twice, or thrice as much as the middle class, who, in turn, pay far more than the rich; currently, rates are at 2% or 2.5% per month, 24 to 30% a year, with a lock-in of one year, and the chances of making major losses, physically, in case of default.

Let's not forget freelance and contract workers working for Indian employers. I wonder if the govt has any kind of real data on them either. The employers don't have to report them as far as I know.

Why don't you find out? The Indian employer is liable to pay these 'freelance' and 'contract workers' subject to deduction of tax at source; this is one reason for PAN and TAN for entities, there is supposed to be complete data on these workers, but there is actually no data. Instead of galumphing clumsily around this mine-field, with which as a party they are perfectly well aware, being supported throughout the country by the traders whom one matchless idiot has been attacking in every post, this government might have better tried to streamline the laws, and that might have led to less people dying of the consequences of such laws.

The fact is we have added $600B to the economy since 2014. There's no way jobs were not created if all other formal sectors are down. We would technically have been in recession if we were losing jobs.

Figure out where Mukesh Ambani's income is coming from, and how many TIMES more he earns than the next richest Indian.

@PDFChamp

I don't feel like responding to your post right now, as most of it is correct. There are one or two clarifications that would make it better aligned, but none to stop the show.

 

[thesolar65]

In fact, that is not entirely true. Demonetisation, implemented properly, might have had a far more positive impact. First, they didn't prepare; there were insufficient numbers of new notes, banks ran dry, ATMs ran dry (they are still erratic), some chucklehead designed new Rs. 2,000 notes that didn't fit ATM note trays and some other chuckleheads failed to spot that....we still haven't recovered easy and quick note availability. Those positioned to do that made electronic wallets and things and did very well. But a vast number of daily wage workers and roadside vendors, small shop owners, van operators ate very light for some months. The effect continues.

But implemented right, it would have forced big operators to get in line and cough up their 'cash', untaxed holdings, without hurting the little people.

GST was worse. People, other than large and medium corporations that could anticipate it, learn to cope with it, and train their staff and get their POS software changed in time, are still baffled and struggling. When this will settle down and allow manufacturing and trade to get back on the rails is not known; there are several guesses, your guess is as good as theirs.

But implemented right, it would have removed the cascading effect of indirect taxes and made trade and industry operations smoother and more efficient.

Defence limps along. All the corruption shown in defence procurement in the past had led to cumbersome laws, regulations and procedures being laid down to avoid obvious dodges; these are all haunting us now today. Earlier that horrible Antony, whose typical work posture was to hold his head in his hands, did NOTHING; now, the present administrators, the Defence Ministers, Parrikar and Jaitley, were floundering and wavering from policy to policy. Nothing was fixed, big vendors are already shy of quoting to India, major replenishments are not done.

Much of the pressure is self-created; the blame for what is going on is squarely at the doors of the Congress, and previous regimes. The blame is with the present people because they simply don't have the knowhow or the will to sort things out, take the right decisions.

The Railways have been so badly mishandled over decades that from being a showpiece in Asia it has become the Final Solution for the poor. One of the most remarkable things about India was the ability of the poor to travel thousands of kilometres between their homes and their places of work or places of employment seasonally. This led to an efficiency in the labour market that was good for the economy, and to preventing permanent migration and the creation of huge colonies of 'guest workers' (it also led to large numbers of Nepalese and Bangladeshis getting employment in India, but I don't see how that can be a bad thing). It is this mobility, in the literal sense, that may take a hit, if things don't improve very soon.

Again, the pressure is self-created, the NDA minister was one of the best in the cabinet (that's not saying much, but he was, for what it's worth), but simply couldn't cope.

You don't have to avoid what he's doing, simply avoid doing things secretively for the sake of the drama and the goodwill, and do the planning right. And certain institutions have to be given their dues even if it means drastic changes in their administration, direct or indirect.

And one thing he didn't expect at all....He thought that "All the Banking people are the Honest persons among present service holders".

They made mincemeat of demonitisation nd made Modi look like a fool. From RBI staff to clerks in Private Banks..... ALL.

 

[Joe Shearer]

And one thing he didn't expect at all....He thought that "All the Banking people are the Honest persons among present service holders".

They made mincemeat of demonitisation nd made Modi look like a fool. From RBI staff to clerks in Private Banks..... ALL.

Not to be ruled out, but if he thought that, and took a decision without any back-up, after his years of experience governing Gujarat, isn't he a little too naive to lead our nation?