Can India replace China as driver of world GDP growth over next 20 years?

[Shajida Khan]

OK, whether you have private press or not, bragging is bragging. Why you find it curious? Besides, it is not fair to blame all "bragging" on Indian media, here is why:

1. Who said that "in 5 years, the world will forget about Shanghai, the taking point will be Mumbai"?

The exact quote was :-
"I share this aspiration to transform Mumbai in the next five years in such a manner that people would forget about Shanghai" -- By Manmohan Singh in 2004
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Manmohan_Singh

You and Indian media are twisting the words. I don't know your prowess at English, but Aspiration and Prediction/Bragging have clear cut difference and it shows in the sentence.

2. Who said that "India will be a Superpower by 2012"?

This was Kalam, and he said it in a context and his exact words were :

"Though I have envisioned India to become a superpower by 2020, the attitude and the confidence of the youth, to conquer everything in the right spirit, would make the country a global leader and superpower within five years"

The context was that of achievements of ISRO in space technology.

Now compare both the statement which you are saying and what was actually said. Again 'would' and 'will' convey two different meaning and 'envisioned' has very different meaning than boasting 'will'. His statement was one meant to positively re-enforce young scientists at ISRO not to boast about India being a super power.

Actually in case of Space research, india is fairly close to achieve status of superpower. If not by 2020 then by 2025.

I can go into each of the statement that you have posted, however, the above two IMHO are enough to prove my point. In India we have a concept of freedom of thoughts and expression AND yes it means allowing media to twist the words and context. This is the price of freedom of speech. Anyways, Chinese have a long way to enjoy basic freedom of speech rights in China, so lack of understanding is well.. understandable

 

[rcrmj]

That I can not say but One thing I can say surely is that India shall be intellectual capital of the world in Next 2 decades. No multinational shall be able to work without R & D or development center in India. We shall have the biggest high skill manpower pool and maximum numbers of engineers. We shall be a space power and biggest manufacturer of Automobiles and Automobiles part.

We shall be undisputed leader in IT and related services.

to simpleton Indian it seems that success can just drop from the sky with a bit of wishing and delusion isnt it? India has no necessary fundermentals to become an intellectual capital, even we dare not to say that in 20 years time```innovation comes from a solid base which consists of strong industrial advancement, higly skilled labor, good quality education, pragmatic plan, firm execution, soical equality and an efficient government who is not grouped up by gangs and criminals```India has none

new low level...see who is bragging.

Still, in reality, a factor driven primitive society (WIPO's 2016's nations competitiveness report is aviable for download, they still categorise your country as a factor driven economy)```

 

[Surya 1]

http://www.ndtv.com/bangalore-news/...st-dynamic-city-hyderabad-is-number-5-1650340

This only going to get stronger as we have just begun. Once we are in top gear, you guys shall nowhere in the picture.

Innovation and diversity is in our blood. Our cloths differ through out the country so as the food. We have so many varieties in food cloths and so many other things that none you can ever imagine. We are all set to be a trend seter in innovation.

 

[rcrmj]

I always find it curious that Chinese think India is bragging. Perhaps more so because they are not aware of freedom of thought and expression. A lot of 'bragging' comes from Indian media. Indian media houses are privately owned one and they have their own interests and their own agenda in publishing whatever they publish. Unlike China where anything which is not blessed by CPC is never published, in India it is possible for different media and journalists to publish according to their own will.
.

you are not only like to brag but extreemly ignorant and delusional,
I traveled to your country many times on business, you think I dont know your so-called 'free' media? ```kid, your country is a feudal alike soceity and the so-called media doesnt do anything to help that, they are all mouthpiece of its relative party groups, sensational headline with minimum common sense writing is what they do all day long

http://www.ndtv.com/bangalore-news/...st-dynamic-city-hyderabad-is-number-5-1650340

This only going to get stronger as we have just begun. Once we are in top gear, you guys shall nowhere in the picture.

and this would happen in how many years, 3, 5, 10, 15 or XYZ years? :

 

[$@rJen]

An article seems incomplete. It only brings up the question but provides no answers whatsoever. Can India replace China? How? With what? We did what we did by following a clear strategy and we caught a historical break a.k.a. globalization. What will India do? Will call centers, H1b visa getters give India sustained high economic growth for 20+ years? Will India become an economic superpower without going through industrialization? I doubt anyone knows the answers. But I do know the Indians will never stop talking

because the title itself puts a question mark!!!

 

[Surya 1]

you are not only like to brag but extreemly ignorant and delusional,
I traveled to your country many times on business, you think I dont know your so-called 'free' media? ```kid, your country is a feudal alike soceity and the so-called media doesnt do anything to help that, they are all mouthpiece of its relative party groups, sensational headline with minimum common sense writing is what they do all day long


and this would happen in how many years, 3, 5, 10, 15 or XYZ years? :

As I said this is just a bigining. We have cities ranked No 1 and 5. In few years from now we shall have 8 out of 10.

 

[danger007]

to simpleton Indian it seems that success can just drop from the sky with a bit of wishing and delusion isnt it? India has no necessary fundermentals to become an intellectual capital, even we dare not to say that in 20 years time```innovation comes from a solid base which consists of strong industrial advancement, higly skilled labor, good quality education, pragmatic plan, firm execution, soical equality and an efficient government who is not grouped up by gangs and criminals```India has none


you joined PDF longer enough, just dig on previous posts regarding India```anyone with a brain can figure out the obvious patten of Indian's habit of bragging````because if those posts were true, India should be an ultra power by now``
but still, in reality, a factor driven primitive society (WIPO's 2016's nations competitiveness report is aviable for download, they still categorise your country as a factor driven economy)```

you are hitting new low level buddy... grow up...

 

[Sugarcane]

If India keep Modi ji at charge for 20 Years than India will be economic and military superpower after 20 years, otherwise no chance.

 

[The Eagle]

Members: Maintain civility and carry on your discussion within manners. Kindly avoid personal attacks and provocative remarks and stay on topic. In-case of any offending post/member, report the same without quoting back and move-on.

Thanks.

 

[Radio Mirchi]

It is extremely distasteful of you to insult another member's ability to use your master's language knowing that he cannot use his native language here. He apparently have to work harder in order to have a meaningful dialog here and we should appreciate that effort.
I think you deserve a ban.
@The Eagle

I think its very rude on your part to make such a comment. This forum is for the people who know english. Use of any other language is not permitted and moderators delete any posts in regional language. You and I are conversing in english because we both were once ruled by the British and they imposed the language on us. While we can reject it but we all find it convenient to continue with english.

 

[Surya 1]

If India keep Modi ji at charge for 20 Years than India will be economic and military superpower after 20 years, otherwise no chance.

Chacha Aap kabhi kabhi pate ki baat karte hai. I fully agree with you.

 

[Radio Mirchi]

China, and not emerging markets, has propelled World GDP in the last 20 years. Now, with the Chinese economy slowing down, will India take its place?

Manas Chakravarty

The share of emerging markets in World GDP has improved from 42.3% in 1996 to 58.1% in 2016, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook database. Photo: Abhijit Bhatlekar/Mint
The share of emerging and developing markets—153 of them—in world gross domestic product (GDP) has improved from 42.3% in 1996 to 58.1% in 2016, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook database. (See chart 1—The share of global output has been computed by taking GDP on a purchasing power parity basis).

This increase in share is a remarkable achievement and seems to be a ringing endorsement of the benefits of opening up the economy and of globalization. It’s a rise of 15.8 percentage points in the share of global output in the last 20 years. These years have been the heyday of globalization, which has led to a spurt in the growth of developing economies.

But the story gets much more nuanced. If we disaggregate the numbers, we find that China’s share of world output has gone up from 6.3% in 1996 to 17.8% in 2016 (See chart 2). In other words, the lion’s share, or 11.5 percentage points out of the 15.8 percentage point increase in the share of developing economies is due to the extraordinary growth of China alone. That means China contributed as much as 72.8% of the growth in the share of developing economies in world GDP in the last two decades. Remove China from the picture and the performance of the other developing economies gets toned down considerably.

Now let’s consider India (See chart 2), which also did well as it liberalized its economy, with its share of world GDP going up from 3.9% in 1996 to 7.2% in 2016, or by 3.3 percentage points. That means India and China together accounted for 14.8 (11.5+3.3) percentage points of the growth in the share of developing economies, out of the total increase in share of 15.8 percentage points. Putting it more starkly, China and India contributed 93.7% of the total increase in the share of developing countries in global output in the last 20 years.

In fact, developing countries other than in Asia saw their cumulative share of global GDP decline a wee bit from 26.6% in 1996 to 26.5% in 2016. Developing Asia, on the other hand, saw its share rise from 15.7% to 31.6% over the period (See chart 1). Were the last 20 years really a period of globalization, or would Asianization be a more fitting description? Put differently, practically the entire decrease in share of the advanced economies in world GDP in the last two decades has gone to developing Asia.

A look at regions other than Asia throws up a much more sober assessment of globalization. In the last 20 years, the share of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region went up a bit, from 7% in 1996 to 7.6%—just 60 basis points. Sub-Saharan Africa’s share also improved by 60 basis points, from 2.4% to 3%. The share of emerging Europe increased by a mere 20 basis points. The CIS countries’ share of global output was stagnant. But these small gains were offset by a decline in the share of Latin American developing nations’ share of world GDP from 9.4% to 7.9% in the last two decades.

A look at the figures for Mexico underlines the problem. Mexico’s share of world GDP declined from 2.3% in 1996 to 1.9% by 2016 (See chart 3). And this was despite the common border with the US and despite Nafta. With such advantages, Mexico should have become the poster boy of globalization. Alas, in Mexico’s case, the words of its late dictator Porfirio Diaz, ‘Poor Mexico, so far from God, so near to the United States,’ have rung more true. The country’s story shows that as economies become more developed, they have to develop new sources of competitiveness and move up the value chain or see other, lower-cost competitors steal their jobs and output.

The star of the last 20 years hasn’t really been emerging markets—it has been China. For us, the question is, now that Chinese growth has slowed down considerably, can the next couple of decades be India’s?

Manas Chakravarty looks at trends and issues in the financial markets.

I dont think so it will happen so soon. China is still an emerging market, it has not yet saturated like Japan, Europe and North America. Saturation will come perhaps after its per capita GDP is doubled. However it will now start slowing down. On the other hand, India will take some more time to be the lone driver of world economic growth.

 

[Zibago]

No

 

[Radio Mirchi]

If India keep Modi ji at charge for 20 Years than India will be economic and military superpower after 20 years, otherwise no chance.

If Modi continues for 20 years, it will be very difficult to distinguish between the people of India and China.

 

[sinait]

This forum is for the people who know english. Use of any other language is not permitted and moderators delete any posts in regional language. You and I are conversing in english because we both were once ruled by the British and they imposed the language on us. While we can reject it but we all find it convenient to continue with english.

True. So do you suggest those who are not schooled in English to spend a few years brushing up their English before coming back here. 50 years ago, I used to laugh at the Japanese instruction manuals in broken English. Apparently they do not need to be excellent in English to be a world 1st class country.
Would you insult a Japanese engineer for their lack of English proficiency? It took them around 3 years to speak some broken English not to mention written English with its queer grammar syntax.
Just focus on the topic on hand and refrain from insulting another member's command of the language. In fact I find many Indian members not particularly proficient in English, but that is not important as this is not a forum on the usage of English.
Appreciate that they are putting in effort trying to use a foreign language in order to participate in this discourse.

This forum is for the people who know english.

They know English, just not expertly so. I still buy Japanese devices even though their instruction manual is difficult to understand. Just need to use a bit of brain, which is needed for participating in this forum.