Bullet train will need 100 trips daily to be financially viable: Study

[commander jain]

AHMEDABAD: The proposed bullet train between Mumbai and Ahmedabad will have to ferry 88,000-118,000 passengers per day, or undertake 100 trips daily, for the Railways to keep it financially viable, according to a report by Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad ( IIM-A).

The report, titled, “Dedicated High Speed Railway (HSR) Networks in India: Issues in Development,” states that if the Railways set the ticket price at Rs 1500 for 300-km drive per person fifteen years after the operation, it will have to ferry between 88,000 and 110,000 passengers every day to ensure that it repays the loans with interest on time.

Japan has offered a concessional loan of Rs 97,636 crore to fund about 80 per cent of the project cost with a repayment period of 50 years beginning from the 16th year of operation at an interest rate of 0.1 per cent

For the remaining 20 per cent loan, the authors assume 8 per cent average rate of interest (on Rs 20,000 crore to be funded by Centre). Japan has offered a 15-year moratorium on loan, so revenue concerns for the Indian Railways will arise from the 16th year, the authors state in the paper

The total distance covered by the train will be 534 kilometres.

The paper has been jointly authored by faculty members G Raghuram, professor of the institute’s Public Systems Group, and Prashanth Udayakumar.

Fifteen years after the bullet train becomes operational, while the actual operating cost is not known, the paper assumes two scenarios by pegging operating cost at 20 per cent and 40 per cent of revenue.

“So if the Railways earn Rs 100 revenue, Rs 20 or Rs 40 will go for maintenance, and remaining surplus money will go for cash payment of loan with interest. Now, to cover the loan with operating cost in two scenarios, we consider passengers travelling an average 300 kilometres. In this case, we will need 88,000-118,000 passengers respectively for both the scenarios,” Raghuram said.

“Typically one train carries 800 passengers, so to carry 88,000 passengers daily, you will need to take a total 100 trips, or 50 trips each way. So, we need three trains every hour in each direction,” he said.
READ MORE ABOUT IT AT :> http://www.indiandaily.in/bullet-train-will-need-100-trips-daily-financially-viable-study/

 

[The BrOkEn HeArT]

I have heard somewhere that bullet train is gonna start in June between Mumbai to Delhi in less speed. It will take 7 hours to reach the destination. Is it true? @anant_s

 

[cloud_9]

LOL! So the most important bit of the viability report is out.I like how people were ignoring this fact in the previous thread.

 

[Sky lord]

You don't build infrastructure only to make a profit. The benefit is the catalytic effect on the economy of the region around it.

Otherwise no one would ever build non toll roads because these are all sunk costs. It would be economic foolishness to electrify rural areas because there is no way any if it will ever make a profit. We still do these things because of its transformative effects on society or business at large.

 

[Ryuzaki]

LOL! So the most important bit of the viability report is out.I like how people were ignoring this fact in the previous thread.

So by this logic,the govt. should not build roads in villages as it cannot be tolled.

I can bet the at the price will never be 1500 rs for a ticket.Also external revenues like advertisements have not been considered

 

[shree835]

100 Trip Daily...!!!!... Fat ke haath me aa jaega...

 

[Ryuzaki]

100 Trip Daily...!!!!... Fat ke haath me aa jaega...

In Japan,bullet trains run at a frequency of 3 minutes at peak times(like metro)

 

[anant_s]

I have heard somewhere that bullet train is gonna start in June between Mumbai to Delhi in less speed. It will take 7 hours to reach the destination. Is it true? @anant_s

Thats TALGO 250 train news. the trainset is being sent to India from Spain for trial runs of upto 200 kph on New Delhi Mumbai Route in 3-4 months from now. The trainset is sent free of cost by TALGO and if they perform well, India wil purchase these trains to run on existing Broad Gauge 25 kV Electrified sector. these trains donot require any modification on tracks to achieve 200 kph run.

Rlys gives nod for high speed Talgo train trial on 2 routes

New Delhi, March 1:
Indian Railway has given permission for the trial run of high speed Talgo trains on two routes, including Delhi-Mumbai section.

The trains manufactured by Spanish firm Talgo will undertake trial runs at speeds between 160 and 200 kmph on the existing tracks on two routes -- a route taken by Rajdhani Express and another non-Rajdhani route.

The Railway Board has given permission for trial on two routes and Talgo will conduct the time validation trial on Delhi-Mumbai corridor soon, said a senior Railway Ministry official.

While the Rajdhani route will be Delhi-Mumbai, non-Rajdhani route is yet to be decided.

Depending upon the results of the trial, the railways will consider introduction of high speed trains.

The Spanish train maker has offered to test run their lighter and faster trains free of cost.

“The permission letter to Talgo is being issued for importing the rake to India,” the official said.

The rake will be imported in knocked down condition and be assembled in India in May.

If the Talgo train runs at speeds varying between 160 and 200 kmph on the existing infrastructure without any upgrade, the travel time between Delhi and Mumbai is expected to be cut down to about 12 hours from the current 17 hours.

Besides reducing travel time, Talgo’s lighter trains consume 30 per cent less energy which will help railways reduce their power bill.

The official said barring minor changes, there will be no need for overhauling the tracks for the trial run.

Talgo trains are already running in several places in Asia and the US.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com...go-train-trial-on-2-routes/article8300645.ece
The train offered in TALGO 9 (derived from TALGO 250 series).
It is further proposed to manufacture these trains in India on success.

we had a thread going on this topic, unfortunately it was lost during attack on site.

 

[Ryuzaki]

will Shinkansen run on broad gauge?

 

[The BrOkEn HeArT]

Thats TALGO 250 train news. the trainset is being sent to India from Spain for trial runs of upto 200 kph on New Delhi Mumbai Route in 3-4 months from now. The trainset is sent free of cost by TALGO and if they perform well, India wil purchase these trains to run on existing Broad Gauge 25 kV Electrified sector. these trains donot require any modification on tracks to achieve 200 kph run.


http://www.thehindubusinessline.com...go-train-trial-on-2-routes/article8300645.ece
The train offered in TALGO 9 (derived from TALGO 250 series).
It is further proposed to manufacture these trains in India on success.

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we had a thread going on this topic, unfortunately it was lost during attack on site.

Thts a good news. Thanks for info sir

 

[anant_s]

will Shinkansen run on broad gauge?

No standard gauge only.
It will be an economically unviable option to qualify the whole dynamic system for a new track gauge (from vibration and dynamic stability point of view) for a relatively short network. Almost all 300+ kph (or 187mph+) HST network in world is on Standard gauge (1435 mm).

 

[C130]

wouldn't it be a lot cheaper just to widen the NH8 to 8 lanes and invest in self driving electric cars?

you could subsidize the cost of 10,000,000 Tesla 3. the economies of scale would drop the price to around $20,000 each. and subsidize half the cost.

10,000,000 Tesla 3 @$10,000 would cost the India government $100 billion dollars
widening the NH 8 between Mumbai and Ahmedabad highway assuming it's like $8 million per mile=$2.8 billion dollars and for the entire NH 8= $7 billion


all and all India could get a major boost in going all electric for the cost of $120 billion dollars

 

[anant_s]

wouldn't it be a lot cheaper just to widen the NH8 to 8 lanes

Yes, but land acquisition is a major headache in India for Infra projects.
Thanks to last government and its utopian vision, they formulated a land acquisition law that makes it literally hopeless to find land at competitive rates and in time. In an economy like ours, where Banking system is already slowly recovering from a situation of bad debts (or loan defaults), delay in project execution on account of delay in land acquisition has led to closure of several road building companies and strained finances on banks and Financial institutes lending money for such projects. One of the priorities of the incumbent government is to set this bill right, but alas opposition in upper house of Parliament, the issue is in limbo for far too long.

 

[Spectre]

Yes, but land acquisition is a major headache in India for Infra projects.
Thanks to last government and its utopian vision, they formulated a land acquisition law that makes it literally hopeless to find land at competitive rates and in time. In an economy like ours, where Banking system is already slowly recovering from a situation of bad debts (or loan defaults), delay in project execution on account of delay in land acquisition has led to closure of several road building companies and strained finances on banks and Financial institutes lending money for such projects. One of the priorities of the incumbent government is to set this bill right, but alas opposition in upper house of Parliament, the issue is in limbo for far too long.

The article very cleverly omits reference to the assumption regarding fare charged per km.

wouldn't it be a lot cheaper just to widen the NH8 to 8 lanes and invest in self driving electric cars?

you could subsidize the cost of 10,000,000 Tesla 3. the economies of scale would drop the price to around $20,000 each. and subsidize half the cost.

10,000,000 Tesla 3 @$10,000 would cost the India government $100 billion dollars
widening the NH 8 between Mumbai and Ahmedabad highway assuming it's like $8 million per mile=$2.8 billion dollars and for the entire NH 8= $7 billion


all and all India could get a major boost in going all electric for the cost of $120 billion dollars

Why should govt subsidize the lifestyle of the rich? it will get crucified if it does.

USD 10,000 comes out to be ~6.5 lakh rupees. A rational person will purchase car of amount 50% of his/her yearly salary at max. So this implies income of people who would buy subsidized Teslas would be 13 lakhs. This makes them top .5% of the rich in India

 

[anant_s]

The article very cleverly omits reference to the assumption regarding fare charged per km.

True!
But a logic is, that the fare should be less than air economy class or else you will not be able to attract passengers from other sector. In case of Ahmadabad Mumbai Sector, this value works out in region of Rs. 1800-2200. Taking a mean value of Rs. 2000 and average number of travelers as 100,000....

it will have to ferry between 88,000 and 110,000 passengers every day to ensure that it repays the loans with interest on time.

.... the revenue value works out to Rs. 100,000*2000 = Rs. 200, 00,00,000 (or Two hundred Crore daily).
Now at this point of time, this value looks impossible to achieve. So how railways plan to achieve this break even value, remains to be seen.