S-2
PROFESSIONAL
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2007
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I won't put a lot of time in here as I think you're correct- and not.
You are correct that I didn't account for internal opium and heroin consumption in Afghanistan and they do, indeed, possess addicts. We do, however, have 36% of Afghanistan's heroin unaccounted and INTERPOL did IDENTIFY Pakistan as one of THREE routes used.
If the other two take 64%, then you can very reasonably assume that the remaining 36% is divided by internal consumption and that which travels specifically to Pakistan and points beyond.
Next would be what pct. is allocated to internal consumption. I'll leave that to you. Doses per addict per day x 365 x total addicts = Nat'l consumption.
5% of their gross heroin production might be high but I'd be guessing about that or less.
I'd also still suggest that a goodly portion of that heroin sent to Iran goes by way of Baluchistan.
The problem is real enough and I've never hidden from it here. There's little doubt that between 2002 and 2006 opium again became a nat'l problem for Afghanistan. We know where, though, and it's clear that however huge, the problem is increasing associated with one specific region and one primary benefactor from the trade.
Our obligations are simple as a partner in this british-led effort. First, do not lose the gains made in the rest of the nation. Second, erode the huge base of cultivation that exists in Helmand.
While Oruzgan (9900 hectares), Farah (15,000), and Kandahar (14,000) all exceed, by themselves, the rest of the nation (8500 hectares), it is Helmand where the real issue persists. Were nothing to change at all in the aforementioned provinces and the rest of the nation, reducing Helmand to it's 2005 level of 29,000 would cut the nat'l level from 157,000 to 82,000-about half.
So I've allocated one-twentieth of Afghanistan's heroin to itself. 30-31% of it's dope is moving through Pakistan as of 2006. I suspect as cultivation has increasingly focused in the south, so too the emphasis on those routes vs the north for reasons of security. Opium traveling from southern Afghanistan through Tajikstan will carry a security-cost premium based on degrees of danger.
You are correct that I didn't account for internal opium and heroin consumption in Afghanistan and they do, indeed, possess addicts. We do, however, have 36% of Afghanistan's heroin unaccounted and INTERPOL did IDENTIFY Pakistan as one of THREE routes used.
If the other two take 64%, then you can very reasonably assume that the remaining 36% is divided by internal consumption and that which travels specifically to Pakistan and points beyond.
Next would be what pct. is allocated to internal consumption. I'll leave that to you. Doses per addict per day x 365 x total addicts = Nat'l consumption.
5% of their gross heroin production might be high but I'd be guessing about that or less.
I'd also still suggest that a goodly portion of that heroin sent to Iran goes by way of Baluchistan.
The problem is real enough and I've never hidden from it here. There's little doubt that between 2002 and 2006 opium again became a nat'l problem for Afghanistan. We know where, though, and it's clear that however huge, the problem is increasing associated with one specific region and one primary benefactor from the trade.
Our obligations are simple as a partner in this british-led effort. First, do not lose the gains made in the rest of the nation. Second, erode the huge base of cultivation that exists in Helmand.
While Oruzgan (9900 hectares), Farah (15,000), and Kandahar (14,000) all exceed, by themselves, the rest of the nation (8500 hectares), it is Helmand where the real issue persists. Were nothing to change at all in the aforementioned provinces and the rest of the nation, reducing Helmand to it's 2005 level of 29,000 would cut the nat'l level from 157,000 to 82,000-about half.
So I've allocated one-twentieth of Afghanistan's heroin to itself. 30-31% of it's dope is moving through Pakistan as of 2006. I suspect as cultivation has increasingly focused in the south, so too the emphasis on those routes vs the north for reasons of security. Opium traveling from southern Afghanistan through Tajikstan will carry a security-cost premium based on degrees of danger.