Brexit: EU leaders back Theresa May's deal in Brussels

[Cell_DbZ]

Big difference is that Spain is not that far from UK and so UK fighters can fight over Northern Spain with inflight refuelling.

The fighters reaching Spain that way would be limited at best, the Spanish will be able to deal with them as they have a sizeable air force themselves.
Having a naval assault will also be very difficult, at least in the earlier parts of the war. The Royal nuclear submarine fleet will eventually deal with the Spanish navy, however that won't really help getting Gibraltar back as the Spanish would have an easy time sustaining Gibraltar through land.

An interesting vidoe covering just this topic:

Obviously the Spanish won't ever be stupid enough for that, because other European countries won't be too happy about that, let alone the Usa.

Also Britain has nukes.

 

[Vergennes]

Not really.

Argentine air-force was pretty powerful relative to UK in 1982 as they had nearly 200 relatively modern combat jets.
It's Navy was also decent as they had an aircraft carrier, 2 modern Type-42 destroyers and a couple of modern diesel submarines.
Not as powerful relatively to UK as Spain is now but not too far from it.

Big difference is that Spain is not that far from UK and so UK fighters can fight over Northern Spain with inflight refuelling.
Royal Navy is now immensely more powerful with it's Astute SSNs and Type-45 destroyers. When the 2 Queen Elizabeth carriers are fully operational next decade then the UK will even be able to go and hit Spain from the South Coast.

Argentine air force was far from having being a top notch air force during the Falklands war. The only modern aircrafts they had were the Super-Étendard,but again were too few at that time. (Same goes for exocet missiles.) Other aircrafts of the Argentine air force were in poor conditions (such as the skyhawks). Aditionally,the Argentine air force was badly lacking refuelling capabilities. Despite all these facts,it was still able to inflict heavy losses to the British task force.

However it's no match at all to the UK as of today. Spain is another subject though.

 

[UKBengali]

The fighters reaching Spain that way would be limited at best, the Spanish will be able to deal with them as they have a sizeable air force themselves.
Having a naval assault will also be very difficult, at least in the earlier parts of the war. The Royal nuclear submarine fleet will eventually deal with the Spanish navy, however that won't really help getting Gibraltar back as the Spanish would have an easy time sustaining Gibraltar through land.

An interesting vidoe covering just this topic:

Obviously the Spanish won't ever be stupid enough for that, because other European countries won't be too happy about that, let alone the Usa.

Also Britain has nukes.

Not if the fighters are refuelled mid-way. UK has plenty of air-refuellers which can sit half-way between UK and Spain to refuel Euro-fighters. This will then allow the UK's Euro-fighters plenty of loiter time(2hrs+) over Northern Spain.
At this moment only the UK has the Meteor missile and so RAF Eurofighter's will have a big advantage against any Spanish fighter.
The biggest advantage that the UK has is the hundreds of cruise missiles it can launch at Spain and they can do some real damage.
UK can hit Spain from pretty much any direction while the Spanish can only defend. Once the 2 carriers are fully operational by the mid-2020s, Spain can be attacked from North and South by the UK in force.
Spain looks impressive on paper but it is a defensive military while the UK military is more offensive orientated.


@Vergennes

Well in 1982, France's most modern fighter was the Mirage III and Argentina had around 50 of the type and it's derivatives at the time.

 

[Cell_DbZ]

Not if the fighters are refuelled mid-way. UK has plenty of air-refuellers which can sit half-way between UK and Spain to refuel Euro-fighters.

The RAF does not even have close to the number of tankers needed to take the fight to Spain, you operate 9 A330 MRTT tankers, as they lack a refueling boom, you have a memorandum of understanding with the USAF for air refueling.
If we assume that the it is just UK vs Spain on their own, you don't have enough tankers that support your Eurofighters.
Remember that the Spanish operate a large air force and have decent air defence batteries; they will effectively deal with Eurofighters send their way through air refueling. So 'loitering' over Northern Spain is only going to deliver you lost aircraft for only moderate losses for the Spanish.

The UK will not be able to do sustained damage to Spanish airfields and SAM batteries, even if we count cruise missile strikes.

Remember that the objective is defending Gibraltar, Storm Shadow cruise have a 1000km range, forcing the UK way too close to the Spanish territory. Tomahakws have a longer range, but the UK can't launch them from the air. Their best bet is the Astute class SSN, which doesn't have any VLS, only giving it a limited cruise missile strike ability, furthermore, the Astute is one of the best Hunter-Killer SSN, so they will be going after the Spanish navy in the first place.

UK can hit Spain from pretty much any direction while the Spanish can only defend.

Indeed but in this scenario they don't need to do anything else. It's the UK that has to bring the fight to them and their capability is limited when they are on their own.

Once the 2 carriers are fully operational by the mid-2020s, Spain can be attacked from North and South by the UK in force.
Spain looks impressive on paper but it is a defensive military while the UK military is more offensive orientated.

We're assuming that the fight takes place today (or early 2019, when the UK leaves the EU), so you have to wait several years beefore you have your carriers in full operation. If we are going to assume what will be available in the near future, you have to count S-80 submarine for Spain too (if they solve current problems), Spain will also by then operate Juan Carlos class LHD with F-35B's and they will get new F110 frigates starting from 2023. Likewise the Royal navy will get extra Astute class submarines. There will be 24 F-35B's availble for carrier operations by 2023 for the Royal navy between the 2 carries, certainly a boost, but a game changer?

 

[UKBengali]

@Cell_DbZ

UK has hundreds of cruise missiles it can launch at Spanish air bases and SAM batteries. This will degrade these installations and make defence against UK harder.

Meteor will give RAF Eurofighters a big advantage and so we can expect most air to air engagements to favour the UK.

Although the official figure is for 24 F-35Bs to be available for carrier use by 2023, we know in reality every F-35 that the RN and RAF has in 2023 can be pretty much sent to war on the carriers. The number will be over 50 by then.

You do realise that the UK will likely just go and use it's naval might to invade the Canary Islands if Spain grabs Gibraltar?

 

[Cell_DbZ]

UK has hundreds of cruise missiles it can launch at Spanish air bases and SAM batteries. This will degrade these installations and make defence against UK harder.

All good and well that UK has many cruise missiles, but can you launch them in large numbers? You can't. The RAF has 9 tankers how many Eurofighters can it realistically support? The Eurofighter has a payload of 20.000 pounds and a Storm Shadow weights about 3000 pounds, meaning that a Eurofighter can carry a max of 6, but then you need to sacrifice: anti-air missiles, external fuel tanks and a targeting pod. without air to air missiles to defend yourself, you're going to be very vunerable to Spanish defenders.

Lets assume that a single of your tankers (which don't have a refueling boom) can support up to 4 Eurofighters (I think I am being generous here, but I lack the knowledge how air refueling operations work and how many aircraft can be sustained) a single Eurofighter can carry 6 Strom Shadow cruise missile, but then no AA missiles or anything else at all. So we have a total of 36 Eurogighters with each 6 missiles; that's 216 at the very most.

If somehow the RAF get close enough to Spain (1000km) and somehow are comepletely unopposed they can hit the Spanish fairly hard, but Syria's airbase got hit with 59 Tomahawks and they were flying the next day from that very same airbase.

The Spanish have considerable air defences, a considerable and fairly capable air force, so they will be able to deal losses to the RAF.

They also can do a very simple thing to keep their losses low; move their assets deeper in their territory. You'd be forced to come even closer to Spain, making interception for the Spanish even easier and thus losses for the RAF even larger.

The RAF will only harras Spain, dealing damage little by little. Britain wouldn't risk taking many losses for only modest gain. They could definitely pester Spain, but they won't be able to change the course of the war that way. (remember, the goal is to free Gibraltar in our scenario).

Meteor will give RAF Eurofighters a big advantage and so we can expect most air to air engagements to favour the UK.

Spain will also operate the meteor. Remember that Spain has SAM on their side and a numerical advantage

Although the official figure is for 24 F-35Bs to be available for carrier use by 2023, we know in reality every F-35 that the RN and RAF has in 2023 can be pretty much sent to war on the carriers. The number will be over 50 by then.

According to your governments Strategic defence and security review 24 would be available for carrier operations, I went with that, because that's pretty much the only thing I found, so I doubt the actual number will be over 50. It may be that 50 could be forced in carrier service, but even then it won't be a game changer. A serious advantage nontheless.

You do realise that the UK will likely just go and use it's naval might to invade the Canary Islands if Spain grabs Gibraltar?

Well of course in total war that would happen, our scenario is just Gibraltar however. Spain can take and keep Gibraltar, the British can certainly make it not worth it for the Spanish on their own. But a total war between them would be somuch more than just the military aspect (this is exaclty why it won't ever happen).

 

[UKBengali]

@Cell_DbZ

Why cannot the UK send Eurofighters loaded with air-to-air air missiles to protect the ones carrying storm Shadow?
Good if the effect of Storm Shadow is to move Spanish fighters further to the south as this will make it easier to bomb northern Spain using Tornado.
UK has 200 cruise missiles on submarines that it can fire at any target in Spain.
With Storm Shadow and Tomahawk, Spanish air force and SAMs will have nowhere to hide.

50 F-35Bs not a game changer? They are when part of the whole package.
With 2 carrier groups(50 F-35s) coming at Spain from the South, hundreds of Storm Shadows and Tomahawks able to hit targets in Spain, and RAF coming at Spain from the North, Spanish military will be severely depleted after a few months

 

[Tshering22]

The fighters reaching Spain that way would be limited at best, the Spanish will be able to deal with them as they have a sizeable air force themselves.
Having a naval assault will also be very difficult, at least in the earlier parts of the war. The Royal nuclear submarine fleet will eventually deal with the Spanish navy, however that won't really help getting Gibraltar back as the Spanish would have an easy time sustaining Gibraltar through land.

An interesting vidoe covering just this topic:

Obviously the Spanish won't ever be stupid enough for that, because other European countries won't be too happy about that, let alone the Usa.

Also Britain has nukes.

Britain will never use nukes even if it comes to losing Gibraltar in a hypothetical conflict.

Spain isn't a pushover and has a sizable combat force with similar experience as the UK (at least in NATO parlance).

While UK will have to run an expeditionary combat (which it is good at), this time it will be against a much more formidable foe, which has a home turf supply advantage.

EU countries won't do anything.

This won't be a full-blown war but a 3-5 day military conflict before UN/USA intervenes to propose a ceasefire.

 

[UKBengali]

Britain will never use nukes even if it comes to losing Gibraltar in a hypothetical conflict.

Spain isn't a pushover and has a sizable combat force with similar experience as the UK (at least in NATO parlance).

While UK will have to run an expeditionary combat (which it is good at), this time it will be against a much more formidable foe, which has a home turf supply advantage.

EU countries won't do anything.

This won't be a full-blown war but a 3-5 day military conflict before UN/USA intervenes to propose a ceasefire.

Yes - UK will slap Spain so hard and that is why they will never invade Gibraltar. All they can do is whine about it once in a while.
Annoys me they claim Gibraltar when it was legally handed to UK by treaty and they have possessions in North Africa they seized from Morocco by force.

 

[Vergennes]

@UKBengali @Cell_DbZ

Actually,the invasion of Gibraltar by Spain would be at worst a matter of few hours. The problem will be Britain's reponse. An hypohtetical fight between the two countries would very likely happen in the air and the seas. Gibraltar is in Spain's backyard. Problem is that Britain's forces (including many RN ships) are spread around the world,it would take time to build a task force.

The Royal Navy has the capacity to launch tomahawk strikes and damage vital Spain's and Spanish armed forces infrastructures,communications,command centers and air defence systems. (etc.) However,the RN doesn't have so many tomahawks. The other option would be the Royal Air Force and their storm shadows. Given the Royal Navy doesn't have (yet) aircraft carriers and F35s,it can't provide air power with its task force,that means long flying missions from the UK to Spain targets or Gibraltar targets,yet taking into account they will not be harassed by Spain's air defence systems and air force. (with Typhoons and F18s.)

The RN submarine force has the upper hand against Spain's,surface fleet is quite another subject. Britain would probably most likely have to land a high number of troops and materials (armored vehicles,tanks,artillery..),but the question is where ? Spain ? Gibratlar directly ? Given again that Britain's task force isn't harassed and heavily affected by Spain's armed forces. Projection of force is quite a difficult subject,lots of factors to be taken into account.

The above is just hypothetical,but in case of a conflict,what would be the reactions of NATO ? The US ? The EU ? In case of Gibraltar's invasion,will things be settled politically,both sides to calm down and retire or will the Brits take the fight against Spain. Hard to say.

 

[UKBengali]

@UKBengali @Cell_DbZ

Actually,the invasion of Gibraltar by Spain would be at worst a matter of few hours. The problem will be Britain's reponse. An hypohtetical fight between the two countries would very likely happen in the air and the seas. Gibraltar is in Spain's backyard. Problem is that Britain's forces (including many RN ships) are spread around the world,it would take time to build a task force.

The Royal Navy has the capacity to launch tomahawk strikes and damage vital Spain's and Spanish armed forces infrastructures,communications,command centers and air defence systems. (etc.) However,the RN doesn't have so many tomahawks. The other option would be the Royal Air Force and their storm shadows. Given the Royal Navy doesn't have (yet) aircraft carriers and F35s,it can't provide air power with its task force,that means long flying missions from the UK to Spain targets or Gibraltar targets,yet taking into account they will not be harassed by Spain's air defence systems and air force. (with Typhoons and F18s.)

The RN submarine force has the upper hand against Spain's,surface fleet is quite another subject. Britain would probably most likely have to land a high number of troops and materials (armored vehicles,tanks,artillery..),but the question is where ? Spain ? Gibratlar directly ? Given again that Britain's task force isn't harassed and heavily affected by Spain's armed forces. Projection of force is quite a difficult subject,lots of factors to be taken into account.

The above is just hypothetical,but in case of a conflict,what would be the reactions of NATO ? The US ? The EU ? In case of Gibraltar's invasion,will things be settled politically,both sides to calm down and retire or will the Brits take the fight against Spain. Hard to say.

Actually RN can already put a squadron of F-35s on it's one commissioned carrier.
Add in two Type-45 destroyers and two Type-23 frigates and Spanish fighters would fight it very risky to approach the CBG.
Just these 12 or so 5th gen planes can scare the pants out of the 4th gen Spanish airforce. Forget when 17 more recently ordered arrive.

Any UK government that gave up any sovereignty over Gibraltar would fall. UK would fight and bully Spain into submission if it had to.

PS - I am not even talking about BAe giving RAF the tools to degrade or disable the Eurofighter's radar that is designed and built by the UK.

 

[Cell_DbZ]

Why cannot the UK send Eurofighters loaded with air-to-air air missiles to protect the ones carrying storm Shadow?

I didn't even say that, I just said that the absolute maximum is 216, if you add AA missiles, you're going to lose Storm Shadows. I am pretty sure that even Eurofighters mainly carrying Strom Shadows will have 2 AA missiles to defend themselves, but they will have to sacrifice at least 1 Storm Shadow. (assuming that the Eurofighters wouldn't by carrying external fuel tanks, which they probably would). So a Eurofighter configured to strike would be carrying 4 Storm Shadows, while the other half ould be carrying more AA missiles, jamming pods, so they would at best carry 2. (assuming each group of 4 has 2 jets configured to strike Spain and 2 other to escort them) It is possible that less AA armed Eurofighters would be needed if they go in a large group.
I am aware that my knowledge is very limited on this matter.

The RAF would be lucky if they carry more than ~120 Storm Shadows if they use all their tankers in 1 go.
Remeber that 59 Tomahawks were just enough to temporary incapacitate a Syrian air base.

Spain would be able to take out a large portion of such an air group or at least force them away.

Good if the effect of Storm Shadow is to move Spanish fighters further to the south as this will make it easier to bomb northern Spain using Tornado.

Maybe so, you'll be able to damage northern Spain, but it won't get you Gibraltar back. Just because Spain would be moving deeper in their country doesn't mean they can't intercept your Tornadoes anymore. They are easier targets after all. Spain being able to move deeper into their country is a luxury.

UK has 200 cruise missiles on submarines that it can fire at any target in Spain.

Sadly for the UK, their submarines don't have any VLS. Launching those 200 cruise missiles will take a while. The Astute class has 6 tubes with stowage for 38 weapons, they also will by carring at least a few torpedoes, at least a pair of MOSS like systems (or more advanced anti-torpedo torpedo if the Royal Navy has them; information about such systems is scarce). So I would assume that an Astute submarine would be carrying 30 Tomahawks at one time and it will take a long time to launch them via your torpedo tubes. reloading such a torpedo tube takes many minutes. You have 3 Astute submarines thus 3*30=90 Add an other 3 Trafalgar submarines with 30 weapons in total (lets assume they carry about 22 Tomahawks) thus 22*3=66.

So if you somehow manage to get ALL of your submarines to attack at once you can lauch 156 Tomahawks in one (long) go.

We all know that the Royal navy couldn't, for one you have to deal with a fairly capable Spanish navy (they have 5 advanced frigates, another 6 older, but still capable frigates, a large Amphibious assault ship which can undertake anti-submarne ops, 3 older but still dangerous submarines. Secondly you need to get your assest to the Spanish theatre, which will take a while. Your astute submarines will be dealing with sinking the Spanish navy first, all the while dodging a number a Spanish MPA's

With Storm Shadow and Tomahawk, Spanish air force and SAMs will have nowhere to hide.

Your Strom Shadows have a limited range, Spain is large, forcing you to come closer to mainland Spain, leaving you a lot more vunerable to interception. You have plenty of missiles, but you can't launch them at once, not even close. Britain on it's own can only muster a limited strike force from the air, which will leave them outnumbered.

You will need to cripple the fairly capable Spanish defences first, which will take long and you'll take several losses as well.

50 F-35Bs not a game changer? They are when part of the whole package.

In the context of retaking Gibraltar they aren't. The UK will never be able to undertake large enough amphibious assault even if they have air superiority as the Spanish army is simply too large and will deal with the landing force fairly easily.

And now we are assuming they actually will reach Gibraltar.

Even a theoretical landing force in norther Spain will meet the same end.

50 F-35Bs not a game changer? They are when part of the whole package.
With 2 carrier groups(50 F-35s) coming at Spain from the South, hundreds of Storm Shadows and Tomahawks able to hit targets in Spain, and RAF coming at Spain from the North, Spanish military will be severely depleted after a few months

You are really underestimating the Spanish.

The Spanish have a large territory to move their assets around. I'll repeat for like the 5th time that Spain has a large and capable air force, with a decent navy to back that up, so it's not like they will allow you to just launch your missiles.

The RAF can only muster a limited number of fighters at best, while the Spanish have a large number to muster themselves.

Before you carries will be in position to send strikers to Spain, you will have to deal with their navy first. Same stroy here, the Royal navy will only be able to have a limited number, while the Spanish will have the vast majority available for defence.

'Few months'? A year at least, certainly with the limited number to UK can send Spain at a time.
It takes a few months to get your task force ready in the first place.

50 F-35Bs not a game changer? They are when part of the whole package.
With 2 carrier groups(50 F-35s) coming at Spain from the South,

2023. It takes until then you have your Strike force. we're assuming that the war would take place today (or early 2019, when Britain leaves). 4-5 years is quite the wait.

probably most likely have to land a high number of troops and materials (armored vehicles,tanks,artillery..),but the question is where ? Spain ? Gibratlar directly ? Given again that Britain's task force isn't harassed and heavily affected by Spain's armed forces. Projection of force is quite a difficult subject,lots of factors to be taken into account.

Sending a landing force (which would be very limited in Britains case) would be suicide against a large Spanish army. Sending a landing force is only possible when you have air superiority and with limited number Britain can send, I am not convinced they would ever achieve air superiority with the limited number they can send at 1 time.

The above is just hypothetical,but in case of a conflict,what would be the reactions of NATO ? The US ? The EU ? In case of Gibraltar's invasion,will things be settled politically,both sides to calm down and retire or will the Brits take the fight against Spain. Hard to say.

If Spain would ever be stupid enough to do that, then bye bye Spain. Only the economic reprecussions will cripple them, let alone a potential activation of article 5 by Britain. That's why they won't ever do that.

 

[UKBengali]

@Cell_DbZ

You think the British radar on Spanish Euro fighters will even work effectively if they fought the UK? lol

Six dozen F-18As will be mincemeat for RAF Euro fighters and RN F-35Bs.

 

[Cell_DbZ]

You think the British radar on Spanish Euro fighters will even work effectively if they fought the UK? lol

And why wouldn't they? Both countries operate the Eurofighter and both contries contribute to it. Spanish arms industry is also heavily intertwined with Airbus, which in turn delivers plenty of arms to UK. So the Spanish will probably have plenty of tricks to deal with the RAF Eurofighters.

I'm sure each party can screw each other that way as well, maybe the a bit harder than the other, but still.

RN F-35Bs.

As of now, you still don't operate any f-35B on your sole carrier as you are still inducting it and training with it. And even so 12 will not make a big inpact.
You could of course wait until 2023...

Oh and the Spanish still have Harriers.

Six dozen F-18As will be mincemeat for RAF Euro fighters

F-18's are capable fighters too and if you magically manage to take out every single Typhoon by your tricks, without shooting them down, the F-18's would still outnumber you for a while.

 

[waz]

We outgun the Spanish forces both in terms of quantity and quality. How can a nation with an industrial capability far below that of the UK and with a declining population hope to sustain war with the UK? The classic 'boxing' in strategy can be used via Gibraltar and losses on any scale will lead to a crippling of the Spanish ability to fight, particularly if they happen at sea. Oh speaking about the sea we all know what happens when they try to start a fight on water....
Spain should shut up and forget about Gibraltar now and forever.