Infinite Sapience
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Well, you need to read how the US funds are reaching the Taliban hands, plus you also need to read how the drug trade is filling the coffers of the Taliban and then the money sent to them from abroad through the AQ guys.
And had Pakistan been supplying them weapons, all the official land routes are under the control of Afghanistan forces and US/NATO forces, they can off course detect them if they want, plus they have the best surveillance equipment, if they had wanted, they can off course provide evidence to Pakistan in the form of video or even attack those convoys from air, through ambushes etc etc and implicate Pakistan.
Also, you need to see the Iran supplying weapons to Taliban stories and see what is in them.
International arms dealers have no nationality, they damn care who gets killed from their weapons, even if they are their own countrymen, as long as they have money. And Afghan Taliban are making plenty of money from within Afghanistan to beg us to give them support.
I am for one glad that, we are talking outside the realm of proponderous conspiracy theories and in the realm of reasonable conspiracy theories.(if there exist such a jargon)
You have dropped many hints on who might be responsible, namely:
Illicit drug trade, Al-Qaeda, Iran, International arm dealers, US.
Barring US every other supplier is equally liable to supplying both AT and TTP.
Terminology which stands out in Illicit drug trade is the word trade.
As we already know majority of Afghan trade takes place through Pakistan.
International arms dealers, though it sounds reminiscent of Lord of War movie, but still is plausible option, however it can again be pointed out that majority of consignments(weapons or normal) go from karachi through Pakistani tribal areas to Afghanistan.
Iran might be supplying out of its spite for US, but Shia Iran has serious ideology differences from Sunni Taliban, even in the day when Taliban ruled Afghanistan, Iran never gave it acceptance to Taliban regime. To me it sounds more like what Neocons would rather want to believe, as a means to support their ends in Iran.