Markus
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@Markus,
I don't think you and I are in contradiction here--basically saying the same things, I think.
But BLA and indeed Baluch nationalism is a lost cause. Geography and demographics have decided their fate. At most some funding and 'safe havens' can be found in/through Afghanistan but that too can end. The Pashtuns in Baluchistan are a large percentage of the population and are very strong in Quetta--the only notable city in Baluchistan. The ethnic groups along the thinly-populated, but strategic coastline are not necessarily alienated from Pakistan.
The Baluch nationalists represent a backward, whiny ethnic group which has been complaining from day one. They will remain an irritant. Nothing more. Just like India's Sikh nationalism was a lost cause because of demographics so is the Baluch nationalist cause. That we even talk of the Baluch nationalism so much these days is because of the perceived/real support from NATO in Afghanistan...and that can change after 2014.
Well, BLA may not be too strong but I believe they are enough in numbers to keep registering tactical attacks on Pakistani establishment every now and then. But situation inside Pakistan is more than just BLA and that's where everything stats getting complicated.
The solution I believe lies in development of the affected areas, more state attention towards their grievances.
This topic is really vast and beyond the scope of this thread, so I will leave it to that.
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