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Births in China Fall to Lowest Level in Nearly Six Decades

Excellent news for the United States in the long term great power competition between the US and China.

By mid to late century China will be an old and dying country with a much lower growth rate. Today China is 4 times the size of the US population. By 2100 it will likely only be twice the size and old at that. Even if China were to surpass US GDP in the short term, it’s likely the US will surpass China again in the second half of the century. The long term advantage remains with the United States.
By which time US will be a fractured society with whites becoming a minority while blacks and latinos in the majority. I look forward to the weekly racial riots and Mexican flag flying everywhere.
 
Excellent news for the United States in the long term great power competition between the US and China.

By mid to late century China will be an old and dying country with a much lower growth rate. Today China is 4 times the size of the US population. By 2100 it will likely only be twice the size and old at that. Even if China were to surpass US GDP in the short term, it’s likely the US will surpass China again in the second half of the century. The long term advantage remains with the United States.
CN already falled into middle income trap like Lybia due to trade war ( GDP is 10,000usd like Lybia while can not sell any high tech product cos Hwei is dead, Xiaomi could be next if no Google support ).

CN living cost when having a child is at least 800 usd while CN bosses refuse to pay 1,000 usd/month for Cnese employee, instead they( bosses) r using foreign workers like in Lybia and only pay 350-450usd/month instead.

Its too hard to find job wt salary 1,000usd/month in CN now, thats why Cnese dont wanna have babies, and what happen next ? Cnese may start the color revolt like in Lybia cos they cant survive when bosses only pay 350usd while living cost is 800 usd :pop:
 
If you don't have kids,

Everybody gets old

And their are not enough young people to look after the old
 
Global population numbers are unsustainable. Population control in the 3rd world is needed.
 
If you don't have kids,

Everybody gets old

And their are not enough young people to look after the old
CN is just like Lybia when GDP per cpt reached 10,000 usd.

How can u have kids when the bosses only pay u 350usd but living cost is 800 usd/month ??

The only thing is waiting for Cnese is color revolt like in Lybia .
 
CN is just like Lybia when GDP per cpt reached 10,000 usd.

How can u have kids when the bosses only pay u 350usd but living cost is 800 usd/month ??

The only thing is waiting for Cnese is color revolt like in Lybia .

Absolutely

And this is where the"crises" comes in

All the current generation of Chinese will become old

But the new generation of Chinese will be limited in number
So there will be numerous older Chinese left to be supported by the young generation who will be under incredible pressure

Options are migrants or increase birthrate and it's already too late
 
In capitalist world, every individuals care for themselves. In Socialist world, the government will take care for everyone, especially the low income group.

Though admittedly, China now a days is far too capitalist than being socialist. May be if they go back to the old socialist system where medical treatments, educations and all basic needs can be provided free or at a token fee to those who qualify, then the problem of providing the needs of old people can be taken care of.

Shrinking workforce can be replaced by robots and AI, which in fact is already happening. Higher per capital income per household should be able to pay for the elders' expenses, and if they can't the socialist care system should step in to help.

IMO, rapid increase in older people is a phenomenon caused by baby booming in early decades as well as the one child policy. After a few generations a balance will be restores where the gaps between death rates and birth rates will be close to near zero. Then the age groups will be quite similar to each others in population head counts.

Wealthy nations can weather the rapid aging process fairly well, poor nations will have big problems.

Sonner or later, every country that is reaching a developed nation status will face rapid aging populations.

Screenshot (1676).png
 
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40 year old one child policy seems to have created a long term social demographic imbalance in China. Remains to be seen if the party can correct its past mistake or maybe it's too late
 
40 year old one child policy seems to have created a long term social demographic imbalance in China. Remains to be seen if the party can correct its past mistake or maybe it's too late
Too late, with local "rebalance" Except some sort of "Forced" actions... and "Child Welfare support" isn't gonna change that much... Since it's an intergenerational issue.
An Educational work is needed, but such "Rework" mostly take root in the wide societal dynamic... and therefore Decades and Decades is needed... (if no war/conflict arise in the meantime).

The best and faster way to "rebalance" is the immigration process... as a stopgap during the period of "Social Reworking"
 
Too late, with local "rebalance" Except some sort of "Forced" actions... and "Child Welfare support" isn't gonna change that much... Since it's an intergenerational issue.
An Educational work is needed, but such "Rework" mostly take root in the wide societal dynamic... and therefore Decades and Decades is needed... (if no war/conflict arise in the meantime).

The best and faster way to "rebalance" is the immigration process... as a stopgap during the period of "Social Reworking"
Yes too late
China now has 33 million more men than women. Soon 50 million than 100 million more men. Can you imagine? They will flood Vietnam and other countries desperate looking for a women!
 
Yes too late
China now has 33 million more men than women. Soon 50 million than 100 million more men. Can you imagine? They will flood Vietnam and other countries desperate looking for a women!
Thats so wrong, Cnese guys dont even have any kid now cos living cost is too high while its too hard to get job wt 1,000usd/month.

Cnese now is same like Jpnese, dotn like kids, just wanna live alone till dead.
 
Excellent news for the United States in the long term great power competition between the US and China.

By mid to late century China will be an old and dying country with a much lower growth rate. Today China is 4 times the size of the US population. By 2100 it will likely only be twice the size and old at that. Even if China were to surpass US GDP in the short term, it’s likely the US will surpass China again in the second half of the century. The long term advantage remains with the United States.
The glue is getting stronger with this one. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
 
Births in China Fall to Lowest Level in Nearly Six Decades
In a country where most older adults rely heavily on their families, the continuing drop in births could have a seismic effect in the decades to come.



17china-births1-articleLarge-v2.jpg

17china-births1-articleLarge-v2.jpg

Officials hoped that a reversal of China’s one-child policy would significantly raise the birthrate, but that has not materialized.Credit...Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

By Sui-Lee Wee and Steven Lee Myers

  • Jan. 16, 2020
BEIJING — The number of babies born in China last year fell to a nearly six-decade low, exacerbating a looming demographic crisis that is set to reshape the world’s most populous nation and threaten its economic vitality.

About 14.6 million babies were born in China in 2019, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That was a nearly 4 percent fall from the previous year, and the lowest official number of births in China since 1961, the last year of a widespread famine in which millions of people starved to death. That year, only 11.8 million babies were born.

Births in China have now fallen for three years in a row. They had risen slightly in 2016, a year after the government ended its one-child policy and allowed couples to have two children, a shift that officials hoped would drive a sustained increase in the number of newborns. But that has not materialized.

Experts say the slowdown is rooted in several trends, including the rise of women in the work force who are educated and don’t see marriage as necessary to achieving financial security, at least for themselves. For Chinese couples, many cannot afford to have children as living costs increase and their jobs demand more time and energy. And attitudes have shifted.

Continue reading the main story

“It’s a society where nobody wants to get married and people can’t afford to have children,” said Wang Feng, a professor of sociology at the University of California, Irvine. “On a deeper level, you would have to think about what kind of society China will become, not just demographically, but socially.”

Eno Zhang, a 37-year-old engineer in a tech company in Beijing, said he had argued with his parents for 10 years about his decision not to have children. They have since given up, he said.


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“I value my spiritual life and hobbies,” Mr. Zhang said. “Children will consume too much of my energy. This is something I cannot accept.”

The birthrate in China fell to 10.48 per thousand last year, the lowest since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949, a decline that has important implications for the country’s economy and labor pool. If birthrates continue to fall while life expectancy increases, there will not be enough young people to support the economy and the elderly, the fastest-growing segment of the population.

That will put pressure on the country’s underfunded pension systems, its overcrowded hospitals, and companies.

While many countries are struggling with low fertility rates and aging populations, these issues are even more pressing in China, because the country’s underdeveloped social safety net means that most older adults rely heavily on their families to pay for health care, retirement and other expenses. Many young married couples are expected to shoulder the burden of taking care of their parents, in-laws and grandparents, without the support of siblings.

risks running out of money by 2035 because of a decline in the number of workers, according to research commissioned by the government-backed Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Despite the looming demographic crisis, the government has continued to restrict the number of children couples may have. For nearly three decades, the ruling Communist Party sought to slow population growth by limiting most couples to one child and forcing many women to undergo abortions and sterilizations.

In 2015, alarmed by the slump in births, it increased that limit to two children, but it still punishes couples who exceed the restrictions. The authorities also fine single women who bear children, and bars them from using reproductive technologies like freezing their eggs.

The government is now trying to encourage people to have babies, but it is a hard sell.

The rising costs of education, housing and medical care are an obstacle. More women are getting university degrees and are reluctant to interrupt their careers. Some among the current generation of women of childbearing age, themselves the product of the “one child” policy, don’t see what the fuss about offspring is all about.

Dong Chang, a 28-year-old administrative employee at a dentist’s clinic in Beijing, said millennial like her enjoyed spending on themselves without batting an eyelid and would find it hard to sacrifice their wants for a child.
“We are all only children, and to be honest, a little selfish,” she said. “How can I raise a child when I’m still a child myself? And take care of him and feed him at midnight?”

Ms. Dong said that she was living with her boyfriend but that they had decided to not get married for the time being because they didn’t want their parents to hound them about having children.

Melody Lin, a 26-year-old worker at a nonprofit, said she couldn’t think of a reason to have a child. She said she had thought about conforming to societal norms and starting a family but decided against it after reading arguments that not all women need to have children.

“My parents think that I’m still young and will change my mind when I get older, but I think it’s unlikely,” she said.

China’s total fertility rate — an estimate of the number of babies a woman would have over her lifetime — has fallen to 1.6 children per woman, and for years has generally remained below the “replacement” level of 2.1. That means China could soon see a shrinking population and a work force too small to support its pensioners.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said last year that China’s population contraction would begin in 2027. Others believe it will come sooner or has already begun. The accuracy and completeness of China’s population figures, like other sensitive statistics, have been questioned for years, making exact projections and comparisons difficult.

Cai Yong, an associate professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina, said he expected the low fertility rate to continue for at least a decade.



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/business/china-births.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Thank China for another great gift to human kind. Stupid liberals are still all for breeding like rabbits, and countries who buy into their propaganda will die in exhaust, because of lacking necessary resources to maintain a healthy population.

Just read an article today on Spiegel.de about dramatic living conditions in Lake Chad. The real reason for this hopeless situation is over-population, which can partly blamed for the Western liberal' rhetoric.

https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...arming-a-6b6965d4-f122-45f8-a146-d7a5f222a1dd

Very likely these Sahel countries also wanted the so-called "demographic dividend" just like India to become tomorrow superpowers.
 

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