Bihar election verdict and its implications in Indian politics

[deckingraj]

@deckingraj 2019 is far away, there is little to no point in speculating about it. A million things can happen between now and 2019, and 2004 repeat is impossible, the political reality in the country is different simply because congress is not a National party anymore.

No my friend...It is not too late...think about it....18 months and when it comes to major economic reforms we are still waiting...Bihar debacle is not going to help....For development engine to kick you need to start moving now...however given the opposition has found a new life please tell me how will things move....

BJP need to course correct now....no??

One can start writing epitaph of Modi after Bihar elections but the fact is that Modi is NO VAJPAYEE, no way he is losing power in just 5 years. BJP may have lost Delhi & Bihar but there is still no national alternative to Modi in 2019.

A person heading the central government has many OPTIONS (which i would not like to discuss ) to remain in power until & unless people are totally against him & his Government.

Think about it....wasn't the same confidence we had for Bihar?? It was very important for country sake but electorate didn't gave two hoots about it....BJP need to chose one path and go full bang...right now its is development/hindutva and both seems half hearted....

 

[Rau]

For Bihar

• Nitish 2 was worst than Nitish 1
• Nitish 3 is going to be even bad because what do you expect when corrupts like Lalu are more of a Kingmaker...??
• Bihar and UP are two states that bring whole of India down...I mean most of the states are progressive but overall numbers are dented by these two states big time...I am not seeing much changing for next 5 years

3. I am dam sure this govt. cant run more than 2 years ...ek mayan me do talwar nahi rah sakati....
4. There will be more outflow of Bihari to other state like Maharashtra, Gujarat, and more local outrage they has to face in future ...
5. This election proves that nothing can beat cast voting in Bihar for atleast next three (or may be permanently) election same as no one will find word "Development " in next election.


Bihar will remain the darkest spot in India's growth story....

 

[deckingraj]

3. I am dam sure this govt. cant run more than 2 years ...ek mayan me do talwar nahi rah sakati....
4. There will be more outflow of Bihari to other state like Maharashtra, Gujarat, and more local outrage they has to face in future ...
5. This election proves that nothing can beat cast voting in Bihar for atleast next three (or may be permanently) election same as no one will find word "Development " in next election.


Bihar will remain the darkest spot in India's growth story....

Agreed...if in 2015 youth in Bihar is voting on cast pattern then what's the hope??

 

[Star Wars]

No my friend...It is not too late...think about it....18 months and when it comes to major economic reforms we are still waiting...Bihar debacle is not going to help....For development engine to kick you need to start moving now...however given the opposition has found a new life please tell me how will things move....
.

A lot of reforms are already being carried out. GST and land billare not the only reforms. There are dozens of other reforms being done through executive decision etc.. A lot of development is going on, only problem is people are not aware of it. In 18 months he has done a lot of work than 5 years of congress Rule...

 

[dray]

One can start writing epitaph of Modi after Bihar elections but the fact is that Modi is NO VAJPAYEE, no way he is losing power in just 5 years. BJP may have lost Delhi & Bihar but there is still no national alternative to Modi in 2019.

A person heading the central government has many OPTIONS (which i would not like to discuss ) to remain in power until & unless people are totally against him & his Government.

I didn't write an epitaph of Modi though. And Congress and most of the regional parties are feeling threatened by the rise of BJP, besides, joining an alliance against Modi itself is a certificate of secularism that would help the alliance partners to gain some secular and minority votes automatically...there are enough reasons for the opposition parties to form a large alliance under UPA to defeat BJP. Even Modi is not invincible.

Remember that in 2014 election BJP was in its best days and got 31% vote share, and Congress with zero credibility at that point got 19.3% vote share. A shift of 5% votes from BJP to Congress can reverse the situation, Congress also has greater acceptance among the regional parties for alliance...Modi need to deliver big on governance and reforms.

 

[Star Wars]

Remember that in 2014 election BJP was in its best days and got 31% vote share, and Congress with zero credibility at that point got 19.3% vote share. A shift of 5% votes from BJP to Congress can reverse the situation, Congress also has greater acceptance among the regional parties for alliance...Modi need to deliver big on governance and reforms.

Governance and reform has little role to play in Bihar elections and keep in mind BJP only fought 150 of the 243 seats so the Vote shares are also likely to decrease. IN reality vote shares of BJP has not decreased at all.

 

[deckingraj]

A lot of reforms are already being carried out. GST and land billare not the only reforms. There are dozens of other reforms being done through executive decision etc.. A lot of development is going on, only problem is people are not aware of it. In 18 months he has done a lot of work than 5 years of congress Rule...

The very first thing we need to do is stop quoting congress all the time.....Its been 18 months and now we need to start looking at BJP....they won because congress was no good, right?? You voted, i voted for them because they were the best alternative....
Now coming to lot of reforms....Let's not fool ourselves...India needs big ticket reforms and LAB and GST are the most awaited one's. They have already put LAB on the backburner....This happened when BJP had the backing of a grand victory not only in LS but states after states...right? And now they have lost Delhi and Bihar both badly...Opposition has smelled the blood....Under these circumstances please suggest how do you expect them to move on big ticket items??

Let me ask you a simple question....How long you think effects will begin to show once i pass LAB let's say today?? Similarly GST will be delayed by opposition on one pretext or another....no???

 

[dray]

3. I am dam sure this govt. cant run more than 2 years ...ek mayan me do talwar nahi rah sakati....
4. There will be more outflow of Bihari to other state like Maharashtra, Gujarat, and more local outrage they has to face in future ...
5. This election proves that nothing can beat cast voting in Bihar for atleast next three (or may be permanently) election same as no one will find word "Development " in next election.


Bihar will remain the darkest spot in India's growth story....

Check the image in the OP, all the parties more or less got their core votes only...the pre-poll alliance and seat sharing of Nitish-Lalu-Cong made the difference. BJP lost Delhi because Congress gave away their votes to AAP in an unofficial alliance to spite BJP, otherwise BJP's vote share was intact. That's the biggest threat for BJP.

A lot of reforms are already being carried out. GST and land billare not the only reforms. There are dozens of other reforms being done through executive decision etc.. A lot of development is going on, only problem is people are not aware of it. In 18 months he has done a lot of work than 5 years of congress Rule...

Course correction and future strategies for BJP:

1. BJP has won the election with the promise of development and good clean governance, in other words, Congress has lost the election because of poor governance and corruption. Development comes from reform, keep focused on that...BJP government has done well compared to the previous one, but almost anything compared to the previous government would look better, that is clearly not enough. Most of the work so far was on process improvement, not on core reforms and policy formations. Performance is the key for any government, you deliver well and people will forgive & forget your small mistakes...you don't deliver, and your small mistakes will be perceived as Himalayan blunders. Modi has already lost some crucial time, and reforms take time to show results on the ground...Modi need to step up on the accelerator of reforms.

 

[Star Wars]

The very first thing we need to do is stop quoting congress all the time.....Its been 18 months and now we need to start looking at BJP....they won because congress was no good, right?? You voted, i voted for them because they were the best alternative....

@Rain Man One has to make a comparison to measure development and progress. Otherwise how will you know how much is good or not enough ? People are asking for more and more and more, but does anyone really know how much is good enough ? Am sorry but it personally feel some Right Wingers are asking for the impossible. We are witnessing pace of development which was not witnessed even during ABV.. But still people(not pdf) claim "Nothing done by Modi", "Modi wasting Mandate".

Now coming to lot of reforms....Let's not fool ourselves...India needs big ticket reforms and LAB and GST are the most awaited one's. They have already put LAB on the backburner....This happened when BJP had the backing of a grand victory not only in LS but states after states...right? And now they have lost Delhi and Bihar both badly...Opposition has smelled the blood....Under these circumstances please suggest how do you expect them to move on big ticket items??

Let me ask you a simple question....How long you think effects will begin to show once i pass LAB let's say today?? Similarly GST will be delayed by opposition on one pretext or another....no???

LAB will be done in states, Each state will pass its own land bill as per its own requirements. Several states have already passed the labor laws and reforms are going on. GST is important and hopefully it will be passed by hook or by crook, either in this year or the next. LAB only make land acquisition easier and simpler, it does not mean 0 development takes place until then. Even now Manufacturing plants are being announced in different states all over the country..

 

[Rau]

Check the image in the OP, all the parties more or less got their core votes only...the pre-poll alliance and seat sharing Nitish-Lalu-Cong made the difference. That's the biggest threat for BJP.

Corrected : That's the biggest threat for Indian Democracy.... (even in 2015 voting done purely on cast basis, in other state is also done on cast basis but not scale of Bihar.)
noted point is that winning party nowhere mention about development , social responsibility still they won, then why should elected govt. will do anything on useless thing like development when they know that without it still get assured next term.....
they just had to put some reservation card and huuuuaaa next term will waiting for them.

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Check the image in the OP, all the parties more or less got their core votes only...the pre-poll alliance and seat sharing of Nitish-Lalu-Cong made the difference. BJP lost Delhi because Congress gave away their votes to AAP in an unofficial alliance to spite BJP, otherwise BJP's vote share was intact. That's the biggest threat for BJP.

True. BJP is not losing. The others are just uniting better. Which is disastrous.

I will reply well tomorrow evening.

 

[dray]

@Rain Man One has to make a comparison to measure development and progress. Otherwise how will you know how much is good or not enough ? People are asking for more and more and more, but does anyone really know how much is good enough ? Am sorry but it personally feel some Right Wingers are asking for the impossible. We are witnessing pace of development which was not witnessed even during ABV.. But still people(not pdf) claim "Nothing done by Modi", "Modi wasting Mandate".

Modi probably did as much as he could do under the given circumstances, but it is also true that Congress has greater acceptability among the regional political parties to form alliance (check point-5 under 'course correction'), a sterling performance in the centre is the only weapon in the hands of BJP...so sky is the limit here.

Corrected : That's the biggest threat for Indian Democracy.... (even in 2015 voting done purely on cast basis, in other state is also done on cast basis but not scale of Bihar.)
noted point is that winning party nowhere mention about development , social responsibility still they won, then why should elected govt. will do anything on useless thing like development when they know that without it still get assured next term.....
they just had to put some reservation card and huuuuaaa next term will waiting for them.

So what should BJP do? Hang their boots and go home?

 

[Star Wars]

Modi did as much as he could do under the given circumstances, but it is also true that Congress has greater acceptability among the regional political parties to form alliance (check point-5 under 'course correction'), a sterling performance in the centre is the only weapon in the hands of BJP...so sky is the limit here.

Depends on which regional alliance, Jaya, Naveen and CBN is most likely to go with NDA

 

[deckingraj]

LAB will be done in states, Each state will pass its own land bill as per its own requirements. Several states have already passed the labor laws and reforms are going on. GST is important and hopefully it will be passed by hook or by crook, either in this year or the next. LAB only make land acquisition easier and simpler, it does not mean 0 development takes place till then...

Question is why?? You are not getting the gist of my post then....shed away emotions if you have any and think practically because investors are not gonna come unless something concrete is there...

Where did i say no big budget reforms is equal to 0 development?? however is it enough??...When Modi went to every nook and corner of the world telling everyone that how ease of business will be a reality does he tell them that just rely on states for their specific laws?? If states are good enough to enact laws then what is the need of central laws? Central laws are important because they provide directions...States within the ambit of law can bring in few changes but that's about it....I can't think of putting in a project which is going to spread in multiple states because i have no idea what the heck will they do...you see the problem??

My point is simple - if they can't pass tough laws during their prime what is the probability they will do when they have already got some big jolts?? And LAB is not the only tough law...labor law is the another need of the hour....how on this earth you expect small scale industry to grow if you don't have a practical robust labor law...I can go on and on...but the basic point if so far when it comes to bringing in tough laws BJP has disappointed...Everyone was thinking that perhaps after Bihar they will go back to business with full vengeance...and with that debacle everyone is worried what direction this govt. will go...All out development or go easy on reforms!!

 

[vayuputhra]

Now good luck to biharis, as they have voted, for their progress, and nitish is going to make bimaru Bihar into fast developing states like tamilnadu, gujarat , haryana, panjab, karnataka, and stay in your state, don't go to other states and spread your lalu ideas every where and spoil the country, and go to your state, stop coming to Bangalore to do manual jobs like loading and unloading for a pittance, selling panipoori, and mausambi juice, you people elect useless people, and run away from your state to beg for jobs all over India, when a local labourer asks about 150 rs for loading a truck these bihari beggers take just 60 rs to do the job so they are not liked by the locals, we know the money is lot for them as they had never seen a fifty rupees note before, so my bihari friends, as your nitish and lalu has come stop coming to other states in search of manial jbs and live in your prosperous state, thank you.