Better than The Bomb : Sino-Pak War Treaty ?

[Chanakyaa]

It could be a a non realistic thought but with Indian Defence minister talking about the Sino-Pak "Nexus" a problem for India, what if something worse may happen ?

Its not NOT a new approach but what if China and Pakistan have a War Treaty with Pledge to ...

1. Protect Each Other at the Time of War
2. Accept Attack on any one as the Attack on Both
3. Make Exclusive Commitment to Cooperation during war Times


IMHO, This will be even better than saying "We'' Nuke India if we get attacked" .. Even without saying a word the Implications will be disastrous for India.

Even a Surgical Strike oin Azad Kashmir will mean India is attacking China.

In background to the Defence relations of the two nations, This is NOT a totally void possibility; my effort is to warn India with the effects of such a development and its remedy.

Comments are Most welcome.

 

[Spitfighter]

^^Pakistan would love it, but the Chinese are a lot stronger than we are therefore they wouldn't entertain any such treaties simply because it isn't in their interest, they know India doesn't have the capacity to overtly attack them and so their threat perception isn't the same as Pakistan's. They wouldn't want to drag themselves into a potential nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. Furthermore any such treaty would force India to consider alliances of its own, and they're pretty upset with the US to begin with.

 

[Kompromat]

There are simmilar agreements between Sinopak which have not been made public but i would deny this level of agreement as yet.

Wel it is a good option and not to mention not only against India but against Anyone.

 

[Unbeliever]

I don't think China would ever do that and I don't believe such "secret agreements" really excist.
Way to much to loose for them and does the "factory of the world" really need a military alliance? We are talking about a country here that is 3rd in Nominal GDP(since 2009) and most likely to be second withing the decade..
I don't think so.

 

[Chanakyaa]

There are simmilar agreements between Sinopak which have not been made public but i would deny this level of agreement as yet.

Wel it is a good option and not to mention not only against India but against Anyone.

well, Thats what i am stressing on, Making Public AGREEMENT makes the difference.

 

[oceanx]

Without any real strategic insights, I can only venture forth a one-man's guess: both (China and Pakistan) will rather not go for an "overt" treaty under a nuclear "overhang". Reasons are simple:

1. Utterly un-necessary. Pakistan (and China) both do not fear an existential threat from India - at least not yet. I cannot see how under the current conditions, until such time as a relatively watertight anti-missile shield is operational, how a treaty is more effective than "da" bomb. The model treaties of our day, i.e, NATO or Japan-US defense treaty largely involve the extension of American nuclear umbrella over non-nuclear friendlies. Nothing comparable here. Pakistan can stand on its own - if push comes to shove.

2. The downsides of a "treaty" are legion. History from WWI testifies to this. Any two-bit "non-state actors" from either side (Austrohungarian or German) could and did plunge an entire flower generation of European males to an early RIP. Why would Pakistan or China wish to bind themselves to such a possibility? Besides, what good is a treaty if one party hypothetically loses its will to fight? Example: UK/French commitment to "defend" Poland after 1939. It's well known that the former dragged their feet and hoped the gerries would march further east.

Strategic ambiguity - the type Uncle practices in places like the Taiwan Straight is more suitable, IMHO.

3. To counter India's Cold Start - without a doubt the Great Saffron General Staff's recent musing on two-front wars, 96h blitz, etc. etc. caught some attentions. Again, just shooting from the hips - PRC requires no base (or South Korean style "trip-wire") in Pakistan to counter a Cold-Start. Perhaps just a strategic depot or two in locations that are hard to strike would do.

All they need to store are medium-tech every day weapons like conventional rockets - tons of them, anti-tank missiles, possibly cruise missiles when Beidou gets a little more operational ...

And the Great Saffron General Staff can be notified by "private" means that the war of "attrition" may indeed be an attrition - just not with Pakistan. And even during the first 12 hours nothing is guaranteed ...

I can't fathom how a politically cumbersome treaty would do better than this.

Of course, everything I am spouting here is my usual unsubstantiated rant. I am sure you wouldn't take it any other way ...

 

[oceanx]

There are simmilar agreements between Sinopak which have not been made public but i would deny this level of agreement as yet.

Wel it is a good option and not to mention not only against India but against Anyone.

And that is a good point. If there was one (such treaty), I sure hope they wouldn't publish it through the orange "Times News Service" ...

 

[oceanx]

Lastly, pls pls do not forget the Elephant has not left the room. Despite what Mr. Gates recently said about "not unlimited patience ...", in the end it's far, far, far from certain that the Elephant would give "permission" on a Cold Start when the Saffron General Staff's fingers itch ...

So we are all too eager to count the chickens, so-to-speak ...

 

[PAFAce]

Let's make this clear, Pakistan is entirely self-reliant when it comes to countering Indian designs, either in all out war or otherwise. Pakistani military Think Tanks are prepared for the worst case scenario (Pakistan against the World situation) because that's what they have to be. However, it is also our responsibility to make sure that situation never materializes, by keeping our alliances strong, maintaining interests for other nations and isolating our rivals. A so-called China-Pakistan "nexus" may not be entirely out of question, but be sure, it's not our only hope.

Strategic ambiguity - the type Uncle practices in places like the Taiwan Straight is more suitable, IMHO...

I can't fathom how a politically cumbersome treaty would do better than this.

Indeed, brother.
You fear most that which you do not know
or, the modern day version
The punch that knocks you out is the one you don't see coming

I don't see how having everything out in the open, in the form of an agreement as Xinix suggests, will help either Pakistan or China. Keep it ambiguous, stay close and keep 'em guessing. This will also keep India from looking for similar allegiances from elsewhere (Russia? unlikely, Afghanistan? possibly, Israel? how?).

Heck, if the Art of War by Sun Tzu is anything to go by, you guys have been masters of this since 6th century BC.

Edit
I forgot to add, China will be, by far, the most influential country in an all-out war, but it also has the most to lose. Hence, China most likely would just choose to stay out of it, providing back-door assistance to Pakistan (as India is sure to receive from all over the world)

 

[oceanx]

Let's make this clear, Pakistan is entirely self-reliant when it comes to countering Indian designs, either in all out war or otherwise. Pakistani military Think Tanks are prepared for the worst case scenario (Pakistan against the World situation) because that's what they have to be. However, it is also our responsibility to make sure that situation never materializes, by keeping our alliances strong, maintaining interests for other nations and isolating our rivals. A so-called China-Pakistan "nexus" may not be entirely out of question, but be sure, it's not our only hope.

Indeed, brother.
You fear most that which you do not know
or, the modern day version
The punch that knocks you out is the one you don't see coming

I don't see how having everything out in the open, in the form of an agreement as Xinix suggests, will help either Pakistan or China. Keep it ambiguous, stay close and keep 'em guessing. This will also keep India from looking for similar allegiances from elsewhere (Russia, maybe?).

Heck, if the Art of War by Sun Tzu is anything to go by, you guys have been masters of this since 6th century BC.

Hear hear. That's why I am a South-Asian-phile - to an extent. Keep the spirit of competition alive. That's how nations and cultures progress over the long run (my own bias is showing clearly). One "big happy family" does not always bring "lasting improvement" (that's one reason why I personally insist Taiwan to remain separate). And I have convinced a South Asian friend of mine (from East Africa) that one of India's worst moves since independence was to forcibly re-unite Goa - going any further along this tangent will get me charged for derailing.

We all know how any small European state could beat Mogul India or Manchu China into a supine position in late 19th and early 20th century despite the latter's size.

But clearly, Asians also don't want to commit mass suicide as the Europeans did in this last century.

Or I presume they don't.

That's why hopefully we could follow some "rules" and keep "lines of communication" open.

BTW, I never read Sun Tze in full. What little I did dip myself in convinced me that it's mostly "common sense", which all Eurasian cultures express in one manner or another ...

But despite this fact, the people of Vom Kriege and the people who sailed half-way around the world to push Opium nevertheless still attempted suicide together ...

Food for thought for "Eastern barbarians" (although I am clearly a re-located "eastern barbarian") ...