Benefits and disadvantages of Russia-Ukraine war for Iran

[Shapur Zol Aktaf]

Share your opinion/analysis.

 

[Wood]

If western countries think Russia is a bigger problem than Iran, then it would make Iranian oil a relatively better commodity. Iran is not a direct security threat to Europe like Putin has made himself out to be. Anti-Russian sentiment in the west will also push Russia closer with Iran.

I'd say that Iran stands to benefit diplomatically and economically because of this conflict.

 

[QWECXZ]

1. The SWIFT will be replaced by alternative systems among Iran, China, Russia, Syria, Venezuela and a few other countries. The US dollar will be closer to losing its status as the world's standard currency for trade.
2. Russia will be more likely to provide Iran with lethal weapons to enrage the Europeans and the West.
3. Iran will no longer be the center of attention for Europe and the US. The best thing possible.
4. More and more countries may reevaluate their nuclear policies, putting the West at a weaker position in nuclear negotiations.
5. Energy prices will soar, Iran's oil revenue will increase.
6. Demands for Iran returning to the world's energy market will increase. European countries will find it more difficult to abide by the US sanctions.
7. Russia may change its stance in Syria to one that benefits Iran more.

I can't think of even a single disadvantage for Iran honestly.

 

[Natalya Shadova]

This is 100% beneficial for Iran. They can replace some of Russia's gas exports and get new fighter jets. Don't be surprised if we see newly built SU-35s, SU-30SM2/3s, and MiG-35s, alongside second hand MiG-29s upgraded to MiG-35 standard in Iran.

 

[PakAlp]

Advantage:
It will benefit Iran if Russia decides to sell advance military technology, create an alternative to SWIFT, more trade, investment in Iran.

Disadvantage:
If Russia becomes weaker then its very dangerous for Russian allies like Belarus, Iran, Syria etc because who will guarantee their security. Syria was almost destroyed and overtaken by the rebels but only because of Russian involvement the Syrian government is in power, without Russian backing Iran could become an easy threat..

 

[Titanium100]

This will be bad for Iran as this will force Washington to take action now before it is to late with the nuclear profileration in the region they can't handle one putin how many putins do they want? If the profileration not stopped and it can only happen one way Iran invasion and denuclearize including regime change to avert making 10 putins in the region because everyone will get one unless the profileration source is invaded and no deals can avert it the race is already on and nobody will believe in the deal..

The US is forced between a rock and a hard place..

They will take the lesser evil to safe for themselves the future which is take out iran hence there is no other option they are forced into a wall

 

[Shapur Zol Aktaf]

1. The SWIFT will be replaced by alternative systems among Iran, China, Russia, Syria, Venezuela and a few other countries. The US dollar will be closer to losing its status as the world's standard currency for trade.
2. Russia will be more likely to provide Iran with lethal weapons to enrage the Europeans and the West.
3. Iran will no longer be the center of attention for Europe and the US. The best thing possible.
4. More and more countries may reevaluate their nuclear policies, putting the West at a weaker position in nuclear negotiations.
5. Energy prices will soar, Iran's oil revenue will increase.
6. Demands for Iran returning to the world's energy market will increase. European countries will find it more difficult to abide by the US sanctions.
7. Russia may change its stance in Syria to one that benefits Iran more.

I can't think of even a single disadvantage for Iran honestly.

Pretty much close to what I was thinking. Plus I think position of Turkey will become weaker as result of this war. Turkey can't play the neutral role, it's being forced to side closer with NATO. Indirectly this outcome could benefit Iran on different fronts.

Maybe Russia could connect EAEU (Eurasian union) which has free trade agreement with Iran to its SWIFT alternative. SWIFT is the "economic nuclear option" of west, so east has to get rid of it asap.

 

[Shapur Zol Aktaf]

We're not alone anymore. Ordinary Russians will feel the sanctions, it's not a good feeling. China is put on alert.

Iran is no political card (anymore) to be played with, Iran is an anti-sanction broker and an independent and stable power which has a long term vision in its foreign policy, no flip flopping from Iranian side.

Russians will ask Iran for advice and have to adapt long term strategy when it comes to Iran.

With powerfull and wise diplomats such as Amir-Abdollahian I expect good news in near future.

 

[aryobarzan]

Here is my two cents.. all benefits and no adverse effect on Iran..most benefits already mentioned here

A new angel to look at is that US will force her vassal states to choose side..no longer you can play the double game ..Turkey, Israel, Egypt will be given ultimatum.. choose you side and ditch your Russian connections..no more s400s no more UAE SU 57 codevelopment..

Space will suffer..Iran will get many space projects ..and Russian tourists

 

[rmi5]

Here is my two cents.. all benefits and no adverse effect on Iran..most benefits already mentioned here

A new angel to look at is that US will force her vassal states to choose side..no longer you can play the double game ..Turkey, Israel, Egypt will be given ultimatum.. choose you side and ditch your Russian connections..no more s400s no more UAE SU 57 codevelopment..

Space will suffer..Iran will get many space projects ..and Russian tourists

One note regarding Iran. It seems that everybody is significantly underestimating how powerful the western offshoots are in Iran, which comprises of 95%+ of reformist and the super-majority of conservatives (Velayati, Larijanis, ...). Currently, as we speak, France, Germany, UK, have put significant pressure on Iran's negotiation team to finalize the new JCPOA, to ensure that Iran doesn't fall under the Russian/Chinese sphere.
Turkey, Israel already made their calls, joined the western camp as expected. Don't be surprised if Pakistan also joins them. China will be mainly neutral, too. Basically, the same cold era scene will be repeated. Will Iran remain "independent", which serves the western interest? That remains a question.

+ one more note, Iranians also underestimate Russians role in helping Iran during sanctions. A weakened Russia won't be in Iran's interest. Other than this, I agree with the list @QWECXZ provided above.

 

[aryobarzan]

The gas play for Europe will be very interesting to watch...I expect the newly discovered gas deposites in Iran's Caspean sea section which is one of biggest after South pars to become hot active...just look at the map..Gas supplies big enough and available for export are with, Russia, Iran, Turkmenistan, and Qatar...the rest are small producers mostly for domestic...
Big markets for gas are Europe and Asia..Iran sits comfortably in the middle..we can export up north or we can export East...makes no difference..we can also swap Qatar gas and deliver it to Euroup from North through Turkey..all win win win..I be watching that lol

 

[mohsen]

I think the biggest advantage for us is
1. the deepening distrust, between the western countries, between east and west, and of course between powers and their puppet allies (GCC/ Israel,etc).

2. Increasing conflict of interests among them. such as US-France, or US-Germany, or EU-UK, or US-Israel-Russia, etc. in fact, right now some believe it was all US plan to provoke the Russia and create chaos in EU, US sanctions Russia, but Europeans will feel the pressure as well.

P.S
Israel is totally and truly fucked, their fake neutral status between East and West has collapsed, now their choices are just between bad and bad!

P.P.S
Guess how much heart broken the french became when after JCPOA, their beloved reformists in Iran suddenly switched from Airbus to Boeing!

P.P.P.S
What a coincident, each time a conservative government is elected in Iran, oil price goes up, and it's not particularly due to Iran's actions, unless you believe in butterfly effect!

P.P.P.P.S
Next round of elections worldwide is fun to watch, or should I say the new world order.

 

[raptor22]

Well it was a huge mistake by Putin and now he is facing regime of sanctions .. a banana skin through before Russia and they went for it .... invading another country in no way could be justified and I hope it'd ended asap ... on the other hand I expected a better military performance by them in the war which didn't happen.
For Iran again it depends on our decision makers to seize the moment or not, for sure by high prices Iran's oil would seem more tasty, American being concern about Russia, Ukraine and China would give Iran more space, Russia would seek more cooperation with independent countries like Iran, more countries would realize how West would turn its back on you and is untrustworthy like Afghanistan like Morsi , like Mosadegh, like Gorbachev and like Ukraine .... it'd make Arab countries in the region to recalculate their relations with American regarding protection as we witness the UAE stance in the UNSC.
On the other hand it make EU more depended on the USA and could pave path for clown to return to the oval office under slogan that sleepy Joey has given Ukraine to Russia but I think what Biden has done could end up in weakening Russia badly.

 

[drmeson]

17 years old Strategists in this thread are too funny.

Nothing is going to change for Iran except that Russia might supply us with some more weapons than they usually do. That is it.

 

[khansaheeb]

17 years old Strategists in this thread are too funny.

Nothing is going to change for Iran except that Russia might supply us with some more weapons than they usually do. That is it.

Depends on the outcome. If Russia is subdued then NATO can divert more resources to the Iranian theater.