Believe it or not! Petrol could be below Rs 30 a litre in 5 years

[MULUBJA]

When this will happen, there shall be a big positive impact on all subcontinent economies.

 

[Arsalan]

I never said (specifically) lithium.
Batteries in general.

View attachment 399372

OK, Let me rephrase it then, are you saying that Batteries are power producers and source of power generation just like nuclear, solar and wind (you mentioned lithium with these three sources, not batteries but lithium)

 

[ashok321]

OK, Let me rephrase it then, are you saying that Batteries are power producers and source of power generation just like nuclear, solar and wind (you mentioned lithium with these three sources, not batteries but lithium)

How?

 

[Arsalan]

How?

Here is your post:

In few words, its Lithium, wind power, Solar and nuclear power.
Crude oil will be on a back burner.

4 against 1.
Cant win.

 

[ashok321]

Here is your post:

Lithium is a platform that Tesla is banking upon.
All the electric cars of the future would be dependent upon it.
Not that it is a source.
It is a platform.

Lithium enjoys the Tesla effect - Financial Times
Rise of electric cars accelerates race for lithium assets

The metal is stirring investor excitement and a healthy dose of bubble fear

This is one such source that will help replace crude oil, owing to its demand in car and other batteries.

A scramble for lithium assets is emerging after an Australian-listed miner sold a deposit in west Africa to a Chinese buyer for almost 2,000 times what it paid less than a year ago.

The auto sector is expected to consume 24 per cent of total lithium output by 2020 from around 7 per cent in 2015, according to Goldman Sachs.

 

[Alternative]

I believe it! At the same time all gasoline and diesel vehicles will be banned from the roads. That's when it will get cheaper.

Where you will put the cheap gasoline?

 

[rott]

Where you will put the cheap gasoline?

No clue. Probably generators?

 

[Alternative]

Renewable energy is not as viable as crude oil.

But what is crude oil up to when it can not compete or has lesser demand?
The scenario is grim for crude oil ahead.
Take any future analysis of Credit Suisse and Merrill Lynch.

As you know, 80% of world's energy comes from fossil fuels; Very basic fact of success of fossil fuel is that it is the most efficient form of energy carrier, as elucidated in my previous email.
I would repeat, till the science fiction like electricity storage and retrial technology is developed, fossil fuels will rule;
All other renewable energies, which are costlier options for most of the countries, being developed, if dent the demand side of fossils fuel, this will make fossil fuel cheap, which in turn will attract more consumer worldwide.

No clue. Probably generators?

What is the difference if you charge an electric car with a gasoline consuming generator and car running on gasoline?

 

[ashok321]

As you know, 80% of world's energy comes from fossil fuels; Very basic fact of success of fossil fuel is that it is the most efficient form of energy carrier, as elucidated in my previous email.
I would repeat, till the science fiction like electricity storage and retrial technology is developed, fossil fuels will rule;
All other renewable energies, which are costlier options for most of the countries, being developed, if dent the demand side of fossils fuel, this will make fossil fuel cheap, which in turn will attract more consumer worldwide.

YOU SAY: this will make fossil fuel cheap, which in turn will attract more consumer worldwide.

Article = Believe it or not! Petrol could be below Rs 30 a litre in 5 years

So what are you arguing about?
It seems you are ok with the article's nuts & bolts.

This following BP chart bears no significance?

Why are we arguing against the conventional wisdom?

What is the difference if you charge an electric car with a gasoline consuming generator and car running on gasoline?

Future cars would be all electric and not hybrid!

 

[Baghial]

Believe it or not! Petrol could be below Rs 30 a litre in 5 years

In five years, you could be buying petrol at less than Rs 30 a litre. Emerging technology is going to reduce the world's dependence on petrol so much that prices will plummet. That's the prediction by Tony Seba, an American futurist who is famous for predicting a boom in solar power when the prices used to be forbiddingly high, 10 times the prices today.

Seba is a serial Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and an instructor in Entrepreneurship, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford’s Continuing Studies Program.

Seba's prediction on solar energy came true, but will he be right about the future of oil too? It seems highly likely if you look at what prompts Seba.

According to Seba, the rise of self-drive cars would bring down oil demand sharply which could reduce the price of oil to $25 a barrel. "Oil demand will peak 2021-2020 and will go down 100 million barrels, to 70 million barrels within 10 years. And what that means, the new equilibrium price is going to be $25," Seba said while speaking to CNBC.

Seba says people would not stop using the old-style cars but the self-drive electric vehicles will become a much larger part of the sharing economy. These electric vehicles will be cheaper to buy as well as run.

Seba had earlier said that by 2030, 95% of people won’t own private cars which would wipe off the automobile industry. He also predicted that electric vehicles would destroy the global oil industry.

Recently, Union power minister Piyush Goyal said India was looking to have all-electric car fleet by 2030. He meant not a single petrol or diesel car would be sold in the country after 15 years.

If you look at rapid advances in technology and business, you will find Seba convincing. No one doubts that soon electric cars will become a mass trend. Add to this the innovation in travel business such as Uber and rideshare apps. The future these two trends indicate looks like this: most people will prefer shared electric vehicles to owning cars while most of those still buying cars would go for electric ones.

"Imagine a Starbucks on wheels. Essentially transportation is going to be so cheap, it's going to be essentially cheaper for Starbucks to run around and take me to work, which is, you know, 60 kilometers away, and give that transportation for free, in exchange for going to buy coffee in that hour of commute," Seba said while speaking to CNBC.

The dim future of oil will also have a major geopolitical impact: the economies that depend mostly on oil will be hit badly. Many Arab countries will lose much of their influence and power.

Even if its free in the entire world pakistanis will pay 3 times the normal price. As its now

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

His prediction of most people not owning cars anymore is correct. However there is definitely going to be a "class" system with the quality of cars that drive you around depending upon your budget or membership.

 

[thesolar65]

if that happens.....end of global terrorism.

 

[kadamba-warrior]

As you know, 80% of world's energy comes from fossil fuels; Very basic fact of success of fossil fuel is that it is the most efficient form of energy carrier, as elucidated in my previous email.
I would repeat, till the science fiction like electricity storage and retrial technology is developed, fossil fuels will rule;
All other renewable energies, which are costlier options for most of the countries, being developed, if dent the demand side of fossils fuel, this will make fossil fuel cheap, which in turn will attract more consumer worldwide.

Agreed. Fossil fuels are one of the most efficient energy carriers. That's why I think there is a great future for carbon neutral gasoline - i.e. synthetic gasoline. The one that is generated with some other renewable energy source like solar or algae on an industrial scale. The advantages are immense - not only are they carbon neutral, the present automobile/aviation industry can run with absolutely no modification needed.

Unless the battery technology goes gang-busters and starts packing insane amount of power without any increase in form/weight, I think synthetic fuels are the way to go.

https://www.engadget.com/2016/08/01/uic-solar-co2-fuel/

What is the difference if you charge an electric car with a gasoline consuming generator and car running on gasoline?

Generally, it is a lot easier and cost effective to enforce stricter emission controls in a large power plant than in millions of individual cars.

His prediction of most people not owning cars anymore is correct. However there is definitely going to be a "class" system with the quality of cars that drive you around depending upon your budget or membership.

I believe a lot of people around the world have taken Mr.Goyal (India's energy minister) too seriously when he said that India will completely phase out fossil fueled vehicles by 2030. Although he is one of the most efficient ministers in Modi's government, he was way over his head when he said that.

Although I wish it to be true, there is absolutely no way we can achieve that. The Electric Car market in India currently simply doesn't exist! And it would be a Herculean task to make price-sensitive consumers to buy exorbitantly expensive electric vehicles, in a country which still suffers from chronic electricity shortages and load-shedding.

 

[ashok321]

His prediction of most people not owning cars anymore is correct. However there is definitely going to be a "class" system with the quality of cars that drive you around depending upon your budget or membership.

Learn from the best:

In a recent interview the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al' are…… There have always been the 3 constants ... Death, Taxes and CHANGE!

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years. Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.


Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year. Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.



Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.


Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy. With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.


Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment. 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past. At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.


In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed. Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century. Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time. Agriculture:




There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).



There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not. Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world! Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.


Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.

 

[Alternative]

YOU SAY: this will make fossil fuel cheap, which in turn will attract more consumer worldwide.



So what are you arguing about?
It seems you are ok with the article's nuts & bolts.

This following BP chart bears no significance?

Why are we arguing against the conventional wisdom?

What is the difference if you charge an electric car with a gasoline consuming generator and car running on gasoline?

Future cars would be all electric and not hybrid!

The BP chart you shared is the Electricity Production and Consumption. and till 2030 we can see that Oil used for production of electricity will be used, a bit less, but other fossil fuels will be used with much greater proportions, And on consumption of electricity side, minimal variance in %age terms usage in Transport....

So the Oil will be continued to used in Transport..............
From the BP chart you provided, Electricity usage is almost a flat line for transport, from which I can infer that Transport will be reliant on Oil; so in near future Crude products consuming or hybrid cars will continue to roam.
About 71% (?) of Crude is used for transportation now; and chart provided by you show that this is not going to change significantly.
From what I can read that demand of Oil is not going down significantly (if any at all) in near future.


With decreasing demand prices are impacted negatively, which in turn attract more consumers, till a balancing point is reached; Market reactions to demand, supply and prices. Nothing out of ordinary.

Between, you have not commented on my point of crude as carrier of energy and such; instead have pulled me to those point which were not addressed by me; Excellent maneuvering.