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BD economic crisis is more domestic than global: Minister of State for Planning

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Economic crisis is more domestic than global: Minister of State for Planning
Published: February 04, 2023 19:17:07

State Minister for Planning Shamsul Alam sees more internal responsibility than the global situation behind the pressure of the economy for the past few months.

The government has repeatedly blamed this situation on the changed global situation due to the Russia-Ukraine war. This was the first time another explanation came up. However, he did not give a detailed explanation about this 'internal crisis'. News from bdnews24.com.

The state minister said, "The economic crisis is more internal than global in nature."

He was speaking at the annual economist conference of private research organization South Asian Economic Modeling (SANEM) at the Mohakhali BRAC Center in Dhaka on Saturday, two days after the first installment of the IMF loan was deposited.

Like many other countries in the world, the past one year is going to be difficult for Bangladesh. Experts are talking about the biggest anxiety about the economy in the last era due to the rise in prices of commodities and energy in the global market, further impact on prices due to depreciation of rupee against the dollar, dollar crisis, continuous decline in reserves, decline in expatriate income, etc.

The Minister of State for Planning also spoke about the criticism that politics has gone into the hands of businessmen. He said, "The politics of the country is in the hands of politicians, but many members of parliament are businessmen."

The state minister also believes that the government is taking a loan from the International Monetary Fund or IMF to come out of this economic crisis, which will be positive for the country.

He said, “The reforms proposed by the IMF in our financial sector are logical. On their (IMF) advice, a series of reforms are being carried out in the financial sector. As we have taken these proposals positively, now other donor agencies are also showing interest.”

Last January 31, the IMF announced the approval of a loan of 4.7 billion dollars for Bangladesh. Two days later, 47.62 million dollars of the first installment was deposited in the Bangladesh Bank account.

Bangladesh has to accept 30 conditions of the organization to take this loan. One of them is to reduce subsidies on electricity and fuel.

Economists believe that this condition is responsible for increasing the price of electricity twice within a month, the price of gas for sectors other than residential and transport has increased two and a half times. Especially if the price of gas for industry and electricity increases, there is a fear that the product price will increase further.

However, the IMF feels that the move to reduce subsidies and raise prices will be positive overall for Bangladesh going forward. This will create more financing opportunities for social and development expenditure.

Another condition of the IMF is to reduce non-performing loans in the banking sector. The government has also agreed to bring down the default loan ceiling to 10 percent in public sector banks and 5 percent in private banks.

The speakers at this year's conference of SANEM discussed the challenges that are being created in the country's economy due to the global crisis and how to overcome them.

In the first session, Sanem Executive Director Prof. Salim Raihan said, "IMF's Tk 470 crore loan is not a political decision, but a turning point." As a result of getting this loan, now other donors will have confidence in Bangladesh. It will be easier for them to get low interest loans.”

Economist Professor Rehman Sobhan said to emphasize four things to fix the country's economy.

He said, "We have to find out which one should be prioritized among the injuries that have come to the macro economy. Emphasis should be placed on how governments and institutions will act in this regard and the impact of these injuries on the regional economic environment.”

Economist Wahiduddin Mahmud said, "The amount of reserves is not a big deal, it is important to note the trend. It remains to be seen how much it goes down in a year or two. If it goes down, it cannot be allowed to continue, once it starts going down, it is difficult for an import-dependent country like us to deal with it within the framework."

One and a half hundred economists from various regions including South Asia are participating in this two-day conference. In the conference, 80 articles will be presented by economics researchers including teachers and students of different universities in 23 sessions.
 
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Economic crisis is more domestic than global: Minister of State for Planning
Hasina and her Cabinet people should stop scapegoating the Ukraine war as responsible for the current economic crisis. It is the mismanagement of the economy and finance that has created a shortage of dollars and the country is unable to pay even the money in dollars for the goods its traders have imported.

Ships are waiting in anchors in offshore areas a few km away from the Port.
 
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Publicly behead our loan defaulting, money laundering, crony capitalist, charter accountant finance minister...
 
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But but , I heard that British people is skipping one time meal and eating twice instead of three times! 😂

( That means , if Bengali can eat only one time in a day , they should be happy , because all problems are for Ukraine war! 🤣 )

Ps - Future finance minister @UKBengali sir ( appointed by @BananaRepublicUK ) , should prove this statement wrong, with his sharp knowledge of economics! :omghaha:
 
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A bit of introspection here is very good to see.

The impact of external supply side shock that has enveloped BD is given. It has impacted every non-petrodollar economy globally.

However the mess in our banking sector with huge non performing debt is a political crisis at it very root which is entirely home made. People have been sounding the alarm for a decade that attracted zero policy response from BAL. The reason is simple the debtors are all politically connected to BAL.

The foreign currency bleed through over invoicing again must fall at the door of BAL. No effective action taken because the perpetrators are BAL.

Lastly the hundi operators are also BAL cronies that is depriving the exchequer.

It is time to take effective action and IMF push hopefully will see some positive development.

The article however is entirely incorrect to assert that govt can do anything about private banks non performing debt unless it underwrites those bad loans thereby increasing the loan burden of the government.

Whilst there are silver lining to IMF actions there are two short term risks. First BD loses control of its fiscal and monetary independence that may put at risk ambitious plan to develop a national safety be it paying stipend to children (girls) in education, stipend for the poor and a national pension scheme.

Secondly I fear that if BAL loses political control it may underwrite all the bad debts of banks to absolve BAL cronies of responsibility. This would be catastrophic error with generational implication.

However i always like to be positive, economy is growing and we do have the capacity to deal with the problem that we face. BAL has a once in a lifetime opportunity to bring order to BD financial sector. They need to be bold and do what is necessary in the national interest rather that of party interest. BD can have a balanced economy that serves all her people. We can realistically strive and aim for a vibrant economy with a welfare safety net and achieve developed status within a couple of decade.
 
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A bit of introspection here is very good to see.

The impact of external supply side shock that has enveloped BD is given. It has impacted every non-petrodollar economy globally.

However the mess in our banking sector with huge non performing debt is a political crisis at it very root which is entirely home made. People have been sounding the alarm for a decade that attracted zero policy response from BAL. The reason is simple the debtors are all politically connected to BAL.

The foreign currency bleed through over invoicing again must fall at the door of BAL. No effective action taken because the perpetrators are BAL.

Lastly the hundi operators are also BAL cronies that is depriving the exchequer.

It is time to take effective action and IMF push hopefully will see some positive development.

The article however is entirely incorrect to assert that govt can do anything about private banks non performing debt unless it underwrites those bad loans thereby increasing the loan burden of the government.

Whilst there are silver lining to IMF actions there are two short term risks. First BD loses control of its fiscal and monetary independence that may put at risk ambitious plan to develop a national safety be it paying stipend to children (girls) in education, stipend for the poor and a national pension scheme.

Secondly I fear that if BAL loses political control it may underwrite all the bad debts of banks to absolve BAL cronies of responsibility. This would be catastrophic error with generational implication.

However i always like to be positive, economy is growing and we do have the capacity to deal with the problem that we face. BAL has a once in a lifetime opportunity to bring order to BD financial sector. They need to be bold and do what is necessary in the national interest rather that of party interest. BD can have a balanced economy that serves all her people. We can realistically strive and aim for a vibrant economy with a welfare safety net and achieve developed status within a couple of decade.

There is unfortunately too many corrupt thugs in key places in BD that BAL has put in in substantially long term way.

We are in for quite a reckoning this year and next as one system (BAL set up) that was able to perform in prior setting to some level is now going to face severe stress test going forward because there is piling up reform need that BAL simply will not do (as they do not see long term picture for BD and reality of some key world shifts/pressures coming at ever quicker pace now).
 
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