BBC: India growth figures baffle economists

[kaykay]

India had 2010 as the base year compared to Pakistan still using 1999-2005.And now we are expecting to change it to 2005-06.

With only the change in Base year we are expecting atleast a increase of 30-35% in our GDP



It is a good development,i don't know why our govt doesn't do it regularly

Our base year wasn't 2010 but 2004-05. Now its revised to 2011-12.

 

[Echo_419]

India had 2010 as the base year compared to Pakistan still using 1999-2005.And now we are expecting to change it to 2005-06.

With only the change in Base year we are expecting atleast a increase of 30-35% in our GDP



It is a good development,i don't know why our govt doesn't do it regularly

So you agree with the fact that this was not a scam but a logical thing to do

 

[farhan_9909]

So you agree with the fact that this was not a scam but a logical thing to do

I don't think so,every country does so,so that they can get the real updated numbers

 

[SrNair]

I think its peoples confidence in india due to Modi's policies .

But we need one more year to know its real effect.

 

[zip]

So whats total gdp figure now ?

 

[Sliver]

If you apply the same statistical methods, how much would be China's growth rate? then we can compare apples to apples and see how good India's growth rate its.

Please note - I am not comparing India's growth to China's - I am saying we can compare two values only when they are similar. With the new "formula" how much is China's growth rate? Is there a way to find that formula?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Well now that we are on the same ride,you can be sure that we will not bash you on that thing

Take it and enjoy it.

 

[Jackdaws]

@DRAY, @SarthakGanguly, @ito, @Jackdaws

Despite the international media being highly skeptical of these numbers, it may surprise you to know that I personally don't have an issue with the numbers.

Developing countries in general have a large amount of economic activity that doesn't find its way into official calculations, so it wouldn't surprise me if India and other developing countries are growing much faster than official numbers would suggest.

Considering India's base GDP per capita is lower than the developing world average, the new numbers aren't surprising. Having a lower base naturally means it easier to achieve a higher percentage rate of growth.

Also Modi's economic policies so far have been very good, with some extra breathing room afforded by the drop in global oil prices (and thus less of a problem with inflation, allowing more growth boosting measures).

Though it is funny how Indians always question China's growth rate, despite our economic indicators going up.

We've never had a year where our economic indicators have been falling hugely while our GDP growth rate has been soaring. Food for thought.

Modi has done little except pose with world leaders for different photo-ops. The Indian economy is more confident because it has a stable government.But my concern remaining the strengthening of the fringe Hindutva elements in the BJP and the Sangh.

 

[dray]

@DRAY, @SarthakGanguly, @ito, @Jackdaws

Despite the international media being highly skeptical of these numbers, it may surprise you to know that I personally don't have an issue with the numbers.

Developing countries in general have a large amount of economic activity that doesn't find its way into official calculations, so it wouldn't surprise me if India and other developing countries are growing much faster than official numbers would suggest.

Considering India's base GDP per capita is lower than the developing world average, the new numbers aren't surprising. Having a lower base naturally means it easier to achieve a higher percentage rate of growth.

Also Modi's economic policies so far have been very good, with some extra breathing room afforded by the drop in global oil prices (and thus less of a problem with inflation, allowing more growth boosting measures).

Though it is funny how Indians always question China's growth rate, despite our economic indicators going up.

We've never had a year where our economic indicators have been falling hugely while our GDP growth rate has been soaring. Food for thought.

If you apply the same statistical methods, how much would be China's growth rate? then we can compare apples to apples and see how good India's growth rate its.

Please note - I am not comparing India's growth to China's - I am saying we can compare two values only when they are similar. With the new "formula" how much is China's growth rate? Is there a way to find that formula?

1. Most economies use the 'market price' to arrive at GDP, but India was using 'cost of production' for calculating GDP, that has been corrected and now the new system is in sync with the World Bank and IMF system, and with most other countries.

2. Base year is revised from time to time to reflect more accurate picture of the GDP, all countries do that.

3. The scope of data collection has been broadened to get more accurate data. The data has become more reliable and closer to actual now.

However, we still have a huge unorganized sector and unreported business activities (to save tax) that remains outside the scope of the GDP. Our GDP still remains under-reported.

Check this: Base year revision impact: FY14 GDP at 6.9%, FY13 at 5.1% - Moneycontrol.com

And Chinese economic figures are already following the 'market price', they have lesser unreported businesses and their unorganized sectors are better reported because of their more controlled economy, in fact their figures may be a bit inflated too, but I will not go into that as I am trying to improve the bilateral ties between me and @Chinese-Dragon .

 

[Beidou2020]

India can make up any number they want but if the economy is not actually growing as fast as it says, then the country is not progressing.

 

[Abingdonboy]

India can make up any number they want but if the economy is not actually growing as fast as it says, then the country is not progressing.

You really didn't read this thread did you?

 

[Pak_Sher]

These figures are bubbled up. No substance just hype.

 

[my2cents]

seems like some people dont know, not been around long enough or haven't read enough to know that historically the term "Hindu rate of growth" was associated with India's dismal 2.0 growth rate...hence they give -ve rating for something thats beyond their understanding. Hindu rate of growth on steroid is a new term invented by me just now to show how fast India is developing now. but my question is should I use Burnol on India because she must be getting hot on a fast growth rate?

Try to use a smiley if you want to be sarcastic. We have seen enough of your vitriol and venom to think otherwise.

 

[Luca1]

India can make up any number they want but if the economy is not actually growing as fast as it says, then the country is not progressing.

If this change encourage more chest thumping among Indians here. Than their gov will do adjustments every few weeks to get every Indian excited. Congrats to India for being the fastest growing economy by changing the numbers. Congress should have thought of this method earlier. They might still be in power.

 

[Indos]

But UK did it to & Our Indonesian Partners will also do the same thing this year

Correct, calculation is underway now, so our GDP figure will be much bigger after that but it will not affect growth calculation though. Before, we still use 2003 as based year, and now we try to use 2013 as based year if I am not mistaken.