Bangladesh’s authoritarian shift

[Black_cats]

Bangladesh’s authoritarian shift
18 January 2020

Author: Ali Riaz, Illinois State University

In Bangladesh the ruling Awami League has established total control over state machinery and politics since the managed election of December 2018. Simmering popular discontent found expression in agitations against the killing of a student, price hikes and government-appointed university administration corruption in 2019.

The 2018 election, described by international media as farcical, delivered an unprecedented victory to the incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and a third consecutive term for her. It shattered the confidence of citizens in the electoral process, demonstrated by the low turnout for the subsequent city corporation election and local council elections. It has also laid out the political trajectory of the country — away from democracy, towards authoritarianism.

The opposition, particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), lacked a strategy to mount resistance against the incumbent’s agenda. Indecision of the leadership and weak organisational capacity have become more visible. The BNP’s inability to address its relationship with the Islamist political party Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) exacerbated the problem.

There is pressure on the BNP to cut ties with JI, even when some within the party feel that abandoning the JI will hurt the party’s vote bank. The leadership of acting Chairperson Tarique Rahman, who is in exile in London, has also contributed to schisms within the party. The decision of the BNP and other opposition members of parliament to join the de facto one-party parliament exposed the BNP’s weaknesses and provided the one-party parliament moral legitimacy. BNP leader Khaleda Zia, sentenced to 17 years in 2018, remains in jail as courts continue to deny bail.

The absence of a formidable opposition, a lack of oversight of the parliament and no accountability mechanisms have accentuated rampant abuses of power by the executive. A culture of impunity permeates the rank and file of the ruling party. Its activists are engaged in extortion, torture and illicit activities. The torture and killing of student Abrar Fahad by student activists of the ruling party in October 2019 laid bare the widespread practice of extortion and torture in universities and various educational institutions.

A drive against illegal casinos operated by the ruling party’s youth leaders beginning in September 2019 revealed the extent of their extortion rings. The drive, initially described as ‘cleansing’ and later portrayed as an ‘anti-corruption drive’ fizzled out — it only netted low level operatives while bigwigs remained untouched.

Experts warn that the bubble of economic growth mayburst due to this style of governance. Despite Asian Development Bank forecasts for high GDP growth and an improvement in the ease of doing business rankings, there are worrying signs.

According to the Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD), the economy is under stress and at its weakest point in the past decade. CPD’s assessment points to a gloomy pictureas revenue mobilisation, the banking sector, the capital market and balance of payments are facing serious problems. Export earnings have begun to fall. The country’s main source of export income, readymade garments, is experiencing a downward spiral costing thousands of jobs. Data shows that major economic indicators are forecasting downturn. There are concerns that the country is heading into a recession.

Two sources of concern emerged from developments in neighbouring countries. Almost a million Rohingya refugeeswho have taken shelter in Bangladesh since 2017 are now being described by the government as a burden. The International Criminal Court’s decision to investigate crimes perpetrated by Myanmar and the International Court of Justice’s preliminary hearing have drawn international attention. Bangladesh continues to pursue bilateral negotiations.

The conclusion of India’s National Registry of Citizens in Assam has also become a source of worry for Bangladesh. Hundreds of people have started to cross the border in fear of persecution. The Bangladeshi government’s trust in India’s assurances reflects an unwillingness to take an independent stance. Popular sentiment against India is on the rise for political reasons as well as economic ones. India’s decision to ban the export of onions to Bangladesh led to a spike in onion prices, contributing to the growing anti-Indian sentiment. Hasina also expressed her displeasure during a visit to New Delhi in October 2019.

Following the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Bill in India, Bangladesh cancelled the visits of two ministers to India and did not attend the Joint River Commissionmeeting. Considering the unequal relationship between the two countries, whether Hasina’s government will be able to take a strong stand remains unclear.

The political and economic events of 2019 point to a possible trajectory for 2020. The government has claimed credit for GDP growth and visible large-scale infrastructure projects. But as the data related to economic growth is questioned, income inequality continues to rapidly increase and signs of economic stress are becoming visible, the question remains — how will the incumbent government address these developments?

With increasing discontent and growing reliance on force, the government is more likely to take an authoritarian approach to governance and limit the space for dissent in the year to come. The opposition is likely to face a further squeeze if it fails to chart a new course. Unless pushed back, the media will become an echo chamber. This pessimistic scenario can be changed only if the course of unaccountable politics and governance is reversed.

Ali Riaz is Distinguished Professor at the Department of Politics and Government, Illinois State University.

This article is part of an EAF special feature series on 2019 in review and the year ahead.

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/01/18/bangladeshs-authoritarian-shift/

 

[bd_4_ever]

Keep it a bit 'authoritarian' for now, if that's what people like to call it. Its working well. Once the economic foundation has been laid and people have become more educated and aware of what true democracy means, take it out of the equation. It won't be like this forever.

 

[mmr]

Keep it a bit 'authoritarian' for now, if that's what people like to call it. Its working well. Once the economic foundation has been laid and people have become more educated and aware of what true democracy means, take it out of the equation. It won't be like this forever.

Is this a good suggestion? You dont need a dictatorship for economic growth. Bd is growing because its already third world poor country and most of the growth due to private sector. Its not hard to grow at 8 percent when 2000 dollar is per capita! If bd can grow 7 percent after it hit 6000 per capita maybe its worth celebrating.

 

[UKBengali]

Is this a good suggestion? You dont need a dictatorship for economic growth. Bd is growing because its already third world poor country and most of the growth due to private sector. Its not hard to grow at 8 percent when 2000 dollar is per capita! If bd can grow 7 percent after it hit 6000 per capita maybe its worth celebrating.

Tell me one country that was a real democracy growing at 8% while at 2000 US dollar per capita?
You cannot as they do not exist.
BD may not be perfect but tell me do you want to end up with a dismal economy like India or Pakistan?

 

[mmr]

Tell me one country that was a real democracy growing at 8% while at 2000 US dollar per capita?
You cannot as they do not exist.
BD may not be perfect but tell me do you want to end up with a dismal economy like India or Pakistan?

I dont know any country. But i do know this when hasina leave there will be power vacuum and destabilization. She destroyed functional democracy. It wont be smooth transition.

 

[UKBengali]

I dont know any country. But i do know this when hasina leave there will be power vacuum and destabilization. She destroyed functional democracy. It wont be smooth transition.

Really - not the case with the former E Asian "tiger" economies like S Korea, Taiwan etc.

You much rather have democracy's than a developed BD it seems. AL had to destroy real democracy to develop the country the way they have done over the last 11 years.
It is interesting that a global economic report forecasts that BD will be 25th largest economy in the world by 2034 while Pakistan is at 50th position.

 

[mmr]

Really - not the case with the former E Asian "tiger" economies like S Korea, Taiwan etc.

You much rather have democracy's than a developed BD it seems.

Too early to tell. Let us wait until she leaves. I dont think she will resign before 2028. I am 100 percent she will not resign in 2023.
Bd growing 7 percent no big deal. Even bd government keep spending 8 to 9 percent of gdp on infrastructure bd will grow 7 percent for next 10 years. Do we need BAL for high growth? No we dont. Any other political party can do that.

 

[UKBengali]

Too early to tell. Let us wait until she leaves. I dont think she will resign before 2028. I am 100 percent she will not resign in 2023.
Bd growing 7 percent no big deal. Even bd government keep spending 8 to 9 percent of gdp on infrastructure bd will grow 7 percent for next 10 years. Do we need BAL for high growth? No we dont. Any other political party can do that.

The only other alternative is BNP and they did not add a single MW when they were last in between 2002-2007. The money set aside for power plants was literally stolen by BNP.
Without power the economy cannot grow and that is what happened a while back in Pakistan.
It is not true that BD growth is because of infrastructure spending - it is a mix of political stability, infrastructure spending and sensible economic policies.
I am not sure whether Hasina will be around after 2023(as she would be 75 then) but if she stays until 2028 that would be a good thing as by then BD would be much more developed country then.

 

[mmr]

The only other alternative is BNP and they did not add a single MW when they were last in between 2002-2007. The money set aside for power plants was literally stolen by BNP.
Without power the economy cannot grow and that is what happened a while back in Pakistan.
It is not true that BD growth is because of infrastructure spending - it is a mix of political stability, infrastructure spending and sensible economic policies.
I am not sure whether Hasina will be around after 2023(as she would be 75 then) but if she stays until 2028 that would be a good thing as by then BD would be much more developed country then.

Yes please bring that one mistake BNP made every time. Any time i say anything against BAL you guys will talk about electricity.

Trust me next BNP government will be lot more smart. Just look at dhaka mayor candidates of bnp. Both educated in usa..both younger generation and one of them went to Georgetown university in usa. Things have changed stop bringing past all the time.

 

[UKBengali]

Yes please bring that one mistake BNP made every time. Any time i say anything against BAL you guys will talk about electricity.

Trust me next BNP government will be lot more smart. Just look at dhaka mayor candidates of bnp. Both educated in usa..both younger generation and one of them went to Georgetown university in usa. Things have changed stop bringing past all the time.

Let us both hope 2028 is the date that Hasina goes then. By then BD population will be much wealthier and more educated and better able to handle real democracy.
Without Hasina and Khaleda around, BD can be run by competent technocrats from any party.

20 years of AL rule should set BD on an irreversible course of economic success.

 

[bd_4_ever]

I dont know any country. But i do know this when hasina leave there will be power vacuum and destabilization. She destroyed functional democracy. It wont be smooth transition.

I understand your concerns and they are genuine. But there are bunch of reasons why there would not likely be any power vacuum:

a) Bangladesh is a unitary state with 1 ethnicity bound by 1 religion. Any bloody tussle for power is highly unlikely here. If you take examples from around the globe, most of such issues happen in states divided by either religion or ethnicity, who have been marginalized while the 'authoritarian' government was in power. Bangladesh's case is not as such.

b) Terrorism is almost non-existent in Bangladesh. This could potentially have been another issue, just like ISIS in the middle east. However, courtesy of the zero-tolerance policy of our security forces and grass-root level awareness in our society, we don't have such problems. Hence, this is also not going to be an issue.

c) Normally, issues of power vacuum appear if global powers (such as US, Russia) have interest in your geo-political situation. This hasn't been the case for us, simply because we have a neutral foreign policy. We don't sent boots into any war, nor have we bought any of their strategic weapons under attached strings. Thus, they have no leverage neither interest in our politics. We are a small country who basically cleans up the mess made by these powers on a global level (ie. peacekeeping).

Having said that, there are also internal reasons that such situation is quite unlikely.

a) BNP's backbone is technically broken. Tareq is probably the only semblance of hope but it doesn't look like he will enter the country anytime soon. He can pull all the strings from UK but his lack of physical presence will not help BNP's cause. Khaleda is a gone case and even BNP activists dont consider her as a leader. You need balls of steel and resolve + brains to play politics in Bangladesh. Apparently, Khaleda lacks in all of that department. Brother @Atlas can add more here.

b) Hasina, whether she leaves in '23 or '28, will appoint a successor. She is smart and we all know that. She wont leave the position vacant for anyone to go fight over it. One small example has been the massive changes in the Cabinet this term. If you notice, she replaced most of the India-leaning veteran politicians with western educated, capitalist-minded folks. For people who deeply observation, this gives a significant sign for the future.

c) Bangladesh is not a law-less country. Power vacuum struggles appear in places where there is no civil order, rampant corruption, useless security forces and a failed system. This is not our case. Our people have food to eat, places to sleep, jobs to earn. This is a very good thing because lack of societal order/harmony are catalyzing forces behind power vacuum.

d) Our economy is not natural resource based. We dont have oil, uranium (probably a tiny reserve I heard long back) or any strategic resources that global powers vye for. I am pretty sure they are not bothered by Walton smartphones or Hilsha fishes. Hence, from an economic standpoint as well, we are quite covered.

Will it be a smooth transition or not, remains to be seen. But I strongly doubt that would be the case. Worst case, there would be some quarrels, some strikes, some cars burnt, some stones thrown for few weeks and things will calm down when people realize they need to go back to their jobs and start earning to fill their stomach. So don't worry too much about it. What is important right now is that we, as a nation, put ourselves into right trajectory. Once that is achieved, our people will have many reasons to not jeopardize this harmony.

 

[VikingRaider]

Brother @Atlas can add more here.

I only can add my one opinion here brother @bd_4_ever, and that is about democracy. Because you already provided a very good detail and I agree with it.

And now I am sure many people will be embarrassed after reading my message, because reality is actually sometimes quite embarrassing!

Democracy is not for subjects but for citizens. When our people will be evolved from "subject" to "citizen", only then democracy should be prevailed here.

People who have the mentality of subject, they do not deserve western democracy. Bangladeshi majority are very fond of hero/leader worship, and this culture is very harmful for democracy and it's real goal. When you introduce democracy to subjects, only their lords/leaders/kings will be beneficial. They will be felt more secured ,so Khaleda zia and Tareq Chora and their kind and will keep committing crimes more frequently than medieval age rulers, because their dynasty is more protected when subjects get the voting right.

Subjects feel bliss when their leader( who are supposed to be far superior to them ; who will not feel bliss if their idols directly speak to them?) show some sympathy and also come to direct interaction with them,specially in every 5 years,same as if any medieval noble came to subjects and said some kind words, and subject feel bliss and worthy!!

This theory is not only for BNP subjects , but very true for AL subjects ( both chetona and non chetona) too! All of the people are subjects to political leaders. Their alligence is more to their idols than to their country Bangladesh.

Now people will say that, if we need autocratic regime, then why the head will be Sheikh Hasina, why not others.

I will say that it's clear that Hasina has some common sense and leading capabilities and khaleda lacks everything. Khaleda zia is a mother to her children, wife to her husband, also very much egoistic, can not be closer to common people, love to distinguish herself from them who has lesser social status than herself ( of course I don't lame her as she was a gentleman's wife and it's natural for her that she will not interact outside her own circle, it's true for our society ) grassroots people ( apart from her own party people maybe), she is volatile, selfish, self centered and what not? in short she is a total family person with zero political quality.

Hasina is completely opposite to her.

So now about political vacuum after Hasina. Nah I don't think so, because Bangladeshi political fate is not on the hand of our politicians but secured in different hand, and of course it's not on the hand of India, contrary to popular belief.

The problem is Bangladeshi subjects ( so called citizens) can not thing beyond India and it's influence. Indeed in common politics ( that we see with bare eyes) has influence of India, but the real place is completely secured, if not Bangladesh would be turned to Somalia long ago.

But the problem is the subjects do not understand that, and they everytime love to spread the rumor about India, Pakistan, America bla bla bla. . . . . . Actually they can't think beyond it. And this India, America ghosts are more predominant in educated class ( psedu educated) , and who are extremely disappointed of the fate of Bangladesh because they are well brain washed by Western democracy and keep distance from rest of the society,politics are by default dirty for them ( for right reason).

So they feel bliss that since they are educated,so can't be wrong like illiterates , this causes more trouble and that is severe than the trouble caused by illiterate mass.

And finally I believe that the real power vacuum was created when Ershad was taken down too early. He should have given sometimes to build the society before introducing democracy to Bangladeshi subjects in 1991.

And if now Hasina will be replaced, the same vacuum will be created that was created in 1991.

BTW, do you observe the case of VP Nur? I think our psedu educated middle class ( who are completely isolated from mass) is not observing the case of DU. I am not saying that I found future leader in vp Nur, but if you carefully observe such student movement, you will see that they are representive of such class who are majority in Bangladesh and they will cross miles slowly, day by day.

You see where BNP can't stand on street and the students are just doing massacre from quota movement, to safe street movement, and now in DU case where vp Nur was beaten by BCL thugs.

Still educated middle class ( mostly shallow and isolated) will ignore everything and will perform chorus like, hay democracy, hay democracy!

They are too blind to see new dawn after a dark night due to their intuitive mind . And the dawn process actually had been started after 1/11 IMHO, as we saw major change after this incident.

So if you observe carefully, then I would say the country is moving towards the right direction, and their will be no power vaccum after Hasina. But indeed AL will be gone after Hasina, it's almost certain. But that doesn't mean that BNP will have any chance.

 

[mmr]

I only can add my one opinion here brother @bd_4_ever, and that is about democracy. Because you already provided a very good detail and I agree with it.

And now I am sure many people will be embarrassed after reading my message, because really is actually sometimes quite embarrassing!

Democracy is not for subjects but for citizens. When our people will be evolved from "subject" to "citizen", only then democracy should be prevailed here.

People who have the mentality of subject, they do not deserve western democracy. Bangladeshi majority are very fond of hero/leader worship, and this culture is very harmful for democracy and it's real goal. When you introduce democracy to subject, only their lords/leaders/kings will be beneficial. They will be felt more secured than Khaleda zia and Tareq Chora and will keep commuting crimes more frequently than medieval age rulers, because their dynasty is more protected when subjects get the voting right. Subjects feel bliss when their leader( who are supposed to be far superior to them ; who will not feel bliss if their idols directly speak to them?) show some sympathy and also come to direct interaction with them,specially in every 5 years,same as if any medieval noble came to subjects and said some kind words, and subject feel bliss and worthy!!

This theory is not only for BNP subjects , but very true for AL subjects ( both chetona and non chetona) too! All of the people are subjects to political leaders. Their alligence is more to their idols than to their country Bangladesh.

Now people will say that, if we need autocratic regime, then why the head will be Sheikh Hasina, why not others.

I will say that it's clear that Hasina has some common sense and leading capabilities and khaleda lacks everything. Khaleda zia is a mother to her children, wife to her husband, also very much egoistic, can not be closer to common people, love to distinguish herself from them who has lesser social status than herself ( of course I don't lame her as she was a gentleman's wife and it's natural for her that she will not interact outside her own circle, it's true for our society ) grassroots people ( apart from her own party people maybe), she is volatile, selfish, self centered and what not? in short she is a total family person with zero political quality.

Hasina is completely opposite to her.

So now about political vacuum after Hasina. Nah I don't think so, because Bangladeshi political fate is not on the hand of our politicians but secured in different hand, and of course it's not on the hand of India, contrary to popular belief.

The problem is Bangladeshi subjects ( so called citizens) can not thing beyond India and it's influence. Indeed in common politics ( that we see with bare eyes) has influence of India, but the real place is completely secured, if not Bangladesh would be turned to Somalia long ago.

But the problem is the subjects do not understand that, and they everytime love to spread the rumor about India, Pakistan, America bla bla bla. . . . . . Actually they can't think beyond it. And this India, America ghosts are more predominant in educated class ( psedu educated) , and who are extremely disappointed of the fate of Bangladesh because they are well brain washed by Western democracy and keep distance from rest of the society,politics are by default dirty for them ( for right reason).

So they feel bliss that since they are educated,so can't be wrong like illiterates , this causes more trouble and that is severe than the trouble caused by illiterate mass.

And finally I believe that the real power vacuum was created when Ershad was taken down too early. He should have given sometimes to build the society before introducing democracy to Bangladeshi subjects in 1991.

And if now Hasina will be replaced, the same vacuum will be created that was created in 1991.

BTW, do you observe the case of VP Nur? I think our psedu educated middle class ( who are completely isolated from mass) is not observing the case of DU. I am not saying that I found future leader in vp Nur, but if you carefully observe such student movement, you will see that they are representive of such class who are majority in Bangladesh and they will cross miles slowly, day by day.

You see where BNP can't stand on street and the students are just doing massacre from quota movement, to safe street movement, and now in DU case where vp Nur was beaten by BCL thugs.

Still educated middle class ( mostly shallow and isolated) will ignore everything and will perform chorus like, hay democracy, hay democracy!

They are too blind to see new dawn after a dark night due to their intuitive mind . And the dawn process actually had been started after 1/11 IMHO, as we saw major change after this incident.

So if you observe carefully, then I would say the country is moving towards the right direction, and their will be no power vaccum after Hasina. But indeed AL will be gone after Hasina, it's almost certain. But that doesn't mean that BNP will have any chance.

Your hate for bnp is endless. By the time hasina is gone BNP will taken over by young western educated leadership. Wait and see. Bnp will not go near jamat and other Islamic parties.

 

[VikingRaider]

Your hate for bnp is endless.

Not for BNP , but for it's leadership . In reality I prefer right winger politics to left winger . I just do not like to use the sentiment ( religious )as political tool, that BNP leadership did .

By the time hasina is gone BNP will taken over by young western educated leadership. Wait and see.

Then I will be the first one to vote for BNP/right wingers ( moderate ) . Just make Khaleda Zia and Tareq Zia out of politics , I have no issue with BNP .

Bnp will not go near jamat and other Islamic parties.

I actually have no problem with Islamic parties who are moral and can remain strict on their policy unlike Jamat, who give fatwa against democracy and woman leadership , and after few years they sit on a woman's lap and sit on power , and later create anarchy in the name of democracy . I call it hypocrisy and terrorism ( what they had done from 2013 to 2015 ) .

I really do not have any problem with other Islamic parties who do not have double standard like Jamati islam .

So if BNP or AL or any other party ( be it left or right , and with the same name or different name I do not care ) , I see no problem . In fact if you call it democracy then everyone should have a chance, other than Munafiqs who declared democracy and women leadership haram and later created anarchy for the so call;ed Haram democracy and under a haram leadership ( woman leader that is Haram according to their own fatwa ) .

 

[mmr]

Not for BNP , but for it's leadership . In reality I prefer right winger politics than left winger . I just do not like to use the sentiment as political tool, that BNP leadership did .


Then I will be the first to vote for BNP/right wingers ( moderate ) . Just make Khaleda Zia and Tareq Zia out of politics , I have no issue with BNP .

I actually have no problem with Islamic parties who are moral and can strict on their policy unlike Jamat, who give fatwa against democracy and woman leadership , and after few months they sit on a woman's lap and create anarchy to in the name of democracy . I call it hypocrisy and terrorism ( what they had done from 2013-2015 ) .

I really do not have any problem with other Islamic parties who do not have double standard like Jamati islam .

So if BNP or AL or any other party ( be it left or right , and with the same name or different name I do not care ) , I see no problem . In fact if you call it democracy then everyone should have a chance, other than Munafiqs who declared democracy and women leadership haram and later created anarchy for the so call;ed Haram democracy and under a haram leadership ( woman leader that is Haram according to their own fatwa ) .

Well i dont want BNP to do religion based politics. Politics and religion should always remain separate. But i hope BNP bring new leadership well they have to at this point.