The net reserve will have to be calculated according to the new formula prescribed by the IMF. According to the central bank data, Bangladesh will show a $19 billion-plus net reserve if the new formula is applied.
Every other person knows about the govt ill method of calculating the FE reserves. There is nothing new also about the $19 billion figure. As the IMF has the condition of making the FE reserves $24.4 billion in June this year, the GOB is acting on that.
Imports of unnecessary things have been reduced or stopped altogether. So, I personally think the FE reserves in BD will exceed $25 billion in June 2023. With it, the IMF will extend loans to BD. With the IMF action, many other institutions like WB or ADB will also provide loans for new projects.
This real $25 billion figure in June is great if one thinks the country has already done many megaprojects and will keep on paying back the loans with interest. Ours is not the total mismanagement of the economy when one thinks about how many great megaprojects have already been completed and how many more are ongoing.
The undergoing projects include Matarbari Deep Sea Port, Chittagong-Cox's Bazaar-Gumdhum railway line, Darshana-Khulna-Bhanga-Dhaka railway project over the Padma Bridge, the Jamuna Railway Bridge (5.1 km) by JICA, Elevated Expressway in Dhaka are only a few of the ongoing projects.
People do not have to be too pessimistic about FE reserves because our money is being invested in infrastructure construction. BD will have only $25 billion FE in June this year, but it has been spending more than $100 billion worth of money on infrastructure projects which will pay dividends after the constructions are completed.
Think of the Padma Bridge, it is giving us back Tk2.0 crore every day of the year and the amount will only increase year after year.
Note also that what the govt spends on projects is earned by the people. With new money in hand, some of the beneficiaries will spend/ invest in shops, houses, and industries and the economic pie will keep on getting larger.
BD only has a small and temporary FE problem that will go away only with time, especially when FDIs are materialized by Japan, Korea, India, and China. Their companies will provide dollars to buy local currency. So, BD gets dollars in this way.
BD will become a great economic power within the next 25 years. In the next few years, there will be virtually many billions of dollars of investment in industries by Japan, Korea, China, and India.
So, better we do not overlook the economic prospect that lies in the future only because the country has a temporary setback in terms of FE reserves.