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Washington’s doubling down on pro-India Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government ahead of the country’s December general elections militates against India’s interests in its backyard and has substantially increased both External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval’s workload when they were least expecting it.
India and the United States are backing rival political parties in election-bound Bangladesh underlining a sharp geo-strategic divergence among Quad allies in yet another nation in India’s periphery after Myanmar and Afghanistan.
In this scenario, one can’t help but ask: Has the Biden Administration become proactive because it has lost all confidence in India’s capabilities to counter China’s increasing presence in Bangladesh, leaving Uncle Sam with no other option but to pad up and come out to bat? Or is the US needling India for buying Russian oil?
India’s Hasina Preference
The Narendra Modi government wants Hasina to become the PM for a fourth straight term as she and her government have served India’s national interests well since 2009. But American pressure, especially the threat to cancel US visas of those obstructing free and fair elections backed by visits of top US officials, has tied down the unapologetically pro-India Hasina regime and raised the morale of the anti-India Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the even more anti-India Jamaat-e-Islami, which has connections with Pakistan.
The wind in the Opposition’s sails is not good news for New Delhi. It’s undermining India’s influence in Bangladesh and has placed obstacles in the path of our diplomatic and security establishments.
Bangladesh’s importance for India can’t be overemphasised. It is not a neighbouring country like Pakistan, Nepal or Bhutan – it’s much, much more than that. Let’s not forget that geographically Bangladesh is embedded “inside” India. Save for a short boundary with Myanmar and the waters of the Bay of Bengal in the south, Bangladesh is surrounded by as many as five Indian states – West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram – on all sides. In that sense, Bangladesh is indeed “inside” India, so to say.
Conversely, it can be said that India encircles Bangladesh territorially. Bangladesh’s domestic politics and governance naturally impacts India more than other country in the world – and certainly much, much more than the US which is continents and oceans away from Bangladesh.
Yet, the superpower that the Modi regime looks up to and loves to cosy up and even basks in its reflected glory, has intentionally waded into Bangladeshi waters, unnecessarily putting at risk India’s stakes in its zone of influence and generally making life difficult for New Delhi.
Opposition Gets A Breather
After the US threatened to sanction any Bangladeshi politician or official, including those in the election commission, judiciary, law enforcement agencies and armed forces, obstructing free and fair elections, the administration gave permission to the much-maligned Jamaat to hold its first public rally after 10 years.
The go-ahead was like a miracle. Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party was pounded and hounded for a decade. A court even revoked its registration as a political party. The Jamaat rubbed its eyes in disbelief when it got Dhaka metropolitan police permission to assemble for a political programme.
Subsequently, it was revealed that it was not an administrative but a “political” decision, making it abundantly clear that it was taken at the very top. Which means that US pressure tactics has shaken and softened up the Awami League leadership.
With US help, the hammered and browbeaten Opposition is reclaiming the democratic space from an authoritarian Hasina who pretends to be a Mahathir Mohamad and Lee Kwan Yew rolled in one to legitimise her repression.
US Undermining Indian Interests
India has excellent reasons to not be bothered by what Hasina does in her own country as long as she gives us what we want. But the US clearly doesn’t want a repetition of the rigged elections of 2014 and 2018 which have become an international benchmark of farcical polls. The US stance is deeply upsetting for New Delhi as it has the potential to bring about a regime change which is against our interests.
Last week, senior US officials spent four days in Bangladesh to exert even more pressure. State Department’s Uzra Zeya, Under Secretary for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights, and Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of South and Central Asia, held long meetings not only with the PM but with the Foreign, Home and Law ministers. It seemed more like a fact-finding mission than a diplomatic visit with the Americans talking to various cabinet ministers separately to get to the bottom of things and fix responsibility.
Before flying out, Zeya announced that US sanctions against the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) – Hasina’s militia for terrorizing the Opposition and critics – clamped in December 2021 won’t be lifted as they have produced documented results. Moreover, US officials extracted an assurance that the Draconian Digital Security Act will be rolled back. The overall US approach doesn’t augur well for India’s goals and interests in a country which New Delhi prioritizes over all other nations.
SNM Abdi is an independent journalist specializing in India’s foreign policy and domestic politics. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
