The IMF predicted a GDP of $561.9 by 2026 and a per capita of $3200. This was based on April 2021 projections. So before the 2nd wave took place, which had much more of an economic impact than the first.
This projection is perhaps more accurate, given the impact of the 2nd wave. Though it may also be a bit conservative.
It'll be a good achievement within the region. But nothing worth boasting about. It's a lot lower than what Vietnam and the even Philippines are right now today. And by 2026, Vietnam, which is predicted to grow slightly slower than BD, is predicted to have a per capita income of around $5500.
With regards to Pakistan, Imran Khan has made some positive moves. A gradual move away from the consumption-based economic bubble (which famously burst in 2017), and into manufacturing. Less emphasis on politically expedient (to win cheap votes) economic policies and stunts, more emphasis on the long term. It's a welcome change. However, there are a lot of fundamental underlying problems that need to be sorted out. And the solution doesn't have to be expensiive. Because Bangladesh started tackling them decades ago with very little resources.
1) Fix your dreadful education system. I don't care how many posh schools you have in Islamabad and Lahore. The overall picture is not a pretty one. Read ADB's report on your education system. It's pretty shocking.
2) Similar to (1), Pakistan has a shocking gender disparity in basic literacy, let alone education. The youth literacy rate (15-24) is 74%. But it's the gender disparity that's shocking. 80% male, 65% female. In Bangladesh, it's like 94% male and 96% female. This is why Bangladesh could utilize a much higher % of its population in the skilled and semi-skilled labour market. Bangladesh will end up eliminating illiteracy from its working-age population fairly soon. The next focus is education for a highly skilled workforce. Whether BAL mofo's can deliver on their bolshevik-like rhetoric is a separate matter. But at the least, Bangladesh sorted out the basics
3) Fix your urban-to-rural divide. Bangladesh prioritized bridging the urban-to-rural gap, at the expense of glamorizing some of its cities (or urban development in general). The rural-to-urban divide is one of the key barriers to growth, for developing countries
4) Have NGO's like BRAC, and be a lot more creative/innovative about sorting out your human development problem
5) Population control. The most backward village in Bangladesh has a lower fertility rate than metropolitan Islamabad
6) And get rid of the feudalistic system you have in place within your rural regions. Even East Pakistan got rid of feudalism before Bangladesh even existed. The feudal lords of your country literally benefit from the status quo, at the expense of everyone else
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