What's new

Bangladesh to be 25th most populated country by 2100: Study

DalalErMaNodi

BANNED
Joined
May 12, 2020
Messages
5,290
Reaction score
6
Country
Bangladesh
Location
Kuwait
All South Asian countries, except Pakistan, will face a decline in population by 2100

1603275504316.png


Bangladesh will be the 25th most populated country by 2100, with 81 million people, according to research by the University of Washington.

It will lose 48.2 percent of its population from 157 (160+) million in 2017 (2020). This decline is the highest in South Asia.

1603275580646.png


India will be the world's most populated country in 2100 with 1.09 billion people, the study said.


Currently, India has 1.3 billion people – second only to China (1.4bn). It is followed by: Nigeria (791m), China (732m), the US (336m), Pakistan (248m), and the Democratic Republic of Congo (246m).


All South Asian countries, except Pakistan, will face a decline in population by 2100. It will keep its fifth place in 2100 with a 16 percent increase from 214.29 million in 2017.


Bhutan will see its population fall by 19.8 percent from 0.96 million to 0.77 million.

Nepal will see the second-largest fall (39.5 percent) in population from 29.89 million to 18.09 million after Bangladesh.

The study was published on July 14 in the UK medical journal The Lancet.

Global population to peak in 44 years

The global population will peak in 44 years – at around 9.7 billion – before it starts to shrink again by 8.79 billion in 2100, the study said.

After 2064, the total global population will fall due to a decline in the number of children people are having.

The total fertility rate (TFR) of Bangladesh will drop to 1.19 which was 2.0 in 2017, but it is still 0.02 percentage points below the 2100 Sustainable Development Goals pace scenario.

On the other hand, the global total fertility rate was forecasted to be 1.66 in 2100 from 2.37 in 2017.

1603275607454.png


According to population experts, populations only grow or stay stable when women have an average of 2.1 children each – assuming no immigration or emigration occurs. Better education and contraception will stop this in the future because women will be able to work outside the home more.

According to the study, by 2050, 151 countries are forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR<2·1), and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level by 2100.

Some countries, including Japan, Thailand and Spain, were forecasted to have a population decline of greater than 50 percent from 2017 to 2100.

Lead researcher of the study Dr Christopher Murray said, "Continued global population growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world's population."

He also said that their work goes against the findings of the United Nations, which projects the population of the world will continue to grow for the rest of the century.

However, they acknowledged that the global population is likely to explode in the next 40 years, rising by more than two billion people.

Which economy will top the world in 2100?

The study also traced the economic consequences of population scenarios. The findings predicted that many of the world's top economies will remain powerful over the next 80 years, but there will be some reshuffling in the ranks.

China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the US was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098.

1603275637206.png


India will be the fourth largest economy in the world – in terms of total GDP by 2030 from its seventh position in 2017 – and will continue to remain in third position from 2050 to 2100.

By 2100, India was forecasted to still have the largest working-age population in the world, followed by: Nigeria, China, the US, and Pakistan.

Migration will be necessary

For many countries in other parts of Asia and in Europe, populations will shrink because birth rates are already low. In some countries, populations will drop by more than half.

In Japan, the researchers estimated the population will fall from around 128 million in 2017 to 60 million in 2100, a decline of 53 percent.

Some of the oldest countries will have to rely on immigration to make sure they have enough people to keep industries going, the scientists warned.

The research was done by a team of 24 scientists led by Dr Christopher Murray and Professor Stein Vollset from the University of Washington in Seattle.

The study forecasted population size from 2018 to 2100 in 195 countries. Mortality rate, fertility rate and migration were considered constant for each age, sex and location during a calendar year.





Source
 
.
I don't know about other countries, but I find Pew and many other organisations tend to be off the mark by a wide margin regarding Pakistan, I do not know why that is, but their figures just do not make sense.

Population growth rate in Pakistan stands at or just over 2.2% right now, The average growth rate between the previous two census points of 1998 to 2017 was around 2.4%. I remember reading many times in those years that Pakistan's population growth rate is 1.7% or 1.8%, always shown as less than 2%. I can only assume they work on extremely conservative assumptions regarding Pakistan, showing a lot less than the reality.

Applying the rule of 70, at the present 2.2% growth rate, any population would double in 32 years,
That would mean Pakistan's present population of 227 million should reach 454 million by 2052, if it continues at the same rate. There is no sign of an effective family planning program in Pakistan right now, even if we assume an effective programme is put into place this decade, it will take time to design and implement, so one has to assume its effectiveness won't kick-in till 2030s. That's most of the way into the 454 million projection.

Even if such a plan was put into place and was effective, Much of the 454 Million projection will be met, and, even after a populating planning programme that has been successful, and has managed to control the growth of population, the population still continues to grow, because of the higher percentage of the population consists of younger people, who continue to feed the growth.

SO, with a potential population of between 450 million to 500 million, that will not reach full zero growth until the 2050's ,60's or 2070's, does it really make sense that it will fall down to 248million by 2100. That projection by Pew regarding Pakistan much have been made in a fantasy bubble.
 
.
Man we gotta start educating our people to use some dam condoms lol , all these kids don't mean more money with their logic.

It's just people from villages with very low education who breed like rabbits
 
.
I don't know about other countries, but I find Pew and many other organisations tend to be off the mark by a wide margin regarding Pakistan, I do not know why that is, but their figures just do not make sense.

Population growth rate in Pakistan stands at or just over 2.2% right now, The average growth rate between the previous two census points of 1998 to 2017 was around 2.4%. I remember reading many times in those years that Pakistan's population growth rate is 1.7% or 1.8%, always shown as less than 2%. I can only assume they work on extremely conservative assumptions regarding Pakistan, showing a lot less than the reality.

Applying the rule of 70, at the present 2.2% growth rate, any population would double in 32 years,
That would mean Pakistan's present population of 227 million should reach 454 million by 2052, if it continues at the same rate. There is no sign of an effective family planning program in Pakistan right now, even if we assume an effective programme is put into place this decade, it will take time to design and implement, so one has to assume its effectiveness won't kick-in till 2030s. That's most of the way into the 454 million projection.

Even if such a plan was put into place and was effective, Much of the 454 Million projection will be met, and, even after a populating planning programme that has been successful, and has managed to control the growth of population, the population still continues to grow, because of the higher percentage of the population consists of younger people, who continue to feed the growth.

SO, with a potential population of between 450 million to 500 million, that will not reach full zero growth until the 2050's ,60's or 2070's, does it really make sense that it will fall down to 248million by 2100. That projection by Pew regarding Pakistan much have been made in a fantasy bubble.



What do you think will be Pakistans peak population and when will it peak ?



What is the state of family planning policies in Pakistan, do you think a rising population will ruin any chance of economic resurgence in Pakistan.


Man we gotta start educating our people to use some dam condoms lol , all these kids don't mean more money with their logic.

It's just people from villages with very low education who breed like rabbits




What you on about, our total fetility rate is 2.0, we will dip below 1.9 anyday now, we are currently at replacement levels.



Population is neither growing nor decreasing yet, in 2050, we will reach the precipice of our population pyramid and after that the fall in population will happen, more people dying than people being born.

We can't expedite the process of plateauing before 2050, without inducing negative effects on our demographic, our work is already complete, any adjustments now, will lead to RUIN.


We are a demographic miracle, so not sure what more you expect the government to do.




We are the global benchmark for family planning in a impoverished country. Infact, we're the only poor country, where family planning has succeeded in under a 4 decades.
 
. .
What do you think will be Pakistans peak population and when will it peak ?



What is the state of family planning policies in Pakistan, do you think a rising population will ruin any chance of economic resurgence in Pakistan.

It is very hard to make such a prediction, because there is no effective population planning programme in place, like you guys, you guys got the community involved, health workers and the religious class. It has been very effective.

In Pakistan, we haven't even started to make an effective plan, let alone judge its effectiveness. I am sure we have a policy document somewhere to show something is being done. But, something more is needed if they wish to actually control the population growth.

Personally, I do not view population control as linked to economic growth, certainly, it is a factor and it is a very important factor in decreasing poverty, but economic growth and decreasing poverty although are interlinked, they are not the same thing. Pakistan historically has had the highest population growth of all the countries in South Asia, but it also has had the highest economic growth in the region, till the 1990's.

I find people fail to recognize and evaluate properly, especially Pakistanis. Everyone and we ourselves blame this and that, but fail to recognise the obvious. The Afghan war, that has lasted nearly four decades has had the biggest role in Pakistan troubles. Stunted economic growth, effected political developments, fed growth of extremism and terrorism, most of the problems Pakistan has faced has been linked to that issue, rather than purely of Pakistan own making. Pakistan has just been try to make the best of the situation, and has made poor choices, but when you are stuck in a mess, the choices you make tend to be poor.

In 1947, Bangladesh had a population of around 42 million and Pakistan almost 34 Million, we could not feed ourselves, we could not produce enough. Right now with a population 227 million, Pakistan is self-sufficient. But the strange thing is, there are massive insufficiencies in the agricultural sector. Our per hectare production is a lot less than other comparable countries, so even if Pakistan did nothing, just bought its efficiencies to the level of similar countries, it would be a surplus country.

I very much think the landmass of Pakistan is capable of feeding a much larger population, just with efficiencies from techniques already available, and especially with future technical growth in agricultural technologies.

Sorry, it's become longer than I planned. Just to conclude, my own estimate is that Pakistans population will stabilise around 400 million. And, I have zero concerns about the population growth effecting economic developments in general, although I do think its about time we started getting serious on this issue.

We also fail to recognise that, right now this is fashionable, controlling population, when the negative effects of population control start being felt by most countries, some may benefit long term, but most won't. There will be a massive push for making babies, it has not happened yet, because the negative effects of population control are not being felt, once it becomes an issue like climate change, we will see priorities being changed. SO, the wild population reversal projections are just that, wild.
 
. . . . . . . . .
All South Asian countries, except Pakistan, will face a decline in population by 2100

View attachment 681332


Bangladesh will be the 25th most populated country by 2100, with 81 million people, according to research by the University of Washington.

It will lose 48.2 percent of its population from 157 (160+) million in 2017 (2020). This decline is the highest in South Asia.

View attachment 681333

India will be the world's most populated country in 2100 with 1.09 billion people, the study said.


Currently, India has 1.3 billion people – second only to China (1.4bn). It is followed by: Nigeria (791m), China (732m), the US (336m), Pakistan (248m), and the Democratic Republic of Congo (246m).


All South Asian countries, except Pakistan, will face a decline in population by 2100. It will keep its fifth place in 2100 with a 16 percent increase from 214.29 million in 2017.


Bhutan will see its population fall by 19.8 percent from 0.96 million to 0.77 million.

Nepal will see the second-largest fall (39.5 percent) in population from 29.89 million to 18.09 million after Bangladesh.

The study was published on July 14 in the UK medical journal The Lancet.

Global population to peak in 44 years

The global population will peak in 44 years – at around 9.7 billion – before it starts to shrink again by 8.79 billion in 2100, the study said.

After 2064, the total global population will fall due to a decline in the number of children people are having.

The total fertility rate (TFR) of Bangladesh will drop to 1.19 which was 2.0 in 2017, but it is still 0.02 percentage points below the 2100 Sustainable Development Goals pace scenario.

On the other hand, the global total fertility rate was forecasted to be 1.66 in 2100 from 2.37 in 2017.

View attachment 681335

According to population experts, populations only grow or stay stable when women have an average of 2.1 children each – assuming no immigration or emigration occurs. Better education and contraception will stop this in the future because women will be able to work outside the home more.

According to the study, by 2050, 151 countries are forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR<2·1), and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level by 2100.

Some countries, including Japan, Thailand and Spain, were forecasted to have a population decline of greater than 50 percent from 2017 to 2100.

Lead researcher of the study Dr Christopher Murray said, "Continued global population growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world's population."

He also said that their work goes against the findings of the United Nations, which projects the population of the world will continue to grow for the rest of the century.

However, they acknowledged that the global population is likely to explode in the next 40 years, rising by more than two billion people.

Which economy will top the world in 2100?

The study also traced the economic consequences of population scenarios. The findings predicted that many of the world's top economies will remain powerful over the next 80 years, but there will be some reshuffling in the ranks.

China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the US was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098.

View attachment 681336

India will be the fourth largest economy in the world – in terms of total GDP by 2030 from its seventh position in 2017 – and will continue to remain in third position from 2050 to 2100.

By 2100, India was forecasted to still have the largest working-age population in the world, followed by: Nigeria, China, the US, and Pakistan.

Migration will be necessary

For many countries in other parts of Asia and in Europe, populations will shrink because birth rates are already low. In some countries, populations will drop by more than half.

In Japan, the researchers estimated the population will fall from around 128 million in 2017 to 60 million in 2100, a decline of 53 percent.

Some of the oldest countries will have to rely on immigration to make sure they have enough people to keep industries going, the scientists warned.

The research was done by a team of 24 scientists led by Dr Christopher Murray and Professor Stein Vollset from the University of Washington in Seattle.

The study forecasted population size from 2018 to 2100 in 195 countries. Mortality rate, fertility rate and migration were considered constant for each age, sex and location during a calendar year.





Source
I will be 104 years old if I survive till 2100.
 
.

Pakistan Affairs Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom